• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


Results are only viewable after voting.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Did people even the the games?

3D Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Xenoblade, Minecraft, Skyrim and new IPs in its first year. This thing will have much better sales than WiiU, obviously.

Nonetheless the price is to high for impulse buys. Had really expected a lower price.
 

Sapientas

Member
It will be a solid console in the long run, settling as a moderate success. Close to 3DS numbers or even more.

With time the (expected) combination of their development teams plus some Japanese third party support will be able to offer a bigger variety of games, transitioning a good part of the 3DS players. With a big enough user base, western developers will start to late port some of their games.
 

spekkeh

Banned
Depends. If those high prices are because they want to fleece the first adopters and come down at Christmas, then it still has a chance to do very well.
If it's because they stuck in too much gimmicky shit and are therefore left with overpriced peripherals for the remainder of its lifetime, they learnt nothing from Wii U and will do similar numbers.

Possibly even worse, because then they managed to piss off their faithful and will also not find any parents returning to buy a handheld for €330, a subscription for €???, and games for €70, when their kids are just as well served with a handmedown iPad and free games.
 

KJRS_1993

Member
Never at that price - and that doesn't even include a game from the anemic launch line-up.

Also, with 32gb of memory, I'm skeptical it's going to be getting Destiny 2, Red Dead Redemption 2, Cyberpunk, and a huge bunch of other games that people would expect to be able to play for that price point.

An Xbox One Slim is cheaper and will net you more games, better games, without a dogshite online service that requires you use a smartphone app for voice chat.

Who would seriously choose this thing.
 
There Will be a couple of revisions, but it Will be the last generation of Nintendo hardware. 7 years from now the handheld market Will be even more mobile friendly and Nintendo see bigger returns on releasing Nintendo software as a third party on all consoles, phones and tablets.
 
- Paid online but with the worst service
- Free 1 VC game for a month only instead of what competitors are offering
- Bad launch title / windows
- Uninspiring specs
- Expensive accessories
- Only 32 gb

The price is a significant higher barrier for people that just wanna play pokemon. It won't be DOA but it definitely not what Nintendo hopes it turn out to be.

You don't combined 2 platforms to do numbers worst than one of them ( 3ds ).

The pokemon people will still be playing 3DS for this year. Nintendo knows this. 2017 will be for the rabbid nintendo fan. 2018 will be the time where they will drop the price and add those titles for the pokemon crowd. I dont know maybe Pokemon Stars will launch within 2018 still.

- Free 1 VC game for a month only instead of what competitors are offering

Which is a lot of indie titles you probably will not play anyways..

- Bad launch title / windows

please tell me what games the last 5 launches brought that are really awesome. PSVR was techdemo spalooza, WiiU was pretty meh (Id say it was still one of the better ones), Xbone was okay-ish, PS4 was really abysmal, between vita and 3DS I dont know what is even worse.

Switch has Zelda as a launch game (which is probably going to be better than most of the games of the above)

- Uninspiring specs

Pretty good specs for a handheld though

- Expensive accessories

but you can play 2 P out of the gate due to the design of the joy cons

- Only 32 gb

which is expendable and the memory cards are, unlike with the vita, not proprietary
There Will be a couple of revisions, but it Will be the last generation of Nintendo hardware. 7 years from now the handheld market Will be even more mobile friendly and Nintendo see bigger returns on releasing Nintendo software as a third party on all consoles, phones and tablets.

Nintendo going third party since 1983. Ill believe it when I hear it from them.
Never at that price - and that doesn't even include a game from the anemic launch line-up.

Also, with 32gb of memory, I'm skeptical it's going to be getting Destiny 2, Red Dead Redemption 2, Cyberpunk, and a huge bunch of other games that people would expect to be able to play for that price point.

An Xbox One Slim is cheaper and will net you more games, better games, without a dogshite online service that requires you use a smartphone app for voice chat.

Who would seriously choose this thing.
I dont think it will be getting Destiny, RDR, Cyberpunk or whatever, either. Its not the games I buy Nintendo hardware for anyways.

Who will be buying it? Mostly
People who want to play games on the go.
People who want to play First Party games.
It will be a solid console in the long run, settling as a moderate success. Close to 3DS numbers or even more.

With time the (expected) combination of their development teams plus some Japanese third party support will be able to offer a bigger variety of games, transitioning a good part of the 3DS players.
With a big enough user base, western developers will start to late port some of their games.

exactly. dunno bout western support but Nintendo themselves will put out a lot more games on this than on 3DS or WiiU alone.

The lineup looks meh now but I expect Ace Attorney, Layton, Yokai Watch and games like that to dwelve into the realm soon enough.

We also already see them learning from the early droughts and putting out WiiU Ports. I expect Smash, Hyrule Warriors and stuff like that pretty soon
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
It has some things going against it.

Agree that a price cut will help.

The thing that helps this is its replace the 3DS. If it wasnt, it wouldnt look too good.

Just for that I think it will be a success.

If the Switch sells less than the 3DS...it might be time for Nintendo to face reality and leave the home console business. Because if it does that it gained no folks from the Wii U and basically would have kept mostly 3DS users.
 

butman

Member
Nope. It's a 3 hours Tablet Wii U.

Also who the fuck would take out this massive piece of hardware and accessories?

Like a PS4 + 3DS combo user I'm worried how I will cover my Nintendo portable gaming side. Hope there will be a new real portable device by Nintendo in 2018.
 

0racle

Member
This is arguably one of the worst things I have seen videogame hardware wise in a long time.

It's only positive is Zelda.

And that is available on another system.


Heads Will roll at Nintendo. I am sure this was meant to be a holiday 2016 with Zelda, no excuses. That was the only way the switch would have legs going forward.

It will sell out initially, and be hard to find for a while simply due to artificially created demand from lack of product and resellers buying all the stock thinking there is a second hand market for it.

By the time Nintendo does a complete 180 on this disaster it will be too late. Holiday 2017 is so far out, excitement will be dried out and people just won't care.


I can't believe how bad Nintendo fucked up. It's truely embarassing because behind the persona of laughter, fun and family play representative of the brand, I bed it's a company in complete chaos, not financially but in direction and fundamentals.
 

LordKano

Member
I expect an emergency price drop before the thing launch, so I won't judge it now.
But if it doesn't happen, here's how I see the situation :

- It will do good sales at launch (Nintendo fans + hype + relatively low stocks)
- It will crater from may to june
- Splatoon 2 will be the first victim of these low sales
- Emergency price drop alongside the holidays releases
- It should be good after that.

Basically, 3DS situation, but with a probably better start.

It's not a Wii U 2 tho, far from that. I don't think it will do particulary well though.
 
It's more inspired and looks much better than Wii U. It will have Nintendo's portable goodness.
The problem here is the price, so I think that Switch will struggle in the beginning but Nintendo won't let it fail like they did with Wii U.
 

-hadouken

Member
Following up the Wii U with what feels like an overpriced Wii U2 is not going to work out well. Predicting similar lifetime sales to the Wii U. Hoping Nintendo goes 3rd party in the future.
 
Will do well. The price point may be high for some but here in Aust. I see average people walking around with the same $500 Bose headset as me like it's nothing.

I'd imagine there's casuals out there that'd love to play Skyrim and fully featured Mario Kart 8 on their train to work. I know I will be loving it. I think the word of mouth from such a big sexy device will do wonders for it.
 

Bulbasaur

Banned
It really is a portable home console and people want options. Tablets are outselling PC's nowadays, decent amounts of people do not want to be locked into sitting on the couch to enjoy console quality game experiences, I sure as hell don't.

I think Nintendo is on the tip of a renaissance of brand awareness and combining that with current market trends, will work in the Switches favour and it will at least be a moderate success.
 
I can see this thing doing gamecube/n64 numbers and nothing more.

Have one pre-ordered as a nintendo fan and i know the games will be there but Im not thw type of gamer Nintendo needed to win over.

Godspeed, Nintendo. You got your work cut out for ya.
 
Yes, a moderate success for 2 reasons:

1. Steady stream of first-party software eliminating droughts.

2. SCDs are assuredly coming (my guess is 2018) and will boost the power over time.

Also, I feel like 1, 2 Switch is going to end up big like Wii Sports if marketed correctly. There is absolutely nothing on the market like it.

Where is the steady stream of 1st party titles? Nintendo couldn't do that on Wii U so why will Switch be different?

Wii Sports was big because motion controls were the rage and a Wii cost $250 in 2006 compared to $400-$600 for the competition. Nobody except Nintendo die hards is paying $300 (not even including the game or another controller) to play 1, 2 Switch.

No idea what you're talking about with SCD's
 

psyfi

Banned
I think the core concept is strong, but Nintendo did not come out swinging even half as hard as I expected them too. Their stubborn and obtuse approach to online services and game pricing are worrisome, too.

But meanwhile, the Switch really does look great, and Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, and Arms all look straight up amazing.

So, same old Nintendo, really. Amazing games, confusing and often annoying service design.
 

Nesther

Member
The first year looks solid so I'm positive it will do better than the Wii U.

But yeah, the price and online paywall and no bundled gimmick game are going to prevent it from being a runaway success. Bummer, was hoping for them to pull of another Wii success.
 
It's more inspired and looks much better than Wii U. It will have Nintendo's portable goodness.
The problem here is the price, so I think that Switch will struggle in the beginning but Nintendo won't let it fail like they did with Wii U.
I wonder if they'll crack and drop it like they did three 3ds, or fuck up again and hold the same price all the way till the end like the Wii U did.
 

RulkezX

Member
Slightly better than WiiU bit waaaaaay less that 3DS family numbers.

It's too weak and expensive to appeal to home console fans, it's too big, expensive and battery hungry to appeal to handheld fans.

I think it'll be worth owning eventually , but it's got some huge hurdles to navigate.
And I still don't accept that Nintendo software alone can carry a platform
 

D.Lo

Member
Yes. It's not really a console but the start of an ecosystem. It's the Nintendo iPhone 1.

I expect stuff like a console-only 'pro' version and a handheld only 'micro' version ~3 years from initial launch, all playing the same software.

The initial model will sell 20-40 million.
 

GRaider81

Member
My heart says yes on the long run.

My head says LOL at that UK price and abysmal launch lineup.


I think it's going to be another Wii U tbh. Some great games periodically but not much doing in between.
 

dyergram

Member
Can't see how it could possibly successful given how the wiiu went. No must have games too expensive hardware looks cool but isn't doing anything revolutionary that 1-2 switch game looks awful. Little to no western 3rd party support Skyrim isn't even a launch game. Miyamoto couldn't even be bothered to show up to the show lol.
 

Chris1

Member
Pre reveal: Hit

Post reveal: flop

I don't know what the fuck Nintendo were thinking with that launch lineup, price, accessories price AND putting multiplayer behind a paywall.
 
I have now clue. What i do know tho. This piece of hardware and the software is what made Nintendo great and unique. It's a great concept and risk. Nintendo is finally moving into the current era of console gaming with online services and long time supported games.

If all this will be a (huge) success? I don't know
 

MidnightWatcher

Neo Member
Abysmal sales at that price. I could buy a PS4 with Uncharted 4 and have spare change for PSN membership for £280. Accessory pricing is a fucking insult frankly. It's too big to be called a handheld. Battery life is horrible. Worse release day lineup I've ever seen. The graphics are shit.

Good luck Nintendo.

Was just about to write the same. Such a disappointed.

Looking forward to playing Mario and Zelda on the PS5 because I think this was Nintendo's last go at the console/handheld market and, in my opinion, they blew it.
 

Quonny

Member
Not at $300. If they pull a 3DS and drop it to $199 or $229 then I can see it gaining steam.

But $300 with that lineup and no pack-ins? Dead after the fanboys and girls buy the launch units.
 

Combichristoffersen

Combovers don't work when there is no hair
At that launch price for that hardware with no pack-in game and that weirdass app-based online voice chat? No. It will sell to the Nintendo faithful, and the rest will ignore it until it's dropped significantly in price.
 
Yes, a moderate success for 2 reasons:

1. Steady stream of first-party software eliminating droughts.

2. SCDs are assuredly coming (my guess is 2018) and will boost the power over time.

Also, I feel like 1, 2 Switch is going to end up big like Wii Sports if marketed correctly. There is absolutely nothing on the market like it.

Yo can't be serious about 1, 2 switch. It's like parlor games. Wii sports was something entirely different than this. Nothing on the market like that exists because it's not a game people really want. Those kinds of gimmicky titles have died. Seriously the games design is built around removing the actual video game portion of the game so it's just odd local party games with people doing stupid shit while looking at eachother. I just don't see it.
 

Jakoo

Member
It's hard to say.

I am a longtime Nintendo mark, and I have to say I was massively underwhelmed by what was discussed last night in terms of the launch and the price. Much like the Wii U, I will probably wait about a year before picking it up.

However, if Nintendo truly does plan on dropping the 3DS line and funneling all development efforts into one machine, I am sure that they will be able to brute force enough software on it that it will be worth it.

I think it will be more successful then the Wii U, but will ultimately not stop Nintendo's downward trajectory as of late. And that really hurts to concede because I am such a massive fan.
 

TeaFan

Member
I was really exited this morning with my preorder but im in the UK and looking at it, i dont think its worth the money right now so ive cancelled. Way to expensive in the UK atm. I dont think at those prices it will do that well. Ill get zelda on the Wii U and maybe pick this up later in the year. For now ill stick to PC and PS4
 

Nameless

Member
I think it will.

Casual market is unpredictable. I think kids and families will eat it up.

I won't be buying one though.

Wii had price and a truly novel feature at the time on its side. Switch has none of things things, and it's doubling down on motion controls which people were over a few years after Wii launched.
 

Kikorin

Member
I think using a mobile hardware let them drop the price relative soon, also I think the games that they have showed are a really small part of what is in development and when they'll start with a steady flow probably Switch will sell well.

Pokémon will play a huge part in the possibly success anyway.

I also think they already have more ready or close to be released, but are going all-in with Zelda for launch and I don't know if will be enough.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom