So, since Screamride is out on 360, it's not an XB1 exclusive, yet here:
You state GOW3 and Journey (edit: and Deception IV and Godzilla) as exclusives. Just curious regarding the logic used.
FWIW, I own both
actually all 3
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June 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
So, since Screamride is out on 360, it's not an XB1 exclusive, yet here:
You state GOW3 and Journey (edit: and Deception IV and Godzilla) as exclusives. Just curious regarding the logic used.
FWIW, I own both
I just can't imagine where Halo 5 somehow sells ~5m in its first three months (strong indication that it's doing even better than Halo 3 or 4) and then peters out so quick that it can't even sell 1.5m over the next 4+ years despite being part of the Platinum reduced cost line at some point like Halo 1-4 were. My expectations are for Halo 5 to sell appreciably less than Halo 3 or 4 at launch because of the sour taste Halo 4 left, MCC's lukewarm reception, and lesser XB1 userbase compared to Halo 4's release time. In my mind if it sells more than Halo 3/4 through their first Decembers, then it's rocking, old sins are forgiven, and 343 has successfully usurped Bungie in the mind of Halo fans. The idea that it could go from that height to basically dead (in terms of Halo legs) just doesn't seem a real possibility to me.
Like I said, could just be a failure of imagination on my part, though.
Personally I'd agree that it'd debut lower than Halo 3. However I still think it'll be close to 3 million but will not have huge legs. Sure it could end up selling well over the years but I don't think that 2016 sales of Halo 5 will be as good as 2008 or 2013 sales of Halo 3/4.
I don't get your "can't even sell 1.5m more" statement though. Halo 3 sold over 14 million for example -- wouldn't that mean Halo 5 would have to do "9 million more"?
It seems like you are mixing the discussion with worldwide and U.S. sales (though I'm not completely sure as I'm still confused haha).
______________
Agree.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Ok, he is talking about US sales, not world wide. So he thought you meant over Halo 3 debut (4.5 million) but under Halo 4 life time US (6 Million) which is where the 1.5 million comes from^^
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Now this is true, but they burned a lot of the PvP fans because it was becoming too "COD like" and now Halo 5 is even more on that train which looks bad for the Halo hardcore, but what if that makes it appeal more to the COD crowd? Do they have an opportunity to convert new generation FPS players?
I'm solely talking about U.S. sales seeing as how this is an NPD prediction thread. Maybe I missed that the discussion was on worlwide sales, then?
Yep, am purely talking U.S. sales here.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
Warped view? Why's that?
there is absolutely no way Sony is going through this holiday season without a price cut. all these third party deals won't make any sense if they priced their console 100$ higher than the competition. people will just buy the cheaper console and buy those games if needed. if there is a time for sony to put the foot down and make sure they don't give MS a foot back in the US market it is this holiday. MS is going to throw everything and the kitchen sink into this holiday behind halo 5 and advertising backwards compatibility along side forza 6 and rise of the tombraider.
Sony strategically announced their plan to have a press conference at paris games week around the launch of halo 5 most likely to announce new games, worldwide price cut alongside bundles for the holiday.
my prediction is there will be $299 500gb bundles with assassin's creed syndicate this fall. $349 1tb bundles with either cod or star wars. there will also be special edition bundles for both those games for 399$. depending on what ms does they will probably bundle in additional digital game codes like god of war 3 remastered, journey and any other first party games or even bloodborne that won't cost them anything since it will be digital codes.
i know it sounds crazy and extreme and sony could sit back and let ms take the win this holiday but I don't think they will let MS get momentum especially this year when a lot of people are going to have to jump into the current gen with major games like ac, fallout and star wars not on previous gen. by taking a small loss they will gain more people to sell their exclusives that are coming next year. it is looking it will be a jam packed year of ps4 exclusives in 2016 alongside additional hardware in morpheus so it benefits them to not lose any potential customers to ms this holiday. ms do have quantum break and scalebound most likely in early 2016 to carry forward any momentum so not a good idea to let them walk away with a win this holiday.
it is going to be exciting to watch what happens either way
More Zhuge hyperbole
While your arguments are sound, we've heard the same things before. I fully expect Microsoft to drop the price again this holiday. If they don't, they're going to get crushed. Being $100 more expensive is a bad look, and people will just make up that $100 with games anyway. I'm sure Sony doesn't want to lose NA, it would be terrible for PR and lost opportunity cost.Sangetsu-II
Member
True that was a mispost from my part saying they were exclusives meant PS4 has games this July. Also its kinda stupid you replying my post with another post of mine that has nothing to do with the the current one. I'll let you have that one though.
Sangetsu-II
Member
There was no logic just a missed typed error from a post where I was talking to other gaf members on why Amazon disparity for July was happening and my opinion on it.
Meanwhile the post where I called out MS for not putting out an "exclusive" still holds firm because MS hasn't published or release a "exclusive" for retail while Sony has already put "exclusives" this year.
Like I said I find it funny you just mixed two posts of mine together.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
I'm thinking the opposite. PS4 is nearly 2 to 1 to Xbox One and has sold more than Xbox One and Wii U COMBINED. PS4 has a user install base of over 23m. That in itself is why majority of third parties are reaching deals with Sony. Third parties are going with the console that has the higher user install base which is what makes the most sense. Why go after 13m users when you can go after 23m users? Third parties are looking at those who already own the console, not those who may or may not buy the console. Most users equal more purchases and thus more money. Even if it doesn't, they already made money by reaching deals with Sony for exclusive content or whatever it may be.
NA wise, Microsoft is only losing by less than a million units, easily won last year's holiday season, are going all out this holiday season yet again but when you think about it, despite their price drops (yes, drops), removal of Kinect resulting in a price drop to $400 and then a holiday price drop to $350 which became permanent is more of a negative than a positive and here's why - how much confidence do you really have in your product if you keep lowering the price and offering these massive bundles? As a consumer, that doesn't look good to me. It shows desperation, panic, worrying and flat out, "we're not good enough to compete at the same price tag".
As for the those games - Halo 5 should sell but nowhere near what it used to as it's simply not as popular as it once was and once you lose the original developer, fans tend to lose interest. I personally have no interest in Halo whatsoever but even I know that after Halo: MCC that even the most hardcore fans are at the very least concerned.
Forza 6 is great racing game and while Horizon is different, it was outsold by DriveClub which is kind of sad in my opinion. The franchise has also declined in sales since 2009 when it was at it's peak. Add in the fact that a lot of Xbox 360 loyalists switched to PS4 this generation and it's not looking good. It will sell between 2m and 3m which is excellent for a racing game but is going to sell consoles? Highly unlikely.
Rise of the Tomb Raider is going to bomb badly and here's several reasons why - 1) the user install base is only 13m compared to 23m for PS4. 2) A lot of people are pissed off that the game is timed exclusive so even those who own an Xbox One but may have preferred to buy and play it on PS4 will most likely wait for a sale, price drop or the PS4 version. 3) Unless the Xbox 360 version has been cancelled, it's cross-gen and I don't care how many times they say it's being built on Xbox One, if it's still cross-gen, the differences will be minimal at best and mainly just in visuals. And this is proven with every cross-gen game thus far. No reason to buy an Xbox One when if you own an Xbox 360, you can play it on that instead. Seriously, what are you losing? Extra strands of hair flowing in the wind??? LOL. Give me a break.
4) This is actually the main reason - Fallout 4. NO ONE expected it to release this year let alone on November 10th. Tomb Raider was an excellent game and I actually preferred it over Uncharted 3 but it didn't sell as good as Square Enix was hoping which is why they took this huge sum of cash to let it be a timed exclusive for Xbox One. The PS4/Xbox One version of Tomb raider was an even bigger disappointment simply because to release it 10 months later is not a good thing at all through the eyes of a consumer and can be seen as nothing more than a huge cash grab which it most likely failed at. Huge difference between exclusives like The Last of Us being re-mastered compared to third party games being re-mastered. Exclusives make sense because you can only play it on that "brand" where as with third party games, you can play it on any of the three (or now five) consoles including PC.
Back to Fallout 4. I would be in the extreme minority that chooses ROTR over Fallout 4. But the majority won't do the same. Fallout is more of an Xbox brand than it is a PlayStation brand (like MGS is more of a Sony brand than a Microsoft brand) and with it including mods at launch and being a huge open world compared to a linear 20 hour game, which do you think is going to do better?
If anything, there's a better chance of Fallout 4 selling Xbox One more than there is Halo, Forza and a timed ROTR combined and granted, im probably over doing it but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fallout 4 sells more than all three combined and pushes the Xbox One more than those three combined.
I see Sony staying at $400 until next year's E3 unless they go into panic mode which I don't see why they would. Despite the lower price, bundles, free games, etc., PS4 is STILL wining in NA so just imagine if Sony did lower the price? They would kill off Microsoft and Xbox One. I see Sony releasing a $400 1TB bundle with a few of their exclusives packed in via digital codes. As for Star Wars or COD, it will be the same as the Batman bundles. In the end, Sony has NO REASON to lower the price of the PS4.
Let's say for argument sake that Microsoft wins November and December and overall, four months out of twelve for 2015. The difference will be minimal overall. People are just looking at the holidays and that's it. But guess what, it's not a three month race. It's a 12 month marathon. Microsoft can have their holiday win because it doesn't mean a damn thing if you're still losing the rest of the year.
Going by the link in the opening post and via the NPD 2014 archives, Xbox One outsold PS4 2.69m to 2.16m in October, November and December combined for a difference of 530k. Between January and May 2015, PS4 has outsold Xbox One 1.198m to 989k for a difference of 209k.
Despite the removal of Kinect, the $350 price tag, games being thrown in for free, etc., Xbox One has ONLY outsold PS4 by 321k between October 2014 and May 2015.
Sorry but that's not exactly great to be perfectly honest especially when Microsoft is going all out and Sony is just cruising. When PS4's biggest games last year was a flawed at launch and should have been delayed again Drive Club and a cross gen port in Little Big Planet 3 and you can ONLY outsell the competition by 530k despite huge marketing, a better exclusive lineup, cheaper price, free games and promotions, im sorry but that's nothing to be bragging or gloating about.
The fact that Microsoft is even losing in NA is sad in itself simply because despite what they say, they only care about NA where as Sony wants to win worldwide. Unless Xbox One outsells PS4 by at least 2m this holiday season, I don't see a price drop whatsoever and im sure those investors at Sony realize that if Microsoft lowers the price to $300 for the holidays or adds more free games or whatever, they know it's only because Microsoft is basically giving away their console.
Imagine this, Sony waits until E3 2016, lowers the price to $300, includes a 1TB hard drive AND it's a slim version. That in itself will make up for whatever Microsoft wins by in November and December. Add in Uncharted 4 and Street Fighter V and just like im talking about it now, I'll be saying the same thing next year - winning two months doesn't mean anything when you're losing eight months out of twelve.
Looking ahead to 2016, Sony has Uncharted 4, SFV, Horizon, The Last Guardian, No Man's Sky, Hellblade and others as well as Morpheus. Sony hasn't even started with their exclusives kicking in yet while Microsoft is going all out for the holiday season but yet, the rest of the year is non-existent to them.
I can't speak for anyone else but I prefer Sony's setup of having their exclusives spread out throughout the year simply because it gives me more time to play them and once finished, I can look forward to the next exclusive. With Microsoft, it's like by January, im done and they have nothing until October. That's how I look at it.
I don't see Quantum Break or Scalebound coming out until mid/late 2016 and if anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Quantum Break gets delayed until 2017 simply because they're trying to implement a TV show or whatever crap they're trying to do and my guess is that it's going to screw up the game itself. Scalebound is by Platinum Games who I have no worries about but I still don't see the game coming out early 2016 especially with early 2016 being packed already. Being a exclusive, new IP and going against Dark Souls III, I see Scalebound as a mid/late 2016 release. Better to release it after March/April as it will have a better chance of selling.
Sorry for the long post. I just find it funny why so many people think that Sony should lower the price of the PS4 when they truly have no valid reason to do so. 2015 isn't the time for a price cut especially if/when they announce an Uncharted 4 console bundle as that will easily sell at $400.
Either way, it will definitely be fun to watch and in the end, us gamers win.
DaleinCalgary
Member
I believe we will have a $329 PS4 this xmas.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
More Zhuge hyperbole
It being terrible for PR is where I disagree. Microsoft IS A U.S. company. Sony IS A JAPANESE company. If anything, Sony winning in NA is a huge upset especially when Microsoft only cares about NA. They don't give two craps about the rest of the world and I don't care what they say because it's bullshit. Also, people don't seem to realize that there's a negative affect to lowering your price like Microsoft has done - it tells consumers that their product is inferior and can't compete at the same price tag and regardless of whether or not that's actually true, it simply looks bad. It shows panic, desperation, etc. and I for one as of right now, would not go near any company's product if they're acting and coming across like that. If they lower the price to $300 for the holidays, that will turn me off more than on because it shows that they don't have the confidence in their product to sell at $400 or $350. Sony staying at $400 after E3 shows confidence in their console and that's something that I want to see as a consumer because that's what I am before being a gamer. People may underestimate it but having confidence in your product does go a long way with consumers.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Where Sony is based means nothing. PS1 and PS2 dominated America. Wii led the US for most of the last generation. The only reason Xbox One would win the US is cutthroat pricing.
I think Sony should expand the PS4 base as possible with the Morpheus launch next year.
Also this probably Xbox One's last chance for a while to make a push. Thwarting that would be a good strategic move.
Because that's now how it works... thats not how any of this Works.
Also are you seriously going to use the "Sony is Japanese and Microsft is American" line.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
A number of equity research conglomerates have been releasing NPD predictions to private clients around this time.
I'm one of these clients, so I'll post Michael Pachter's console hardware predictions here as per NeoGAF tradition.
Do not misinterpret these predictions as "insider leaks" just because they were released through confidential channels.
Like many in the main thread I am also very disappointed at Mr. Pachter for his crass initial Twitter response to Mr. Iwata's tragic death.
He has since apologized, so I'd prefer this thread not get littered with needless Pachter vitriol. Rather, now is the time to mourn the passing of a legend in the video game industry.
I'm one of these clients, so I'll post Michael Pachter's console hardware predictions here as per NeoGAF tradition.
Do not misinterpret these predictions as "insider leaks" just because they were released through confidential channels.
Like many in the main thread I am also very disappointed at Mr. Pachter for his crass initial Twitter response to Mr. Iwata's tragic death.
He has since apologized, so I'd prefer this thread not get littered with needless Pachter vitriol. Rather, now is the time to mourn the passing of a legend in the video game industry.
A number of equity research conglomerates have been releasing NPD predictions to private clients around this time.
I'm one of these clients, so I'll post Michael Pachter's console hardware predictions here as per NeoGAF tradition.
Doesn't seem too outlandish this month.
Fuck! Now the XB1 is gonna win June. Thanks, Patcher! On a more serious note, this seems reasonable. I really hope he's not too far off this time. The meltdown will be glorious if the XB1 wins.A number of equity research conglomerates have been releasing NPD predictions to private clients around this time.
I'm one of these clients, so I'll post Michael Pachter's console hardware predictions here as per NeoGAF tradition.
Edit: Also, remember when Aqua used to post predictions from Patcher? Now Grim Reaper is doing it... Grim Reaper is Aqua confirmed!
The Grim Reaper
Banned
jvm also posts Pachter predictions on occasion.
LOL, I was kidding, mostly...
Also, is anyone else considering changing their predictions to give the XB1 a win? I was for a while, then, nah, screw it. Dude's gotta be right for once.
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
Every company in the world will always care more about their "home" country regardless of what they say. That's just the way it is, has been or forever will be.
As for my thinking about it not being the way it works, it's working pretty damn good for Sony. Why would they change course and drop the price of their console when it's still selling at $400? To me, that would make no business sense plus I don't see their investors in any hurry to lower the price. Microsoft is desperate, panicked and making rushed decisions and giving away more than what they're getting in return. That's not good business sense. Sony has no reason to be like that at all. When you act like how Microsoft has been the last year or so, it reminds me of Sega 20 years ago. Making horrible decisions that in the end, will hurt you a lot more than help.
Worldwide, it's already over. Everyone outside the U.S. pretty much hates Microsoft for various reasons plus gaming isn't what it once was in Japan so that's another factor. The fact of the matter is that in the U.S., Microsoft is EXPECTED to win which is why they continue to go all out during the holidays as they know that's there only chance to surpass Sony. Microsoft even trailing is an embarrassment to them because just look at last gen when they dominated the U.S. market. Now, they're playing catch up and no amount of sales, free games, bundles, etc. can undo the damage that they did to themselves two years ago.
People can think that's no longer a factor but it is. Sony is far from perfect but Microsoft pissed off a lot of people, mainly their own loyal fan base. Majority of that fan base switched sides this generation. If it wasn't for the price drops, bundles, sales, promotions, etc., Xbox One would be behind Wii U. People are buying it more because it's seen as a good deal as opposed to actually wanting to go out and buy one. And that's the difference, people are still buying PS4 without those insane deals, free games, etc. and that's why they don't need to nor should they lower the price until next year. Simply, no valid reason for them to do so.
Everyone has their own opinion and whatnot but if it was up to me, I wouldn't even be thinking of a price drop until next year's E3. After all, if PS4 is outselling Xbox One despite the lack of exclusives, no monthly updates, worse online service, etc. and the fact that Microsoft is basically trying to give the Xbox One away while PS4 is still selling at $400, why on earth would I be stupid enough to lower the price of the console?
Because others say so? No no no. That's not good business at all. Microsoft are the ones who are desperate and losing, not Sony. You don't lower the price of your console when it's still outselling the competition at a higher price point. Why the hell anyone would do that this early is beyond me. PS4 isn't even two years old. No need for a price drop whatsoever. Bundle in some digital games which people seem to love (I prefer discs) for $400 and have bundles with third parties and they will be better than fine.
This got me lol
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Microsoft isn't "desperate." As of March 31st, 2015 Microsoft Corporation can muster at least $95.438 billion worth of free cash within any given fiscal year. That's far beyond the bounds of the niche Xbox segment.
In fact, the entire Xbox business is largely inconsequential to the company. The Xbox division could be shut down tomorrow and financial investors without any personal attachment to Xbox really wouldn't care in the slightest.
It currently exists because Mr. Nadella believes that Xbox will act as a gateway for people to embrace the Microsoft ecosystem. And, it's evolved into a passion project for the company and Mr. Nadella---there's pride and satisfaction in crafting art and making gamers happy. Ars gratia artis.
Of course Microsoft is going to make strategic decisions to best orient themselves as a business, because they're not a charity.
But I think you put way too much importance on Xbox's position in the nebulous "console war." Mr. Nadella and Mr. Spencer care far less about the fact that Microsoft is "losing" Europe or "winning their home turf" than gaming enthusiasts on an Internet forum think they do.
If the Xbox division is making money or successfully being oriented to make money (like through the highly profitable Xbox Live), contributing value to Nadella's wide-sweeping management goals, and promoting investment in the Microsoft ecosystem, then I don't think edgy buzzwords like "embarrassment," "desperation," and "winning the war" ever enter the vocabulary at Microsoft.
Welfare
Member
The Mad Draklor
Member
Going by his post history and account age, more like Grim Reaper is Microsoft Chad/Doctor Professional confirmed.
Probably found out he was an alt
EDIT: I remember a recently banned junior tell Zhuge that he was freely making alt accounts and would get back into GAF later. Could be the same guy.
Probably found out he was an alt
Wait. You mean someone made a bunch of accounts to come into sales threads and shit them up? That's never happened on Gaf before has it?
slavesnyder
Member
You should try that, too. It's fun.
CorporateClown
Member
[3DS] 120k
[PS4] 280k
[WIU] 58k
[XB1] 193k
[PS4] 280k
[WIU] 58k
[XB1] 193k
The Mad Draklor
Member
I haven't been around as long as the others, but I began noticing this in the March NPD Results thread. And yes, someone has been making multiple accounts just to participate in NPD threads. He literally PM'ed Zhuge admitting that his Doctor Professional account was an alt of likely his Microsoft Chad account and that he made more alts.
No thanks. I made sure to behave myself as a junior. And one account is plenty. I enjoy being part of Gaf. I just remember how bad it got around the PS4 and Xbox one launch.
slavesnyder
Member
Being responsible for a billion dollar devision without worries about market share?
What a cool job Spencer has...
Dyson Industries
Banned
aquamarine has to do a better job with her alts.
Yup....
I don't know why people do it. It's stupid.
I don't know if he was MSChad though, just that he had multiple accounts.
Jesus dude! Take a chill pill. I never said I disagreed with you on a price drop, what I meant was that the reasons you use to back up your points aren't great. You're giving too much importance to stuff that doesn't matter and not taking into account multiple factors.
Like I said, you have a warped view of the console market, of Microsoft and Sony, and how this whole thing works.
It's more about Sony trying to keep that gap between them and Xbox growing. Going into the holiday last year, Xbox was $50 cheaper than the PS4. Even though PS4 came bundled with GTA V & TLOU (compared to 2 AC games for Xbox), they were soundly beaten over those two months, cutting the lead in the U.S. to about half. I almost certainly expect Microsoft to lower the price of the Xbox again this holiday, and $299 seems like the right price point. If Sony goes into this holiday $100 more expensive than their competitor, not only are they setting themselves up for a holiday thrashing, they risk losing millions of dollars in sales to opportunity cost. Holiday buyers are very price-sensitive. For every person that buys an XBO over a PS4 because of price, that's $300+ (include games, PS+ subs, etc.) in money lost to opportunity cost because they didn't lower the price when they had the chance. If they want to maintain their standing in the US, they'll drop the price.
November 15th is the PS4's 2nd birthday. The PS2 was released in March of 2000 and had its first $100 price cut in May of 2002. I expect Sony to follow the same precedent.
You can take the man out of GAF...
...but you can't take GAF out of the man.
:^)
Welfare
Member
$$$
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Given recent rumours about the PS4 making up 80% of the market in Europe and the recent de-branding of other entertainment divisions like Video and Music to disassociate themselves from the Xbox brand, I have a feeling that the end of July earnings call is going to be pretty brutal, rather than "We got moneys bro, it don't matter".
Huh, I had no idea.
I expect Xbox finances to be hidden behind strong Surface sales as usual.
EDIT:
Found a better link. Thanks.
Those are tier 2 countries. Only tier 1 have gotten the rebranding.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Remember the XB1M13 incident with Machinima?
DustyVonEric
Member
I don't know why people keep saying this unless they heard it in an interview that I don't know about?
I've brought this piece up a couple times before: Here's a podcast interview with Pachter where he states at 20:50 that he asked Sony "Do you really care if you sell 125 million and they (MS) sells 130 million?" and Sony said no, but when he asked MS the same question, they told him they care about first place and want to win.
Pachter's comments (unless you feel he's lying), plus Phil's interview here states very plainly that MS wants to "win".
And we've all seen the amazing deals and bundles MS has put out, not only during the holidays but also to directly counter big Sony promotions (such as choice of any free game with Xbox One during the launch week of Destiny and Batman).
I've speculated that MS wants to be #1 in people's mind for whatever they have planned, but I'd say their actions and their own words show that they care about "winning". If anything, true to Pach's words, the one acting like they don't care has been Sony
(and unfortunately Nintendo, d'oh!)
Edit: And he's banned. Er, well, point still stands.