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Mat Piscatella: US Video Game Hardware Market Peaked in 2008, young people not buying consoles much; Every company looking to expand beyond consoles.

Three

Member
Nah, be real, it wouldn't matter even if they were. PSVR2 ain't moving units.. and PSPortal isn't either.
I'm not sure why you brought them up then. Do you want to argue individual game hardware spending has not increased either? It's not even what you were saying before about new individuals.

It doesn't need to move many units. You're looking at a revenue graph. A £500 and a £200 device. Think of how the index was charting at #1 on steam with barely any sales. Revenue would be much greater than 2008 if Elite/Pro controllers, PSVR, Headphones, Portal etc were included.

The chart isn't adjusted for inflation... which means it's vastly worse than it actually looks in that chart.
What's worse exactly? What would inflation show when hardware prices and specs are based on those price ceilings and game prices haven't adjusted much to inflation at all?

That's the problem with what he's presented, he thinks units have gone down? Then show units and compare but realise that in 2008 the same addressable market had to or could buy a separate handheld to play all Nintendo or Sony games. Also keep in mind that 2008 Wii was an anomaly regarding demographics.
And I disagree with the premise that Mat is purposefully framing it to show consoles struggling... what he's doing is framing how they're remaining flat... hardware spending-wise. It's simply meaning that the addressable market isn't growing for them.. and they've got to look elsewhere for growth and establish themselves in other markets because trends show that younger gamers aren't as interested in the consoles.. that's all.

He hasn't shown that though and thats my issue with how he's using incorrect data to make these conclusions. He needs to either show actual data to back up the hypothesis he's making or I'm going to assume that's exactly what he's doing.

There is data out there suggesting that up to 1/3 of PS5 owners did not own the previous console so they must be coming from somewhere:

 
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saintjules

Member
There is data out there suggesting that up to 1/3 of PS5 owners did not own the previous console so they must be coming from somewhere:


Always find the stats weird. He hasn't spoken to any of us in here. So wouldn't it be more than 1/3 of owners if everyone provided data to make the numbers bigger?
 

Three

Member
Always find the stats weird. He hasn't spoken to any of us in here. So wouldn't it be more than 1/3 of owners if everyone provided data to make the numbers bigger?
It's a percentage based on the MAU of PS5. I suspect they can track which users had previously logged in on a PS4.

To put into perspective the hardware sales growth since 2008 for Playstation. In 2008 the entire Game division (software sales, PSN, hardware,) did around 0.9T yen revenue. In 2022 they did 1.2T yen from just hardware alone. 4T yen total.
 
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I'm not sure why you brought them up then. Do you want to argue individual game hardware spending has not increased either? It's not even what you were saying before about new individuals.

It doesn't even need to move many units. You're looking at a revenue graph. A £500 and a £200 device. Think of how the index was charting at #1 on steam with barely any sales. Revenue would be much greater than 2008 if Elite/Pro controllers, PSVR, Headphones, Portal etc were included.


What's worse exactly? What would inflation show when hardware prices and specs are based on those price ceilings and game prices haven't adjusted much to inflation at all?

That's the problem with what he's presented, he thinks units have gone down? Then show units and compare but realise that in 2008 the same addressable market had to or could buy a separate handheld to play all Nintendo or Sony games. Also keep in mind that 2008 Wii was an anomaly regarding demographics.


He hasn't shown that though and thats my issue with how he's using incorrect data to make these conclusions. He needs to either show actual data to back up the hypothesis he's making or I'm going to assume that's exactly what he's doing.

There is data out there suggesting that up to 1/3 of PS5 owners did not own the previous console so they must be coming from somewhere:

-I brought them up simply because you said there was less hardware to buy these days. Again, ask yourself why that is...

-Nah, because in 2008 there were also controllers and other gaming devices that existed.

-Adjusting for inflation would drastically increase the money spent on hardware in 2008 time period compared to now...... lol. This is a chart about hardware spend... games not adjusting to inflation has no bearing on it.

He hasn't said anything about units going down... he's said hardware spending hasn't grown compared to 2008. And he has data which shows younger generations aren't buying into consoles and it skews towards the older generations.

He's not using incorrect data.

-And I'm sure there's data that a ton of people who bought PS4's didn't own PS3s... and people who bought PS3's who didn't own PS2s.... See what I'm getting at? Out of the entire market that buys consoles... say around 250M people... they can sell 100M consoles one generation, and sell 100M the next generation.. and it doesn't mean they're all the same people..
 
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Akuji

Member
Mat is a bit of an idiot who has a platform because he has access to data that most don't.

Suggesting that gaming peaked in spending in 2008 when most of the spending was on the Wii and was from non core-gamers is highly misleading.

He isn't entirely wrong in his analysis that younger people aren't as interested in consoles, but just because you get to the right conclusion doesn't make your math right.

We've largely seen growth in core gaming, the Wii was largely a fluke that had little overall impact on the industry overall. 3rd party games weren't selling on the Wii. If we looked at just software sales it would show us a clearer picture of the health of the industry and how much of an outlier the Wii was.

Edit: Imagine putting smartphone sales into the hardware equation because people can play games on them. That's how ridiculous his argument is here.
Thanks men,
Post like this one are why i come into this forum.
Appreciate it
 

CLW

Member
wii curling GIF


I mean until someone figure out how to get grandmas and grandpas to buy consoles again
 

Three

Member
-I brought them up simply because you said there was less hardware to buy these days. Again, ask yourself why that is...
There isn't less hardware to buy, there are far more (more expensive/Premium too). There are only less platforms to buy because both the PSP and DS do no exist separately anymore to boost that specific stat in 2008 along with the Wii demographic.
-Nah, because in 2008 there were also controllers and other gaming devices that existed.
Are you still going with your gut feeling? I posted the hardware revenue increase for Sony 2008 vs 2022. Do you still believe hardware revenue hasn't increased significantly?

-Adjusting for inflation would drastically increase the money spent on hardware in 2008 time period compared to now...... lol. This is a chart about hardware spend... games not adjusting to inflation has no bearing on it.
The info about games was just thrown in to show that overall revenue for the big three there isn't affected by it. The hardware/consoles have price ceilings that are not increasing with inflation either. They could, especially with how scalping happened, but they're not. Doesn't mean less or more people are buying it. Hence my comment about units to show the trend he's suggesting. You had price reductions and $199 consoles in the past but the units for all consoles wasn't higher either. Where do you think it came from in 2008? handhelds and wii.

He hasn't said anything about units going down... he's said hardware spending hasn't grown compared to 2008. And he has data which shows younger generations aren't buying into consoles and it skews towards the older generations.

He's not using incorrect data.
What is he saying then if he isn't saying consoles are dying out and companies are looking elsewhere?

He is saying that the companies are looking elsewhere to find new people for growth because kids aren't buying consoles and the older people would naturally diminish. In 2008 people were buying DS, PSP, those weren't new people but he's using them to paint an incorrect picture. A lot of those who also bought a PSP were the same people who owned a PS3. So how can he make comparisons like that to show there are fewer people buying consoles?
-And I'm sure there's data that a ton of people who bought PS4's didn't own PS3s... and people who bought PS3's who didn't own PS2s.... See what I'm getting at?
No I don't. You're saying the new users were greater then? Show the relevant data. Don't do what Mat is doing. Incorrectly using 2008 as a crutch for his hypothesis without the actual relevant data.
 
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When did they ever give a number for what the PS5 will reach?
Wait what, so you're not even keeping up with what Sony has said and then you say what they stated was bullshit? Wow this explains a lot, alright.. don't talk about things you quite literally know nothing about, you're literally just wasting everyone's time by posting on here instead spending that time learning the very things you don't know but seemingly feel compelled to talk about.
 

drganon

Member
Wait what, so you're not even keeping up with what Sony has said and then you say what they stated was bullshit? Wow this explains a lot, alright.. don't talk about things you quite literally know nothing about, you're literally just wasting everyone's time by posting on here instead spending that time learning the very things you don't know but seemingly feel compelled to talk about.
You should take your own advice.
 

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
The types of games played on your typical mobile/tablet/budget laptops differ greatly from those played on your gaming consoles. They are a different target audience; if console manufacturers want to sell content to such an audience, they must create unique content. I don't see much of an overlap.

With regards to PC, sure there is an overlap, but the audience who prefer to play on consoles will remain on consoles.

Problem for them is that those who prefer to play on console is giving way to the laptop/mobile/tablet audience. The general entertainment habit has changed. People are less likely to sit still in front of a TV on hours now compared to the yesteryears.
 

elmos-acc

Member
they were never that big on console to begin with. they were gimmicks and fads. let the smart phone market have them
That's not true. Those things made consoles something a whole family could enjoy in their living room. Singstar and Guitar Hero made a lot more people have fun than almost all of the edgy brown shooters that appeared in the following generation.
 
That's not true. Those things made consoles something a whole family could enjoy in their living room. Singstar and Guitar Hero made a lot more people have fun than almost all of the edgy brown shooters that appeared in the following generation.

Maybe in Europe but sing star wasn’t a thing in the US

Guitar hero was also a fad

Both of these games have not come back, replaced by apps like TikTok or whatever
 

Woopah

Member
Schitts Creek Lol GIF by CBC


I don't get it: what's his job exactly?

- To read real data fans have to convert his useless data to real numbers

- He's probably the worst analyst you can find


And he's probably making big money out of this, unbelievable
His real job is to support paying customers. People pay a minimum of $25,000 a year to have access to the real data, so there's little incentive for them to give it away to fand for free (as annoying as it is).
Nintendo consolidated their portable and console hardware business was due to many factors but the major issue was catering to both audiences with a constant stream of quality and quantity of software and content. And avoid the major content drought during many month for both it's portable and console consumers.

As you are aware, the majority of content consumed by the audience that buys Nintendo hardware are buying them for Nintendo software, and 3rd party content are just icing on the cake. The proof of this are the software sales figures where Nintendo 1st party content dominates the charts, as opposed to the opposite with Sony and Xbox where 3rd party software are the bulk of the sales.

So Nintendo releasing 1st party software for both the portable and console with a relatively small team of developers is no easy task, especially to satisfy the damand of both markets at a satisfactory level, and with the increasing competitive market in the console space with Sony and Playstation.

How do they solve the problem? How do they cater for both audiences at the same time and decrease both development time and cost, and consequently reduce overhead cost? Yes you guest it, consolidation. Making a hybrid console that caters to both markets. Their decision proved a success and their sales of both software and hardwares speaks for themselves.

However, we do know that there is demand for a dedicated handheld space with the Steam Deck. Its priced as a premium product, and it caters to a different target audience than Nintendo. It targets gamers who wants to play their PC games on the go. It's reletive success and existance proves that the demand for such devices exists.

Sure the mobile phones exits, but the majority of its software are free to pay trash with micro transactions and shit. Same gaming on the go market, but different target audiences.

With regards to Xbox, anyone with half a brain knows that they have lost alot of their audience to other platforms and PC due to release their exclusive games on it rather than keeping it exclusive to their own platform. You don't need an Xbox. My point is, it's console sales won't be such a disappointment if they focused on 1st party software like Sony and Nintendo, and created demand for their on platform. The maket would have looked very differently from how it is now with 3 major healthy platform holders. And instead, MS with its XBS failure, managed so drag down the market.

I forgot to mention that the pandemic also severely affected the supply chain, especially with the PS5. I'd imagine the market would look very different if Sony had managed to satisfy the demand of the PS5 during the initial 2 years of its launch.

Finally you seem to neglect the fact the all consoles are priced nowadays at a premium rate instead of the mass market price of the previous generations to maximise profits, versus unit sales. Both Sony and Nintendo are currently more successful in terms of profit and software sales than in 2008, and it's not even close. This is in my opinion the barometer for success instead of hardware revenue.

Mat making a statement like this without context is extremely disingenuous, and the majority of us here knows better than him with regards to the actual market health.
Agree with pretty much all of this.

Third party sales are still the majority of sales on Switch, but you're right that its on a much much lesser degree than on Xbox or PlayStation.
Not to mention that during that market "peak" you had a Wii that was punching above its weight with sales to non-gamers like nursing homes and soccer moms as an exercise device. Very much a temporary expansion for the gaming industry due to a mega-fad device. I think it is funny that we have "analysts" who are doing surface level tidbit summaries like this. Devils in the details, as they say, but Mat Piscatella cannot be bothered with that nonsense.
A lot of the Wii market has left, but I'd say a fair chunk of it has been recaptured by the Switch.
 
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ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
That's not true. Those things made consoles something a whole family could enjoy in their living room. Singstar and Guitar Hero made a lot more people have fun than almost all of the edgy brown shooters that appeared in the following generation.

I still remember the old days where consoles have unique selling points in the form of popular experimental stuffs like DDR dance mat or light gun peripherals. At least flight sticks, arcade sticks and steering wheels still hang around.

You can still tinker and use them on PC so its better than nothing. Certainly miss the days of Time Crisis at home.
 
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You should take your own advice.
You should take mine. Im just saying what Sony said, you and the other dude are just arguing with Sony lol and don't care to do your own homework because spending 2 seconds on a forum to type "nu uh" is easier than actually reading facts. Badabing badaboom.

And don't bother replying you're literally wasting you and come to think of it everyone else's time. ✌️
 

drganon

Member
You should take mine. Im just saying what Sony said, you and the other dude are just arguing with Sony lol and don't care to do your own homework because spending 2 seconds on a forum to type "nu uh" is easier than actually reading facts. Badabing badaboom.

And don't bother replying you're literally wasting you and come to think of it everyone else's time. ✌️
Oh please, you're just parroting the sonytoo talking point since you can't handle Xbox failing.

Continue to cope and seethe.
 

Celine

Member
Yes because the generation ended August 2010...

GTA5 released in 2013.
Arkham City released in 2011.


The PS3 didn't start hitting its stride until late 2009 and its already close to parity with the Wii here and the 360 was significantly ahead on 3rd party support as was the DS despite the Wii being a console that sold 100 million units, it's attach rate for 3rd party was pretty bad.
I see you aren't smart enough to understand why your statement that "3rd party games weren't selling on the Wii" [in US, as per the framing in OP] is dumb when presented with evidence of the contrary.
Third-party software on Wii sold well above 100 million units in US by mid 2010 which cannot be considered a small or negligible amount. This is not up to debate.

Note that the reason I posted those charts, from which can be derived the cumulative software sales in US as August 2010 per platform, is that's what is publicly available.
Do not assume that because you spout non-sense without data backing your claims others might not have access to not publicly available data with cumulative figures at the end of the consoles lifespan.
That 360 sold more third-party software than Wii in US do not invalidate what I stated because my stance is based on the amount of Wii third-party software sales which is big.

Look at the third party sales on the wii as a percentage of sales and you'll see that he's right. Then realise that there was only 1 publisher and a hand full of games that did really well on it (Ubisoft, Just dance, Rabbids).
See above.

Fun fact, the Wii had a pretty high attachment rate. It was like 8 or 9 games per console. So it was never true that the average Wii user bought it for Wii sports and that was it.
Wii tie ratio is in the same range as PS1 and PS2 (9.xx).

PS1: 9.39
PS2: 9.92
WII: 9.07
 
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Wildebeest

Member
Gaming is a weird. If something makes a billion dollars, many to new players, so it isn't cannibalising sales for other games, it is seen as a "total failure" or a "fad" if players are happy with the games but don't buy the same game over and over every year for 20+ years.
 

Three

Member
I see you aren't smart enough to understand why your statement that "3rd party games weren't selling on the Wii" [in US, as per the framing in OP] is dumb when presented with evidence of the contrary.
Third-party software on Wii sold well above 100 million units in US by mid 2010 which cannot be considered a small or negligible amount. This is not up to debate.

Note that the reason I posted those charts, from which can be derived the cumulative software sales in US as August 2010 per platform, is that's what is publicly available.
Do not asume that because you spout non-sense without data backing your claims others might not have access to not publicly available data with cumulative figures at the end of the consoles lifespan.


See above.
See above for what? When the Wii with 25M consoles sells around the same amount of third party games than the PS3 or PSP with 10M consoles or less its not unfathomable to say third party games didn't do that well on it. I mean it's obvious why you didn't share this particular slide from that conference right?

77l.jpg



It gets worse when you break down the actual third party sales. Only a handful of third party games did well for 1 or 2 publishers. Just Dance, Rabbids (Ubisoft) and Sonic, Mario and Sonic Olympic games (Sega US only). You can even partly see the effect of this because Wii third party sales were worse than the PS3 or PSP in Japan not even just ratio wise. It didn't help that Mario and Sonic was published by Nintendo (first party) there. When you look at other juggernaut third party releases though like Fifa, COD, Madden, Prince of persia, Dead rising, ... they all did terrible sales on Wii.
 
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Celine

Member
See above for what? When the Wii with 25M consoles sells around the same amount of third party games than the PS3 or PSP with 10M consoles or less its not unfathomable to say third party games didn't do that well on it. It gets worse when you break down the actual third party sales. Only a handful of third party games did well for 1 or 2 publishers. Just Dance, Rabbids (Ubisoft) and Sonic, Mario and Sonic Olympic games (Sega US only). You can even partly see the effect of this because Wii third party sales were worse than the PS3 or PSP in Japan. It didn't help that Mario and Sonic was published by Nintendo (first party) there. When you look at other juggernaut third party releases though like Fifa, COD, Madden, Prince of persia, Dead rising, ... they all did terrible sales on Wii.
Third-parties sold a big amount of Wii software in US ("hundreds of millions" big).

Also let me tell you that saying third-party games sales on PSP in US were around the same amount the ones on Wii is a big big joke.
 
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Three

Member
Third-party sold a big amount of software in US.

Also let me tell you that saying third-party games sales on PSP in US were around the same amount the ones on WII is a big big joke.
So you're just going to ignore what I said and continue to cherrypick data?

I'm looking at your own cherrypicked August 2010 only graphs. Overall the PSP fell later if that's what you mean.
 

Celine

Member
So you're just going to ignore what I said and continue to cherrypick data?

I'm looking at your own cherrypicked August 2010 only graphs. Overall the PSP fell later if that's what you mean.
I'm not cherrypicking anything.
Already by August 2010 in US third-parties software sales on PSP were much lower than the Wii ones.
However it's true that the gap would get larger later on.

EDIT:
Wait, your "cherrypicked" is relative to the graphs "only" containing the cumulative data until August 2010?
If so instead of writing "See above for what?" read more carefully the post you've quoted.
 
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Three

Member
I'm not cherrypicking anything.
Already by August 2010 in US third-parties software sales on PSP were much lower than the Wii ones.
However it's true that the gap would get larger later on.
You are though, for example using a Nintendo presentation going up to 2010 only (the peak of Wii) where the third party sales creator for Wii later and 360/PS3 third party sales start to significantly outpace it with games like Skyrim and GTA5. A bit deceptive no?
 

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Gaming is a weird. If something makes a billion dollars, many to new players, so it isn't cannibalising sales for other games, it is seen as a "total failure" or a "fad" if players are happy with the games but don't buy the same game over and over every year for 20+ years.

Perhaps some people not want to count some hardware or games so that the facts and numbers will align to what they are happy with.
 

wolffy66

Member
I don't really think I know anyone without a gaming console. So yeah unless the US starts having real population growth, there's much more room for growth. They can sustain, but there's not some segment of the people left untapped.
 

nowhat

Member
Isn't the Switch closing the gap on becoming the best selling console of all time?
It still has some ~15M to reach PS2/DS (at ~155M), although recently Jim "the Devil incarnate" Ryan said PS2 was at 160M. But all those figures are inconclusive.
 

nowhat

Member
no they are not. PS2 will remain King.
PS2 was a juggernaut for sure, but the last official numbers (155M) are like from a decade ago. That it would have sold 5M after that... it's possible of course, but also a bit sus.

...but even if Switch were able to reach PS2 figures, they cater to different markets. PS2 was decidedly a home console (and a DVD player, let's be real). Whereas Switch is both a handheld, and a home console for those with poor enough eyesight that complete lack of AA doesn't bother them.
 
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ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Isn't the Switch closing the gap on becoming the best selling console of all time?

Thing is, it is not anywhere near Wii+DS.
Same for Sony's PS5 with PS3+PSP.

The size of the console audience base changed, and they were forced to drop the dedicated portable segment to cope. Given a choice there's no reason why Sony wouldn't want an additional successful portable handheld in parallel to PS5 right now.
 

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
The size of the console audience base changed, and they were forced to drop the dedicated portable segment to cope.
Who said they were forced to do anything? If they wanted to they could go back to doing both handheld and console with no issue for finding audiences for both. The problem is that developing for both systems is exponentially more expensive now than it was in 2014 thanks to handheld going HD, inflation and longer development times that's impacting Nintendo as well as the rest of the industry
 

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
I think the facts that people are ignoring is kids just aren't interested in consoles.

Give it ten to fifteen years when these lot grow up and its going to be even worse.
People really like to talk anecdotal evidence and all that but really... it feels like a trend from where I'm at, most of the experiences discussed here align with how I see where people have been taking their gaming habits lately

I wouldn't say gen z isn't interested in consoles as much as they arent interested in the 9th gen consoles.
The only game driving interest for the newerr consoles is gta6 in my area. Everyone else is fine with their 10+ year old ps4s and xbones playing cod and fortnite.

Majority of gaming is done on a phone and the people who are core/affluent enough to dig deeper than that typically spring for a PC. I think that will change in 2025 when gta6 releases but outside of that one game people are just not all that crazy about a ps5 or Xbox series

On the internet, many spaces (especially discord, twitter and steam) are pc dominated, and people would much rather play on that platform for whatever purpose. I could be extremely biased since I hang around pc spaces in general, but whereas PS and Xbox feel like gaming communities, specialized spaces where people who own those systems come to discuss, PC (and Nintendo due to the sheer strength of their IP) feels like the prevailing default outside of that. If you join a platform agnostic server on a game, you are by default assumed to be a PC player. It makes sense too since PCs are also very capable internet machines.
 

Tomi

Member
That is completely true because Sony said ps5 will probably be most sold console since ps1 era

Nonsense
 

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Who said they were forced to do anything? If they wanted to they could go back to doing both handheld and console with no issue for finding audiences for both. The problem is that developing for both systems is exponentially more expensive now than it was in 2014 thanks to handheld going HD, inflation and longer development times that's impacting Nintendo as well as the rest of the industry

you literally explained yourself with the bolded how they were forced (by the industry climate) to consolidate their product offering.
 
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I think the facts that people are ignoring is kids just aren't interested in consoles.

Give it ten to fifteen years when these lot grow up and its going to be even worse.
I partially agree with this. Overall, I think Mats numbers are a little disingenuous. 08-09 was when all consoles where pretty much hitting on all cylinders. We haven't really had that since. MS has been pretty much a disaster since then, and Nintendo has arguably had the lowest of lows and the highest of highs.

But yea, I do I think it shows younger kids aren't interested in console gaming as much, but I don't think that means they automatically wont be in the future. Hell, as a kid, I had consoles and handhelds and my handhelds got MUCH more play. Nowadays, I barely use a handheld, only for travel really. My switch is docked 99% of the time. (Although my switch also hasnt been turned on since last summer when I played ToTK) And I don't use the PS portal at home at all. Not saying this will happen, but they could grow out of mobile games and move to either PC or console and I wouldn't be totally shocked.
 
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