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[Nirolak]

Charlequin and I have been discussing a possibility based on recent Xbox rumor that we felt could use its own focused thread.

Essentially, the concept/speculation is that Microsoft is planning to release two separate, completely different Xbox branded products next generation, each of which are roughly as detailed below.

Product 1: The Xbox Set Top Box
-Called something like Xbox TV or Xbox Loop.
-Bundled with Kinect, but may not have a regular Xbox controller.
-Based around the concept of Kinect powered home entertainment, focusing heavily on things like Netflix, movies, music, and sports.
-Also plays Kinect only games and applications targeted at casual users. Note: These would have to be made for this system, not emulated.
-Does not have an optical drive or a hard drive, but does have a usable amount of flash storage.
-Is based around an ARM architecture with some specialized co-processors to help Kinect functionality/games/apps.
-Does not play Xbox 360 games and will not play Xbox 720 games unless they're iOS-esque universal apps.
-The goal of this product is to be an all in one home entertainment setup for casual users and help Microsoft take over the living room.
-Designed to compete with products like the Wii and Apple TV.
-Unveiled at a consumer electronics focused event like CES.
-Costs around $200 or less.
-Releasing Fall 2012.
Edit: -Would be compatible with Kinect 2, which isn't compatible with the Xbox 360.
Supporting Rumors:
1.) Digital Foundry's two SKU rumor, one without an optical drive, hard drive, or Xbox 360 game compatibility, but focuses on Kinect.
2.) MSNerd Xbox Loop description: ARM based device, smaller and cheaper than Xbox 360.
3.) This Week In Tech: New Xbox releasing at the end of 2012, announced around CES, has Apple like integration with Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8.
Edit: 4.) Kinect 2 is a lot more advanced, is not compatible with Xbox 360, but is bundled with the next Xbox.

Product 2: The Xbox 3
-Called something that makes it clear it is the traditional successor to the Xbox 360.
-May or may not be bundled with Kinect, but definitely has a dual analog stick controller.
-Focused on the core gaming market.
-Aims to compete with the PlayStation 4.
-Has a more traditional, high powered hardware architecture such as an IBM Power7 CPU and a DX11 AMD GPU.
-Has an optical drive and a hard drive.
-Unveiled at an event like E3 2012/E3 2013 or some kind of MTV TV special.
-Costs around $400 for the base model, possibly has a more expensive Elite SKU.
-Releasing Fall 2013 or Early 2014.
Supporting Rumors:
1.) Digital Foundry's two SKU rumor, one without an optical drive, hard drive, or Xbox 360 game compatibility, but focuses on Kinect.
2.) CliffyB: Expect to see things related to next gen around 2014.
3.) Develop: Xbox Next launching in Fall 2013, possibly Early 2014.
4.) Eurogamer: Next Xbox releasing in Fall 2013.

Why would Microsoft ever do this?
The answer to this is essentially that it lets them release a really cheap Xbox/Kinect product as a home entertainment device without having to impact the hardware power of their core targeted system. Microsoft has recently had a lot of success in both the casual and core domains, but these domains often have very different, opposing demands that make it hard to launch a new product that immediately satisfies both audiences. Trying to appease both audiences runs the risk of creating a product that doesn't really satisfy either, and releasing a product that only satisfies one audience means they run a high risk of losing the other audience to one of their competitors.

Edit: How Does This Interact With Windows 8?
Microsoft currently has a Windows 8 marketplace planned that sells applications that run on Windows 8, Windows 8 tablets, Windows 8 ARM devices, and Windows 8 phones. Given that there is now a commercial SDK for Kinect coming out, this would allow Microsoft to let developers sell Kinect apps for the new Xbox TV system. Since the proposed Xbox TV system runs on an ARM architecture, it would make this process significantly easier since Windows 8 is currently only built to handle ARM and x86, neither of which the Xbox 360 uses. This also helps extend the Windows 8 ecosystem to the TV, which is something that is current unaddressed, but judging by their moves with the Xbox 360, Microsoft is very interested in.

Bonus: It explains most of the rumor confusion.
A benefit of this situation is that it explains almost all of the recent rumor confusion. Recently we have heard frequent rumors of a new Xbox in 2012, but most of those rumors have been coming from consumer electronics focused websites like MSNerd and This Week In Tech. On the other hand, we have heard a lot about a new Xbox in late 2013/early 2014, but these rumors have primarily come from gaming websites like Eurogamer or gaming industry figures like CliffyB. If there are two devices, both of these rumors can be true, and the reason people are getting confused is because each side thinks that only one product exists, so information about one product is perceived as conflicting information about the other.

So: What do you think? Our information on the topic is still pretty sketchy, so take this more as a place to start discussion rather than a firm prediction.

 

[FateBreaker]

Interesting. Very interesting. It seems a bit silly. They already confuse some people with the different types of Xbox 360 bundles/hardware amount you can buy (for parents, etc)

 

[scoobs]

feel as if this would confuse the market, not a good idea imo. Why not make it all-in-one and have the xbox 720 be the home entertainment center? Seems silly

 

[Erekiddo]

Would Microsoft want to cannibalize itself with drastically different SKUs? Did that work well with Sony?

This model has full backwards compatibility!

This model only uses emulation for compatibility!

This model doesn't play them at all!

Either way, I'll be sticking to the Xbox 3. Since XBL is sticking around, I wonder if all the arcade games I have now will able to be transferred/redownloaded to the new console. I'm slowly owning more arcade games than actual games. :|

 

[Nirolak]

feel as if this would confuse the market, not a good idea imo. Why not make it all-in-one and have the xbox 720 be the home entertainment center? Seems silly

Cost would be the main motivator.

It's much easier to sell a $150-$200 Kinect based home entertainment center to someone not interested in gaming than it is a $400-$500 one.

 

[shira]

$199
vs
$599

I'm not going to be able to afford the nextnextgen

 

[-WindYoshi-]

feel as if this would confuse the market, not a good idea imo. Why not make it all-in-one and have the xbox 720 be the home entertainment center? Seems silly

I agree but if the products are two years apart then it shouldn't be too confusing.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

Cool plan if true. Would require alot of marketing to make sure people know the loop version wont play 'traditional' games if it does indeed have xbox in the name.

I could see the Loop version coming out next year and the xbox 3 in 2013.

 

[Majanew]

Will it cause consumer confusion? Pushing a new Xbox for next year and then another new Xbox one year after that. "Oh, well this one is the next-gen version." I think it is dumb to make that move and have two Xboxes that drastically different on the market. Especially with both still competing with the current Xbox 360. Gonna have three different systems?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

This would probably work out pretty okay in terms of hardware sales.

I have literally no idea how it would turn out in terms of general development.

 

[CaptainABAB]

Intriguing. Basically an AppleTV/GoogleTV competitor.

Maybe it could also be used as a platform for casual games/app developed using the new Win8 RT API.

 

[les papillons sexuels]

microsoft wants to set up kinect as a dominant force in the household. Getting people use to the notion of voice and motion control without the need for a dedicated physical surface is what much of their "future of productivity" is all about. This can then translate into coporate applications easier.

They want their ui implentation to be the standard for how we interact with every day objects, just like how apple's iphone became the standard for smart phones.

 

[liquidspeed]

feel as if this would confuse the market, not a good idea imo. Why not make it all-in-one and have the xbox 720 be the home entertainment center? Seems silly

Microsoft markets the heck out of their stuff, so i think they could avoid that.

As a gamer, I would be all for this type of set up.

 

[scoobs]

The thing is, the 360 already does all the streaming TV stuff or at least has the capability to do it so its not like there's really a reason to release an entirely new box just with that in mind... I dont know. I think a vast majority of people will be really pissed when their xbox loop doesn't play halo 5

 

[CaptainABAB]

The thing is, the 360 already does all the streaming TV stuff or at least has the capability to do it so its not like there's really a reason to release an entirely new box just with that in mind... I dont know. I think a vast majority of people will be really pissed when their xbox loop doesn't play halo 5

This is what I don't get - the 360 is already at $199 and nearing the $99 price point. Why not use that as the low-cost entry vehicle?

 

[Majanew]

microsoft wants to set up kinect as a dominant force in the household. Getting people use to the notion of voice and motion control without the need for a dedicated physical surface is what much of their "future of productivity" is all about. This can then translate into coporate applications easier.

They want their ui implentation to be the standard for how we interact with every day objects, just like how apple's iphone became the standard for smart phones.

Not going to happen. People will not give up holding a device for navigation just so they can move their hand around. Voice commands maybe, but it still isn't as fast as pushing a button.

 

[confused]

KinecTV

 

[JGS]

This is what large companies do. Brand everything with Xbox and form different SKU's based off that brand name rather than Microsoft.

I imagine the basic setup is to ensure their name is at the forefront in the living room where they can upsell the gaming console.

 

[Nirolak]

On the consumer confusion note, Apple has already helped train consumers to think about this with the iPod Touch/iPhone/iPad.

Not only do all three products run different applications, but some applications only work on certain versions of the individual devices, such as an app that will run on the iPhone 3GS, but not the iPhone 3, or an app that only works on iPad 2, but not on iPod Touch 4.

 

[liquidspeed]

The thing is, the 360 already does all the streaming TV stuff or at least has the capability to do it so its not like there's really a reason to release an entirely new box just with that in mind... I dont know. I think a vast majority of people will be really pissed when their xbox loop doesn't play halo 5

Yea, but this would allow MS to release a new box that could truly capture the " casual" crowd, release an updated Kinect and even more multimedia features at <= $200 USD while NOT alienating their core audience of gamers like ourselves.

 

[FoneBone]

This would probably work out pretty okay in terms of hardware sales.

I have literally no idea how it would turn out in terms of general development.

Yeah, that's a huge question mark. It does make a lot more sense to me than the 720-in-2012 rumors... but launching (effectively) the Kinect 2 only two years later seems bizarre.

 

[Bumhead]

Can't see it, personally.

It's a nice idea but I think it runs the risk of ever so slightly fragmenting the market. A potential problem is that if they release a more media focused, Kinect enabled, App driven set top box at the end of 2012, then for a lot of people that's all they're going to need. I think that would be a fairly successful product; at least from Microsoft's point of view in terms of getting content delivery and Kinect into front rooms. The problem then becomes that if a large group of people think this ticks all their boxes, then how do you sell them another $400 box a year down the line? To everybody who posts on NeoGAF there's an obvious differentiation. To people who Microsoft want to buy Xbox's, there will be lots of those people who either won't know about or care enough about an improved Kinect 2, competing with PS4 etc etc to make that upgrade. If the kids can already play Kinect, if the family can already use Netflix and if there's already a content delivery system there, how do you convince those people to upgrade again?

I think Kinect is going to be a part of Microsoft's strategy irrespective of bundles. It's something they're heavily invested in, it's central to the audience they're targeting and it's been a successful product for them. I don't think they'll launch another piece of Xbox hardware without it.

I do however think the next Xbox will be a combination of the two potentials you listed above. I think it will just be called "Xbox" (and therefore becoming the standardised name for the gaming arm of Microsoft does, forming a third pillar alongside Windows 8 and Windows Phone) and that it will focus heavily on content delivery. I think it'll have enough bells and whistles to support "core" gaming and it's not going to be a slouch technically, and it'll still support physical media and traditional controllers etc, but I also think it'll aesthetically become a very "set top" type of hardware. Content and media delivery will be central to everything it does - again tieing in seamlessly with W8 and WP7 - and it'll be pitched every bit as much about Netflix and Kinect as it will be about Gears of War and Halo.

 

[V_Ben]

Man, if they do that parents are probably going to get confused. "My son wants the new xbox" "which one?" "I don't know, give me the cheaper one". They'll really have to work at differentiating the two, but they probably know how they'll do that. An xbox set top box with Kinect integration would probably be a killer product though, in terms of helping Microsoft get a foothold in the living room.

How about the rumour of a Kinect 2 though? Surely that's going to put a damper on this box once an upgraded Kinect comes out and makes people wonder why their one can't do that. Are they going to pull an apple and offer a whole new box with Kinect 2 integration?

 

[les papillons sexuels]

Not going to happen. People will not give up holding a device for navigation just so they can move their hand around. Voice commands maybe, but it still isn't as fast as pushing a button.

you'd be pushing buttons, it's just that the buttons are going to be set to your dinning room table, or kitchen fridge with the use of a simple projector + kinect set up. Kinect has the potential to turn any screen into a multitouch surface, and with the aid of a projector any surface into a human computer interface.

 

[Takuya]

If true, will be fun to see how good or bad it turns out trying to run two different markets with the same brand.

 

[radioheadrule83]

It would be a good idea imo. Some people into the dance central games etc don't necessarily need a $400 console, and they'd value a cheap, robust media center alternative. It wouldn't be confusing as they'd look nothing alike and cost vastly different sums of money. It's all down to the marketing. I could see it happening!

 

[Frustrated_me]

This is what I don't get - the 360 is already at $199 and nearing the $99 price point. Why not use that as the low-cost entry vehicle?

What makes you think they wont do this? They can easily bundle kinect and the 360 into one small unit and sell it as the next KinecTV - also plays arcade games too.

 

[Nirolak]

This is what I don't get - the 360 is already at $199 and nearing the $99 price point. Why not use that as the low-cost entry vehicle?

Presumably because it's not compatible with the Kinect 2: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=453520

 

[FoneBone]

So here's where I'm not following... I can see them splitting the Xbox brand, but splitting the Kinect brand seems to make a lot less sense to me.

 

[bigtroyjon]

How could it play Kinect games and not play 360 games?

 

[Sydle]

Is a bit confusing. Will be interesting to see how they market the two separately, but instill some kind of cross pollination.

 

[quickwhips]

I think this would be a bad decision for them. I think a low in model that is mostly used as a set top box is fine but two different products is not the answer.

 

[Nirolak]

How could it play Kinect games and not play 360 games?

I should note that we mean new Kinect games designed specifically for the system.

 

[bgassassin]

I agree with everything except I would flip the release dates.

Set-Top - 2013
Xbox3 - 2012

 

[Evershade]

I think ultimately the Xbox TV is a good idea. Built in Kinect with basic twitter, youtube, facebook, netflix integration would make for a pretty good set top box.

They would just need to be careful to market it well away from the core Xbox to avoid confusion, go with the Kinect brand instead. Then later down the line release the Xbox 720 with Kinect.

 

[CaptainABAB]

Presumably because it's not compatible with the Kinect 2: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=453520

None of those features needs the Kinect 2

 

[MoogPaul]

How could it play Kinect games and not play 360 games?

Think App Store for Kinect games.

 

[MoogPaul]

I think ultimately the Xbox TV is a good idea. Built in Kinect with basic twitter, youtube, facebook, netflix integration would make for a pretty good set top box.

not to mention HBO Go, ESPN, and whatever kind of deals they are making with cable companies.

Crap, Double post.

 

[TTP]

Man, if they do that parents are probably going to get confused. "My son wants the new xbox" "which one?" "I don't know, give me the cheaper one". They'll really have to work at differentiating the two, but they probably know how they'll do that. An xbox set top box with Kinect integration would probably be a killer product though, in terms of helping Microsoft get a foothold in the living room.

How about the rumour of a Kinect 2 though? Surely that's going to put a damper on this box once an upgraded Kinect comes out and makes people wonder why their one can't do that. Are they going to pull an apple and offer a whole new box with Kinect 2 integration?

Quite likely.

But what about the current Xbox 360? Will they kill it when the Xbox 720 ships and have this Xbox Set Top box sort of replace it? Why releasing a limited kinect-only set top box when they could theoretically turn the Xbox 360 w/kinect into that (keeping the drive and 360 games compatibility in)

 

[Majanew]

I agree with everything except I would flip the release dates.

Set-Top - 2013
Xbox3 - 2012

That would be a lot better. I bet money that if a "set top" Xbox is announced first for next year, it will be seen by many that don't follow game sites, as the 360's successor. Bad move and requires more money spent trying to educate consumers on what the hell it is.

 

[1-D_FTW]

I guess it makes sense. They seem to want "Windows 8" to be a unified platform that gets them out of the exclusive domain of the desktop. Having a low powered (and thus sleek) set top box with Kinect 2.0 would make a lot of sense. Especially since if they're all running a unified OS, games would be upward compatible with the Big Brother system.

My only counter to this would be: What's the incentive for the uber box? The real money is in the casual Kinect 2.0 box. Would they really want to deal with the hassle of the uber product when the margins would suck and the software is expensive?

It's because of this I'm kind of skeptical. I think a unified architecture (with an ARM CPU) that was robustly powered, but under 100 watts TDP probably makes sense if you're going after the hardcore market too. Just strip out things like hard drive and blu-ray and you not only reduce cost further, but you can make it more aesthetically pleasing for the casual model.

 

[Photolysis]

Seems like it would cause needless confusion and market fragmentation. It was bad enough with all the 360 SKUs that have existed.

 

[Mrbob]

Could be a distinct possibility. Gaming is evolving way beyond regular consoles. I'm looking at a Roku box right now, and the top line Roku device for 99 dollars comes with a motion controller where you can play games like Angry Birds and Pacman Championship Edition on the device. This could fall in line where MS might want to have something similar out in the market place to keep Xbox brand awareness alive.

 

[sh4mike]

Seems like a good approach. I'd be scared developing next-gen hardware given how fast the industry is changing (particularly iOS gaming). Going with separate products instead of an all-in-one can make the two core markets happy while hopefully still achieving some economies of scale between the two platforms.

 

[Nirolak]

Alright, charlequin and I talked this over some more looking at feedback and added a section answering the question of "Why not use the Xbox 360 for this?" to the OP.

I've also copy pasted it below:

How Does This Interact With Windows 8?
Microsoft currently has a Windows 8 marketplace planned that sells applications that run on Windows 8, Windows 8 tablets, Windows 8 ARM devices, and Windows 8 phones. Given that there is now a commercial SDK for Kinect coming out, this would allow Microsoft to let developers sell Kinect apps for the new Xbox TV system. Since the proposed Xbox TV system runs on an ARM architecture, it would make this process significantly easier since Windows 8 is currently only built to handle ARM and x86, neither of which the Xbox 360 uses. This also helps extend the Windows 8 ecosystem to the TV, which is something that is current unaddressed, but judging by their moves with the Xbox 360, Microsoft is very interested in.

charlequin will be back from work soon as well in case you were wondering why he wasn't posting.

 

[bgassassin]

That would be a lot better. I bet money that if a "set top" Xbox is announced first for next year, it will be seen by many that don't follow game sites, as the 360's successor. Bad move and requires more money spent trying to educate consumers on what the hell it is.

Plus since we're getting confirmation that what MSNerd said is true, then we'd have to believe that the set-top box is Loop and coming out in 2013 due to that timeline list he/she gave. Ten however was nowhere to be found on that list that covers a decent amount of time so it's time is pretty open to interpretation. But there's been enough smoke to indicate 2012, plus they'll want to get the console out before PS4.

 

[Coxy]

sounds like a really awful idea and also 90% likely to happen

 

[sixteen-bit]

Multiple SKUs sounds like a mistake.

 

[Solid warrior]

3 SKUs. Console only SKUs and Kinect 2 Bundle SKUs.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Plus since we're getting confirmation that what MSNerd said is true, then we'd have to believe that the set-top box is Loop and coming out in 2013 due to that timeline list he/she gave. Ten however was nowhere to be found on that list that covers a decent amount of time so it's time is pretty open to interpretation. But there's been enough smoke to indicate 2012, plus they'll want to get the console out before PS4.

The rumor is this morning's Eurogamer article (about Kinect 2.0) is that "Loop" was a loop you wore around your arm and was MS' one time solution to the Wiimote and Move. It was abandoned for Kinect. So I'm not sure anything of what you said should be regarded as confirmed.