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As bad as things seem for the Wii U, I still think NIntendo can turn things around
- Thread starter Yuripaw
- Start date
You're right, but only in the same way that Michael Jackson's "Dangerous" was a terrible seller compared to "Thriller". It's only true in a relative sense. Zelda and Metroid are franchises that actually stir the passions of the hardcore gamer, the one who is willing to spend big bucks on your console at launch rather than wait for a price drop. A new HD 3D Zelda COULD HAVE BEEN an important game driving EARLY WiiU sales if it had been prepped for release in 2012 or 2013. Same for a new HD Metroid. But, for whatever reason, Nintendo focused on different properties, believing more in the casual gamer market, to their detriment. It's too late now, and while they have an obligation to continue support for the console at least through 2014 and until whatever's next for them is ready, they'd do well to remember that those 1-2 million Zelda and Metroid fans are also your early adopters.
Non-exhaustive list of Nintendo's problems:
- Marketing. Seems like a Wii peripheral due to their marketing (heavy use of the Wii ___ brand last gen, "upgrade your Wii", etc).
- Packs in an expansive controller that is unappealing and completely underused, even by Nintendo itself.
- The audience that made Wii a success does not care for spending another $300 on a product they are not normally big consumers of (home consoles), especially when its controller and general philosophy is a complete U-turn from what made the Wii appealing to them.
- Completely oblivious to general tech/services trends that are expected these days, and still does not care for 3rd parties, which made or broke consoles' success for decades - Wii excluded, but that one exception does not make it a rule.
- Ridiculous software drought, too many platformers, poor (zero?) focus on new IP.
- One whole gen-step behind competition in terms of hardware and services.
The last one is a problem, the whole "but graphics don't matter" is a poor argument. Yes, games can be great without a crapload of fancy new effects and increases in resolution etc, but the core market, the one that buys news consoles at a high price and loads of games, does care.
This is an additional problem in relation to 3rd party development. The days of 3rd party exclusives are over. Devs/publishers won't bother too much about one platform when 3 other ones makes multiplatform development a lot easier. Especially when their titles have historically been performing poorly on Nintendo consoles.
"Let's try and fix this problem" is not going to turn the WiiU around. It's got too many issues for this, many of them being usual mistakes that Nintendo still hasn't learned to acknowledge, let alone try to adress.
- Marketing. Seems like a Wii peripheral due to their marketing (heavy use of the Wii ___ brand last gen, "upgrade your Wii", etc).
- Packs in an expansive controller that is unappealing and completely underused, even by Nintendo itself.
- The audience that made Wii a success does not care for spending another $300 on a product they are not normally big consumers of (home consoles), especially when its controller and general philosophy is a complete U-turn from what made the Wii appealing to them.
- Completely oblivious to general tech/services trends that are expected these days, and still does not care for 3rd parties, which made or broke consoles' success for decades - Wii excluded, but that one exception does not make it a rule.
- Ridiculous software drought, too many platformers, poor (zero?) focus on new IP.
- One whole gen-step behind competition in terms of hardware and services.
The last one is a problem, the whole "but graphics don't matter" is a poor argument. Yes, games can be great without a crapload of fancy new effects and increases in resolution etc, but the core market, the one that buys news consoles at a high price and loads of games, does care.
This is an additional problem in relation to 3rd party development. The days of 3rd party exclusives are over. Devs/publishers won't bother too much about one platform when 3 other ones makes multiplatform development a lot easier. Especially when their titles have historically been performing poorly on Nintendo consoles.
"Let's try and fix this problem" is not going to turn the WiiU around. It's got too many issues for this, many of them being usual mistakes that Nintendo still hasn't learned to acknowledge, let alone try to adress.
That's honestly an interesting question. I don't think this is as big of an issue as people make it out to be, but I don't really know.
Just curious, when was the last time retailers actively fought against a console being sold in their store, and what were the reasoning/outcomes that resulted from the situation?
This whole retailers vs. game companies when it comes to unsuccessful consoles thing is honestly sort of intriguing and I don't think I've read anything that went in-depth about it.
d00d3n
Member
Could Nintendo boost third party support by radically lowering the licensing fees for releasing games on the wii u? It seems like the big issue they are facing right now is that not even their own games sell especially well, presumably because too few people have bought the wii u. Maybe it would be profitable for them to lower licensing fees if more people are enticed to buy the console and they are able to sell say twice (probably lower in reality) as many copies of their flagship games.
Imperfected
Member
I've said it elsewhere, but I'll say it again:
If you're a Nintendo fan, you should not be asking how Nintendo can save the Wii-U. You should be asking how to save Nintendo from the Wii-U.
The system is an unmitigated disaster and will never come close to turning a profit. Everything is triage from this point onward: what are the best moves to make to minimize the massive financial losses associated with this thing, while at the same time protecting the integrity of the Nintendo brand and confidence in that brand?
I mean, let's be clear here, the Wii-U didn't lose Nintendo "only" a few dozen billion yen this year. The Wii-U had to completely obliterate the 3DS's profits before that, meaning that if you break it down by system it probably cost them three or even four times as much as the loss actually shows. This thing isn't just "depressing" or "unfortunate", it's actively dragging the entire company down with it into the grave, in no small part because Iwata for so long refused to acknowledge the situation the platform is in despite having no reasonable plan for recovery.
The best thing you can do for Nintendo at this point is let it go. Yes, as a consumer it absolutely sucks and I wouldn't blame you for a minute for saying, "Screw Nintendo, I bought this thing on promises that I want fulfilled. They better give me games!" That's exactly what's killing them right now, though: having to fulfill all of Iwata's empty promises to avoid tarnishing the brand.
If you're a Nintendo fan, you should not be asking how Nintendo can save the Wii-U. You should be asking how to save Nintendo from the Wii-U.
The system is an unmitigated disaster and will never come close to turning a profit. Everything is triage from this point onward: what are the best moves to make to minimize the massive financial losses associated with this thing, while at the same time protecting the integrity of the Nintendo brand and confidence in that brand?
I mean, let's be clear here, the Wii-U didn't lose Nintendo "only" a few dozen billion yen this year. The Wii-U had to completely obliterate the 3DS's profits before that, meaning that if you break it down by system it probably cost them three or even four times as much as the loss actually shows. This thing isn't just "depressing" or "unfortunate", it's actively dragging the entire company down with it into the grave, in no small part because Iwata for so long refused to acknowledge the situation the platform is in despite having no reasonable plan for recovery.
The best thing you can do for Nintendo at this point is let it go. Yes, as a consumer it absolutely sucks and I wouldn't blame you for a minute for saying, "Screw Nintendo, I bought this thing on promises that I want fulfilled. They better give me games!" That's exactly what's killing them right now, though: having to fulfill all of Iwata's empty promises to avoid tarnishing the brand.
PSP Go, because it was a hardware that had no potential for software sales for retailers.
daninthemix
Member
At this point I really think the only hope is for a price cut to £100/$150. But the controller manufacturing cost probably makes that prohibitive.
Either that or Nintendo need to pull about 10 new exclusive must-have games from nowhere.
Either that or Nintendo need to pull about 10 new exclusive must-have games from nowhere.
The Wii U is done at this point - all that is left is looking forward to a fantastic 2014 lineup, that's it. The investor meeting just underlined that even Nintendo themselves basically gave up on it and will ride it out.
Sure, Miyamoto's new singleplayer game that focuses on the Gamepad might be a platform-defining project, but they needed that in 2012 at launch and not in late 2014 or early 2015.
Personally, I can't wait to play the announced exclusives and I'm kind of glad that the declining Wii brand will force them to do something entirely new
Sure, Miyamoto's new singleplayer game that focuses on the Gamepad might be a platform-defining project, but they needed that in 2012 at launch and not in late 2014 or early 2015.
Personally, I can't wait to play the announced exclusives and I'm kind of glad that the declining Wii brand will force them to do something entirely new
If only they would of purchased studios at the height of the wii and DS success.
Canis lupus
Member
How convenient that you left out NSMBU which had a prequel selling close to 30 million copies on Wii too. Mario Kart isn't gonna change thinks as much as you think it will.
Smash Brawl sold as much as Mario Galaxy 1, based on it's performance and Mario 3D World, Smash Bros U will scale likewise.
Smash Brawl sold as much as Mario Galaxy 1, based on it's performance and Mario 3D World, Smash Bros U will scale likewise.
a) as if they'd care b) assuming that no new blood would be working on it c) got anything to back up this supposed pain involved with programming for the gamepad specifically?
I'd hope so, considering it only got 2 other March releases to compete with, one of them being lego hobbits edit: and the other one failed to be funded through kickstarter, so it's not even guaranteed Wii U support, so yeah, that's shovel knight and lego hobbits for confirmed march release.
Dalibor_San
Member
First of all even a legendary game of epic proportions will fail if the Hardware manufacturer is not doing anything to inform consumers that their hardware exists.(or even proper Advertisement for that said game)
So the fact that so many spout the "first party games will save the system" BS for Sony,Microsoft and Nintendo is just misguided.
You need to have a system in place for it to be picked up and then sell with your amazing games, Nintendo did not put the same effort that Sony did when they hit it hard with the PS3.(or Microsoft coming from the original Xbox to Xbox 360)
Games are the most important but what good is that when your hardware has nothing advantageous about it, outdated practices with hardware account and other bs?
You need to put as much effort into the system itself and your policies and online infrastructure just as much as getting those great games out.
Now its not over yet but that press release does not exactly ignite hope in the system,it just seems they have seriously went off course to what made them great in the past.
DarknessTear
Banned
All the negativity regarding Nintendo has actually made me pretty depressed. Main reason? I own a Wii U. I've seen more games come out on consoles AFTER the end of their life cycle than this console. Bleh.
I don't think they'll turn things around in regards to big 3rd party support ...although I'm not convinced that would have been there to any great degree even if WiiU had sold well.
When it comes to future sales... it'll be Nintendo software, pricing, branding and marketing that will (or won't) turn things around. Same as always.
Of course it's not dead ....those who say that are people who want Nintendo dead for some bizarre reason..or want them to make games for their consoles.
...it'll only be dead when Nintendo give up on it. which won't be for a couple more years at a minimum.
There has already been enough software announced to make it a more than worthwhile purchase from my perspective...and in the end that's all that really matters to me.
When it comes to future sales... it'll be Nintendo software, pricing, branding and marketing that will (or won't) turn things around. Same as always.
Of course it's not dead ....those who say that are people who want Nintendo dead for some bizarre reason..or want them to make games for their consoles.
...it'll only be dead when Nintendo give up on it. which won't be for a couple more years at a minimum.
There has already been enough software announced to make it a more than worthwhile purchase from my perspective...and in the end that's all that really matters to me.
Yeah, like "Here's your "Zelda" game, Zelda fans!!..." *extends arms out in friendly gesture*
Here's hoping that many games don't suffer setbacks due to lower expected sales (read: lowered budgets midway through development producing sacrifices in developers visions...)
Bayonetta 2
X
"Zelda" (Hyrule Warriors)
"Mario Galaxy 3" (unannounced I know, but, like SQUAR3 ENIX always says: "REUSE DAT ASSETS!!!)
NINTENDO LS
Life System!
Wonderful argument. Can I request it on paper, with an autograph of yours? These are stuff that make debate legends.
mr_sockochris
Member
This. I borrowed one from a friend over Xmas and while i was tempted to buy it off him for £150 there just isn't enough from Nintendo to sway me yet (still). Smash and Mario Kart are on the way but they seem to have given up making half of their IP's.
Metroid. Star Fox. F Zero. Pilotwings. These games complimented Mario/Zelda/Smash so well I didn't feel like the lack of 3rd parties on N64/GC mattered. Also, they don't make games like Waverace, 1080 or Excitebike any more and that's a shame. Yes, none of these would be big sellers I'm sure but make some for the eShop for £15 or bundle all 3 together as some kind of extreme sports racing package and I'm sure they would be profitable.
Nintendo simply have to do more. By not making any of the above games you are losing people like me who have bought practically everything you've made in the last 25+ years
The Wii U is really beyond any salvation at this point, and it could be argued that it was doomed from the start, even if Nintendo had made the right moves.
The key factor here is that the market that Nintendo targeted the Wii with has diverged to other more convenient devices. Nintendo did not recognise this as a problem then since it could be argued that Nintendo very much is passive when it comes to recognising the shifts and dynamics in the market.They really do work in a vacuum most of the time, and they're not going to adjust until they absolutely have to. They're very much introverted, and that is really the fundamental problem that Nintendo has.
Nintendo absolutely need to come out of their shell and actively read where the market is right now, and most importantly, where it's headed. They need to actively reach out to consumers and publishers alike, and show that they've changed, and demonstrate why those changes are worth investing in. They must become a more attractive and stronger option than what they currently are, since their status right now is record low.
This is very important since the console industry is very much in a pressured state than it has ever been. Since the introduction of mobile devices, the options out there are absolutely unlimited, so if you don't stand out on your own and actually display that you are worth it more than the rest, you're going to get slaughtered. The competition's more fierce than it has ever been, but the market is only so big. That's why it's vital that you resonate with your consumers and business partners, and understand that what you had originally envisioned, isn't really going to work in today's environment. Both Microsoft and Sony have learned this lesson, and is the reason why they're able to hold their own, even though the market is absolutely brutal.
Nintendo needs to revise their ways and take this to a rudimentary level by working on their outreach with audiances and partners alike, as much as their vision for where to go next.
The key factor here is that the market that Nintendo targeted the Wii with has diverged to other more convenient devices. Nintendo did not recognise this as a problem then since it could be argued that Nintendo very much is passive when it comes to recognising the shifts and dynamics in the market.They really do work in a vacuum most of the time, and they're not going to adjust until they absolutely have to. They're very much introverted, and that is really the fundamental problem that Nintendo has.
Nintendo absolutely need to come out of their shell and actively read where the market is right now, and most importantly, where it's headed. They need to actively reach out to consumers and publishers alike, and show that they've changed, and demonstrate why those changes are worth investing in. They must become a more attractive and stronger option than what they currently are, since their status right now is record low.
This is very important since the console industry is very much in a pressured state than it has ever been. Since the introduction of mobile devices, the options out there are absolutely unlimited, so if you don't stand out on your own and actually display that you are worth it more than the rest, you're going to get slaughtered. The competition's more fierce than it has ever been, but the market is only so big. That's why it's vital that you resonate with your consumers and business partners, and understand that what you had originally envisioned, isn't really going to work in today's environment. Both Microsoft and Sony have learned this lesson, and is the reason why they're able to hold their own, even though the market is absolutely brutal.
Nintendo needs to revise their ways and take this to a rudimentary level by working on their outreach with audiances and partners alike, as much as their vision for where to go next.
EventHorizon
Member
Nintendo can't do anything except cut the price of the Wii U.
So what this means is that if Nintendo did nothing, it'd take almost 3 years to sell their current stock. That does not account for the fact that Nintendo is likely still making more units right now although I expect that to stop as soon as possible.Time is not Nintendo's friend. The bad news will likely suppress future purchases, so the 3 year prediction is a best case scenario.
Nintendo has to get rid of the current Wii U with gamepad inventory before they can even think about making a new version. To add more inventory when they can't sell the current amount is throwing money away. Yes Nintendo will lose money if they reduce the price of the Wii U, but they will lose even more money if they can't sell them at all.
People keep approaching this situation by thinking that Nintendo could somehow turn things around. They evaluate all the options by comparing them to that rosy outcome. What they should really be comparing the options to is the likelihood that Nintendo will have to eat the cost of unsold systems, and that their software sales will be depressed due to the small install base of hardware.
Facts
- 9 million: Number of Wii Us Nintendo projected to sell
- 2.41 million: Actual number of Wii Us that Nintendo sold
- 6.59: The minimum number of unsold Wii Us in stock
- 2.7 years: Time needed to sell existing stock at current rate of 2.41 million per year
So what this means is that if Nintendo did nothing, it'd take almost 3 years to sell their current stock. That does not account for the fact that Nintendo is likely still making more units right now although I expect that to stop as soon as possible.Time is not Nintendo's friend. The bad news will likely suppress future purchases, so the 3 year prediction is a best case scenario.
Nintendo has to get rid of the current Wii U with gamepad inventory before they can even think about making a new version. To add more inventory when they can't sell the current amount is throwing money away. Yes Nintendo will lose money if they reduce the price of the Wii U, but they will lose even more money if they can't sell them at all.
People keep approaching this situation by thinking that Nintendo could somehow turn things around. They evaluate all the options by comparing them to that rosy outcome. What they should really be comparing the options to is the likelihood that Nintendo will have to eat the cost of unsold systems, and that their software sales will be depressed due to the small install base of hardware.
Nikodemos
Member
They need to. That is, if they want to have any sort of success with the next one, like their roadmap with separate handheld and home consoles shows. What would've happened had Sony said "meh, whatevs" in 2008 when the extent of PS3's bomba became apparent?
If Nintendo go for a Voltron multi-part hybrid system, like many GAFers including myself have hypothesised, revivifying the U isn't as essential, but they would still need to show the flag, as it were.
blast processed
Member
They just announced DS Virtual console, why would they drop the gamepad? They're already committed to it so I can't see them ditching it, plus theres already confusion by consumers and retailers, removing it would just add to that.
Where does this number come from?
Agent Gibbs
Member
Turn things around? i think the changes could see a rise in userbase and general sales, and Nintendo as a whole could turn things around....but the WiiU isn't going to be any 3DS.
The plans for it aren't radical enough, sure i'll get some awesome games for it, but its going to be my secondary if not tertiary gaming machine this gen (PS4>PC>WiiU), Third parties are going to abandon the WiiU and fr the next Nintendo console they are going to have to make some serious inroads and money hat like crazy if they want third parties to return
I'm depressed at the prospects of my WiiU, when it was anounced and i bought it, it looke promising, now its paled in the shadow to everything else
The plans for it aren't radical enough, sure i'll get some awesome games for it, but its going to be my secondary if not tertiary gaming machine this gen (PS4>PC>WiiU), Third parties are going to abandon the WiiU and fr the next Nintendo console they are going to have to make some serious inroads and money hat like crazy if they want third parties to return
I'm depressed at the prospects of my WiiU, when it was anounced and i bought it, it looke promising, now its paled in the shadow to everything else
EventHorizon
Member
Code:
9.00 million: number of units projected to sell
- 2.41 million: number of units actually sold
===========================
6.59 million: number of units left to sellThis assumes that Nintendo was producing enough units to meet their sales projections.
Synth_floyd
Banned
Nintendo hit lightning in a bottle with the Wii, but didn't realize that the Wii fans moved on to other things and tried to replicate it with the Wii U. Bad marketing didn't help either.
Bill Rizer
Member
I doubt. It's not a matter of good software at this point. Mario 3D World is the most amazing, creative, visually rich 3D platformer ever created; it's even multiplayer and it's lot of fun; still it didn't move a single WiiU at Christmas, actually. Slightly more than 400.000 units sold in Japan, a complete disaster, and US numbers aren't better.
Maybe it's more a matter of quantity over quality, because you know, people like choice, even if most of that choice are mediocre games. But it's really difficult to sell people a system whose shelves are made of the same 10-20 games since launch, and which sees a single new game every other month.
Maybe it's more a matter of quantity over quality, because you know, people like choice, even if most of that choice are mediocre games. But it's really difficult to sell people a system whose shelves are made of the same 10-20 games since launch, and which sees a single new game every other month.
Starwolf_UK
Member
They are assuming Iwata was telling the truth when he expected 9 million systems to be sold and that means he made 9 million systems but only sold 2.41. 9-2.41=6.59.
Iwata has exaggerated and lied about projected system sales since the Gamecube days (and this one actually stopped production due to unsold stock too).
Cygnus X-1
Member
Imperfected
Member
Sadly, they were most likely producing more than that many units.
The use of fabrication facilities in electronics requires expensive long-term contracts, generally at a minimum of one year, often longer. During that time they pay for having the fab set up to produce their units regardless of how many they're producing, so they will generally produce as many units as possible during that period to best benefit from economics of scale. The extra stock will then be stored and sold over a longer period, as warehousing costs are generally much lower than the (enormous) expense of reserving a high-tech fab.
Nintendo most likely has considerably more unsold units - or at least components from which to assemble those units - than the difference in their sales projection and actual sales. They almost certainly produced more than they thought they would sell over the period of production for the sake of having excess units during production downtime. (And most likely locked themselves into a pretty large production deal due to the success of the Wii and early signs that the Wii-U could have been successful.)
Fattony12000
Member
Maybe they should release some of those pretty good games that they've been known to make.
Interceptor
Banned
You are missing a lot of good games. Nintendo hasn't been this good in years.
It's not working that way. You can't simply take the projected number and use it as produced SKUs. Basically no firm in world works that way. It's far too risky.
Stone Ocean
Member
Half a dozen isn't exactly "a lot". Talking first party by the way.
Fox_Mulder
Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
I feel like Wii U is more dead than Vita.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Consumers don't buy the dead systems. There's no turning not only U around, but their console business. At least not without some major changes concerning the latter that Nintendo will never bother doing.
For the first time I'm starting to regret buying a Wii U.
For the first time I'm starting to regret buying a Wii U.
Nikodemos
Member
Hardware assembly contracts are volume-based, so companies produce all the units they project to sell. They don't just go to Foxconn, Compal, Winstron or whomever and say "right, old chap, two more million of the same, will you?". That would show poor planning skills on the part of the operations officer.
Yes, it is risky, but that's the hardware pushing biz for you. If you b0mb@, you're left with walls o'boxes in your warehouses.
Interceptor
Banned
Of course it could have been more if 3rds are there. I think everyone knows that. But Nintendo just had one of its best years in terms of games. Sometimes I feel like a strange person who buys a game console for the games on it.
Megadragon15
Member
How can something be more dead than death personified?
Imperfected
Member
I'm not sure what you're talking about, here.
To take an example: Sony and Microsoft are currently producing about 1,000,000 units a month, give or take about ten percent. They had to reserve enough fab space for production of whatever components and assembly to produce that many units. This level of production does not and will not change significantly over the next year; a massive amount of the expense in fabricating electronics is front-loaded onto setting up the assembly lines to make them in the first place, if you don't fully utilize that potential production your cost efficiency goes to shit in a hurry.
They do not necessarily expect to continue selling a million units a month, despite producing a million units a month. They likely expect demand to taper off somewhere around halfway through their production order, at which point they will be selling fewer units than they are producing. These units will be stockpiled for sale at a later time. As long as they are confident in their ability to sell these units in a reasonable turnaround period there is very little associated cost and risk.
The reason you see so many new unique models of a system during a given generation (PS3 Phat, PS3 Slim, 360 OG, 360 Jasper chipset model, etc.) is because when their production contracts with fabs run out, they have a chance to change their design and use of components before resuming production at very little cost. If you purchase an "old" model unit after a newer one has become available, you are almost certainly purchasing a unit that was actually manufactured months or even years prior.
This is why people have such accurate prognostications for the arrival of new SKUs and redesigned base models: if you know the timing of the fab contracts the company undertook, you can generally guess when they'll be starting a new one, and they'll usually want to make at least a few adjustments when they do.
EventHorizon
Member
Actually it does and worse. I would go into it but Imperfected already did a good summation. Also check out this episode of Pach Attach. Basically the amount of units produced is locked in well ahead of time. If Nintendo said that they could sell 9 million units then the deal to make those units would have to have been in place at least a year earlier.