I said *borderline* insane. Not completely insane.
A little insane is that Wii would knock one of those down. That could happen. Completely insane is that Wii would overtake both. I want Wii to do well too but the facts are:
- Americans are graphics whores. We love movies with big special effects. Wii is not the best in that department.
- The PlayStation brand holds a ton of weight in the current market. It would take an eff-up of ridiculously catastrophic proportions (PS3s catching fire in people's homes at Christmastime) to swat Sony from its perch.
- The best-selling games in the US are sports, FPSes and GTA violence-fests and Wii doesn't have much of those.
- Xbox 360 has had a year's head start and has a wide selection of the types of games an American audience has already proven it is very interested in.
- Best Buy and stores like it are really pushing HD tech gear and Wii doesn't really fit into that equation as well as PS3/360.
I still think Wii will do extremely well, but Nintendo is not working from a position of particular strength in the home market at the moment. It could flip, and I hope it does. But the realist in me isn't so sure.