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[-Horizon-]

I think this will do well

 

[Fantastapotamus]

I really hope it'll do well.
But I just don't think so.
But I really hope so.

 

[mclem]

I'd be reluctant to put numbers on it, but I will say that my gut feeling is that it'll do well enough to not be a one-off; we'll see more from this IP.

That doesn't necessarily make it major, I guess, but I also don't think it'll get completely ignored.

 

[Nothing1016]

1M+ Worldwide. Nintendo wants this to be a Major Franchise but the Wii U is holding it back.

 

[Regiruler]

It's 1.230.000 as of December 2013.

Could be at 1.350.000 by now. (maybe)

With the launch of the digital version? 1.4 is my guess.

But we're getting off topic.

 

[Neff]

I think there are things holding it back in the MP department -at least at the stage the game currently is in- to give it the momentum of a game which is played for years like Smash and Mario Kart. But I do think it's going to surprise a lot of people this year at least, and I think both word of mouth and the fact that it's such a novel, appealing, visually communicable idea will allow it to reach those who normally lie outside Wii U's broadcast range.

 

[openrob]

My local game busting out the advertising for the biggest Wii U release this month!

Spoiler

Note the one case on the bottom shelf... I don't even know

It will be stuff like this that prevents it gaining more success.

 

[Neff]

They put it as far away from the 1 as they possibly could...

Game.

 

[wildfire]

I expect above a 25% attach rate. It will sell better than some people here think.

I'm downgrading this out look to above 20% attach rate after 1 year. It will do 1.5m+ in the first month.

 

[-Horizon-]

My local game busting out the advertising for the biggest Wii U release this month!

Spoiler

Note the one case on the bottom shelf... I don't even know

It will be stuff like this that prevents it gaining more success.

This is...UK?

 

[FZZ]

I'm downgrading this out look to above 20% attach rate after 1 year. It will do 1.5m+ in the first month.

bro I have something to tell you

 

[Kill3r7]

I really want it to do well but I don't think it has a chance. Maybe if it was released on 3DS as well.

 

[unknownstranger]

I've seen a few commercials for it and while I was browsing through ads in the paper, I notice the game and the amiibo's were featured pretty heavily in the Target ad and it was on the front page of the Best Buy ad, so Nintendo is at least trying.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

I've seen a few commercials for it and while I was browsing through ads in the paper, I notice the game and the amiibo's were featured pretty heavily in the Target ad and it was on the front page of the Best Buy ad, so Nintendo is at least trying.

Yeah, saw the Target stuff and also saw Jigglypuff there too.

I mean there in spirit because we know better than that.

 

[-Horizon-]

The game is going to be the industries first Tsar Bomba

Prepare yourself for disappointment

Nothing can beat TW101 in terms of disappointing sales for Wii U titles.

A demo that apparently didn't help sell the game in terms of its gameplay and little marketing.

That's like everything Splatoon managed to avoid.

 

[Tregard]

I remember somebody suggesting a Splatoon American Football game would work, that'd be a pretty cool way to expand the IP

 

[Derphoof]

I expect 1.5M+ worldwide. Enough to warrant a sequel on their next console.

 

[Jims]

Honestly, at this point I'm hoping Splatoon eats up a good chunk of the base "Nintendo enthusiast" market and then gets a passable amount of kids, non-traditional Nintendo buyers, and people who are just curious about it. Like even just 500K-700K lifetime would be really great. I don't get the impression that this has been an extremely expensive game for Nintendo to develop.

I feel like, given how barebones Splatoon is going to be in some ways, I really want to see it be a success for Nintendo, so we can see them do the more a refined and fleshed-out experience in Splatoon 2 (Splatwoon?). So we can look back at the original and marvel at how much they added. I dunno, maybe they should have just put more in Splatoon to begin with. Either way, I'm really hoping it does well.

Who knows, maybe Nintendo would be more willing to fool around with more of their crazy ideas, if they actually make them money.

 

[Briarios]

There is a ton of advertising on the Disney Channel and Disney XD -- they even have a contest running. So, Nintendo is at the very least trying ...

 

[PerZona]

It would probably bomb but I hope not! This game has potential for Nintendo, a shooter game that is finally different from the rest of the market.

 

[mclem]

They put it as far away from the 1 as they possibly could...

Game.

To be fair, I *think* they tend to sort the non-chart content into alphabetical order. I see Bayonetta at the far left of that shelf.

 

[SodiumBenzoate]

If they shoehorned Splatoon into an existing IP - let's say this was some sort of Mario sunshine spinoff, or a SSB style mashup battle game - do people think the sales would/will be significantly higher? It's an interesting thought experiment.


Personally I'm glad they used new IP, bit that may turn out to be a poor business decision.

 

[mclem]

If they shoehorned Splatoon into an existing IP - let's say this was some sort of Mario sunshine spinoff, or a SSB style mashup battle game - do people think the sales would/will be significantly higher? It's an interesting thought experiment.


Personally I'm glad they used new IP, bit that may turn out to be a poor business decision.

I've been wondering about this. My gut feeling is that throwing Mario into it would do better in general than an arbitrary 'new IP', but the IP they've gone with really seems to have caught the imagination, and I think in principle it's strong enough to hold its own.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Splatoon won't post CSGO/Black Ops concurrent users numbers.

You'd be insane to think it could compete with Counter-Strike or CoD period, let alone as a Wii U exclusive.

But I do think the game is gonna sell well enough to warrant a sequel, bare minimum.

 

[timetokill]

Comparing Sakurai to arguably the most elite and prolific developer in the video game industry?

Yeah I'm not sure what he was going for there

 

[SolicitorPirate]

Bit weird seeing all the negativity and pessimism here. Splatoon has gotten a lot of buzz online and the various global test fires appear to have been very well received. It's got Nintendo pushing it on the marketing front and from what I understand, has been performing very well in terms of Amazon rankings.

It obviously won't do Mario Kart or Smash numbers, but you'd be mad to think this game will bomb.

Spoiler

But then again, GAF has always been a bit silly about predicting sales. I remember people genuinely arguing that Bloodborne would post lifetime global sales of less than a million.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Bit weird seeing all the negativity and pessimism here. Splatoon has gotten a lot of buzz online and the various global test fires appear to have been very well received. It's got Nintendo pushing it on the marketing front and from what I understand, has been performing very well in terms of Amazon rankings.

It obviously won't do Mario Kart or Smash numbers, but you'd be mad to think this game will bomb.

Spoiler

But then again, GAF has always been a bit silly about predicting sales. I remember people genuinely arguing that Bloodborne would sell less than a million world wide LTD.

I think it will do well with the word of mouth, I can see the Miiverse folks going crazy with it.

 

[Jigorath]

Major? At best it's going to sell a million copies. That's pretty niche.

 

[Javier]

Serious question: Has there ever been a new gaming IP that has gotten as much fanart as Splatoon has before the game is even out? Because the fanart boom this game has gotten is certainly quite impressive.

 

[Neoxon]

Just an update.

I am expecting slightly better sales than wonderful 101. So no, not a major new IP.

It'll bomb.

It doesn't have Mario in it so I don't expect it to do very well.

It's on Wii U.

So no.

I honestly expect it to flop...

I hope that in wrong though

You mean the next major Nintendo bomba?

Of course not. I'll be amazed if it reaches 1 million.

I mean, did you expect Codename S.T.E.A.M. to be the next big Nintendo IP? The Wonderful 101?

I'm expecting Wonderful 101 levels of bomb.

I expect it to sell around the same as the wonderful 101. At very, very best pikmin 3. And that's me being optimistic. So no I don't think it will.

I'll be legit surprised if this game doesn't bomb. I guess we'd have to discuss what constitutes a bomb though considering the low user base. I should be clear though that the base isn't the reason I think it will bomb. I just don't think the game has a lot of appeal.

But yeah what is considered a bomb in sales for the wii u in terms of numbers.

we? What is neogaf, legion?

personally, no, I don't think so, but i wouldn't be shocked

I doubt it.

I'd be nice if it sold well because I allways like new Nintendo Ip's doing well.
But I don't see it appealing to that many people with it being a shooter focusing on online play on the WiiU. Even the Mario Kart online community got smaller after a few months (before the DLC), and that's was Mario Kart. Also, even kids that play online like basic online features like chat.

I have a WiiU and like it quite a bit, but I have no interest in Splatoon

I doubt it will do well.

This is a game for:

- shooter fans
- that dont need blood
- that dont mind "kiddy" looks
- that dont need voicechat
- that own a Wii U

Yep

Maybe about as well as wonderful 101

No it's going to flop. But it will be marketed by Nintendo as the next big one though.

I figure it's going to be a cult classic. Might not even sell enough to warrant a sequel.

Honestly I'm not even sure there is a market for Splatoon. A lot of young kids these days are already playing Call of Duty and talking all kinds of random shit online. I think Mario Kart and Smash are still so popular because you cant find anything as good elsewhere and I don't see Splatoon being able to pull away the younger generation from the already established shooters.

I could of course be horribly wrong but the market just seems so volatile these days.

A major IP that will unfortunately not sell well.

You might see an Inkling as a Assist Trophy in Smash 5

That's about it

I hope the game succeeds, but I'm betting it's gonna bomb. Shooter fans and cartoony squids splooging ink everywhere is something I would not fund if I were a businessman.

It looks awesome, but unfortunately I don't see it selling all that well. The Wii U market is just too small, it would need a pretty crazy attach rate for a new IP to warrant a sequel.

I think it'll be a one-and-done series.

Its totally going to flop. It doesnt have anything the mainstream audience want.

lol, no.

If it's any consolation, though, it will do better than Wonderful 101.

i expect it to bomb

Nah I expect it to be the next Wonderful 101

Majority of Nintendo fans will ignore it because Mario and co. ain't there

You can advertise something no one is really interested in as much as you want, people still won't buy it.

Personally I don't think so. I feel like they are coming a few years too late to the shooter game. I know that the game is somewhat unique from other shooters, but will it be a powerhouse to move consoles? I doubt it.

It will probably do average-ok first week sales, then disappear into the vortex of forgotten games hovering somewhere above its epicenter at Konami.

I'm not sure it will sell better than Bayonetta 2.

Really can't see it sadly.

Its not going to sell hardware. So its only whomever is playing wii-u now. There really is nothing else like it on the system so that will help. Pikman, Bayo and 101 is probably where is sits in sales. This month they really need to push the campaign part of this game or sales will be worse. Wii-u base is not multiplayer type in general. This really has the a good chance to tank. At best its a moderate success. The bar is pretty low.

I wish it was.
But I also wish to win the lottery.

I really do not see this doing well, but who knows, kids might go nuts over it.

It's going to bomb.

They're doing a Splatoon tour I think but I doubt it's going to do much for them. I'm going to wait for a price drop before picking it up.

I'm thinking it will be a light flop. Not terrible but it's not going to do all that well.

I think it'll bomb pretty hard. Not quite 101 bad, but close.

It's a Wii U game that doesn't have Mario, Zelda or Smash in the title. It could be the best game ever. It's still going to bomb. Best case scenario it becomes the Wii U's Tearaway.

At this point I'm in the camp that believes the game will bomb

I think sales wise it will do poorly.

It is not going to attract gamers from PS4/Xbone to get a WiiU to play this. There are WAY more games on those systems that are much more feature rich. Also it doesn't seem very competitive, and more "fun for everyone!" type of game.

I think there is a big deal for this game because its a first for a Nintendo IP to be a "shooter".

Considering how much of the Nintendo fanbase I've encountered over the years that loudly dismissed shooters and online play, I don't really expect it to do all that well, even among Nintendo's diehard crowd.

I predict a bomba, but I hope I'm wrong. Love the artstyle and the amiibos.

Also while the game looks good enough and appears to be fun, I think that it's not my thing. I'm probably not buying this or leaving it to the future.

It's launching on the Wii U...you honestly think it has a chance?

No.

I doubt it. I reckon it'll hit a couple of hundred thousand tops, lifetime. The super-core Nintendo crowd keeping the Wii U on life support will make some noise about it, as they are now.

Nope. It'll get lukewarm sales at best and be forgotten about.

I think it'll be a total bust, but those couple of months the playerbase sticks around are going to be a pretty sweet ride down.

I don't think so. It doesn't seem to babe enough new about it to make it hit and its launching on Wii u this hampering the ability of it to find a large audience.

I feel this game is gonna bomb... don't want it too.. but just feel like it's gonna bomb.. badly.

I was going to type the same exact thing.
At this point the only games on the Wii U I see selling very well are Mario and Zelda games. That's about it.

It will bomb, its a multiplayer game with no voice chat...

no new IPs could ever hope to become major on the WiiU, even less so a game like Splatoon. 200k LT ww tops is my prediction, and that will already be considered a sort of success

I don't expect it to be a major IP. It will probably be niche. Doubt that a sequel will be made either.

A shooter that's geared towards a shooter audience that doesn't buy shooter games? Yep this will be a definite bomb.

W101 was marketed in the UK both on prime time tv and in print. Splatoon hasn't had anything here yet, not even in the likes of the specialist retailers.

I dunno how well it's being marketed in the US or other parts of Europe but I can easily see an enormous bomb in the UK.

Expecting it to bomb big time.

Splatoon probably won't sell very well, I just hope it is as awesome as some of the other underachieving Wii U games. Hopefully the upcoming direct will get people more interested. I hope Nintendo go into more detail about the single player, its looking kind of bland right now.

I think it's going to go the way of W101.

I don't want it to, but it seems like everyone "the hype is real!" on GAF it's like dooming a game early.

I hope not though, it looks cool.

I don't think it'll sell very well. The name "Splatoon" + sort of pictures of paintball just looks kind of shovelware or mini-game like at first glance. I just think it's a hard sell unless you really market it hard, and Nintendo won't.

It's releasing on the wii U which is basically dead at this point. Even on a successful console this looks like it would be a niche game but on the wii U is be pretty shocked if t wasn't.

Hoping that isn't the case but I don't like the games chances.

I'm expecting something beetween Wonderfull 101 and Pikmin 3 sales.
Nintendo is going to advertise it because they don't have anything else for middle of 2015.

small potatoes

I hope it does well, but I doubt it.
No matter how well shooters gameplay feels natural to Nintendo's motion controllers, they have a history of failing on their recent consoles.

Remember Red Steel and The Conduit ?

PS: Can anyone help me find infos on the in-game rewards for each of the different Splatoon amiibos ? I can't find it online, and I need to know what to buy.
Also, will those rewards be exclusive or can they be unlocked even without the amiibos ?

Thanks !

this. Population meeting this profile must not be large imo.

I don't know how long it will last. Might burn out quick from it, hopefully I'm wrong though.

Seems like a flop in the making.

I think it'll bomb as well. I don't see it doing well.

I don't.

No.

It has Saturday morning cartoon charm. Maybe 'Ubisoft appealing to children' charm. Based on what I've seen it doesn't have Nintendo charm, not nearly.

Game won't break 500k worldwide.

Would bet my Wii U along all my Wii U games it will.

I don't.

Nintendo is incapable of creating and maintaining new mega-IPs, for the possible exception of Wii Sports. Wii Fit? Dead. Nintendogs/cats? Dead. Brain Age? Dead. They reserve their AAA efforts and resources on old mascots, then they wonder why those are the only games that sell.

Splatoon doesn't even have a good local co-op feature. 1vs1? WTF. Nintendo is suffering from some sort of identity crisis this generation. On one hand, they want to resurrect the local/family multiplayer experience, but on the other hand they're pushing new IPs that don't bring such experiences to households.

Hard to give birth to a new major IP on Wii U, it's a private circle for best selling titles. If we see the characters in Smash, though.. there could be a chance. Personally, I don't think so.

I honestly expect it to do about as well as the W101, inside the Nintendo bubble it may seem like the next big thing though...

Seeing as how i'm not Japanese nor "in the know" of said market, i was unaware of this...

Advertising can only get you that far when the game that you're advertising doesn't cater to the general masses.


I'm not "having fun" here, i'm only answering to the question in the OP... i don't see it becoming Nintendo's next big franchise at all, maybe it's next Pikmin perhaps?...

The idea is cool and all, but no way this will be considered a hit sales wise.

I honestly think it is going to be underwhelming. At Christmas this year, for kids who already have a PS4/X1, Wii Us may sell (especially if Zelda is on the horizon). But the problem is there is too much out there to pick up with it (MK8, Tropical Freeze, NSMBU, SM3DW, Smash), so it is likely to get grazed over on the shelf for other games by new console purchasers. I just don't see it taking off. I'm not a fan of these type of things, either, so I know I'm out on it. I imagine many others won't drop the cash for it, either. Especially with Witcher recently and Batman coming in a couple weeks.

I expect this to bomb and bomb hard.

no 4 player split screen killed it for me.

Of all the things that Nintendo could do to get back in the game, a third person shooter isn't it, no matter how creative it is.

Splatoon looks really fun (I kinda regret refusing to play it at E3), and would be great if it was a major success, but I kinda doubt it. Among other reasons, I hear the single player mode is like 3 hours long. No bueno.

The game is going to be the industries first Tsar Bomba

Prepare yourself for disappointment

It would have a greater chance to become a long-running IP if Nintendo released it on the 3DS instead or simultaneously.

With the Wii U, there is a greater chance that something like Splatoon will just be a one-off on a failure of a console.

I'm expecting it to be considered a sales flop after ~3 months.

I really want it to do well but I don't think it has a chance. Maybe if it was released on 3DS as well.

I expect Splatoon to fail miserably. As a concept, it's just flawed. Plain and simple. Children do not want to play first person shooters. It's been proven time and time again. The only way Nintendo can keep from going the way of SEGA is to produce games their primary audience wants to play. In my opinion, Nintendo made a huge mistake by letting Minecraft fall into the hands of Microsoft. Nintendo shouldn't make the same mistake twice. They should buy the Five Nights at Freddy's IP right now while they have the chance.

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

I see them staying on the assist trophy level of Nintendo franchises, but I would love to be proven wrong.

No.

It lacks magic... just kinda seems like a Mario Party mini-game they decided to try and monetize.

Saw ads for this game in front of all the movies we've seen lately at Cinemark. It looks insanely stupid and the most kid-made game ever from Nintendo.

I don't see it making big success, not on Wii U anyway.

I'm really intrigued as to what happens with this franchise. I'd like to see anything Nintendo attempt do well but nothing is really clicking. This will probably go the way of Bayonetta 2, TW101, and Pikmin 3.

i own a wii u and have absolutely zero interest in this game, don't get the hype on here. expecting it to perform poorly and don't expect many people will be talking about it a couple of months after release.

I guess my expectation is that this game will not have a sequel so whatever the sales numbers are, they will not be large enough for Nintendo to continue the franchise.

I don't.

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

I don't, after Saturday's little online demo experience. It's fun but there's no way it's gonna latch on with the likes of Zelda or Mario attachment.

EDIT: Yeah, 2 million on the Wii U's install base sounds like a pipe dream.

It will probably be an awesome game that no one will play. Just like a lot of wiiu games unfortunately.

Got the propane & the grill is starting to heat up.

 

[Neoxon]

I expect this to bomb and bomb hard.

no 4 player split screen killed it for me.

So you're saying you wanted to play the game at 15fps. Not to mention the issues of no map (which Battle Dojo had to work around). The game wasn't built for multiplayer, even the Battle Dojo had to be a minigame of sorts in able to work (at the cost of half the framerate).

 

[SolicitorPirate]

Serious question: Has there ever been a new gaming IP that has gotten as much fanart as Splatoon has before the game is even out? Because the fanart boom this game has gotten is certainly quite impressive.

I'm sure some exist, but there's none that I can think of. The Inkling design and overall aesthetic were a massive hit. Hell, even the much maligned 'You're a kid now, you're a squid now' ad has become a meme.

 

[OCD Guy]

I think this game will do better than a lot of people think.

I highly doubt it will go under the radar like wonderful 101 or pikmin 3 in terms of sales.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me on bit if ends up being the best selling game on Wii U.

Top 3 selling Wii u games so far are apparently Mario kart 8 as the best selling, then new super Mario bros u, and then Nintendo land.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

I think this game will do better than a lot of people think.

I highly doubt it will go under the radar like wonderful 101 or pikmin 3 in terms of sales.

Yep, it will do fine, just not gangbusters like Kart.

 

[LOCK]

Just to clarify, we don't know if DKTF or Pikmin 3 has sold a million or not. Nintendo didn't add any titles to the corporate info pages, and they didn't state it was the only million sellers.

I'm almost positive DK has shipped over a million.

 

[cHinzo]

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

~added to the pile~

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

2001 - Animal Crossing
2001 - Luigi's Mansion
2001 - Pikmin
2005 - Nintendogs
2006 - Wii Sports
2006 - Wii Play
2006 - Big Brain Academy
2007 - Wii Fit
2008 - Wii Music
2010 - Flipnote Studio
2010 - Nintendo DS Guide
2011 - Steel Diver
2012 - Nintendo Land
2013 - NES Remix
2015 - Splatoon

Indeed, it's been a long time since EAD developed a notable character IP.

 

[OCD Guy]

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

Maybe to the average call of duty player, but they dismiss EVERY Nintendo game because of how it looks.

Splatoon doesn't look out of place compared to other Nintendo games.

Either way this thread will be good to look back on once sales results are back...

 

[GamerJM]

Definitely Pikmin-tier IMO.

So you're saying you wanted to play the game at 15fps. Not to mention the issues of no map (which Battle Dojo had to work around). The game wasn't built for multiplayer, even the Battle Dojo had to be a minigame of sorts in able to work (at the cost of half the framerate).

Halo 4 ran at a really low framerate split screen and I still played a ton of it.

 

[OCD Guy]

I do wonder for those that think Splatoon will flop, what they think the likes of Yoshi will do then??

I reckon Splatoon will be the best selling 2015 release on the Wii U

 

[Junahu]

I don't have any doubt that this game will do pretty well for itself. It'll be a slow-burn though.

My worry is that they won't use the I.P beyond this one idea. A sequel for the next console, sure. But the I.P feels so strongly attached to its concept, that I can't imagine much else spinning off of it.

Maybe some location-based tagging in a streetpass game, or an application for creating spin-art. I dunno...

 

[mo60]

I think this game will do better than a lot of people think.

I highly doubt it will go under the radar like wonderful 101 or pikmin 3 in terms of sales.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me on bit if ends up being the best selling game on Wii U.

Top 3 selling Wii u games so far are apparently Mario kart 8 as the best selling, then new super Mario bros u, and then Nintendo land.

I don't think it will sell 5+ million. It will sell enough to end up in the top 5 WiiU game probably.

 

[Einbroch]

Just an update.

This is kinda sad.

 

[shaowebb]

This game is already a big deal for a lot of people. You don't divert all the attention at E3 by being dull. Sorry bro shooter folks and general haters...this thing appeals heavily to folks with its gameplay and is gonna sell. It already IS big.

 

[Terrell]

It will sell well enough to warrant a sequel and try again for a larger sales response in the next go-around.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

If we're talking how it looks, then we should probably just ignore the mountains of fanart.

 

[Exile20]

Definitely Pikmin-tier IMO.



Halo 4 ran at a really low framerate split screen and I still played a ton of it.

This is 2015 dude.

Low FPS is not acceptable and 60 fps should be close to standard in certain genres.

 

[noshten]

Nope this is easily going to outsell XBX and Mario Maker

My original prediction was 1 million by the end of the year, now I'm expecting between 2 and 2.5 million.

 

[J@hranimo]

I guess I'll join in on the fun of this thread

I'm thinking moderate success. Slightly above average sales. Will have some sort of legs going into 2016 if DLC goes into next year AND we'll see a sequel on the next console.

It won't flop lol.