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[test_account]

2007's software lineup is stronger than 2008 for the PS3.

I was thinking of worldwide, but since this is a Media Create thread about Japan sales i guess i should have pointed that out, sorry.

I agree that the 2007 lineup in Japan was stronger than the lineup for 2008 (atleast from the titles we know for sure that will come in 2008). I dont know if there is too much of a difference in Japan compared to the rest of the world though when it comes to what Sony's strategy is with PS3. PS3 seems to be getting some games atleast so i wouldnt say that Sony has "abandoned" the game part of the PS3 and focused more on the movie side, but i'm not that familiar with how the Bluray situation is in Japan so i cant really say too much about it.


EDIT: I just saw some list posted in this thread earlier with some titles that are/were released in 2008. It seems that 2008 have a decent lineup compared to 2007 afterall, i didnt think about all those games that were posted earlier in this thread. Are GT5 and White Knight Story set for 2008 guaranteed? If so, i'd say its hard to say if 2007 or 2008 has/had the strongest lineup. Both years have/had some big game releases.

Sony may not still be selling us out vs. movies on the software side, but they haven't corrected the hardware side BS yet. The PSP's TV out can only do full screen for movies, not for games. And the PS3 has an equivalent problem: movies can be output at any resolution, but most games can only be displayed in 720p, which leaves my main television running games in SD.

I do feel screwed over. Not because these systems can do movies, or even because they cost more due to that fact, but because they're more feature-rich for movies than for games.

I think this is due to hardware specs and its nothing that can be fixed without upgrading the hardware specs itself. I assume that a game will use much more of the hardware's power compared to what movies does. If the systems (in this case the PSP and the PS3) should upscale the games too i'm sure it would require extra hardware power. If the game already uses most of the systems' hardware power it wont be able to upscale without taking a hit in the framerate, making the game run slower. That is my guess atleast.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

I was thinking of worldwide, but since this is a Media Create thread about Japan sales i guess i should have pointed that out, sorry.

I agree that the 2007 lineup in Japan was stronger than the lineup for 2008 (atleast from the titles we know for sure that will come in 2008). I dont know if there is too much of a difference in Japan compared to the rest of the world though when it comes to what Sony's strategy is with PS3. PS3 seems to be getting some games atleast so i wouldnt say that Sony has "abandoned" the game part of the PS3 and focused more on the movie side, but i'm not that familiar with how the Bluray situation is in Japan so i cant really say too much about it.

I think the main reason people are saying that is the lack of solid first-party title support aimed at the Japanese market. SCEI just doesn't have much announced for the upcoming year on PS3 outside some Eye of Judgement expansions. Yes, there's still a few "TBA" titles like LBP and WKS, but there's not a lot out there.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I think the main reason people are saying that is the lack of solid first-party title support aimed at the Japanese market. SCEI just doesn't have much announced for the upcoming year on PS3 outside some Eye of Judgement expansions. Yes, there's still a few "TBA" titles like LBP and WKS, but there's not a lot out there.

SCEI doesn't have a single PS3 game scheduled, counting SCEA and SCEE games too. Not a single thing for PS2 either. echochrome (out in 4 days) and Eighting's 5th Bleach title for the PSP.

So in 4 days we can say SCEI doesn't have a single game scheduled other than 8ing's Bleach for any of its platforms and from any of its worldwide studios plus 2nd party projects.

Hats off to SCEI.


PD: well I'm wrong again thanks to nippon no asoko de (PSP), which looks hell weird:
http://www.gametrailers.com/player/31373.html

That makes 1 SCEI game for PSP and 1 8ing game for PSP too. Not sure if I should pick up my hat...

 

[test_account]

I think the main reason people are saying that is the lack of solid first-party title support aimed at the Japanese market. SCEI just doesn't have much announced for the upcoming year on PS3 outside some Eye of Judgement expansions. Yes, there's still a few "TBA" titles like LBP and WKS, but there's not a lot out there.

Ye, that might be, but is Bluray the only reason for that? (impossible for us to answer though, but we can speculate ). I was also thinking of 3rd party games, doesnt Sony support these in any way or something?

PD: well I'm wrong again thanks to nippon no asoko de (PSP), which looks hell weird:
http://www.gametrailers.com/player/31373.html

That makes 1 SCEI game for PSP and 1 8ing game for PSP too. Not sure if I should pick up my hat...

Hehe, that game looks wierd ye, but it it looks cool to fly over the city (if you can land anywhere and visit the locations ). But ye, pity that SCEI doesnt have too much games announced :\

 

[Phife Dawg]

Ninja Gaiden series never put a dent in the charts. It's a good game, but sales wise, never did anything, due for it being on the Xbox. And Blade Storm? Really?

2008 line-up:
-Gran Turismo 5
-Soul Calibur 4
-Tekken 6
-Pro Yakyuu Spirits 5
-Senjou no Valkyria
-Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit
-Metal Gear Solid 4
-White Knight Chronicles
-Trusty Bell
-Devil May Cry 4
-Ryu Ga Gotoku Kenzan!

If you are talking straight sales potential SC, T6, Val, the baseball game should be scratched off. 2007 also saw FolkSouls, amongst other titles but only the Sony faithful expected that to do decent. PYS was released in 2007 as well.

DW, the merger of DW and Gundam, WE and HSG trump everything except GT in terms of sales potential.

Those are quality games but there was too long a gap inbetween games. The overall lineup sucked as a result. It would have been better if there was something inbetween. The gap between HSG5 and DW6 was far too long.

So as a consequence this year will be better just because of GT? Does not compute. Plus you can't expect a huge game like DW, DW:G, HSG, WE to come out every month. That's just not gonna happen.

 

[Lightning]

So as a consequence this year will be better just because of GT? Does not compute. Plus you can't expect a huge game like DW, DW:G, HSG, WE to come out every month. That's just not gonna happen.

WE was on every system and will be again this year. I fail to see why that counts especially since the PS2 version stole all the sales. And I expect MGS4 to have a much bigger impact than the whored out DW series. GT tops HSG5 so the 2008 lineup as it stands is better.

 

[jeremy1456]

WE was on every system and will be again this year. I fail to see why that counts especially since the PS2 version stole all the sales. And I expect MGS4 to have a much bigger impact than the whored out DW series. GT tops HSG5 so the 2008 lineup as it stands is better.

Dynasty Warriors is more popular than MGS in Japan, so umm, yeah. HSG is also more popular than GT.

 

[Version 3.0]

I think this is due to hardware specs and its nothing that can be fixed without upgrading the hardware specs itself. I assume that a game will use much more of the hardware's power compared to what movies does. If the systems (in this case the PSP and the PS3) should upscale the games too i'm sure it would require extra hardware power. If the game already uses most of the systems' hardware power it wont be able to upscale without taking a hit in the framerate, making the game run slower. That is my guess atleast.

On the PSP side--it's a brand-new piece of hardware. There's no excuse for its limitation.

The PS3 obviously CAN output scaled 1080i/p, because some games do so now. Whatever the issue is can be addressed. It may not fix older games, but it can deal with all upcoming ones. If it's a performance issue, then the PS3 must be far weaker than we're led to believe. The 360 has no problem drawing any game scaled to 1080p.

 

[Lightning]

Dynasty Warriors is more popular than MGS in Japan, so umm, yeah. HSG is also more popular than GT.

It's also whored and experiencing a big deterioration in quality. HSG is not more popular than GT.

 

[Ceres]

WE was on every system and will be again this year. I fail to see why that counts especially since the PS2 version stole all the sales. And I expect MGS4 to have a much bigger impact than the whored out DW series. GT tops HSG5 so the 2008 lineup as it stands is better.

It might have a better impact but it's still very much a western game. MGS3 sold less than 900k in Japan total when there was over 15 million consoles in rotation at the time of release (2/3 of those sales were from the first week).

 

[schuelma]

I think MGS4 will do very well. Maybe not match the previous versions, but at least do over 500K.

 

[jeremy1456]

It's also whored and experiencing a big deterioration in quality. HSG is not more popular than GT.

It's possible that I'm wrong about HSG. I was going off of memory with that one.

Deterioration in quality and being whored out hasn't slowed down Final Fantasy's sales, why would it mess with Dynasty Warriors'?

 

[Stumpokapow]

It's also whored and experiencing a big deterioration in quality. HSG is not more popular than GT.

It's probably fair to say that these are rough pre-PS3 franchise rankings in Japan:

1. Final Fantasy / DQ
2. Kingdom Hearts / GT / HSG / DW -- yes, they're all around equally popular. DW has more releases and fewer sales per release, but they're all around the same.
3. MGS / Tales high profile / PES / Ridge Racer / Monster Hunter
4. DMC / VF / Yakuza / RE / Tales low profile / very high profile anime licences

You might do some checking and reveal that <x title> beat <y title> but these are pretty good rough rankings.

 

[test_account]

On the PSP side--it's a brand-new piece of hardware. There's no excuse for its limitation.

The PS3 obviously CAN output scaled 1080i/p, because some games do so now. Whatever the issue is can be addressed. It may not fix older games, but it can deal with all upcoming ones. If it's a performance issue, then the PS3 must be far weaker than we're led to believe. The 360 has no problem drawing any game scaled to 1080p.

What i ment is that if a game uses i.e 99% of what the hardware can do, and it needs 10% of the hardware power to upscale the picture it wont work since there is only 1% left of the hardware power avalible, which wont be enough to upscale the picture without changing the preformance of the game. Then it doesnt matter if the hardware is new or old. Naturally all PSP games doesnt take 99% advantage of the hardware power, but this is just my guess that could be one of the reasons why fullscreen scaling for PSP games isnt possible.

But now that you mentioned "brand-new piece of hardware", i do remember that the PSP Slim has 64MB RAM instead of 32MB RAM that the first PSP model has. The PSP is now also unlocked so its CPU runs at 333MHz instead of 233MHz as it did before. I have no idea if upscaling requires much CPU power, or if this is an issue at all, but its just my guess. However, if the 360 can upscale every game to 1080p the same thing about games using 99% of the hardware also applies here so my guess might be wrong. But i would guess that there is atleast some legitimate reason for why you cant upscale PSP games, atleast not yet. I wouldnt see any legitimate reasons for why they would hold it back if it was easy to upscale the PSP games (well.. i guess there is a possibility of not wanting to use time and money on it, or just pure lazyness hehe Or a combination of both, its hard to say unfortunately).

 

[Lightning]

It's possible that I'm wrong about HSG. I was going off of memory with that one.

Deterioration in quality and being whored out hasn't slowed down Final Fantasy's sales, why would it mess with Dynasty Warriors'?

The side games for Final Fantasy are not really lighting up the charts and there is always a long ass wait between main FF games. As we are experiencing now with FFXIII.

And MGS4 will easily beat out Musou 5 sales. Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

It's probably fair to say that these are rough pre-PS3 franchise rankings in Japan:

1. Final Fantasy / DQ
2. Kingdom Hearts / GT / HSG / DW -- yes, they're all around equally popular. DW has more releases and fewer sales per release, but they're all around the same.
3. MGS / Tales high profile / PES / Ridge Racer / Monster Hunter
4. DMC / VF / Yakuza / RE / Tales low profile / very high profile anime licences

You might do some checking and reveal that <x title> beat <y title> but these are pretty good rough rankings.

Yes, but the DW sales is heavily on the decline. If Koei put DW on the Wii do you think it will hit 1mil again? It wouldn't. It wouldn't even go close. The series may have been there but it's not there anymore and unless Koei make drastic changes and improvements to the quality it will never be there again.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

It's probably fair to say that these are rough pre-PS3 franchise rankings in Japan:

1. Final Fantasy / DQ
2. Kingdom Hearts / GT / HSG / DW -- yes, they're all around equally popular. DW has more releases and fewer sales per release, but they're all around the same.
3. MGS / Tales high profile / PES / Ridge Racer / Monster Hunter
4. DMC / VF / Yakuza / RE / Tales low profile / very high profile anime licences

You might do some checking and reveal that <x title> beat <y title> but these are pretty good rough rankings.

I'd put RR down a rank and Yakuza up a rank. The PS2 Ryu Go Gotaku games were slower sellers than you are used to seeing in Japan but each is up in the high 6 figures.

 

[jeremy1456]

The side games for Final Fantasy are not really lighting up the charts and there is always a long ass wait between main FF games. As we are experiencing now with FFXIII.

And MGS4 will easily beat out Musou 5 sales. Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

My question is how many sequels/side games have ALREADY been announced for FFXIII? 5?

If that isn't whoring then I don't know what is.

Yes, but the DW sales is heavily on the decline. If Koei put DW on the Wii do you think it will hit 1mil again? It wouldn't. It wouldn't even go close. The series may have been there but it's not there anymore and unless Koei make drastic changes and improvements to the quality it will never be there again.

I couldn't find the exact Japanese numbers so I'll just rely on worldwide numbers for my next argument. Metal Gear Solid 2 sold around 7 million copies worldwide, and Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't even reach 4 million. If that's not a decline then I don't know what is.

Much in the same way that Musou is declining. The comparions are there and worth making, though, it might be a different story with japan only sales.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

My question is how many sequels/side games have ALREADY been announced for FFXIII? 5?

If that isn't whoring then I don't know what is.

Did you pull that number out of your ass? FFXIII, FF Versus XIII, and FF Agito XIII. How is it any more milking than releasing a new Final Fantasy game in the series every year for 3 years straight?

 

[donny2112]

Looking at Shin Sangoku Musou 4/5 (Dynasty Warriors 5/6), Minna no Golf 4/5, and WE10/11's first three weeks, you find about the following average % that the PS3 game sold of the PS2 game.

1st week: ~30%
2nd week: ~45%
3rd week: ~40%

If you were to apply those same percentages to Gran Turismo 4 to project Gran Turismo 5, you would get the following data for its first three weeks.

PS3 Gran Turismo 5 - 203K / NEW
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 - 73K / 277K
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 - 26K / 303K


Devil May Cry 4 is an interesting case in that Devil May Cry 3 saw a huge downturn for the series as backlash for Devil May Cry 2. Devil May Cry 4 has done a good job in halting/reversing that downturn. Gran Turismo 4 was not a huge downturn for the series, so I don't think hoping for a DMC4-to-DMC3 relative performance makes much sense.

 

[Ceres]

My question is how many sequels/side games have ALREADY been announced for FFXIII? 5?

If that isn't whoring then I don't know what is.



I couldn't find the exact Japanese numbers so I'll just rely on worldwide numbers for my next argument. Metal Gear Solid 2 sold around 7 million copies worldwide, and Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't even reach 4 million. If that's not a decline then I don't know what is.

Much in the same way that Musou is declining. The comparions are there and worth making, though, it might be a different story with japan only sales.

The numbers I found had MGS1 around 780k, MGS2 around 840k, & MGS3 around 850k.
On top of this, they're apparently saying 1 million in japan when no PS3 game has sold above 500k and the franchise has never managed 1 million with far more consoles out there. But then, when you've got no competition with other games, there's no accounting for just how many people will be desperate to play something.

 

[donny2112]

And MGS4 will easily beat out Musou 5 sales. Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

PS1 Metal Gear Solid - 706K
PS2 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty - 798K
PS2 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 820K

PS2 Shin Sangoku Musou 2 - 1.03 million
PS2 Shin Sangoku Musou 3 - 1.20 million
PS2 Shin Sangoku Musou 4 - 918K

You should have some doubt.

Yes, but the DW sales is heavily on the decline.

It's "heavily on the decline" a good part due to being on the PS3. Guess what platform MGS4 will be launching on.

 

[jeremy1456]

Did you pull that number out of your ass? FFXIII, FF Versus XIII, and FF Agito XIII. How is it any more milking than releasing a new Final Fantasy game in the series every year for 3 years straight?

You're right, I guess there are only 3 FFXIII games announced so far but I remember looking at a chart and seeing that Square-Enix was planning at least 2 more. I could be wrong though.

To your second comment I have no idea what you mean. Just the fact that the series is well on it's way to it's 13th installment, all the while the next game already has 2 side games coming out for it when it's still a year off is whoring to me. Of course, that's just my opinion.

Oh and Ceres I guess that I was wrong about MGS.

 

[Lightning]

I couldn't find the exact Japanese numbers so I'll just rely on worldwide numbers for my next argument. Metal Gear Solid 2 sold around 7 million copies worldwide, and Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't even reach 4 million. If that's not a decline then I don't know what is.

Much in the same way that Musou is declining. The comparions are there and worth making, though, it might be a different story with japan only sales.

FFVII sold 9.7mil, FFIX sold only 5.6mil. That's a massive decline until FFX sells 7.9mil...

My point? First game of the generation does not have the competition to contend with. MGS4 will eclipse MGS3 numbers, of that you can be certain. You can add another million of MGS3 Sub as well.

 

[test_account]

You're right, I guess there are only 3 FFXIII games announced so far but I remember looking at a chart and seeing that Square-Enix was planning at least 2 more. I could be wrong though.

To your second comment I have no idea what you mean. Just the fact that the series is well on it's way to it's 13th installment, all the while the next game already has 2 side games coming out for it when it's still a year off is whoring to me. Of course, that's just my opinion.

Oh and Ceres I guess that I was wrong about MGS.

I think 3 for PS3 and 5 total. I guess you mean this chart that shows 5 circles?

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/709/709914p1.html

I'm not quite sure what the circles mean though, if its 5 different games within the FF13 universe or so.

 

[jeremy1456]

FFVII sold 9.7mil, FFIX sold only 5.6mil. That's a massive decline until FFX sells 7.9mil...

My point? First game of the generation does not have the competition to contend with. MGS4 will eclipse MGS3 numbers, of that you can be certain. You can add another million of MGS3 Sub as well.

Musou 5 was the first new one of this generation. You're all over the place here. What about Hot Shots Golf? Did that decline? Or maybe Ratchet and Clank?

In general past series are doing worse on the PS3 than they did on the PS2. I'm under the impression that MGS4 will not escape from this.

 

[Lightning]

You're right, I guess there are only 3 FFXIII games announced so far but I remember looking at a chart and seeing that Square-Enix was planning at least 2 more. I could be wrong though.

Compare FFXII sales to FFXII Relevant Wings for your answer to these Square side games.

 

[jeremy1456]

Compare FFXII sales to FFXII Relevant Wings for your answer to these Square side games.

Also compare the games' budgets.

 

[Lightning]

Kind of like Musou? You're all over the place here.

Musou would not sell on any system. The series is dying, it is being whored to freakin death.

 

[Lightning]

Also compare the games' budgets.

Yeah, compare the budgets of FFXIII to Agito XIII while you are at it.

Point is side games are generally cheap and therefore do not generate the hype, advertising and ending up with substantially less sales.

 

[jeremy1456]

Musou would not sell on any system. The series is dying, it is being whored to freakin death.

The only real evidence we have of the series dying is that the newest game didn't sell on HD consoles, where Japanese series just don't sell as well as they used to (save for Devil May Cry).

 

[jeremy1456]

Yeah, compare the budgets of FFXIII to Agito XIII while you are at it.

Or Versus XIII which you conveniently left out.

 

[Lightning]

Or Versus XIII which you conveniently left out.

Versus XIII is getting a top quality development team and a high budget. That game must sell.

 

[gconsole]

It's probably fair to say that these are rough pre-PS3 franchise rankings in Japan:

1. Final Fantasy / DQ
2. Kingdom Hearts / GT / HSG / DW -- yes, they're all around equally popular. DW has more releases and fewer sales per release, but they're all around the same.
3. MGS / Tales high profile / PES / Ridge Racer / Monster Hunter
4. DMC / VF / Yakuza / RE / Tales low profile / very high profile anime licences

You might do some checking and reveal that <x title> beat <y title> but these are pretty good rough rankings.

Base on current sale trend

1. Final Fantasy / DQ (~ 2 - 3 M)
2. Monster Hunter (~ 1M - 2M)
3. Kingdom Hearts / GT (~700k - 1M)
4. MGS (~500k - 700k) *highly possible to decline to HSG / DW level.
4. RE / Tales high profile / PES / HSG (~400k)
5. DW / DMC / Yakuza / (~250k - 300k)
6. Ridge Racer / Tales low profile (~100k - 200k)

This does not include the old ranking of each game. For example, RE is base on current sale which is around 400k not the old sale like RE2 which was around 2M. For the game which does not release yet in this gen like MGS. I used the potential sale from the last game. There's the possibility that the game will ranking lower if the real number is out when game release.

The only real evidence we have of the series dying is that the newest game didn't sell on HD consoles, where Japanese series just don't sell as well as they used to (save for Devil May Cry).

Every series will be on declining mode some day. And that's happening to HSG and DW. Not mention to low PS3 sale. If the series can maintain itself during this stage then the sale at this point wil be the stable number until there is a chance that the creator can rebound the series back to its glory.

 

[ethelred]

Versus XIII is getting a top quality development team

Wait, I thought the Kingdom Hearts team was making it. Has something changed?

 

[Redd]

Wait, I thought the Kingdom Hearts team was making it. Has something changed?

heh:lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

Base on current sale trend
2. Monster Hunter (~ 1M - 2M)

Monster Hunter != Monster Hunter Portable.

Otherwise, though, your rankings seem to work out alright.

 

[Brak]

Monster Hunter != Monster Hunter Portable.

Otherwise, though, your rankings seem to work out alright.

Not to mention that neither Monster Hunter nor Dragon Quest will be on the PS3, so he might as well remove them from the chart.

 

[ethelred]

Monster Hunter != Monster Hunter Portable.

Otherwise, though, your rankings seem to work out alright.

Both of your lists fail to mention Super Robot Wars. It's a pretty major franchise. Not the biggest fan, but it's hard to ignore its impact in Japan. For instance, it's consistently a larger seller than Tales.

 

[cvxfreak]

Looking at Shin Sangoku Musou 4/5 (Dynasty Warriors 5/6), Minna no Golf 4/5, and WE10/11's first three weeks, you find about the following average % that the PS3 game sold of the PS2 game.

1st week: ~30%
2nd week: ~45%
3rd week: ~40%

Hmm...

PS3 Biohazard 5 - 70,400 / NEW
PS3 Biohazard 5 - 33,800 / 104,200
PS3 Biohazard 5 - 13,600 / 117,800

darthvadernoooooooooooo.jpg

 

[Grecco]

Wait, I thought the Kingdom Hearts team was making it. Has something changed?

Well played. :lol

 

[DevilWillcry]

Wait, I thought the Kingdom Hearts team was making it. Has something changed?

I see what you did there.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Both of your lists fail to mention Super Robot Wars. It's a pretty major franchise. Not the biggest fan, but it's hard to ignore its impact in Japan. For instance, it's consistently a larger seller than Tales.

SRW is pretty staggered in the same way that Tales is as well, with the top sellers selling awesome and the bottom sellers just selling well. It was an omission though, for sure.

 

[donny2112]

Hmm...

PS3 Biohazard 5 - 70,400 / NEW
PS3 Biohazard 5 - 33,800 / 104,200
PS3 Biohazard 5 - 13,600 / 117,800

darthvadernoooooooooooo.jpg

They'll do RE4-2 or RE5:Wii-st Side Story to make up the difference.

 

[Innotech]

They'll do RE4-2 or RE5:Wii-st Side Story to make up the difference.

theyll probably make RE:UC2.

 

[Liabe Brave]

In general past series are doing worse on the PS3 than they did on the PS2.

Of course they are! No home console has ever dominated like the PS2 did. Even the Wii isn't managing it outside Japan. Given the hardware units Sony has sold, software performance is perfectly in line with what you'd expect. DW6 selling 350k on two million machines matches up well with DW4 selling 1.2 million on 12 million machines.

Of course, developers and publishers won't take "But the attach rate's good!" as an excuse, and neither should you. The PS3 has been a financial disaster. But I don't think it's accurate to say it suffers from the PSP syndrome of "no software given the hardware". (For example, PSP has three 500k+ titles on a 7.5 million base, while Gamecube had ten 500k+ titles on a four million base.) Individual PS3 owners buy software just like you'd expect from the brand's history. Unfortunately, the hardware hasn't been anywhere near as attractive to consumers as in the past, so there's far fewer owners out there.

 

[jeremy1456]

Of course they are! No home console has ever dominated like the PS2 did. Even the Wii isn't managing it outside Japan. Given the hardware units Sony has sold, software performance is perfectly in line with what you'd expect. DW6 selling 350k on two million machines matches up well with DW4 selling 1.2 million on 12 million machines.

Of course, developers and publishers won't take "But the attach rate's good!" as an excuse, and neither should you. The PS3 has been a financial disaster. But I don't think it's accurate to say it suffers from the PSP syndrome of "no software given the hardware". (For example, PSP has three 500k+ titles on a 7.5 million base, while Gamecube had ten 500k+ titles on a four million base.) Individual PS3 owners buy software just like you'd expect from the brand's history. Unfortunately, the hardware hasn't been anywhere near as attractive to consumers as in the past, so there's far fewer owners out there.

I completely agree with you - I wasn't directly referring to attach rates.

 

[JJConrad]

More fuel for whoever's fire.

# of games debuting > x by year:

> 100K
         GCN   PS3   WII   PS2
Year 1:    3     0     3    12
Year 2:    6     5     7    18
Year 3:    6     2*    1*   29
Year 4:    3                35
Year 5:    3                34
Year 6:    0                31

There will be no PS2 this generation. :lol

I don't know how fair of a comparison this is. The Gamecube's Year 1 was was two - three months longer than the PS3 and Wii. This gives it an advantage that carries across every year. The PS2 is even worse. It's Year 1 was about 8 months longer, making it closer to the other systems' Year 2 than anything else.

 

[Phife Dawg]

WE was on every system and will be again this year. I fail to see why that counts especially since the PS2 version stole all the sales. And I expect MGS4 to have a much bigger impact than the whored out DW series. GT tops HSG5 so the 2008 lineup as it stands is better.

The series may be whored out but it's still one of the most popular franchises in Japan (for reasons I can't understand). WE PS3 actually did quite respectable. DW had a lot of things going for it: Huge franchise, current gen exclusive, price drop, bundle, new colour, new hardware revision, reintroduction of rumble and all at the end of the year, nearing the biggest shopping season. I expect MGS to do decently but it'll not make the big splash some are hoping for.

GT beating out HSG as a franchise is debatable, like I said, they are on comparable level. After all this is Japan we're talking about. It's of course different for the rest of the world.

And your point was that alone due to GT5 2008's line-up is better and 2007 was shit (from a sales perspective).

And MGS4 will easily beat out Musou 5 sales. Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

Yes, but the DW sales is heavily on the decline. If Koei put DW on the Wii do you think it will hit 1mil again? It wouldn't. It wouldn't even go close. The series may have been there but it's not there anymore and unless Koei make drastic changes and improvements to the quality it will never be there again.

You really think MGS has a shot at selling a million? I think it has a shot at 500-600k, not really beating DW easily.

Koei releasing DW on Wii would make zero sense, the userbase is still on PS2, those that moved on did so with DW PS3. And I don't think it's a quality issue, just look at how PS3 software has been performing - DW is pretty much in line with that.

 

[Lobster]

You really think MGS has a shot at selling a million? I think it has a shot at 500-600k, not really beating DW easily.

Koei releasing DW on Wii would make zero sense, the userbase is still on PS2, those that moved on did so with DW PS3. And I don't think it's a quality issue, just look at how PS3 software has been performing - DW is pretty much in line with that.

If MGS4 was coming out today it wouldn't even reach 600K.

As I understand HSG was a much bigger series and it couldn't even get to 500k? (someone might need to correct me)

I'd say your MGS4 prediction is spot on for the upcoming userbase.

I agree with your second paragraph.

 

[Moor-Angol]

More fuel for whoever's fire.

# of games debuting > x by year:

> 100K
         GCN   PS3   WII   PS2
Year 1:    3     0     3    12
Year 2:    6     5     7    18
Year 3:    6     2*    1*   29
Year 4:    3                35
Year 5:    3                34
Year 6:    0                31

There will be no PS2 this generation. :lol

I don't agree with this chart, donny...

PS2 debut was in march, so "year 1" is 9 months, while "year 1" for Wii is just 30 days on calendar... if we just consider the first 9 months of sales, 6 titles sold more than 100k