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[SmokedMeat]

SIAP. This chart doesn't make it look so bad...like...at all.

Until you consider that many of those systems were VERY difficult to find in stores three months (and longer) after launch.
The U was readily available day one, and has been widely available everywhere since.

 

[Gahiggidy]

Not to the same extent as Nintendo.

Their system are making a clear generational leap. People won't mistake a PS3 for a PS4.

The leap from Wii > Wii U is a hell of a lot bigger than PS3 > PS4. So this doesn't make sense... or are you assuming many consumers view Wii to be in the same ballpark, graphically, as PS360?

 

[udivision]

If you forget the fact that the 360/PS2/Wii were severely supply constrained, sure.

The Wii U was severely demand restrained.

 

[shinnn]

Not on a weekly average basis.

Oh right. Now it makes sense.

 

[Pie and Beans]

All that chart shows is the Nintendo core rushing to get the console giving it a good front load and then the bottom dropping out of the market entirely. Now when you're going to be facing February, March, April with THAT release calendar and no price drop, that WiiU bar will be frozen in place as the X360 and PS3 continued their normal growth and got over whatever supply issues/gargantuan starting prices.

 

[CTLance]

I just found this thread and reached page 3 (WiiU 11k/week in 5-week January).

That is an appalling number. Holy crap.

(src)(story)

 

[Totobeni]

So about DmC, if that ~200k sales figure is true we have this:

....

so does this mean we'll get in-house Japanese developed DMC5 next time? because that will be sweet.

 

[GhaleonEB]

SIAP. This chart doesn't make it look so bad...like...at all.

A chart that showed the trend lines for each month would be more illustrative.

 

[Tallshortman]

And this is the kind of stuff that meant nothing to him. I keep trying to explain this to enthusiast gamers but we're the only ones who pay attention to these things. All the average person cares about for the most part is games and price and I couldn't explain to him how games would be any different with a pad controller or why the console is so expensive when compared to a Wii.

This is something that Sony and MS need to be concerned about too.

No, people have eyes. You don't need to be an enthusiast to use your vision and see clear leaps in technology. Previous consoles were hyped by graphics and it will remain an easy way to show the average consumer what your new product is about.

 

[AniHawk]

Panic mode Nintendo for the 3DS wasn't Monster Hunter 4, it was the rushed and feature incomplete Mario Kart 7.

this is the frustrating part. the gamecube is panic mode nintendo, where the wind waker was rushed to the market, metroid prime was rushed to the market (at the expense of every single other retro game), and super mario sunshine was rushed to the market. it was at half the launch price in less than two years after launch (actually a good thing for consumers, but bad for the early adopters). and yet people long for that era like it's the good ol' days.

bamco was probably told to kick shit into high gear for smash bros. the mario kart team might be getting some assistance from retro or monster or someone with racing experience (maybe even bamco). super mario is probably on its original schedule, but now there's no room for fucking up. tww hd is happening. animal crossing just probably got put on the fast-track too.

and these are the games nintendo should have hit within their first year. xenoblade 2 as a launch title or something that hit within 2013 would have been amazing. mario could have waited until the holidays, and maybe mario kart could have too. but bayonetta 2? tww hd? sprinkle that in through the early parts of the year. hell, tell people you actually have it at your e3 conference. build some hype. or at least act like you're interested in your own console. the last two e3s were like watching a rerun of the 2003 gamecube connectivity one.

A chart that showed the trend lines for each month would be more illustrative.

i am assuming it'll be under 30k in february (slower month, no software releases, fewer weeks). not hard to imagine it dropping from 11k a week to 7k a week. hell, we might see the vita sell about as well.

 

[ascii42]

SIAP. This chart doesn't make it look so bad...like...at all.

The trouble is that doesn't tell much. XBOX360 was supply constrained. WiiU is not, and January's sales indicate very poor forward momementum.

 

[FourMyle]

Anyone remember that hand drawn thing from last console launch with all the consoles as racecars and the Wii vehicle is over heating, I think the Xbox 360 bros are wearing sunglasses?

We should update that.

No need for much editing, just put a U next to the Wii.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'm not worried for WiiU yet. It's more of less following the 3DS pattern.

1) A bit expensive and no must have titles at launch (Although Nintendoland is IMO)
2) A bit of product confusion (Wii -> Wii U/DS -> 3DS)
3) Fukushima/Economical crisis

But then,

4) Ocarina Of Time 3D <-> Pikmin 3/The Wonderful 101
5) Price drop
6) Mario Kart 7/Super Mario 3D Land <-> Mario Kart U/Mario 3D U for the holidays.

Boom.

3DS price dropped thirty-two percent in four months.

Let's drop the deluxe Wii U to $249 before summer. That's less of a price drop than the 3DS. It's a good start. Either cut the basic version to $209 or just drop it.

Give early adopters free downloads with a retail value of at least $120.

 

[JoeM86]

Unless if you read the article where jvm astutely points out the 360 suffered shortages and the PS3 cost $100+ more.

Mitigating circumstances, you say? It's not like the Wii U came out in a global recession...

I'm not saying these numbers are bad, but you can't use mitigating factors for one without including them for everything

 

[cosmicblizzard]

Is it wrong to think Wii U will do better in February based on Nintendo Direct? I mean, I'm sure there are people that buy consoles on potential (hell, that's pretty much what launch buyers do).

 

[Saint Gregory]

Software - every single multiplatform will look and work superbly to ps3/x360 versions serving as a reason to upgrade.

You can tell the difference and that means enought to you to upgrade at a higher price but not everyone sees what an enthusiast gamer sees. We've watched this play out every single generation yet it's like we hit the reset button and forget when a new one starts.

It matters a lot less when you have an old, but still viable system on the market. If a PS3 owner doesn't go for a PS4 right away, Sony can still sell them games, and maybe they'll jump in when it's cheaper. But when you have a dead system (Wii), and a new one that isn't selling (Wii U), then you're not selling games to anyone. Your customers have probably moved on.

You seem to understand exactly what I'm saying. I don't think that either the PS4 or 720 will struggle this badly because they will have support and dry spells like the Wii U is experiencing are unlikely but there is concern to be had about introducing new higher priced consoles into a market that's still this active which Nintendo is finding out the hard way.

No, people have eyes. You don't need to be an enthusiast to use your vision and see clear leaps in technology. Previous consoles were hyped by graphics and it will remain an easy way to show the average consumer what your new product is about.

People didn't have eyes from 2006-2009? This only happened a few years ago!

Edit: Actually, let me state this more clearly; people can see but they don't care enough to pay a premium over what's available now. See: HDTVs up until a couple of years ago.

 

[Pachterballs]

they have a lot of software planned for the 2H of 2013.

Ummm hate to bust ur bubble but there's only a handful of games. A lot of titles a TDB as they're not ready.

The wiiU game drought will continue into 2014.

Also the Nintendo direct was an admission that they had no real idea when games will be ready. Show some titles and a port....

 

[Pachterballs]

Is it wrong to think Wii U will do better in February based on Nintendo Direct? I mean, I'm sure there are people that buy consoles on potential (hell, that's pretty much what launch buyers do).

It's 4 weeks. It will do worse than jans NPD.

 

[Taurus]

Ummm hate to bust ur bubble but there's only a handful of games. A lot of titles a TDB as they're not ready.

The wiiU game drought will continue into 2014.

GTFO. Now you are being just ridiculous. Wii U's holiday line-up for 2013 will be awesome.

 

[Gahiggidy]

3DS price dropped thirty-two percent in four months.

Let's drop the deluxe Wii U to $249 before summer. That's less of a price drop than the 3DS. It's a good start. Either cut the basic version to $209 or just drop it.

.

With or without pack-in game?

 

[Rhindle]

All that chart shows is the Nintendo core rushing to get the console giving it a good front load and then the bottom dropping out of the market entirely. Now when you're going to be facing February, March, April with THAT release calendar and no price drop, that WiiU bar will be frozen in place as the X360 and PS3 continued their normal growth and got over whatever supply issues/gargantuan starting prices.

I'm just surprised that the "Nintendo core" is so small.

You have to assume that a good chunk of the Nov/Dec sales were holiday gifts. So the "Nintendo core" willing to buy a Nintendo console at launch is something in the 500K range. Tiny compared to what it probably was a decade ago. Nintendo did its level best to corrode its base during the Wii years.

 

[Baron_Calamity]

Yeah, not all is lost yet. Wii U is going to be on a rocky road for the next few months, but I wouldn't count on Nintendo knee jerking and deviating from their plans quite yet.

Yeah Nintendo would never do that...

Out 5 months and only sold 800k units, got the axe.

 

[jvm]

A chart that showed the trend lines for each month would be more illustrative.

I think seven jaggy lines would be pretty difficult to decipher. That's part of why I did it this way. :|

 

[AniHawk]

With or without pack-in game?

$249.99 with nsmbu would be extremely helpful. nintendo won't do it because they'd lose on an insane amount of cash and miss their income goals by a lot, but it might be a risk to take in the short run to stay alive in the long run.

nintendoland won't do anything because it's a confusing mess.

Yeah Nintendo would never do that...

Out 5 months and only sold 800k units, got the axe.

while the vb was slated to replace the game boy, the game boy was still around, still had games coming out, and was getting revisions and colors. that next year, pokemon came out and revived the game boy line in full force.

there's nothing like that with the wii u. if nintendo axes the system, they'll be sitting with no console being supported for a year while they work on its successor, much like the situation with sega and the saturn.

 

[Pachterballs]

GTFO. Now you are being just ridiculous. Wii U's holiday line-up for 2013 will be awesome.

What's the lineup? It's a bunch of TBD, which might not might not be released/ready. X won't be 2013

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Ummm hate to bust ur bubble but there's only a handful of games. A lot of titles a TDB as they're not ready.

The wiiU game drought will continue into 2014.

Pretty much everything mentioned at the Wii U Direct except X, Smash Bros, SMTxFE and that new Zelda will be out by the end of 2013 imo. Plus other stuff (Retro game).

 

[jcm]

3DS price dropped thirty-two percent in four months.

Let's drop the deluxe Wii U to $249 before summer. That's less of a price drop than the 3DS. It's a good start. Either cut the basic version to $209 or just drop it.

Give early adopters free downloads with a retail value of at least $120.

Nintendo just promised a billion dollar operating profit next FY. Eating $100 a unit for 10M units consumes the entire billion.

 

[Fabrik]

Is it wrong to think Wii U will do better in February based on Nintendo Direct? I mean, I'm sure there are people that buy consoles on potential (hell, that's pretty much what launch buyers do).

We know now that game announcements with no immediate release dates don't have any impact on sales. The weekly Japanese sales for Wii U haven't changed at all for the last 2 weeks.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Is it wrong to think Wii U will do better in February based on Nintendo Direct? I mean, I'm sure there are people that buy consoles on potential (hell, that's pretty much what launch buyers do).

I highly doubt many sane persons would be willing to shell out for the console now so they can play Mario Kart in November.

 

[Pie and Beans]

GTFO. Now you are being just ridiculous. Wii U's holiday line-up for 2013 will be awesome.

Is WiiU's holiday lineup even going to look vaguely competitive to PS3 and X360's Q1/Q2 lineup? Nevermind awesome enough to somehow stand out against 4x-5x more powerful consoles and the true beginning of next gen. While Sony and Microsoft are hurling their biggest efforts yet into the fray, Nintendo will be trying to play off of more Mario games for the mass market again. Mario fatigue is becoming a very real and going concern for Nintendo's prospects outside of Japan.

 

[1-D_FTW]

If you forget the fact that the 360/PS2/Wii were severely supply constrained, sure.

Or ignore the fact that somewhere in December, Nintendo ran out of early adopters to sell to. And January was the first month to reflect that all that previous low lying fruit had already been picked. 57k in 5 weeks when you haven't even hit one million is unspinnable.

 

[faridmon]

....

so does this mean we'll get in-house Japanese developed DMC5 next time? because that will be sweet.

Or no DMC at all.

 

[Gahiggidy]

What's a little nuts is it appears Wii U is selling better in JPN than the US. I mean... has that ever happened before with a Nintendo home console?

 

[ASIS]

3DS price dropped thirty-two percent in four months.

Let's drop the deluxe Wii U to $249 before summer. That's less of a price drop than the 3DS. It's a good start. Either cut the basic version to $209 or just drop it.

Give early adopters free downloads with a retail value of at least $120.

A price drop is almost completely out of the question.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

What's a little nuts is it appears Wii U is selling better in JPN than the US. I mean... has that ever happened before with a Nintendo home console?

PC Engine, Saturn, PSP, 3DS.

 

[The Chef]

Well that puts things in perspective. Really uncertain road ahead

Omg that graph. That is unreal.

 

[GitarooMan]

PC Engine, Saturn, PSP, 3DS.

You might want to reread the post.

 

[AniHawk]

You might want to reread the post.

those were nintendo consoles.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

If Nintendo ever plans to make another system again, another ambassador effort on the Wii U is going to cripple its successor (and every Nintendo system after) out of the gate regardless of what it does or doesn't have.

It sets the precedent that the 3DS is not a one-off and they'll drop the price in six months every time.

Though, it is increasingly probable they will have no other choice.

 

[faridmon]

What's a little nuts is it appears Wii U is selling better in JPN than the US. I mean... has that ever happened before with a Nintendo home console?

Wsan't Famicom and S. Famicom more successful in Japan than in teh west?

 

[famfrit]

I was looking up some old figures and Dreamcast's first January was just over 60k. Then in May it dropped to 34k and had a horrid couple of months before a price drop landed in August, where it had a healthier year of all over 100k.

Gamecube didn't get to those dizzy lows until May '05 of 50k units. 3 and a half years after it launched.

Nothing but terrible figures for the WiiU and Vita. A price drop will bump sales in the short term but will do absolutely nothing for them in the long. They need a big fresh marketing push coupled by a price drop and actual good releases. Neither have anything big on the horizon so it's going to be a troubled year for the 2 with no real end to it all in sight. Sure Nintendo might have Mario Kart at the end of the year and with a price drop should see a buoyant Xmas outlook but again it just isn't enough. Especially as the market will have 2 new consoles as well as even cheaper PS3/360 machines out there to grab the money.

WiiU is in a very tough place. It's just stuck in the middle with nowhere to get out. But at least it'll be somewhere in the middle of it all. Vita really doesn't have even that outlook.

plus, market size is bigger now in 2013 than 2000-2005.

 

[razgriz417]

....

so does this mean we'll get in-house Japanese developed DMC5 next time? because that will be sweet.

with the way capcom does things, dont' expect DMC5 for a loooong time

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

You might want to reread the post.

Ack!

FDS & 64DD? :3

 

[Roman]

PC Engine, Saturn, PSP, 3DS.

Nintendo sure has a broad portfolio.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Wsan't Famicom and S. Famicom more successful in Japan than in teh west?

I was a little surprised too. But no. He was right. It's never happened before.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles#Regions

 

[NeonZ]

I'm just surprised that the "Nintendo core" is so small.

You have to assume that a good chunk of the Nov/Dec sales were holiday gifts. So the "Nintendo core" willing to buy a Nintendo console at launch is something in the 500K range. Tiny compared to what it probably was a decade ago. Nintendo did its level best to corrode its base during the Wii years.

The main issue is that the Wii U really didn't launch with titles for the "Nintendo Core". I'd likely have bought a Wii U day 1 even if the only game there were the next Smash Bros, but, as it stands, I still haven't even gotten one. You'd likely see people who'd act similarly with Zelda, or even 3d Mario. A NSMB identical to the previous titles, at least as someone who hasn't seen it outside of videos, and Nintendo Land were just a bad combination. Nintendo Land ended up appealing to few, and a NSMB that doesn't easily show itself as "new" isn't enough to make people grab a new console even if the game sells well to people who have it.

 

[AniHawk]

If Nintendo ever plans to make another system again, another ambassador effort on the Wii U is going to cripple its successor (and every Nintendo system after) out of the gate regardless of what it does or doesn't have.

It sets the precedent that the 3DS is not a one-off and they'll drop the price in six months every time.

Though, it is increasingly probable they will have no other choice.

to be fair, it's what they did with the ds and the gamecube, and people didn't expect it of the wii. people actually wanted the wii.

 

[TAS]

So if/when Orbis and Durango fail to sell more in their first 3 months, will we have the same doom and gloom meme here on GAF?

 

[Vampirolol]

to be fair, it's what they did with the ds and the gamecube, and people didn't expect it of the wii. people actually wanted the wii.

But many, many gamers are waiting for a price drop.

 

[faridmon]

I was a little surprised too. But no. He was right. It's never happened before.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles#Regions

Well, I'll be damned :/