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[AniHawk]

6M units would require a rise.

Assuming something like 1M units, which I think is leaning towards optimistic, for the remainder of CY14, the system would need to do the same next holiday quarter (CY15), while averaging something like 135K for the other 9 months of the year, to reach 6M. That's Mario Kart release level sales consistently.

Even 5.5M would likely require the system outperform this CY consistently.

sales are at around 2.85m right? anyway the wii u sold 754k from oct-dec and 1.217m for 2013. if the platform continues its 50-50% yoy growth, that's another 1.1m this year for about 1.82-1.88m ytd. october should offer a better look at the system's holiday prospects, as september's sales were slightly down, offsetting the price drop from last year with the new bundles.

anyway, if the wii u does hit that number this year, that puts the ltd at around 3.95m. it means that for 2015, the platform would actually need to sell 1.6m for the year to reach the range i set. that would be steady/a slight decline on 2014, reachable through constant game releases and probably a price drop as well.

 

[KingSnake]

So in the end the strategy of Nintendo might work. Release the weaker version but on a more popular console first and then release the definitive version during the peak of the year. And this time without any free game promotion.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I have it at 2.77M...? Not sure where the extra 80K units have come from.

I could see it potentially reaching the lower end of your prediction.
Although I don't think price cuts for failing systems that have intrinsically misaligned value proposition tend to produce any sustained effects, e.g. with the PSP. And I'm not that convinced that the titles being released in CY15 aren't largely just going to sell to the current base.

Similarly, and keeping it more thread relevant, I'm not really convinced these pre-orders aren't mainly existing users.

The system already dropped back to a sub-60K non holiday month in August. It's hard to see it sustaining 75-80K 4 week months and not seeing any decrease in CY15 Q4 versus the million or so it does this year in order to reach that 5.5M mark.

EDIT: Oh I should clarify, I don't mean it would need to outsell every month, so shouldn't have written "consistently" but it would need to outperform in pretty much every month that didn't have hardware impacting events like MK8 was.

Is there any fairly recent decent estimate or actual info on MK8's LTD sales by the way?

edit: ^2.8M? or is that WiiU's LTD in the US?

US LTD? 1.2M physical + digital based on Nintendo PR from last NPD thread.

 

[Raist]

Is there any fairly recent decent estimate or actual info on MK8's LTD sales by the way?

edit: ^2.8M? or is that WiiU's LTD in the US?

 

[AniHawk]

I have it at 2.77M...? Not sure where the extra 80K units have come from.

I could see it potentially reaching the lower end of your prediction.
Although I don't think price cuts for failing systems that have intrinsically misaligned value proposition tend to produce any sustained effects, e.g. with the PSP. And I'm not that convinced that the titles being released in CY15 aren't largely just going to sell to the current base.

The system already dropped back to a sub-60K non holiday month in August. I really don't see it sustaining 75-80K 4 week months and not seeing any decrease in CY15 Q4 versus the million or so it does this year.

i might have added something twice in 2014. this is what i have:

2012: 900k
2013: 1217k
2014: 691k

anyway august's sales don't really tell us a whole lot. the system would have to decline a bit further from that to reach a 50% increase yoy. the platform was up 93% over august 2013 even at 59k. and the interesting thing is that the platform had seen growth of 10% from january through april, even before mario kart was out. if it was increased awareness or leftover effects from a lower pricepoint, the residual effects lasted until the first huge game came out.

i would also say that the audience nintendo generally goes for is more sensitive to price. family stuff is harder to justify when it's more expensive. i think that's why lego games and even disney infinity titles are selling better on wii u than ps4/xb1 right now. it's not a cure-all but it should help buoy sales in a year without enormous hitters like mario kart and smash bros. this also assumes that everything that is supposed to come out in the next year actually makes it. zelda in particular has a lot of sway in the united states.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how well the 3DS Starfox 64 remake and Xenoblade on the Wii did?

People keep bringing them up as next years big hitters, in the same breath as Zelda even, so I'm wondering how likely they are to actually boost sales based on their series last releases.

I mean I'm most likely going to get them both, one looks great and the other is being made by Miyamoto, I'm in no way questioning their quality, just want to know where people are coming from on the sales narrative.

 

[Touch fuzZy. get BizZay]

I refuse to believe a HD, open world zelda game that meets nintendo's quality standards won't get pushed back to 2016 at the earliest

 

[Anth0ny]

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how well the 3DS Starfox 64 remake and Xenoblade on the Wii did?

People keep bringing them up as next years big hitters, in the same breath as Zelda even, so I'm wondering how likely they are to actually boost sales based on their series last releases.

I mean I'm most likely going to get them both, one looks great and the other is being made by Miyamoto, I'm in no way questioning their quality, just want to know where people are coming from on the sales narrative.

Hard to compare because one was a remake and the other had a limited release, whereas the next Xenoblade and Star Fox games are completely new and will get real releases.

But yeah... don't expect either to sell all that well.

 

[AniHawk]

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how well the 3DS Starfox 64 remake and Xenoblade on the Wii did?

People keep bringing them up as next years big hitters, in the same breath as Zelda even, so I'm wondering how likely they are to actually boost sales based on their series last releases.

I mean I'm most likely going to get them both, one looks great and the other is being made by Miyamoto, I'm in no way questioning their quality, just want to know where people are coming from on the sales narrative.

no one knows how well xenoblade did, except nintendo and gamestop.

star fox 64 3d did fine though. it had some good legs.

i think xenoblade's rarity combined with its extremely positive reception (which was built up over a span of years) has propelled the franchise into something more than it was going to be. i think xenoblade's performance in western markets had nintendo think again about what kinds of games they bring over, after the failure of sin & punishment 2 and elite beat agents.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

can we pre-order digitally on euro eshop now?

 

[Aostia]

Surprising considering the free game promo they did with mk8

 

[Shotgun Kiss]

Mario Kart has historically been a bigger franchise than Smash Bros. We still have to see how they both perform on the long run, though.

Melee outsold Double Dash, so that's not true.

Anyway, I'm not surprised SSB on Wii U has more pre-orders than MK8. MK8's biggest audience is more casual gamers, who don't tend to pre-order stuff.

 

[shinra-bansho]

i might have added something twice in 2014. this is what i have:

2012: 900k
2013: 1217k
2014: 691k

I have 885K, 1211K and 678K. So not sure what's happened, although that's a reduced discrepancy from before.

Anyway, I agree the demographics are more price sensitive; but on that note I'd probably add that the availability of substitutes have probably further increased sensitivity, and I don't know if whatever price they can feasibly drop to will necessarily attract those audiences back again.

I also don't know if they will drop. Nintendo wants to maintain profitability rather than gain share right now, and that will rely on maintaining gross margins, and probably needing to improve them - unless they plan to reduce their operating costs - since their overall revenues will likely drop in the next calendar/fiscal year.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how well the 3DS Starfox 64 remake and Xenoblade on the Wii did?

People keep bringing them up as next years big hitters, in the same breath as Zelda even, so I'm wondering how likely they are to actually boost sales based on their series last releases.

I mean I'm most likely going to get them both, one looks great and the other is being made by Miyamoto, I'm in no way questioning their quality, just want to know where people are coming from on the sales narrative.

People are bringing them up more as games GAF seems to be most excited for.

For sales, Kirby and Yoshi are likely to do more IMO. Depends on advertising of course.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Brawl Launch (Most of March): 2.7 Million
MK Wii Launch (April +May): 1.9 Million

It's the only direct comparison we have, but it seems that when compared under similar conditions Smash will be more front loaded than Mario Kart.

 

[Cosmozone]

Holidays, that's all. But still moderately good news.

 

[chaosblade]

Hard to compare because one was a remake and the other had a limited release, whereas the next Xenoblade and Star Fox games are completely new and will get real releases.

But yeah... don't expect either to sell all that well.

Let's be honest, Splatoon will probably be a bigger deal than Star Fox. Possibly bigger than Xenoblade too. Nintendo's marketing will probably play a part in that.

 

[KingSnake]

Let's be honest, Splatoon will probably be a bigger deal than Star Fox. Possibly bigger than Xenoblade too. Nintendo's marketing will probably play a part in that.

I would bet also on this. Seeing how Nintendo had already Splatoon at and after E3 in the lights together with SSB at most of the expos they participated this year and how it will most probably be released in May, like MK8, my bet that Splatoon will get their big marketing push for the first half of next year. The very positive reaction about the game will also solidify this. I also think that Splatoon has maybe also the biggest chance of attracting new Wii U owners (except maybe for Zelda) next year, as it addresses quite a different than usual zone.

 

[ramparter]

Hard to compare because one was a remake and the other had a limited release, whereas the next Xenoblade and Star Fox games are completely new and will get real releases.

But yeah... don't expect either to sell all that well.

I think Xenoblade will do decent but Starfox? Nah... unless they somehow manage to really impress with this game. But as of now, I have the feeling it's of those Miyamoto strange perceptions of what is fun. Moving around the gamepad to shoot sounds like fun for ten minutes, the type of gameplay you expect to see in Raving Rabbits.

 

[Chindogg]

I'm glad things are improving, but the console's so niche it won't reach previous generation's numbers.

That said, if they can make a profit while making the games they're making, I'm all for this new direction. I don't need Nintendo to be #1 to get the experiences I want out of gaming.

 

[AniHawk]

I have 885K, 1211K and 678K. So not sure what's happened, although that's a reduced discrepancy from before.

i thought nov 2012 was 425k while dec 2012 was 475k. using the numbers in the prediction threads to total everything up.

Anyway, I agree the demographics are more price sensitive; but on that note I'd probably add that the availability of substitutes have probably further increased sensitivity, and I don't know if whatever price they can feasibly drop to will necessarily attract those audiences back again.

I also don't know if they will drop. Nintendo wants to maintain profitability rather than gain share right now, and that will rely on maintaining gross margins, and probably needing to improve them - unless they plan to reduce their operating costs - since their overall revenues will likely drop in the next calendar/fiscal year.

if they do a price drop, it may come at a time where they put out a less expensive (to them) version of the platform. if it's possible at all to use less plastic and cheaper parts, i can see them opting for it, especially with regards to the gamepad itself, if they have to start making more.

anyway i see 2015 as more akin to the 3ds's 2013, which saw a small dip versus 2012, thanks in large part to a long string of games that kept the platform in the spotlight and one really big holiday game.

 

[Sheroking]

Brawl Launch (Most of March): 2.7 Million
MK Wii Launch (April +May): 1.9 Million

It's the only direct comparison we have, but it seems that when compared under similar conditions Smash will be more front loaded than Mario Kart.

Well, sure. Brawl still went on to sell another 9 million units.

 

[Shredderi]

Nice!

 

[Azure J]

Melee outsold Double Dash, so that's not true.

Anyway, I'm not surprised SSB on Wii U has more pre-orders than MK8. MK8's biggest audience is more casual gamers, who don't tend to pre-order stuff.

While this is true, Mario Kart Wii also sold like five times Melee's LTD and 3 times Brawl's IIRC. That's also not counting respectable sales of the SNES, N64 (which outdid Smash 64's LTD too), DS & 3DS versions. Smash is up there but Mario Kart's a titan.

 

[Sharkmaster]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-11/nintendo-says-super-smash-bros-orders-set-wii-u-record.html



The hype is real.

Very investing. Can't wait.

 

[John Bender]

Good!

Nintendo deserves all the sales.
They're doing an awesome job for over a year already.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I really thought having a 3DS version would have harmed WiiU sales

 

[leroidys]

Good for them, but I'm much more excited for Captain Toad and Splatoon at this point, personally.

 

[Dereck]

Smash isn't a fighting game.

It's not even a game, let's be honest.

 

[shinra-bansho]

i thought nov 2012 was 425k while dec 2012 was 475k. using the numbers in the prediction threads to total everything up.

if they do a price drop, it may come at a time where they put out a less expensive (to them) version of the platform. if it's possible at all to use less plastic and cheaper parts, i can see them opting for it, especially with regards to the gamepad itself, if they have to start making more.

anyway i see 2015 as more akin to the 3ds's 2013, which saw a small dip versus 2012, thanks in large part to a long string of games that kept the platform in the spotlight and one really big holiday game.

December should be 463K.

I'm not sure how analogous the situations can be considered, the 3DS is essentially the sole viable dedicated handheld and its big holiday game was considerably more powerful a brand I'd say. I guess a better picture will form through and after this holiday season.

 

[Game Guru]

I'm glad about Smash Bros and that Nintendo is in the black again, but I do want to correct something.

Third party games aren't coming back unless they're based on Lego or downloadable, so give up on that dream.

Let's be real here... Even if it was as successful as the Wii was, the third-party games that NeoGAF generally likes (i.e. the AAA retail games) aren't going to be on it. The only thing that makes me disappointed is that third-party games that I personally like aren't going to show up on any console.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

So it will be like a repeat of Gamecube



Smash isn't a fighting game.

they are correct tho, seriously it's War

 

[_Clash_]

The Wii U is at least halfway through its lifespan. Very few people are expecting support beyond 2016. Realistically Mario Kart and Smash are the heaviest hitters this console will ever have.

Basically, best case scenario is Gamecube level sales. Do you see things playing out differently?

Yeah,

100% wrong.

No way Nintendo are releasing a home console in two years when they have a new handheld generation incoming with same architecture as the said home console along with rumours of cross connectivity and releases.

Beyond lunacy. That idea needs to go away on GAf.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Well, sure. Brawl still went on to sell another 9 million units.

My point is to show that Smash debuting higher than Mario Kart is normal, and that it doesn't say anything about which will end up higher at the end of the generation.

Yeah,

100% wrong.

No way Nintendo are releasing a home console in two years when they have a new handheld generation incoming with same architecture as the said home console along with rumours of cross connectivity and releases.

Beyond lunacy. That idea needs to go away on GAf.

What the hell do you imagine them releasing in 2016? Newsflash: by the end of next year they will of exhausted all of their top tier IPs along with most of their better performing second tier as well. Nintendo isn't going to sit on it's hands for two fucking years, and moreover what about the Gamecube/GBA? Those came out the same year.

 

[Kane1345]

Can't wait for release

 

[BumRush]

Did "goat" stop meaning what I thought it meant?

It's such a misused / overused phrase, but you know what he's getting at

 

[zsidane]

So... is this a first by Bloomberg?

So far this year, Nintendo has sold 2 million Wii U units, according to ********(dot)com. By comparison, Sony has sold 8.1 million PlayStation 4s, and Microsoft has tallied 3.3 million Xbox One sales, ******** said.

They don't pay for the NPD report or what?
Edit:
The *** part is you guessed it, ioi's outofhishatnumbers-website

 

[Stilton Disco]

Yeah,

100% wrong.

No way Nintendo are releasing a home console in two years when they have a new handheld generation incoming with same architecture as the said home console along with rumours of cross connectivity and releases.

Beyond lunacy. That idea needs to go away on GAf.

Surely if they're both using the same architecture it would be easier than ever to release both at the same time? Just release one at the start of the year, then the other for Christmas, with shared software for both, as seems to be working for Smash?

I mean they can't just let the WiiU die and leave their mindshare in the console space slip even further into irrelevancy, and the N3DS is unlikely to add that long of an extended life expectancy to their current handheld strategy.

 

[Vertti]

Wii U will sell about 20m and it will be discontinued in late 2017 early 2018 which means about 5 year lifespan. That's what Gamecube did and while it wasn't amazing it wasn't a catastrophe either.

 

[Werewolf Jones]

MK is big but Smash is bigger. No surprise.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Wii U will sell about 20m and it will be discontinued in late 2017 early 2018 which means about 5 year lifespan. That's what Gamecube did and while it wasn't amazing it wasn't a catastrophe either.

Repeat after me: Wii U is not ever going to do 16 million, 20 million is a fantasy that passed long ago and is literally impossible at this point. Even if the system started performing equally to the Gamecube today, it is already trailing the Gamecube at a similar point in it's life by over 3 million units. This means that if somehow the system magically increased to match the Gamecube from here on for the rest of it's life, that would place the system at just over 18.5 million. How people keep spouting these ridiculous numbers is baffling.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Smash was considerably bigger on the GC than MK

Mario Kart was bigger on the Wii, smaller on the 'Cube and bigger than the N64 Smash (which, tbf, was the first in the series and had less brand recognition.) I think with a lot of the Wii crowd gone, it was going to be close between the two (If it hadn't been for the 3DS version, I reckon Smash would've easily been bigger.)

Makes sense considering the Wii U is basically a GameCube 2.0.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Wii U will sell about 20m and it will be discontinued in late 2017 early 2018 which means about 5 year lifespan. That's what Gamecube did and while it wasn't amazing it wasn't a catastrophe either.

I have to ask, what exactly is going to drive these sales over the next 3 years? I'm honestly curious about how you figure this increase in sales is going to happen.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

MK is big but Smash is bigger. No surprise.

35m vs 12m

Doesn't seem so to me.

Smash has only outsold Kart once, and that wasn't by much.

 

[Jawmuncher]

Not surprising at all to me in the case of the WiiU.
It's only the core currently on the system so Smash was going to be bigger than mario kart.

 

[Son Of D]

Unsurprising, really.

• Mario Kart has always outsold Smash, with the exception of Gamecube. But that was only because Melee released before Double Dash. And even then they were close.
• Mario Kart 8 had the free game offer.
• A lot of people were expecting Smash 3DS to hurt the sales of Smash Wii U.

 

[takriel]

Repeat after me: Wii U is not ever going to do 16 million, 20 million is a fantasy that passed long ago and is literally impossible at this point. Even if the system started performing equally to the Gamecube today, it is already trailing the Gamecube at a similar point in it's life by over 3 million units. This means that if somehow the system magically increased to match the Gamecube from here on for the rest of it's life, that would place the system at just over 18.5 million. How people keep spouting these ridiculous numbers is baffling.

The power of Smash and Zelda, believe!

 

[Son Of D]

Melee outsold Double Dash, so that's not true.

Barely outsold it worldwide. And Melee was released first so Double Dash was a faster seller.

 

[BY2K]

Did... did Bloomberg just take their numbers from THAT website? Are you serious?

 

[zsidane]

Did... did Bloomberg just take their numbers from THAT website? Are you serious?

Looks like there's only the 2 of us who noticed and found that odd!