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June 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 14th

No thanks. I made sure to behave myself as a junior. And one account is plenty. I enjoy being part of Gaf. I just remember how bad it got around the PS4 and Xbox one launch.
damn, this guy is too good.

Given recent rumours about the PS4 making up 80% of the market in Europe and the recent de-branding of other entertainment divisions like Video and Music to disassociate themselves from the Xbox brand, I have a feeling that the end of July earnings call is going to be pretty brutal, rather than "We got moneys bro, it don't matter".
Agree, building up a brand would be just the other way round...
 

Welfare

Member
You need multiple paid email addresses to make alts, right? Who pays money to make so many alts?

Then again, people pay to use the Something Awful forums.
 
Lots of stuff.

So, hey, I think you make a good point, but it's kind of drowned out by the aggressive tone and some of the anthropomorphism you're throwing on these companies. Chill, dude. We're all friends.

Every company in the world will always care more about their "home" country regardless of what they say. That's just the way it is, has been or forever will be.

A company "cares" about hitting its goal numbers. Most often, a company's goals are higher for the territory in which they are located. That's due to inherent benefits of operating within a territory.

I don't see their investors in any hurry to lower the price.

Investors don't lower prices.

Microsoft is desperate, panicked and making rushed decisions and giving away more than what they're getting in return.

I do not believe any of these things to be anywhere near remotely true. They've changed leadership, have a strategy they've been consistent on since that change, and are executing on that strategy. Whether it works or not is a different issue. But there is nothing desperate and panicked about what they're doing.

When you act like how Microsoft has been the last year or so, it reminds me of Sega 20 years ago.

Not at all anywhere near the same situations. Different universes.

Everyone outside the U.S. pretty much hates Microsoft for various reasons plus gaming isn't what it once was in Japan so that's another factor.

Source for the hate metric? Also, MS has never been a factor in Japan, so whatever.

If it wasn't for the price drops, bundles, sales, promotions, etc., Xbox One would be behind Wii U.

Also nowhere near any semblance of truth. The Wii U was openly rejected by the market. Despite its many challenges, the Xbox One is competing in NA but well behind in EUR.

People are buying it more because it's seen as a good deal as opposed to actually wanting to go out and buy one.

Would love to see whatever primary research data you have on this one, because this just makes no sense, even in an emotionally driven rant. People don't want thing but they're buying thing because they think it's a deal? What?

You don't lower the price of your console when it's still outselling the competition at a higher price point.

No smart company ever lets the competition dictate its strategy. Sony is a smart company.

Bundle in some digital games which people seem to love (I prefer discs) for $400 and have bundles with third parties and they will be better than fine.

Okay, this point I agree with. Value add bundles are the new price drops. However, you're going to see a move back to disc based HW bundles driven by GameStop pushing so hard for it.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I assign blame based on the kid:squid ratio. In fact I am going to start making my hardware predictions based on said ratio of how much squid:kid a PS4 has in it.

Alright, calm down mini wheat!

So, hey, I think you make a good point, but it's kind of drowned out by the aggressive tone and some of the anthropomorphism you're throwing on these companies. Chill, dude. We're all friends.

Yeh. This is the post I wanted to.make but couldn't be bothered. Once again cosmic your comments are invaluable. These were the reasons I said the poster had a warped view of the market and how stuff works
 

Abdiel

Member
So, hey, I think you make a good point, but it's kind of drowned out by the aggressive tone and some of the anthropomorphism you're throwing on these companies. Chill, dude. We're all friends.



A company "cares" about hitting its goal numbers. Most often, a company's goals are higher for the territory in which they are located. That's due to inherent benefits of operating within a territory.



Investors don't lower prices.



I do not believe any of these things to be anywhere near remotely true. They've changed leadership, have a strategy they've been consistent on since that change, and are executing on that strategy. Whether it works or not is a different issue. But there is nothing desperate and panicked about what they're doing.



Not at all anywhere near the same situations. Different universes.



Source for the hate metric? Also, MS has never been a factor in Japan, so whatever.



Also nowhere near any semblance of truth. The Wii U was openly rejected by the market. Despite its many challenges, the Xbox One is competing in NA but well behind in EUR.



Would love to see whatever primary research data you have on this one, because this just makes no sense, even in an emotionally driven rant. People don't want thing but they're buying thing because they think it's a deal? What?



No smart company ever lets the competition dictate its strategy. Sony is a smart company.



Okay, this point I agree with. Value add bundles are the new price drops. However, you're going to see a move back to disc based HW bundles driven by GameStop pushing so hard for it.


On the deal part, we certainly do have some customers swayed by the immediacy of lower price. My best friend's cousin was going to get a ps4 to play games with my friend and I, but he decided to save the $50 and get an xb1.

Now he pressures my friend to sell his ps4 for an xb1, and gets pouty when my friend laughs at him. Doesn't help that my friend plays Japanese games like I do, and as such the xb1 is a very unattractive platform for him too.

It's certainly weird to see. People annoyed that others won't give up their established systems to go to the less popular one. I only had a ps3 last gen, snd I didn't push anyone to get one and sell their 360s.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
On the deal part, we certainly do have some customers swayed by the immediacy of lower price. My best friend's cousin was going to get a ps4 to play games with my friend and I, but he decided to save the $50 and get an xb1.

Now he pressures my friend to sell his ps4 for an xb1, and gets pouty when my friend laughs at him. Doesn't help that my friend plays Japanese games like I do, and as such the xb1 is a very unattractive platform for him too.

It's certainly weird to see. People annoyed that others won't give up their established systems to go to the less popular one. I only had a ps3 last gen, snd I didn't push anyone to get one and sell their 360s.

Interesting, I've seen it before myself but I think it's a very small amount of people who purchased an Xbox purely because of price when they originally were looking at PS4.

Or they buy an Xbox because they don't know any better about how the PS4 is better.
 

Rymuth

Member
On the deal part, we certainly do have some customers swayed by the immediacy of lower price. My best friend's cousin was going to get a ps4 to play games with my friend and I, but he decided to save the $50 and get an xb1.

Now he pressures my friend to sell his ps4 for an xb1, and gets pouty when my friend laughs at him. Doesn't help that my friend plays Japanese games like I do, and as such the xb1 is a very unattractive platform for him too.

It's certainly weird to see. People annoyed that others won't give up their established systems to go to the less popular one. I only had a ps3 last gen, snd I didn't push anyone to get one and sell their 360s.

Hook him up on FFXIV
 

Javin98

Banned
LOL, go to sleep and wake up the next morning to see The Grim Reaper banned. Would be hilarious if he really was a alt of Microsoft Chad
 

Welfare

Member
To touch on what Zhuge brought up last page, why are there people making alts to just come and shit on the NPD threads. Money might be a reason for doing it, but what is the goal they are hoping to achieve by doing this?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
To touch on what Zhuge brought up last page, why are there people making alts to just come and shit on the NPD threads. Money might be a reason for doing it, but what is the goal they are hoping to achieve by doing this?

How else will they get people to buy the Xbox One: All in One entertainment system, now just $349!
 
Also nowhere near any semblance of truth. The Wii U was openly rejected by the market. Despite its many challenges, the Xbox One is competing in NA but well behind in EUR.

The Xbox One did only manage 77k in May 2014 prompting those pre-E3 emergency price cuts / Kinect unbundling though.
I think it's fair to say if it hadn't it would have been outsold by an MK8 bumped WiiU in June 2014.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Hook him up on FFXIV

Not to generalize with ignorance, but having been a major proponent of Xbox all throughout OGXbox and XB360, and having been in frequent contact with the mind set, its just the unfortunate truth that Japanese brands not only don't interest a majority of consumers who buy into Xbox.

On the contrary a majority who buy Xbox are more likely to actually be repelled specifically by any non western traits and aesthetics regardless of game quality.

You bought Xbox if you were into western games specifically. It was like that with OG Xbox, it lessened somewhat with the 360's Japanese push early on(only relatively), but quickly collapsed again in later years, and i'd assume the XB1 player base to be even more in that direction than ever before considering the numbers.

I don't know if its cultural differences, simply not giving things a chance or what, but its unfortunate in my opinion.
 

stryke

Member
The Xbox One did only manage 77k in May 2014 prompting those pre-E3 emergency price cuts / Kinect unbundling though.
I think it's fair to say if it hadn't it would have been outsold by an MK8 bumped WiiU in June 2014.

The pricecut caused that drop to 77k, not the other way around. They announced it quite early ahead of June so consumers were aware for some time and waited.
 

Welfare

Member
The Xbox One did only manage 77k in May 2014 prompting those pre-E3 emergency price cuts / Kinect unbundling though.
I think it's fair to say if it hadn't it would have been outsold by an MK8 bumped WiiU in June 2014.

Microsoft "threw away" May as they announced the price cut halfway into May.
 
The pricecut caused that drop to 77k, not the other way around. They announced it quite early ahead of June so consumers were aware for some time and waited.

It's chicken and egg - May was down partially because they offset sales into June by announcing drastic price cut measures, but those measures were necessary because sales were on a sharply downward trajectory.

Microsoft "threw away" May as they announced the price cut halfway into May.

Yes, absolutely - I agree with the poster Cosmic was disputing that they were spending money to maintain marketshare.
 
Given recent rumours about the PS4 making up 80% of the market in Europe and the recent de-branding of other entertainment divisions like Video and Music to disassociate themselves from the Xbox brand, I have a feeling that the end of July earnings call is going to be pretty brutal, rather than "We got moneys bro, it don't matter".

Really well put however if I may it was 70% but frequently 90% of the EU. I believe 70% was for the UK.
 
The Xbox One did only manage 77k in May 2014 prompting those pre-E3 emergency price cuts / Kinect unbundling though.
I think it's fair to say if it hadn't it would have been outsold by an MK8 bumped WiiU in June 2014.

Being behind one month and "being behind" are two different things.

They were asking far too high a price for a product few people wanted. Unbundling the Kinect was a move that had to be made.
 

stryke

Member
Really well put however if I may it was 70% but frequently 90% of the EU. I believe 70% was for the UK.

Unlikely. Tracking the timeline of LTD announcements doesn't really put PS4 that far ahead in UK. Jim was probably just talking about mainland Europe.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Read the OP and it says the 14th at 8pm ;)

I checked US time and saw it was 7:40pm. I checked UK date and it said the 14th.

I just assumed that made it the 14th in the US as well lol.

Unlikely. Tracking the timeline of LTD announcements doesn't really put PS4 that far ahead in UK. Jim was probably just talking about mainland Europe.

Jim specifically excluded the UK when talking about the majority market share that PlayStation holds in Europe. It's part of the full interview.
 

Jigorath

Banned
To touch on what Zhuge brought up last page, why are there people making alts to just come and shit on the NPD threads. Money might be a reason for doing it, but what is the goal they are hoping to achieve by doing this?

Fanboys will be fanboys.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Sorry if I pissed off or offended anyone as that definitely wasn't my intention whatsoever. In the end, I just don't think that there's any valid reason for Sony to drop the price until next year.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Sales are slowing down. That's enough reason by itself.

True but it's the same for Xbox One. Going by the NPD threads for January to May -

January
PS4: 190k
One: 151k

February
PS4: 342k
One: 276k

March
PS4: 340k
One: 236k

April
PS4: 174k
One: 187k

May
PS4: 152k
One: 139k

Sales have declined for both consoles since February. Not like it's only PS4. And neither console has had any top tier "exclusives" since Bloodborne released back in March so the decline in sales isn't really shocking at all especially when this time of year slow and outside of late May/June with The Witcher 3 and Batman, there's really nothing until later this year. You can count re-mastered games like God of War III and Gears of War and while I see both giving their respective consoles a slight bump, it will still most likely be lower than what June is expected to be.
 

stryke

Member
Sony are expecting to sell more PS4S this year but earn less money compared to last. That says price cut to me.

But if there is no price cut then what would limit their revenue? Expansion costs for PS Vue? Third party deals?
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Sony are expecting to sell more PS4S this year but earn less money compared to last. That says price cut to me.

But if there is no price cut then what would limit their income? Expansion costs for PS Vue? Third party deals?

Third party deals, losses on projects that didn't work (The Order comes to mind which is sad because I was really hoping for it to be a trilogy, oh well) and before the end of their fiscal year, im expecting them to fully update their PSN online service.

I personally don't give two craps about their online service since im a single player gamer, don't have PS+ nor do I want it and I don't play online but in general, I know that it's average at best and is in need of a severe upgrade especially when you take into account how much money Sony makes on PS+ subscriptions. I would be very surprised if they don't upgrade the service before the end of their current fiscal year.
 
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