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HuffPo: "How Paul Ryan Will Pick the Next President" (with a GOP Spoiler Candidate)

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Macho Madness

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Precisely how I see something like that potentially playing out:

 

Ninja Scooter

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At this point it feels like the smart republicans know this election is lost, but might feel like they have to make moves like this to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump and other radical parts of the party, so that they can still hold positions of power and authority and be taken seriously in whatever is left of the GOP after Trump and his followers burn it to the ground. Once Trump gets his ass handed to him the party could realize being as radical as possible is a stupid idea and come running back to Mitt and co.
 

Orbis Tabula

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At this point it feels like the smart republicans know this election is lost, but might feel like they have to make moves like this to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump and other radical parts of the party, so that they can still hold positions of power and authority and be taken seriously in whatever is left of the GOP after Trump and his followers burn it to the ground. Once Trump gets his ass handed to him the party could realize being as radical as possible is a stupid idea and come running back to Mitt and co.

Yeah, makes sense from this perspective. They wouldn't run it to win, they'd do it for an alibi.
 

Chuck

Still without luck
Feb 19, 2011
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Will history repeat itself?!?!?!

In 1836, the Whig Party nominated different candidates in different regions in the hopes of splintering the electoral vote and denying Martin Van Buren, the Democratic candidate, a majority in the Electoral College, thereby throwing the election into the Whig-controlled House. However, this strategy failed with Van Buren winning majorities of both the popular and electoral vote.

Yes.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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People wanting a 4 way electoral battle in the GE election do know that if no one gets 270 electoral votes, it goes to the House to pick the President?

As an aside, there have been two four way battles before.

1824 resulted in the election being sent to the House of Representatives. Interestingly, all four candidates were from the same party. The Federalist Party had died off leaving the Republican Party (now typically referred to as the Democratic-Republicans to distinguish them from the modern Republican Party, which wasn't founded until 1854). Essentially the party system was collapsing and the result was chaos. To date, this is the last time a presidential election was decided by the House of Representatives (it also happened in 1800, but under very different circumstances).

1860 was rather famous for sending Abraham Lincoln to the White House and leading to the Civil War. The Democrats had split into Southern and Northern factions, and the election was also contested by the short-lived Constitutional Union Party (which ran strongly in the "border states" between the North and South). Lincoln managed to win a majority in the Electoral College with just under 40% of the vote. Although this is popularly attributed to the other candidates splitting the anti-Lincoln vote, had all those votes coalesced into a single ticket, Lincoln still would have won the Electoral College because his votes were extremely efficiently distributed across states. He won a bunch of Northern states with 50-60% of the vote, while receiving virtually no votes in the South. In short, Lincoln had astonishingly few "wasted" votes from an Electoral College perspective.

One could argue that 1836 was a five-way race, but that's a little misleading because the Whig Party's strategy was to run four different candidates in different parts of the country to try and get one of them elected by the House of Representatives when no one got a majority. In effect, there were four different two-way races taking place in different regions. You could say it's somewhat analogous to the anti-Trump strategy Mitt Romney advocated in the Republican primary this year.
 

Wowfunhappy

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Jun 2, 2013
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As others have said, the Republican Party would never run a second candidate. It would be stupid.

However, let's say that there IS a brokered convention--which is still perfectly plausible--and the nomination is then taken AWAY from Trump--which is also plausible--despite him winning more states than any other candidate.

In that case, Trump is likely to run as a third party candidate himself. And then, I could see this theory becoming a reality.
 

Brinbe

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They're fucked either way. You force Trump out and then you have a highly marginalized and niche party without the electorate and numbers (aka the dumb base that voted GOP because of social issues) that made up the real workhorses of the party. They'll get slaughtered.

They give Trump the nomination and they're screwed anyway since they scare away every reasonable voting demographic. What does Trump top out at 35-40% of the voting pop? That's landslide territory for Dems.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Mar 16, 2007
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I think the theory is that you run in one of the already established third parties, like the Constitution party or something. If they let you. They've usually done the legwork to get on most ballots.



Now Buzz I can get in to.

Sore Loser laws in some states don't allow you to appear in a primary for one party and against in the general for another.
 

Game Guru

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Dec 14, 2010
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Precisely how I see something like that potentially playing out:


Yep... Hell, it could be extended to Hillary Clinton voters being essentially Democratic voters and the debate between Clinton and Sanders is about how far left the Democratic Party should go. It is the reasonable debate between a Centrist Democrat and a Progressive Democrat. However, Trump & Cruz has succeeded in answering how far right the Republican Party should go. It is unfortunate for the Republican Establishment that the answer ended up being all the way right. I fear Trump and people like him are the future of the opposition to the Democrats, be it the Republicans or the Trump Party.
 

GoldenEye 007

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The Big D
As others have said, the Republican Party would never run a second candidate. It would be stupid.

However, let's say that there IS a brokered convention--which is still perfectly plausible--and the nomination is then taken AWAY from Trump--which is also plausible--despite him winning more states than any other candidate.

In that case, Trump is likely to run as a third party candidate himself. And then, I could see this theory becoming a reality.

Trump doesn't take votes away from Hillary, though. At least by no conventional wisdom other than potentially some of the fringe Bernie base. So I still wouldn't see how a Trump 3rd party run results in a House election.

Only way this is plausible is if the Democratic base becomes split.
 

ISWThunder

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At this point it feels like the smart republicans know this election is lost, but might feel like they have to make moves like this to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump and other radical parts of the party, so that they can still hold positions of power and authority and be taken seriously in whatever is left of the GOP after Trump and his followers burn it to the ground. Once Trump gets his ass handed to him the party could realize being as radical as possible is a stupid idea and come running back to Mitt and co.

That's definitely the most interesting party of this for me. If the GOP doesnt think Trump can win the GE (which I think they don't) then they have no chance with another candidate. You can't deny that Trump has rabid support, and opposing him like this would assure that the GOP's voter base is split.

So realistically, the GOP needs to find a way to keep their control of congress. Personally, I feel like a straight Hillary vs Trump ticket would be beneficial to the democrats in this respect. While running 2 GOP candidates would sink the GE race, I wonder if it would bolster their numbers in the other races.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
At this point it feels like the smart republicans know this election is lost, but might feel like they have to make moves like this to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump and other radical parts of the party, so that they can still hold positions of power and authority and be taken seriously in whatever is left of the GOP after Trump and his followers burn it to the ground. Once Trump gets his ass handed to him the party could realize being as radical as possible is a stupid idea and come running back to Mitt and co.

Might also help save some of their down ballot to have the conservatives that will never vote for trump or hillary have a reason to get out and vote.

There's also the possibility that they don't want Trump to win, as that'd probably fundamentally shift the party itself away from the policies that establishment republicans think are core.
 

Geg

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Nov 26, 2014
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People wanting a 4 way electoral battle in the GE election do know that if no one gets 270 electoral votes, it goes to the House to pick the President?

Not that I wanted a 4 way electoral battle, but no I didn't know that before this thread. I don't remember that particular fact ever coming up in school
 

Abounder

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Jun 6, 2013
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This could only work if the spoiler wins Texas and Ohio (Cruz/Kasich on a 'Stump Trump' campaign?), plus Hillary would have to lose Florida.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
How well would a hypothetical 3rd party do if it was for small government, fiscally conservative but socially progressive?

Extremely terribly. It's probably the worst combination you could have electorally.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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Not that I wanted a 4 way electoral battle, but no I didn't know that before this thread. I don't remember that particular fact ever coming up in school

The best part is that the House votes in an extremely stupid way. Instead of each Representative having one vote, each state has one vote. They must choose among the top three vote getters in the Electoral College, and to win you need the votes of a majority of states. You can imagine the chaos that could occur if there are a significant number of states whose delegations are split evenly among Democrats and Republicans. Oh, and prior to passage of the 20th Amendment, the votes were cast by the outgoing House of Representatives.
 
Jan 20, 2010
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If Mitt failed to win almost any swing state in 2012, how the fuck would he manage to do it with Trump eating up a lot more of his support than of Hillary's?
 

Matt

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This could only work if the spoiler wins Texas and Ohio (Cruz/Kasich on a 'Stump Trump' campaign?), plus Hillary would have to lose Florida.
No, that still wouldn't work. The days of a Dem needing either Ohio or Florida are long since past.

Again, this article is really fucking stupid.
 
May 19, 2005
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Sure, why not.

It lets Hilary just walk right into the presidency because Trump and the GOP third party would tear each other for conservative votes. Sounds good to me.
 

Pyrokai

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What a joke of a democracy.

Can there be a 4th candidate? I want Bernie vs Clinton vs Trump vs Romney, lol
 

Jonm1010

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Feb 13, 2005
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If this strategy is pursued, I think the Republicans are in trouble.

For all their, frankly, brilliant moves at the state and federal level to retain power and achieve their ends despite a shrinking demographic base, this is remarkably short sighted.

So they do this and Mitt comes in third place. Best case scenario realistically they win a few states as spoiler. Then the House of Representatives, tea party loonies and all, contentiously end up with a vote that gives the presidency to the third pace candidate.

Pissing off everyone but the small percentage that rallied around Mitt. Probably even upsetting a few Mitt voters who think it is ethically unfair. Then what???

Because shit sure as hell isnt going back to normal after that. Trump supporters would be fucking livid! Trump is also not one to likely take losing in that fashion very well and would probably actively feed the flames. Democrats would be beyond pissed. The party would be in an even worse position long term and Mitt would be DOA.

And if this doesn't end up in best case scenario land, the republicans have essentielly proven Trump right on his rhetoric about the establishment and the results will show voters buy into him as their leader and not the establishment, permanatelt weakening them.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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If Mitt failed to win almost any swing state in 2012, how the fuck would he manage to do it with Trump eating up a lot more of his support than of Hillary's?

That's what's so crazy about this whole idea. Running two (de facto) Republican candidates won't siphon off votes from Clinton, they'd just cannibalize each other's support. The only reason for Republicans to try and run one of their own as a "third party" candidate would be to help downballot candidates if they decide the presidential election is a lost cause (basically, give anti-Trump Republicans someone to vote for so they'll vote for GOP House/Senate/state/local candidates instead of staying home).
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jul 31, 2007
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What a terrible article.

No, a GOP-chosen thirs party candidate will NOT take any voters away from Hillary. What an absurd scenario.
 

Primethius

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Jan 20, 2008
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What a stupid article.

If it's Hillary vs Trump vs Mit (or any other Repub candidate), Hillary is going to win that election even harder.

And Bernie's not dumb, he's not gonna run third party.
 

Maledict

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Feb 16, 2013
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The only reason they might do this is to give them a moderate republican who can campaign for downticket senate and house races. That would allow them to put some distance between vulnerable candidates and Trump.

It wouldn't ever be to try and actually win the presidency - it would just be to isolate Trump and shore up republican votes for downticket candidates.
 

echoshifting

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The only reason they might do this is to give them a moderate republican who can campaign for downticket senate and house races. That would allow them to put some distance between vulnerable candidates and Trump.

It wouldn't ever be to try and actually win the presidency - it would just be to isolate Trump and shore up republican votes for downticket candidates.

The real question in this scenario is if the damage control would be effective enough to justify alienating Trump's base.
 

Square2015

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I think they'll draft Jeb! Bush If the DEM's pick another cLinton it will be a sign the establishment has won out (in both parties) and the GOP will go with (another) Bush (Romney's not interested in running again anyways).
 

TheFuzz

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Jul 12, 2015
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Am I crazy? Wouldn't a state like Ohio go to Clinton in the GE? A potential third-party candidate with Kasich on the ticket may very well fall Republican. A couple more states following Ohio's lead could be disastrous for both candidates, and give me the rapture election I'm hoping for.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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Am I crazy? Wouldn't a state like Ohio go to Clinton in the GE? A potential third-party candidate with Kasich on the ticket may very well fall Republican. A couple more states following Ohio's lead could be disastrous for both candidates, and give me the rapture election I'm hoping for.

Sure, if it's Clinton v. Trump v. Kasich, then maybe Kasich takes Ohio (though I wouldn't bet on it), but he'd mostly take votes from Trump and cause Clinton to win a bunch of states she otherwise wouldn't with a plurality of the vote. Again, see 1912 for how this works out in practice.
 

NimbusD

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The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.
.

And this, my friends, is why we have and always will have a two party system. People who think the constitution is the be-all-end-all don't really realize that it has some pretty fucking stupid shit in there that guarantees we have a clusterfuck of a gov't.
 

SenorArdilla

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This is stupid. Running a third candidate isn't going to steal votes away from Clinton. Numero Tres is going to end up eating Trump's voter base and pissing him off.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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The last time this ever happened was because there was like, 4 or 5 viable parties. Almost 200 years ago.

Technically there was just one viable party, the Republicans (or "Democratic-Republicans" as they are often now called) but they couldn't agree on a nominee and so there were four viable candidates, all technically from the same party. The factions that caused the party to split eventually wound up coalescing into the Democratic Party and the Whig Party.
 

Downhome

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Mar 19, 2005
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This applies to this topic. Mitt Romney just posted this on FB...

This week, in the Utah nominating caucus, I will vote for Senator Ted Cruz.

Today, there is a contest between Trumpism and Republicanism. Through the calculated statements of its leader, Trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. I am repulsed by each and every one of these.

The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention. At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.

I like Governor John Kasich. I have campaigned with him. He has a solid record as governor. I would have voted for him in Ohio. But a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail.

I will vote for Senator Cruz and I encourage others to do so as well, so that we can have an open convention and nominate a Republican.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Mar 19, 2012
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Am I crazy? Wouldn't a state like Ohio go to Clinton in the GE? A potential third-party candidate with Kasich on the ticket may very well fall Republican. A couple more states following Ohio's lead could be disastrous for both candidates, and give me the rapture election I'm hoping for.

If they did run a third party candidate to counter Trump we'd see a landslide for Clinton, the sort we haven't seen since Reagan.
 

lenovox1

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Feb 13, 2009
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Am I crazy? Wouldn't a state like Ohio go to Clinton in the GE? A potential third-party candidate with Kasich on the ticket may very well fall Republican. A couple more states following Ohio's lead could be disastrous for both candidates, and give me the rapture election I'm hoping for.

That's one state.

What "couple of other states" are you talking about? Be specific.

Because I specifically want to show you how it is very improbable for him to win any other state if he's polling this poorly against Trump right now. And how, using the current primary numbers, a third candidate that's a conservative or neoconservative Republican could put Clinton in play in nearly every state.
 

Maledict

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Feb 16, 2013
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I love the fact that clearly a memo went out amongst the Republican elites about the terminology for the convention. I think I've seen "open convention" used more time in the last week than in the last 20 years. I don't think I've EVER heard someone call it an open convention before now.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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.

And this, my friends, is why we have and always will have a two party system. People who think the constitution is the be-all-end-all don't really realize that it has some pretty fucking stupid shit in there that guarantees we have a clusterfuck of a gov't.

Hey, at least that bit you quoted from the 12th Amendment was better than the old system where each whoever finished first in the Electoral Vote became President and whoever finished second became Vice President. That led to the other time a presidential election was decided by the House.
 
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