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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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I'm unsure about Nintendo hitting that 21 million target, I reckon 18-20 million is where it will end up.
For calendar year it is at already at 7.54m so i'm thinking 4.25m for this quarter and 10m for holiday, for the fiscal year it may be a bit harder because it will probably be down on 2022's Jan-Mar (4.11m).
 

Woopah

Member
For calendar year it is at already at 7.54m so i'm thinking 4.25m for this quarter and 10m for holiday, for the fiscal year it may be a bit harder because it will probably be down on 2022's Jan-Mar (4.11m).
Yes you're right, I was thinking about financial year not calendar year.
 

NeoIkaruGAF

Gold Member
PS2 had one big advantage that makes it hard to beat: They produced it for 12 years and sold it for 13 years. If they stopped production with the release of the PS3 Switch would have already beaten it.
Yeah, PS2 still got FIFA 14, to put things in perspective. Nobody in today‘s world would settle for Switch FIFA. PS2 could be had for peanuts way into the PS3’s lifecycle. If you couldn’t get a second job to buy a PS3, fortunately Sony had a product for you, it was called the PS2. Crazy how that actually worked back then.

I don’t think Switch can beat the PS2 because the market is just too different. But the turnaround story from the WiiU has been crazy enough, and the crow population is still mourning.
 

Dr.Morris79

Member
As if that pile of junk will be a success.

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Nintendo released a breakdown of age groups playing Switch and more 30 to 39 year olds and 40 to 49 year olds were Switch users than people under 18. The demographic that played switch the most was 20 to 29 year olds. The kids these days play COD and Fortnite not so much Nintendo games.
This totally makes sense. Nintendo gaming is about Nostalgia. I'm in my 30s so I fit right into that age group and Nintendo know it. That's precisely why we get those N64 re releases and SNES games on the system and probably why it's the best SJRPG system out there. That genre was huge back in the 90s so it makes sense to put those kind of titles on to cater the majority of the Switch player base.
 

Chronicle

Member
Nintendo released a breakdown of age groups playing Switch and more 30 to 39 year olds and 40 to 49 year olds were Switch users than people under 18. The demographic that played switch the most was 20 to 29 year olds. The kids these days play COD and Fortnite not so much Nintendo games.
Never said anything about age. I said kids! Lol
 
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The Switch is just about to pass PS4 during this quarter.

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It's amazing to see just how big of an impact Christmas has on Q4 sales for each of these consoles, often making more than the preceding 3 quarters.

Another thing: Does anyone doubt that if Sony could meet demand that they'd have sold more than the Switch at this point in its lifecycle? What I mean is, look at Q5 where the Switch sold 7.2M and the PS5 has yet to reach that in a single quarter, even though a couples Christmases came and went. Assuming the shortages are due to manufacturing bottlenecks, why don't Sony pay out the wazoo to manufacturers to get more PS5's out there quicker? You take a loss upfront, but build your base ASAP. It's as close as you can get to printing money!
 
It's amazing to see just how big of an impact Christmas has on Q4 sales for each of these consoles, often making more than the preceding 3 quarters.

Another thing: Does anyone doubt that if Sony could meet demand that they'd have sold more than the Switch at this point in its lifecycle? What I mean is, look at Q5 where the Switch sold 7.2M and the PS5 has yet to reach that in a single quarter, even though a couples Christmases came and went. Assuming the shortages are due to manufacturing bottlenecks, why don't Sony pay out the wazoo to manufacturers to get more PS5's out there quicker? You take a loss upfront, but build your base ASAP. It's as close as you can get to printing money!
The Switch and the 3DS released in March so their holiday quarters come one quarter before the other consoles when launched aligned. With the PS5 holiday quarter coming up i think the PS5 could sell 9 million (could sell more if they can produce more) compared to only 3.9 million last holiday which was wrecked by shortages.
 

fart town usa

Gold Member
lol, i love that this thread gets bumped every few weeks.

I was away from Gaf when it was first made so I didn't bet but I probably would have said that it'd be a success. The Wii U really showcased the Nintendo charm with some of their games but it released at such an awful time. I figured the Switch would do well with the portability aspect.
 
The Switch and the 3DS released in March so their holiday quarters come one quarter before the other consoles when launched aligned. With the PS5 holiday quarter coming up i think the PS5 could sell 9 million (could sell more if they can produce more) compared to only 3.9 million last holiday which was wrecked by shortages.
I understand the chart is anchored to the console release. I meant fiscal Q4, not Q4 on the chart. But, yeah, I'd be interested to see how this holiday season plays out with fewer shortages
 
Good luck with that. Switch is obviously gonna be fine regardless but i can see labo busting hard. Neat idea that cost too much. Cheap materials that will get ruined in the first week or two. You don't charge 70 bucks for cardboard. I guess we will see though. Feels like nintendo got high off their money hatting of amiibos and were like hey now let's charge people for cardboard!
This was my response in January 2018. I offended some people for saying Nintendo is charging for cardboard. While I understand that there is more to it than cardboard, what I was getting at is cardboard doesn't last, and Labo was an expensive investment for something that would be hard to keep in good condition. Clearly there wasn't enough interest in it as Nintendo stopped supporting it, but it also didn't bust hard like i thought it would. In other news the Switch turned out to be more than fine.


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Mozza

Member
The Nintendo Switch now stands at 125.62 million consoles sold, this information was at their year end earnings report. The Switch sold a very impressive 18 million consoles in the last financial year, which is pretty impressive considering it's in it's 6th year, and as yet with no significant price cut.

Nintendo does expect to sell 15-17 million Switch consoles this financial year, and with TOTK releasing to massive hype, and very good reviews it is a possibility, the Zelda TOTK OLED Switch has been released, and had been a massive success thus far, so who knows.

There are of course very strong rumors about a Switch 2 announcement later this year, but Nintendo did stress that there was no new hardware releasing this financial year, so I would be surprised if we got any information about a new console until after the 2024 earnings report, at the very earliest.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
The Nintendo Switch now stands at 125.62 million consoles sold, this information was at their year end earnings report. The Switch sold a very impressive 18 million consoles in the last financial year, which is pretty impressive considering it's in it's 6th year, and as yet with no significant price cut.

Nintendo does expect to sell 15-17 million Switch consoles this financial year, and with TOTK releasing to massive hype, and very good reviews it is a possibility, the Zelda TOTK OLED Switch has been released, and had been a massive success thus far, so who knows.

There are of course very strong rumors about a Switch 2 announcement later this year, but Nintendo did stress that there was no new hardware releasing this financial year, so I would be surprised if we got any information about a new console until after the 2024 earnings report, at the very earliest.
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