I don't get it. If you read articles, or even this thread, history isn't repeating itself. People were arguing in 2004 that the PSP would streamroll the DS. That isn't happening. If anything, people today are arguing that the 3DS will steamroll the Vita. Totally different. I thought the psp would beat out the ds in 2004. This time I am surprised at the anemic start of the 3DS and question if the Vita is even viable in the west. I wonder if either handheld will do as well as previously.
Honestly, I think the iOS has changed things. You can get a ipod touch for $199 which is cheaper than either handheld. The ipod touch is more popular than either of these handhelds. Teens don't think I want a 3DS. They think I want an ipod touch. Casuals wont think, I want a 3DS, they will say I have my iphone/android/whatever and I am fine with the casual games that come out for it. That takes a significant chunk out of the casual market for the 3DS that helped propel the DS into its amazing sales. I have no clue what nintendo will come up with to tap into the market again, but they better find it if they are expecting the type of success that the DS has.
When it comes to the Vita, I have no clue what to expect. I think it will do fine in Japan as the PSP has, and will be the one market that it may beat out the 3DS if things go right for it. The question is whether it can find a market in the west. I just don't know.
I actually prefer handheld gaming to console gaming. I got a gb pocket, gba, gbasp, and a psp. Will I be getting either handheld? At first, I thought no, I will just stick to gaming on my smartphone; showing just how much smartphones have changed things. Then with the shockingly low price of the vita, I thought I had to get one just based on the value. I don't know if it will do well here, but I will take a chance. I hope I wont be disappointed as I was with the psp, and luckily it seems that sony are correcting the mistakes that made psp this time around for the vita. Well shall see.