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[donny2112]

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, January 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 27-December 31 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: January 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good               Bad
[360] 1000K        [360] 1.0 million
[360] 1,000,000    [360] 1.000.000
[360] 1000000      [360] - 1000000

Potential hardware impacting events in November:
It's December (see sales figures last year, for example)
3DS Mario Kart 7 - Dec. 4 (28 days)
360 Systems w/ $50/$75 Gift Card offers throughout the month
3DS Systems w/ $40/$50 Gift Card offers for a few weeks


November's Results - thanks to Road

Hardware

360 - 1.7 Million (+24%)
PS3 - ~900K (+70%)
WII - 860k (-32%)
3DS - 795k
NDS - 350k (-77%)

Nov-10 -> Dec-10 transition:

      Nov-10  Dec-10   % change
360    1.37m    1.86m  + 36%
NDS     1.5m    2.5m   + 67%
PS3     530K   1.21m   +128%
WII    1.27m    2.36m  + 86%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Edit:
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=457579
Makes NDS ~200K, WII ~1m (bomba, for reals), and 3DS ~1.5m. For reference, GBA's first Christmas was 1.7m. NDS's first two Christmases combined were 1.8m, but both were before DSLite, of course.

 

[Averon]

[360] 2,500,000
[3DS] 1,250,000
[NDS] 700,000
[PS3] 1,700,000
[WII] 1,100,000

 

[Dedication Through Light]

[360] 2250K
[3DS] 1670K
[NDS] 240K
[PS3] 1500K
[WII] 1150K

 

[baekshi]

[360] 1801k
[3DS] 911k
[NDS] 566k
[PS3] 1299k
[WII] 1111k

 

[jeremy1456]

[360] 2100k
[3DS] 1200k
[NDS] 500k
[PS3] 1100k
[WII] 1300k

 

[ASIS]

[360] 2,480,000
[3DS] 1,900,000
[NDS] 625,000
[PS3] 1,430,000
[WII] 1,250,000

 

[jeremy1456]

I think people are REALLY underestimating the power of Mario Kart.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

How much did DS do its first holiday month (or even the month with Mario Kart in the US?)

Though based on past history Ive usually been spot on with 3DS this year.

 

[alphaNoid]

[360] 2,300,000
[3DS] 880,000
[NDS] 540,000
[PS3] 1,500,000
[WII] 1,200,00

 

[Walshicus]

[360] 3,000,000
[3DS] 900,000
[NDS] 400,000
[PS3] 1,300,000
[WII] 1,300,000

 

[donny2112]

can I edit this post later or do I make a new one if I wanted to change later?

Please edit. The predictions aren't gathered until the deadline, so just edit your original post up until the cutoff time.

 

[MatthewB92]

[360] 2700K
[PS3] 1000K
[WII] 1300K
[3DS] 1600K
[NDS] 600k

 

[BurntPork]

Ha, everyone's scared to make a high prediction for 3DS! lol. Anything below 1 million would be a flop that puts Vita's second week to shame, imo.

[360] 2000k
[3DS] 1700k
[NDS] 250k
[PS3] 1450k
[WII] 1300k

I really hope me 3DS prediction turns out to be way too low, though. It needs at least 1.8M to have a bright future.

Edit: Considering Nintendo PR.

 

[farscape82]

[360] 2340K
[3DS] 1720K
[NDS] 380K
[PS3] 1390K
[WII] 1150K

 

[Saiyar]

[360] 3000K
[3DS] 1600K
[NDS] 500K
[PS3] 1500K
[WII] 1250K

 

[Goldmund]

On my way into the top-50s.

[360] 2,400,000
[3DS] 1,600,000
[NDS] 220,000
[PS3] 1,500,000
[WII] 1,100,000

 

[Fantastical]

[360] 2330k
[3DS] 1590k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 1500k
[WII] 1200k

 

[Gadfly]

Applying the Nov->Dec changes from last year to this year's Nov numbers:

[360] 2,300,000
[3DS] 1,330,000
[NDS] 580,000
[PS3] 2,050,000
[WII] 1,150,000

 

[Thoraxes]

[360] 1,500,000
[3DS] 927,000
[NDS] 346,000
[PS3] 1,237,000
[WII] 879,000

 

[Madao]

[360] 2400k
[3DS] 2000k
[NDS] 600k
[PS3] 1400k
[WII] 1800k

 

[Walshicus]

[360] 1,500,000
[3DS] 927,000
[NDS] 346,000
[PS3] 1,237,000
[WII] 879,000

You think 360's going to do 200k less in December than it did in November, despite the fact that last year there was a ~35% Month on Month increase?

 

[BurntPork]

You think 360's going to do 200k less in December than it did in November, despite the fact that last year there was a ~35% Month on Month increase?

The only one of those predictions that makes any sense is the PS3 one, so he's obviously using different logic than you are.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I think people are REALLY underestimating the power of Mario Kart.

[360] 2100k
[3DS] 1200k
[NDS] 500k
[PS3] 1100k
[WII] 1300k

I don't get it. You basically have the 3DS with a normal to below normal Nov-Dec increase which seems to suggest that Mario Kart will have no power.

 

[duk]

i predict the world will end in 2012 (if 3DS sells for less than 1.5m)

 

[Thoraxes]

Nobody ever said mine had to make sense to anyone >.>

 

[jvm]

In case it's useful to informing anyone, here are the Rentrak data reported for the last few weeks. I'll be keeping this spreadsheet public and hopefully keeping up with the weekly data as it is reported.

I don't know how reliable it is. If people feel it is demonstrably unreliable, I will remove the public link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdEpqZ24teUl0ZzFwYmZuSlF4dEN0Qnc

I expect the last week in December to reported in the next couple of days on this page:
http://rentrak.com/section/corporat...op_10_charts.html?ga=videogame#videogame-head

 

[jeremy1456]

I don't get it. You basically have the 3DS with a normal to below normal Nov-Dec increase which seems to suggest that Mario Kart will have no power.

Note: Up to my post people were generally guessing 3DS at less than 100k.

 

[bigtroyjon]

In case it's useful to informing anyone, here are the Rentrak data reported for the last few weeks. I'll be keeping this spreadsheet public and hopefully keeping up with the weekly data as it is reported.

I don't know how reliable it is. If people feel it is demonstrably unreliable, I will remove the public link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdEpqZ24teUl0ZzFwYmZuSlF4dEN0Qnc

I expect the last week in December to reported in the next couple of days on this page:
http://rentrak.com/section/corporat...op_10_charts.html?ga=videogame#videogame-head

Still waiting on the second to last week also. They put up the dvd stuff so I wonder if there is something about games that's causing them to hold back that info.

 

[pramath]

[360] 2200k
[3DS] 1700k
[NDS] 800k
[PS3] 1100k
[WII] 900k

 

[Fantastical]

Ocarina of Time 3D selling more than Skyward Sword the latest week Rentrak has updated?

 

[Duxxy3]

[360] 2100k
[3DS] 1500k
[NDS] 500k
[PS3] 1700k
[WII] 1000k

 

[jvm]

Still waiting on the second to last week also. They put up the dvd stuff so I wonder if there is something about games that's causing them to hold back that info.

I've noticed that they send out the email notice on movies and the video game chart gets updated several days later. Not sure what that's all about. *shrug*

 

[Jokeropia]

[360] 2300k
[3DS] 1850k
[NDS] 700k
[PS3] 1500k
[WII] 1550k

 

[andy_lhc]

[360] 2290k
[3DS] 1600k
[NDS] 400k
[PS3] 1500k
[WII] 1200k

 

[BurntPork]

Ocarina of Time 3D selling more than Skyward Sword the latest week Rentrak has updated?

Well, the 3DS bundle makes that kinda possible, especially if SS ended up flopping like it did everywhere else.

[360] 2.3m
[3DS] 2m
[NDS] 700k
[PS3] 1.5m
[WII] 1.8m

You didn't format it correctly. 2.3m should be 2300k, etc.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

[360] 2800k
[3DS] 2200k
[NDS] 600k
[PS3] 1140k
[WII] 1240k

 

[bigtroyjon]

I've noticed that they send out the email notice on movies and the video game chart gets updated several days later. Not sure what that's all about. *shrug*

The week before the video game chart was updated at the same time as the dvd charts. Don't know about previous weeks or emails but it's odd to me that the video game stuff would be delayed since it would be using the same POS data as the dvds.

Hopefully not a case of someone requesting they stop providing the video game data, even without numbers it's informative and interesting. Maybe it's just the video game guy being on vacation.

 

[nextgeneration]

[360] 2400k
[3DS] 1500k
[NDS] 500k
[PS3] 1300k
[WII] 1200k

 

[donny2112]

I'll be keeping this spreadsheet public and hopefully keeping up with the weekly data as it is reported.

Thanks!

You didn't format it correctly. 2.3m should be 2300k, etc.

Yep. Thanks, BurntPork!

 

[Fantastical]

Well, the 3DS bundle makes that kinda possible, especially if SS ended up flopping like it did everywhere else.

Are those bundles still available? It was for the week of Dec 11 - Dec 17.

EDIT: Oh I guess they still are. I was thinking they were only available for a week or something.

 

[ShdwDrake]

[360] 1400k
[3DS] 800k
[NDS] 400k
[PS3] 900k
[WII] 800k

 

[CrankyKong]

[360] 2600k
[3DS] 1580k
[NDS] 280k
[PS3] 1500k
[WII] 1150k

 

[BurntPork]

Are those bundles still available? It was for the week of Dec 11 - Dec 17.

EDIT: Oh I guess they still are. I was thinking they were only available for a week or something.

Yeah, some GameStops still have them. (It was GameStop and Best Buy exclusive, but Best Buy only got stock for Black Friday and basically sold out of all of it that weekend.) My mother bought it for me the week before Christmas.

[360] 1400k
[3DS] 800k
[NDS] 400k
[PS3] 900k
[WII] 800k

*scratches head*

 

[CrazyDude]

Well, the 3DS bundle makes that kinda possible, especially if SS ended up flopping like it did everywhere else.



You didn't format it correctly. 2.3m should be 2300k, etc.

Skyward Sword Sold more than Twilight Princess in it's first month in NA.

 

[BurntPork]

Skyward Sword Sold more than Twilight Princess in it's first month in NA.

Selling fast doesn't mean that the sales remained consistent.

 

[Syphon Filter]

[360] 2600K
[3DS] 1200K
[NDS] 900K
[PS3] 1400K
[WII] 1300K

 

[CitizenCope]

I always thought Nov>Dec. 360 with another 2-3 mil sold? Wow!!!

 

[Truth101]

I always thought Nov>Dec. 360 with another 2-3 mil sold? Wow!!!

Never.

 

[CitizenCope]

Never.

Jeesh & I follow these things. My bad. Gonna be nuts. Nephews who were brought up on Wii all got 360's with MW3 whether they liked it or not.

 

[BLaZiN PRopHeT]

[360] 2500k
[3DS] 1450k
[NDS] 300k
[PS3] 1350k
[WII] 1100k