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May 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes June 11 (Monday after E3)

donny2112

Member
What is it?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, June 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 29-May 26 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: June 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

IMPORTANT: NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance to April compared to previous years. Have fun guessing! :D

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000


Potential hardware impacting events in May:
DSi/DSiXL price drop - $99/$129 (May 20; could impact 3DS sales?)
Purple 3DS (New color) - May 20


April's Results - thanks to Nirolak, miladesn, and jvm

Hardware:

Xbox 360 - 236K (-20.5%) (Best selling console this month)
going by the YTD data here http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=37329128

(calculations; see original post)

PS3 April
~173k

Wii April
~92k
Based on bits of info, my GUESSES are:

3DS = 125K
PSV = 75K

Those are completely unofficial, and probably have a good ±5K in them. They are just what I said: guesses.
April 2011 NPD thread
May 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 225k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 160k
[PSV] 65k
[WII] 75k


This is irrelevant to the predictions, but I also think Max Payne 3 will sell a good bit (100-200k) less than LA Noire sold in its first month.
 

donny2112

Member
Won't close until after E3, but with E3 week being so hectic, may be a good idea to go ahead and get your predictions in.
 

donny2112

Member
Halo 4 Nov 6 and CoD:BOII Nov 13 is really interesting. Halo 2, 3, and Reach all did ~3.3m first month in NPD, and CoD has been doing well over 6m the last few times first month in NPD (combined systems, as we don't get separated numbers mostly :( ). Can this slouching U.S. game environment handle back-to-back >3m game launches? If Wii U launches into that, whoa. May try to do some prediction thread on that combo, as we're likely to get the combined platform/SKU numbers for all these in November. Hmmm...
 

Nemo

Will Eat Your Children
[360] 238K
[PS3] 155K
[3DS] 103K
[WII] 93K
[PSV] 55K

Maybe it's me, but predicting's not so fun anymore.
 
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