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Bernie can win in 2016

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Also, trumpeting Bernie's favorability rating when the GOP has barely paid any attention or diverted any of their energy to attacking him is pretty misleading. Hillary's favorables have slid, but they rose after the Venghazi hearing, a.k.a. when she was in the spotlight.

83% approval. Bernie has crossover appeal. Think the last number I saw was 13% would switch sides(Republicans to Bernie) in a general election. That number I think is usually less than 10% for both parties.
 

injurai

Banned
I know a lot conservative people that would like to vote for Bernie. Thing is, I know they won't vote in the Democratic primaries. States where you must declare for the primaries are really inhibiting the democratic process and it's a shame.
 

noshten

Member
I'd actually like to go to an alternate universe where Bernie is nominated to see how his numbers change once he's actually being attacked by Republicans. Because you guys seriously seem to think the words "trillions of dollars in spending" and "raising taxes on the middle class" don't mean anything in American electoral politics.

I'd actually like to go to an alternative universe where Republicans and their super PACs won't run attack ads about trillion dollars of spending, communism, free stuff, raising taxes regardless of who the nominee is.
 

damisa

Member
Yeah, because saying what Bernie is saying, "The Game is Rigged", is really a nutcase post. Ridiculous dude.

Well I also think Bernie is a bit of a nutcase, but his supporters ramp it up even more. Just curious, did you even vote for any past elections? Who did you vote for?
 

Dennis

Banned
Seems unlikely he will win.

Really unlikely.

Which is too bad. I like him a lot more than Hillary.

Hillary is the ultimate tool of the system.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I'd actually like to go to an alternate universe where Bernie is nominated to see how his numbers change once he's actually being attacked by Republicans. Because you guys seriously seem to think the words "trillions of dollars in spending" and "raising taxes on the middle class" don't mean anything in American electoral politics.

It'll be a landslide defeat especially if he holds to his no SuperPACs and no negative ads pledge.
 
Well I also think Bernie is a bit of a nutcase, but his supporters ramp it up even more. Just curious, did you even vote for any past elections? Who did you vote for?

And there it is. Anyone calling the economic and political systems rigged is a nutcase even though in fact they are rigged. I really ramped it up even more by saying the exact damn thing he has said, rigged. What world are you living in?

I vote all the god damn time. Presidential elections, off-year elections, off off-year elections(only city council...nothing statewide).
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Bernie definitely can win, but his biggest obstacle is the Clinton campaign. Hillary has a very, very large lead that's all-but insurmountable. To beat her, Bernie Sanders would need to mobilize an enormous amount of young voters and win the support of African Americans, which he currently doesn't have.

Bernie is also easier for a Republican to beat in the general election, but if Donald Trump is either the nominee or a third-party meddler, Bernie Sanders could win.
 

foxtrot3d

Banned
He can win, but he has a smaller percentage chance of winning than the alternative. The question to ask then is whether we want to take that risk given that he won't be able to pass a single of his Democratic Socialist ideals through Congress, so we'd essentially be voting for Supreme Court Nominations. Not one Bernie supporter has ever developed a gameplan to get a single progressive bill passed through Congress. Because it's essentially impossible.

.
 

ATF487

Member
I know a lot conservative people that would like to vote for Bernie. Thing is, I know they won't vote in the Democratic primaries. States where you must declare for the primaries are really inhibiting the democratic process and it's a shame.

This surprises me...do you know why?

I'm going to vote for Bernie on Super Tuesday, and generally try to pitch him to my left leaning friends but I fully expect to be voting for Hillary in November. I wonder if he'd stand a chance of winning if people believed he could.
 

damisa

Member
And there it is. Anyone calling the economic and political systems rigged is a nutcase even though in fact they are rigged. I really ramped it up even more by saying the exact damn thing he has said, rigged. What world are you living in?

I vote all the god damn time. Presidential elections, off-year elections, off off-year elections(only city council...nothing statewide).

Do you even know what rigged means? It means the voting doesn't actually matter and the winner is predetermined. It means both the republican and democrat parties are controlled by some shadowy illumaniti crap. Yes those people are crazy

If you truly believed politics is rigged, then you wouldn't support Bernie either, because him winning means he was in on the rigging all along
 

Valhelm

contribute something
This surprises me...do you know why?

I'm going to vote for Bernie on Super Tuesday, and generally try to pitch him to my left leaning friends but I fully expect to be voting for Hillary in November. I wonder if he'd stand a chance of winning if people believed he could.

I know a lot of young libertarians who like Bernie for his positions on drugs, foreign policy, and campaign finance. While Bernie and Ron Paul are ideologically very opposed, they both agree that certain aspects of America's political establishment ought to be changed.

Many other conservatives are simply not beholden to the Republican establishment.
 

M.Bluth

Member
It doesn't really matter whether he or Hillary won or not. Legislation happens in Congress and most liberals don't give a fuck, which is why we keep ending up with a Congress that is filled to the brim with assholes who wish to dismantle the federal government instead of govern.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I know a lot of young libertarians who like Bernie for his positions on drugs, foreign policy, and campaign finance. While Bernie and Ron Paul are ideologically very opposed, they both agree that certain aspects of America's political establishment ought to be changed.

I actually think that's a very legitimate opinion, too. If you think there's something wrong with the education system, you need to vote in a politician to fix it. If you think there's something wrong with the healthcare system, you need to vote in a politician to fix it. If you think there's something wrong with the justice system, you need to vote in a politician to fix it. If the system is fundamentally broken and stops you voting in the politicians you need, you have to fix the voting system before you can fix *any* other system properly. Even if you disagreed with every single one of Sanders' stances besides campaign finance reform, if you otherwise agreed with a candidate who was also cut out of the system, then voting Sanders is entirely logical. Once the system has been changed, you can then go back to voting Ron Paul or Gary Johnson or whoever. I'm no libertarian and don't agree with essentially any libertarian stances, but I think ridiculing libertarians who support Sanders is strange - they're doing exactly what they should do from a strategic perspective.
 
Poll numbers comparing Trump to Sanders are quite worthless when the GOP has spent zero dollars and zero time on the offensive against Sanders. I think you're quite naive to think that Sanders would win a general election based either on popular vote or electoral vote once the GOP hate machine kicks in on him. Further, putting Sanders as the head of the D ticket would absolutely decimate democrats down ticket in places where they would be more competitive due to Clinton being on the ticket, ie where I live in Houston.

I do applaud your enthusiasm, I remember how pumped I was for my first few presidential elections.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I have yet to hear the alleged path to victory for Bernie that doesn't involve highly implausible scenarios involving 100% turnout of the 18-40 demographic.
 

diaspora

Member
It doesn't really matter whether he or Hillary won or not. Legislation happens in Congress and most liberals don't give a fuck, which is why we keep ending up with a Congress that is filled to the brim with assholes who wish to dismantle the federal government instead of govern.

Yep. I feel like people looking to Bernie as though he's capable of changing anything don't understand this.
 
I wish that were the case, but I don't think America is ready for such a leftist candidate. Once the GOP machine started focusing on him with a billion dollar campaign he'd be dead in the water. Maybe in 20 years if a republican doesn't win 2016.
 

injurai

Banned
This surprises me...do you know why?

I'm going to vote for Bernie on Super Tuesday, and generally try to pitch him to my left leaning friends but I fully expect to be voting for Hillary in November. I wonder if he'd stand a chance of winning if people believed he could.

Fiscal conservatism, and personal fiscal responsibility are breaking down right now because of the tax breaks and monetary options that are reserved for holders of large capital amounts. A lot of conservatives belief in the freedom capitalism can offer as it requires personal responsibility. But capitalism exist in an unbridled state, where the average person has no means of competing. Wealth redistribution is skewed enough to where it no longer makes sense demanding others to pick them up by their bootstraps. People are riddled with credit debt, mortgages, and student loans. We live in a society where you're expected to put yourself in a whole, then dig out until you retire.

Plus Bernie's stance on guns and Israel tends towards pragmatism instead of the empty idealism that we see in the left. Which keeps him from facing too much contention with conservatives on that front. He isn't getting caught up in trying to win over single issue voters either. He is sticking to the important topics of economics, governance, and domestic policy. Which wins a lot of appeal. Plus people know he is running having first been an independent senator, so people aren't suspicious that he might have backwater dealings internal to the democratic party.
 

kirblar

Member
83% approval. Bernie has crossover appeal. Think the last number I saw was 13% would switch sides(Republicans to Bernie) in a general election. That number I think is usually less than 10% for both parties.
Obama had good GOP numbers during the election too.

We saw how that turned out once he got into office.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I have yet to hear the alleged path to victory for Bernie that doesn't involve highly implausible scenarios involving 100% turnout of the 18-40 demographic.

In the presidential or in the primary? Presidential is fairly normal. Primary is very unlikely, but I don't think impossible. Scrape a very narrow win in Iowa, where the most accurate pollster Selzer had him only 8 behind at the end of December, take a gigantic victory in New Hampshire as a result (this is essentially guaranteed if Iowa goes), and hope that the combination of the two manages to take Nevada. If Nevada goes, then all bets are off because that means he has broken into the minority voterbase thanks to the national attention from the Iowa-NH double-whammy. He'll be behind by the end of Super Tuesday, still, because those states are mostly unfavourable to him, but not so far behind that he wouldn't be able to pick up given levelling national polls.

I mean, unlikely, not impossible. I don't expect it; I personally just want Clinton shook enough to actually commit to leftist principles, particularly economic ones. Anything else is a very good bonus, for me and the Democratic Party.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
In the presidential or in the primary? Presidential is fairly normal. Primary is very unlikely, but I don't think impossible. Scrape a very narrow win in Iowa, where the most accurate pollster Selzer had him only 8 behind at the end of December, take a gigantic victory in New Hampshire as a result (this is essentially guaranteed if Iowa goes), and hope that the combination of the two manages to take Nevada. If Nevada goes, then all bets are off because that means he has broken into the minority voterbase thanks to the national attention from the Iowa-NH double-whammy. He'll be behind by the end of Super Tuesday, still, because those states are mostly unfavourable to him, but not so far behind that he wouldn't be able to pick up given levelling national polls.

I mean, unlikely, not impossible. I don't expect it; I personally just want Clinton shook enough to actually commit to leftist principles, particularly economic ones. Anything else is a very good bonus, for me and the Democratic Party.

and this effects you in the U.K how?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
and this effects you in the U.K how?

America sets the tone for most of the Western world, both in abstract policy terms and in terms of concrete actions. When you elected Clinton, it inspired Blairism and New Labour. When you elected Bush, the UK followed you into war and many British lives were lost in Iraq. The Tea Party had a strong influence on the early development of UKIP. I think the effect is particularly strong on the UK because we speak the same language and thus there's large opinion and media cross-over, but this applies to other countries too.

Basically, when your shit hits the fan we can't always dodge.

Also I may move back to America, although probably to a different state than the last time. I'm told Burlington is nice. ;)
 

NeoXChaos

Member
America sets the tone for most of the Western world, both in abstract policy terms and in terms of concrete actions. When you elected Clinton, it inspired Blairism and New Labour. When you elected Bush, the UK followed you into war and many British lives were lost in Iraq. The Tea Party had a strong influence on the early development of UKIP. I think the effect is particularly strong on the UK because we speak the same language and thus there's large opinion and media cross-over, but this applies to other countries too.

Basically, when your shit hits the fan we can't always dodge.

Also I may move back to America, although probably to a different state than the last time. I'm told Burlington is nice. ;)

you were here before? no wonder you know so much as an outsider than the average American. Quite Admirable. :)
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Yep. I feel like people looking to Bernie as though he's capable of changing anything don't understand this.

What really matters is influence. The policies that Bernie advocates are fundamentally more leftward than what Hillary wants, and while neither would be able to work with an uncooperative congress, putting a self-avowed democratic socialist in the White House would broadcast these goals and inform Americans about the ways in which their lives could be better.

Bill Clinton never passed universal healthcare, but he brought it on the table for decades, and eventually saw its passage under President Obama. While I doubt that Bernie Sanders would be able to abolish the campaign finance machine in his presidency, by bringing such great light to these issues he'd rally support for reform and blaze the path toward a solution.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
What really matters is influence. The policies that Bernie advocates are fundamentally more leftward than what Hillary wants, and while neither would be able to work with an uncooperative congress, putting a self-avowed democratic socialist in the White House would broadcast these goals and inform Americans about the ways in which their lives could be better.

Bill Clinton never passed universal healthcare, but he brought it on the table for decades, and eventually saw its passage under President Obama. While I doubt that Bernie Sanders would be able to abolish the campaign finance machine in his presidency, by bringing such great light to these issues he'd rally support for reform and blaze the path toward a solution.

Essentially, yes. People who say "you need to get local politicians into Congress first" are missing the point. Without the conversation even being started, nobody knows about the local politicians. They don't have the profile or the reach that a national campaign on the size of the presidential one can have. "socialism" was the most Googled term of 2015, iirc. That's what Sanders' campaign did. This can be done even more from the pulpit that is the presidency. Sanders probably won't achieve much more than what Clinton would do, foreign policy and significant appointments aside. But he'll set the stage for the person after Sanders.
 
He's not and why should he? If a moderate in comparison like Obama can't cooperate with congress what makes you think what is arguably the most leftist person in congress would. All of his policies he tries to push through the legislative branch would end up either shut down or in gridlock. I know Bernie has a ton of vocal supporters and I really do like the guy and his policies but the reality is that he would not make a good president. He's really good at vocalizing our frustrations with Wallstreet, climate change, campaign funding, the prison system, etc. He's basically the spokesperson Occupy needed years ago. He would make a better spokesperson for the American people than a leader of the American people.
 

noshten

Member
He's not and why should he? If a moderate in comparison like Obama can't cooperate with congress what makes you think what is arguably the most leftist person in congress would. All of his policies he tries to push through the legislative branch would end up either shut down or in gridlock. I know Bernie has a ton of vocal supporters and I really do like the guy and his policies but the reality is that he would not make a good president. He's really good at vocalizing our frustrations with Wallstreet, climate change, campaign funding, the prison system, etc. He's basically the spokesperson Occupy needed years ago. He would make a better spokesperson for the American people than a leader of the American people.

It's funny you should say that because if wanted a person who can actually make an impact - you should just look at his record. He is far more accomplished getting things done than you seem to be aware of.


All told, Mr. Sanders introduced 353 bills during 16 years in the House and nine years in the Senate, giving him a success rate of just less than 1 percent. By comparison, Sen. Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who like Mr. Sanders has amassed a quarter-century in Congress, has had eight bills signed into law out of 376 introduced.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, whom Mr. Sanders is challenging for the Democratic nomination, spent eight years in the Senate. She introduced 409 bills on which she was the lead sponsor, and three became law: renaming a post office, naming a highway and establishing a national historic site in Troy, New York, to recognize female labor leader Kate Mullany.
 

Kathian

Banned
The US public wouldn't support him I don't feel. More and more I see him and Clinton the lower my expectations are for them next time.
 

Tesseract

Banned
it's only unlikely because you say it is

gaf has dissatisfaction me, another establishment democrat

8 more years of gridlock
 
Do you even know what rigged means? It means the voting doesn't actually matter and the winner is predetermined. It means both the republican and democrat parties are controlled by some shadowy illumaniti crap. Yes those people are crazy

If you truly believed politics is rigged, then you wouldn't support Bernie either, because him winning means he was in on the rigging all along

Jesus Christ. You're going on ignore. I can't handle the moronic posts like the one quoted above.

Rigged:

1. The word rigged is used to describe situations where unfair advantages are given to one side of a conflict.
2. Describes the side of a conflict that holds an unfair advantage.

CEO's make 300 times more than their average employee. Rigged. Millionaires and Billionaires can buy politician's votes due to Citizen's United. Rigged. Wall St. executives can cripple the economy with illegal activities and not one goes to jail...meanwhile, homie on the corner is getting shot by the police for the crime of standing on a corner. Rigged.

It goes on and on but you wouldn't understand.
 
It's funny you should say that because if wanted a person who can actually make an impact - you should just look at his record. He is far more accomplished getting things done than you seem to be aware of.

If you want real change, vote local and state. This shit comes from the ground up not by electing a president. There's probably tons of people like Bernie just waiting to be elected in a local or state office where actual change can happen in your local vicinity. All you and tons of other people like you need to do is vote. I mean look at Bernie, when he was elected Mayor of Burlington, he changed it over night. That's what we need to do.
 

ant1532

Banned
Do you even know what rigged means? It means the voting doesn't actually matter and the winner is predetermined. It means both the republican and democrat parties are controlled by some shadowy illumaniti crap. Yes those people are crazy

If you truly believed politics is rigged, then you wouldn't support Bernie either, because him winning means he was in on the rigging all along

lmao. and this guy says the bernie supporters ramp it up.

saying its rigged to a degree is not equivalent to illuminati theories. jesus christ.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I think Bernie has an increasingly likely shot of winning in 2016, especially because one of the latest polls shows him decimating trump, the likely repub nominee by 13 points. I know the republicans have been attacking mostly Clinton so this isn't too much of a surprise but still, it must mean something good.

It is possible that Bernie, if he was the nominee, could beat some potential Republican nominees. I'm not sure where you're getting "likely repub nominee".

Also, he is close/leading in NH against clinton, and is trailing by around 10 points in Iowa. Bernie recently said that if he can win in both those states, then that overcomes the obstacle of when people say that they like what Bernie stands for, but don't think that he can win.

This is off in delusional land.

What are your thoughts GAF?

It seems to me that you support Bernie (which is fine, and you should vote for him if you do, no one should make you be ashamed of voting for a losing candidate in a primary), and so you've concocted a rationalization of how he is going to win.
 
I’m a Bernie supporter, but in the wishful thinking kind of way, not the Ron Paul 08 type.

For me, Bernie is obviously the most ideal from all the options. But realistically, he doesn’t have a chance.

There are a few things about Bernie’s “chances” that I’d like to point out though that I think are worth discussing.

1. When my 18 year old nephew asked me about Bernie back in July, I explained to him that he was indeed the man, but had zero chance, and tried explaining why to him. Since then, it’s very safe to say that Bernie has far exceeded everyones expectations.

He’s raising money like a motherfucker, and his poll numbers have only gone up since then. He polls decently against Hillary and good against Republicans.

Numbers wise, he’s doing better than Obama was at this point in 08, and he polls higher than Obama did against Hillary at this point in 08.

He’s also raising almost as much money as Hillary, and he’s doing it without any Super Pacs or the like. There’s obviously something to be said for that.

2. His following is a lot bigger than most realize. Electorally speaking, Bernie’s current 30%, is bigger than Trumps 40%. Bernie has a very legitimate grassroots following going on.

Just a little side point here, but I think the same climate that made it possible for Jimmy Carter to get elected, is in place now. A massive amount of upper class and upper middle class white people that are annoyed with Washington, combined with a high number of unemployed youth. Those are two things that helped Carter get elected, and I think we could be in a situation were it could make a big difference for Bernie.

3. Elizabeth Warren as a VP pick. I understand that politically, it would be a waste of a politician, but symbolically, it would be huge. I think amongst the party, the symbolizing would be lost on no one, and his following would get fired up to a degree which we can’t imagine. I think the odds of him choosing her are very likely.

4. Iowa and New Hampshire can be helpful. There’s a very strong chance he wins both. Do they matter? Not so much, especially when you consider that both states are almost 95% white. Having said that, it could get him the media attention that he desperately needs, that he’s currently not really getting. Bernie outpolls Trump in a general, and yet it almost never gets reported on.

Now, I’m not saying these are reasons as to why he has a very serious chance, but, I do think they’re things that should be taken into consideration, and should be discussed.

For me personally, it’ll take Bernie winning either California or New York for me to truly believe that there’s a real shot of him winning the nomination. Should he do it, I will drop everything and go to a swing state for at least a month to campaign for him.

Another thing to consider, independent voters. These are a few things Bernie has in common with Trump. Anti Washington. Single Payer Healthcare. Against Iraq War.

I bring this up because as crazy as it sounds, there are people out there have gone from supporting Ron Paul, to supporting Bernie Sanders. Trump supporters are capable of supporting Bernie due to similarities and a populist message. Bernie has some serious cross over potential.

Remember, if you make it to the general, you legit have a 50/50 chance at winning. General elections make someone like Romney seem like a viable candidate. Can never take someone's chances lightly if they get in.

Any ways, just some things I think about.
 
I mean the international press doesn't even talk about him when they mention the US elections... it is either Hillary or Trump which is a damn shame
 

egruntz

shelaughz
Honestly whoever the DNC nominates will win. Bernie's biggest challenge is his race against Hillary. Doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is.
 

ATF487

Member
Fiscal conservatism, and personal fiscal responsibility are breaking down right now because of the tax breaks and monetary options that are reserved for holders of large capital amounts. A lot of conservatives belief in the freedom capitalism can offer as it requires personal responsibility. But capitalism exist in an unbridled state, where the average person has no means of competing. Wealth redistribution is skewed enough to where it no longer makes sense demanding others to pick them up by their bootstraps. People are riddled with credit debt, mortgages, and student loans. We live in a society where you're expected to put yourself in a whole, then dig out until you retire.

Plus Bernie's stance on guns and Israel tends towards pragmatism instead of the empty idealism that we see in the left. Which keeps him from facing too much contention with conservatives on that front. He isn't getting caught up in trying to win over single issue voters either. He is sticking to the important topics of economics, governance, and domestic policy. Which wins a lot of appeal. Plus people know he is running having first been an independent senator, so people aren't suspicious that he might have backwater dealings internal to the democratic party.

I know a lot of young libertarians who like Bernie for his positions on drugs, foreign policy, and campaign finance. While Bernie and Ron Paul are ideologically very opposed, they both agree that certain aspects of America's political establishment ought to be changed.

Many other conservatives are simply not beholden to the Republican establishment.

Yeah both these points make sense, I suppose it depends on what are your core issues.

As someone who's only become politically conscious during the Bush administration (and tends to highly value economic policies), I'm sometimes baffled by people switching party lines because there's generally so little crossover.
 

Clefargle

Member
Yeah he could win, but he needs:

1. A MASSIVE boost to his poll numbers IMMEDIATELY

2. A real Clinton scandal the likes of which Hilary has never seen.

Unless one of those things happen, he won't be the nom.
 
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