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January 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th

A

Aquamarine

Member
s8WxMYY.png


So, my predictions are:

1. PS4 - 310K (will continue to reign supreme)
2. Xbox One - 206K (will lag behind but not significantly)
3. 3DS - 173K (will fall from its heights in December more severely as Holiday was high point for the console)
4. 360 - 135K (usual holiday % decline, but the console reaches new January lows)
5. PS3 - 104K (abysmally low January sales due to PS4 quickly taking over)
6. Wii U - 65K (continues to be dead)

In proper counting order:

[360] 135K
[3DS] 173K
[PS3] 104K
[PS4] 310K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 206K
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[360] 135k
[3DS] 175k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 345k
[WIU] 67k
[XB1] 255k
 
U

ultratruman

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
It certainly appears to be selling very well but it's simply not sold out. Stock is/has stabilized for the most part over January
Click to expand...

Stabilised = not hard to find? Based on that site it still seems pretty touch and go. The situation here in the UK is far from what I'd call stabilised.
 
A

Ambient80

Member
[360] 180k
[3DS] 230k
[PS3] 120k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 230k

mainly put XBO over PS4 due to supply issues. I see 360 still making decent sales, and the Wii U continuing its sadness.
 
C

CCIE

Banned
I'm willing to bet the PS4 outsold the XB1 at LEAST 2:1 in January, and probably closer to 3:1. The XB1 has been readily available and sitting on store shelves with minimal demand since X-Mas. The PS4 hasn't been available at all until recently, and still is selling at a MUCH faster rate.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
Hey donny2112, do you think we might see lower than "normal" sales for any systems from returns this January as was suspected of the Wii U last year?
Click to expand...

Wii U was a special case because Wii was a special case. People made hard cash on reselling Wiis for years after launch, and many resellers were definitely hoping for something like that with Wii U, for whatever impact that had on January 2013 sales. PS3 was a high sale for the first month after release, but quickly fell to earth, and besides, there's no sign of widespread consumer dissatisfaction with PS4. 360 also was fully in-stock after ~5 months. Nothing like the long-lasting impact Wii had on the reseller community. Put all that together, and I think Wii U was a special case (if any case can be made for returns in Jan-2013), and returns shouldn't affect Jan-2014 sales for any system.

My thinking with it, anyways.


On the PS4 situation in January, recognize that PS4 being in-stock now does not mean it was in-stock in January. ;)
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 120k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 320k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 270k
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
Aquamarine said:
So, my predictions are:

1. PS4 - 310K (will continue to reign supreme)
2. Xbox One - 256K (will lag behind but not significantly)
3. 3DS - 173K (will fall from its heights in December more severely as Holiday was high point for the console)
4. 360 - 135K (usual holiday % decline, but the console reaches new January lows)
5. PS3 - 104K (abysmally low January sales due to PS4 quickly taking over)
6. Wii U - 65K (continues to be dead)

In proper counting order:

[360] 135K
[3DS] 173K
[PS3] 104K
[PS4] 310K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 256K
Click to expand...

Are you taking account of last year being 5 weeks instead of 4 weeks? PS3 looks pretty generous under the circumstances. For mine I used around 16% of December's numbers except for supply constrained PS4 but I'm probably underestimating the rest slightly.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Graphics Horse said:
Are you taking account of last year being 5 weeks instead of 4 weeks? PS3 looks pretty generous under the circumstances. For mine I used around 16% of December's numbers except for supply constrained PS4 but I'm probably underestimating the rest slightly.
Click to expand...

The reason I have PS3 so high (compared to your 47K) is because I believe the circumstances of this particular Holiday season won't cause January MOM losses that are as severe as usual. As the consoles approach abysmally lower numbers, I believe their rate of decline will taper off.

So, because PS3 is so low (I predict January to be 103K), its decline will only be -65% as opposed to previous years where the PS3 represented a -78% decline.

Wii U may have surpassed PS3 by 182K last month, but I believe January will be the month that demonstrates how fundamentally weak Nintendo's consoles are once they get out of the holiday environment, and we'll see PS3 numbers rise slightly above it.

Although it didn't really occur last month, I believe the launch of the PS4 will infuse awareness in the PlayStation console brand now that we're sufficiently in a post-launch period.

Case in point:

PS2 (December 2005) - 1.5 million
PS2 (December 2006) - 1.4 million (PS3 launched)

PS2 (January 2006) - 272K
PS2 (January 2007) - 299K (effects from PS3 launch boost PS2 performance)


I think that same phenomenon will have a small effect on PS3's January performance.
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
Aquamarine said:
The reason I have PS3 so high (compared to your 47K) is because I believe the circumstances of this particular Holiday season won't cause January MOM losses that are as severe as usual. As the consoles approach abysmally lower numbers, I believe their rate of decline will taper off.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your answer! Yes my PS3 prediction looks woefully low, but I do kind of expect big dropoffs of PS3 and a very different situation to the PS2's life beyond its successor.
The PS2 was around $129 at the time of the PS3 launch and couldn't be further from the krazy priced PS3.
 
B

beast786

Member
I am not sure why people believe PS4 is more than XB1. PS4 was supply constrained just like in December. I expect overall he same ratio as December but just less numbers.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
beast786 said:
I am not sure why people believe PS4 is more than XB1. PS4 was supply constrained just like in December. I expect overall he same ratio as December but just less numbers.
Click to expand...

mostly because of mort's quip about January NPD's for XB1 being bad and PS4 numbers being strong
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I think the big X factor this month is PS4 supply. I based my prediction on three assumptions: 1) supply was still largely selling out, 2) some of January's supply was pulled into December, creating low stock for the first few weeks, and 3) what share of the 1.4 monthly manufacturing allotment was going to the US.

The % for 2) and 3) I guessed at what I thought was reasonable, which is to say, plucked from my rear. Curious what others did for their predictions.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Graphics Horse said:
Thanks for your answer! Yes my PS3 prediction looks woefully low, but I do kind of expect big dropoffs of PS3 and a very different situation to the PS2's life beyond its successor.
The PS2 was around $129 at the time of the PS3 launch and couldn't be further from the krazy priced PS3.
Click to expand...

Although consumer perception may not be equivalent to this, but $129 back when the PS3 launched is worth the same as $150 now. The entry level into the PS3 ecosystem at the moment is $205, so all-in-all it's about $50 more expensive to enter into the ecosystem now than it was before.

Does that factor into consumer purchasing? Absolutely. $205 is a psychological barrier and doesn't have the same appeal that $129 has, even with inflation taken into account.

However, I think the rampant popularity of the PS4 will boost awareness of the PlayStation console brand enough that it will offset that psychological barrier...enough to give PS3 a small gain over what it would be otherwise.

Who knows, though. It might go the other way and end up with below Wii U numbers. We'll find out soon.
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
beast786 said:
I am not sure why people believe PS4 is more than XB1. PS4 was supply constrained just like in December. I expect overall he same ratio as December but just less numbers.
Click to expand...

If anything, it was a total fluke that they both ended so close last time. The Xbox seemed to be in abundant supply last month, and could easily been a few 100k higher than it was if people demanded it enough.

If Sony decide to only ship whatever Xbox is selling, then it might happen again, but I expect they got more in than that.

Aquamarine said:
Although consumer perception may not be equivalent to this, but $129 back when the PS3 launched is worth the same as $150 now. The entry level into the PS3 ecosystem at the moment is $205, so all-in-all it's about $50 more expensive to enter into the ecosystem now than it was before.

Does that factor into consumer purchasing? Absolutely. $205 is a psychological barrier and doesn't have the same appeal that $129 has, even with inflation taken into account.

However, I think the rampant popularity of the PS4 will boost awareness of the PlayStation console brand enough that it will offset that psychological barrier...enough to give PS3 a small gain over what it would be otherwise.

Who knows, though. It might go the other way and end up with below Wii U numbers. We'll find out soon.
Click to expand...

We'll see. I'm not really sold on the brand boosting idea, the poor Vita doesn't seem to benefit from it at all. Wii U will be close, probably got a bigger Christmas boost so may fall back behind.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Graphics Horse said:
If anything, it was a total fluke that they both ended so close last time. The Xbox seemed to be in abundant supply last month, and could easily been a few 100k higher than it was if people demanded it enough.

If Sony decide to only ship whatever Xbox is selling, then it might happen again, but I expect they got more in than that.



We'll see. I'm not really sold on the brand boosting idea, the poor Vita doesn't seem to benefit from it at all. Wii U will be close, probably got a bigger Christmas boost so may fall back behind.
Click to expand...

Yes, but SCEA has completely abandoned the Vita in all regards (promoting it to retailers, first-party game development, advertising / marketing). However, they still care about PS3.

So the momentum for the PlayStation brand might apply when we're talking about the home console environment and for consoles that SCEA actually care about.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
[360] 150K
[3DS] 250K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 800K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 250K

Do I get something wrong here? PS4 is still selling out, so why should sales be lower than December unless they decided to reduce production just because it is January.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
[360] 200K
[3DS] 225K
[PS3] 150K
[PS4] 550K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 400K

I honestly have no clue outside of me feeling that the PS4 sold more than the Xbox One due to its cheaper price and lower availability which together is a good combination for higher demand. Should be interesting.

Really think that NA will be a battle for MS/Sony while Sony will take the #1 spot worldwide. MS should remain in a solid second place though (which was the case last gen) and possibly gain marketshare in comparison to last gen due to how bad the Wii U is doing. Sony is going to gain more though I think.
 
A

ascii42

Member
quetz67 said:
Do I get something wrong here? PS4 is still selling out, so why should sales be lower than December unless they decided to reduce production just because it is January.
Click to expand...

Two things, I would say. The PS4 was in production well before the month it released, meaning at least initially it had more supply available than Sony can sustain on a monthly basis. We've also heard that Sony airfreighted supply for December that would have otherwise been available in January. What overall effect that had on sales remains to be seen.
 
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