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HuffPo: "How Paul Ryan Will Pick the Next President" (with a GOP Spoiler Candidate)

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Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
Feb 19, 2008
44,007
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Republicans need to run Bernie Sanders as a 3rd party Independent candidate with John Kasich as his running mate. They win Vermont and Ohio maybe 2 other states and chaos ensues.

That's just crazy enough to work.
 

Yen

Member
Jul 23, 2009
16,583
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It's cool that you can't associate racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity, threats and violence with the Republican Party.
 

Pop-O-Matic

Banned
Jan 7, 2012
16,983
2
0
Democratic Convention 2016

Hillary comes out to rapturous applause.

She has her big speech, and, just before she ends it, A familiar face rushes the stage...

Kanye West: "Yo, Hillary. I'mma let you finish, but I'm gonna run the best Presidential campaign of all time! OF ALL TIME!!!"

Clinton: "I'm sure you will, but this isn't the time to talk about 2020."

Kanye: "2020? Naw, man. The GOOD Party starts RIGHT NOW!!!"

Kanye 2016 banners are unfurled from the rafters as Jesus Walks plays to a completely dumbstruck crowd.
 

Macho Madness

Member
Aug 18, 2007
16,553
0
1,270
Democratic Convention 2016

Hillary comes out to rapturous applause.

She has her big speech, and, just before she ends it, A familiar face rushes the stage...

Kanye West: "Yo, Hillary. I'mma let you finish, but I'm gonna run the best Presidential campaign of all time! OF ALL TIME!!!"

Clinton: "I'm sure you will, but this isn't the time to talk about 2020."

Kanye: "2020? Naw, man. The GOOD Party starts RIGHT NOW!!!"

Kanye 2016 banners are unfurled from the rafters as Jesus Walks plays to a completely dumbstruck crowd.

 

Hazmat

Member
Sep 5, 2005
6,767
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This is mind-numbingly stupid. Clinton would get over 400 EVs easily if Trump and Some Republican split the conservative vote.
 

echoshifting

Banned
Mar 29, 2005
29,259
1
0
Vancouver, WA
The fact that Mitt keeps changing his mind about a stop-Trump strategy shows just how badly the Republicans are flailing about.

This whole clusterfuck is such a perfect example of "between a rock and a hard place" that it should be Exhibit A for that phrase from now on

Everything they can do is worse than everything else.
 

lenovox1

Member
Feb 13, 2009
7,922
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740
.

And this, my friends, is why we have and always will have a two party system. People who think the constitution is the be-all-end-all don't really realize that it has some pretty fucking stupid shit in there that guarantees we have a clusterfuck of a gov't.

Multiple parties would be viable in the presidential race if all the states gave electors proportionally instead of giving them solely to one candidate. That's a state-by-state issue.
 

Chris R

Member
Jul 31, 2007
43,506
0
1,210
Anchorage Alaska
Democratic Convention 2016

Hillary comes out to rapturous applause.

She has her big speech, and, just before she ends it, A familiar face rushes the stage...

Kanye West: "Yo, Hillary. I'mma let you finish, but I'm gonna run the best Presidential campaign of all time! OF ALL TIME!!!"

Clinton: "I'm sure you will, but this isn't the time to talk about 2020."

Kanye: "2020? Naw, man. The GOOD Party starts RIGHT NOW!!!"

Kanye 2016 banners are unfurled from the rafters as Jesus Walks plays to a completely dumbstruck crowd.

Sorry, but Mr. West isn't old enough yet :(

edit: nevermind, I could have sworn you needed to be 40.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
May 27, 2013
7,811
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Are EVs assigned to >50%s, or to first past the post?

Because Trump + Mitt running is exactly how Hillary runs to a clean sweep, if it's the second.

Okay, clean sweep ain't happening, but 400-500 hell yes.

e: It's indeed first past the post. This is completely idiotic, running two candidates would mean they'd have to split the states to run in which, and still get 270 EVs from hillary's iron grip.
And Trump isn't going to run a distraction tactic to get a republican elected. He'd rather endorse hillary out of spite before that, or run in all states, making the second republican runner a net loss, or just tell his base to abstain and that he's founding his own political party.
 
Jul 6, 2005
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The only reason they might do this is to give them a moderate republican who can campaign for downticket senate and house races. That would allow them to put some distance between vulnerable candidates and Trump.

It wouldn't ever be to try and actually win the presidency - it would just be to isolate Trump and shore up republican votes for downticket candidates.

Couldn't this backfire too though? Knowing that the presidency is out of the question might significantly depress republican voter turn out.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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Multiple parties would be viable in the presidential race if all the states gave electors proportionally instead of giving them solely to one candidate. That's a state-by-state issue.

You'd still have the issue of high potential for elections to get sent to the House of Representatives if no one gets a majority of Electoral Votes, which is itself a pretty significant pressure against third parties.
 

The Lamonster

Member
Aug 12, 2007
39,651
6
1,110
37
St. Louis
The main reason this won't work is because of the massive organization the Clinton campaign has been building. No one will be able to out-spend her or match her ground game during the election, especially after getting such a late start.

So basically...please proceed, Governor.
 

lenovox1

Member
Feb 13, 2009
7,922
0
740
Are EVs assigned to >50%s, or to first past the post?

Because Trump + Mitt running is exactly how Hillary runs to a clean sweep, if it's the second.

Okay, clean sweep ain't happening, but 400-500 hell yes.

The winner of the popular vote in almost every state except Maine and Nebraska wins all the electors in that state.
 
Jul 2, 2011
34,373
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North Carolina
I've said this in other threads but the absolute worst thing the Elephants can do is stealing the nomination from Trump through a backroom deal in Clevelandl or running a third candidate against him.

De-legitimizing the democratic process by ignoring the overwhelming voice of their electorate would be incredibly destructive, short-sighted, and quite frankly could cause irreparable damage to the party going forward.

Their best bet would be to let Trump get the nomination with no gimmicks and run his race against Clinton, which he will lose barring scandal or catastrophe. Sure, they take big losses in the short term and in the process, maybe lose the Senate, definitely lose the Supreme Court, and set back the conservative movement in this country for a few years.

But sending Trump out there to die now allows the Establishment to say "See! This kind of foolishness* can't and won't win us elections. We need to get the party back to its core values" and make the changes down the line to the platform in order to remain a viable party in the 21st Century.

(*Yes that foolishness is largely of their own creation. Over the last half-century, they've at best looked the over way and at worst subtly embraced the ignorance, hatred, bigotry that fuels Trump. They had no problem with Trumpettes when they were voting for their candidates)

The White House is lost for them either path they take. It doesn't matter if they let Trump run unopposed, they steal the nom from him, run a 3rd candidate against him, or by some miracle Cruz actually wins the nom outright (he's an even worse candidate in a GE for multiple reasons), they won't beat Hilary Clinton unless she's in handcuffs or ISIS stages an invasion of the US in the next 8 months. But depending on how they play this, they could either lose big in the immediate future and have a stronger party down the line or destroy the party as we know it.
 

wildfire

Banned
Jun 5, 2011
15,915
1
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I've said this in other threads but the absolute worst thing the Elephants can do is stealing the nomination from Trump through a backroom deal in Clevelandl or running a third candidate against him.

De-legitimizing the democratic process by ignoring the overwhelming voice of their electorate would be incredibly destructive,

The thing is that it isn't overwhelming. Secondly the faction that hates Trump is too large to ignore which is why Trump can't even get enough Republican vote to be even a threat for any Democrat.

The GOP knows the people they will alienate are only a minority of their party. A third is too much to antagonize but they aren't going to allow the minority to control Republican policy for the next 4 years.
 

Jack Random

Member
Nov 10, 2004
2,145
1
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NYC
randomoffenses.blogspot.com
GOP will wait until Clinton secures the nomination and then indite her. Potentially the same night, next day at the latest. their goal is to cripple and embarrass the DNC.

With this in place, they can run a moderate vs Trump and make it a win-win for them
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Oct 30, 2007
12,846
1
1,050
What states would a third party candidate take away from Hillary that the GOP nominee would not already win?

This whole premise relies on the third candidate taking more votes away from Hillary than from Trump. Not gonna happen...
 

Wowfunhappy

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Jun 2, 2013
6,845
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Trump doesn't take votes away from Hillary, though. At least by no conventional wisdom other than potentially some of the fringe Bernie base. So I still wouldn't see how a Trump 3rd party run results in a House election.

Only way this is plausible is if the Democratic base becomes split.

But lets assume something happens to move the entire country to the right--something that's unlikely but by no means implausible. A terrorist attack, for instance--not necessarily in the US. Or even a major snowstorm that's large enough to have a serious effect on turnout.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Oct 30, 2007
12,846
1
1,050
But lets assume something happens to move the entire country to the right--something that's unlikely but by no means implausible. A terrorist attack, for instance--not necessarily in the US. Or even a major snowstorm that's large enough to have a serious effect on turnout.

A heatwave
 

Aaron Strife

Banned
Oct 10, 2006
26,804
3
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Okay, let's use Obama v. Romney 2012 as a benchmark.

Assuming Hillary holds onto Obama's total and Thirdparty McDumbass (probably Romney himself) splits his votes evenly with Trump, here's what the electoral college would look like:



Of course, there's no way it would be an even split - a viable third party candidate would probably swing a small-but-not-insignificant portion of the Democrat's votes, and I would expect the breakdown to look more like 50-30-20 rather than 50-25-25. But regardless, this will either have the effect of the third party candidate winning enough states to keep both candidates under the 270 threshold (not very likely) OR leading to Hillary swinging a bunch of states that don't usually vote Democratic because she'll hold onto 40% of the vote in high-minority states like MS, AL, SC etc. while the two idiots go 30-30.

In other words - please proceed, governor.

The benefit of a third party Republican run isn't so much giving them a shot at winning the White House, it's to let moderate, vulnerable Republicans in other offices be able to support a presidential candidate without tying themselves to Trump.
 
Dec 22, 2011
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But lets assume something happens to move the entire country to the right--something that's unlikely but by no means implausible. A terrorist attack, for instance--not necessarily in the US. Or even a major snowstorm that's large enough to have a serious effect on turnout.

It still benefits Clinton to have the conservative vote split. In a three way race she could win with 40% of the vote. You'd have to hope for something so big it can overcome that effect. If something that big happens then all bets are off and this article is still pointless.
 

Kopyii

Member
Jun 29, 2012
2,284
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555
Maryland
All this would accomplish is a guaranteed Hillary presidency and a Republican insurrection from Trump supporters furious that the party would go against the voters' wishes.

Be smart GOP, let Trump lose on his own merits and blame his racism and comparative economic liberalism for the results. Or don't actually, it's more fun watching you guys trying to play damage control and failing miserably.
 
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