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Media Create Sales: July 20-26, 2009

D.Lo

Member
cvxfreak said:
So when was the last time a game's sales potential got so many people tense, anxious and all riled up?
Well this is the first genuine major third party effort of continuing an existing popular series on the runaway leading console of the generation. I find it bizarre I'm saying that, but it's true.

Add to this the series going supernova on a side platform* between the game's announcement and release, and we've got a mystery not seen in some time. Given all their other actions toward the Wii and HD twins, it almost looks like Capcom was throwing the Wii a bone by giving it an entry in one of their lesser PS2 series, but have accidentally given it what is now their #1 property.

*Yes, when looking at sales PSP is clearly the series' main platform now, but as the PSP games are ports and expansions, it's pretty clear they were originally the spin-offs.
 
I don't think portable-home comparisons with Animal Crossing work so well. Animal Crossing has been a veeeery slow game to evolve. Rather than a change from 2G to 3, going from Wild World to City Folk is like going from Animal Crossing 1.6 to Animal Crossing 1.7.

D.Lo said:
Given all their other actions toward the Wii and HD twins, it almost looks like Capcom was throwing the Wii a bone by giving it an entry in one of their lesser PS2 series, but have accidentally given it what is now their #1 property.
It wasn't really one of their lesser series, though. The original Monster Hunter fell behind RE, DMC, and even GTA, but Monster Hunter 2 was their third-best-selling PS2 title; only the first two Onimushas did better.
 

ethelred

Member
D.Lo said:
Well this is the first genuine major third party effort of continuing an existing popular series on the runaway leading console of the generation. I find it bizarre I'm saying that, but it's true.

It might feel bizarre because it isn't true. The event to which you're referring took place a few weeks ago.

D.Lo said:
Add to this the series going supernova on a side platform* between the game's announcement and release...

Monster Hunter's sales spiked way before Monster Hunter 3's move to the Wii was announced. That announcement occurred in October 2007 -- by that point, both Monster Hunter Portable 1 and 2 were already million sellers, and the second had sold around 1.3 million by then. It was already easily Capcom's biggest franchise in Japan. They knew what they were announcing, and the fact that 2G came out and sold another 2.4 million in the subsequent year doesn't dilute that.
 

D.Lo

Member
ethelred said:
It might feel bizarre because it isn't true. The event to which you're referring took place a few weeks ago
Yeah yeah, I said console not handheld, and you knew what I meant. Geez.

ethelred said:
Monster Hunter's sales spiked way before Monster Hunter 3's move to the Wii was announced. That announcement occurred in October 2007 -- by that point, both Monster Hunter Portable 1 and 2 were already million sellers, and the second had sold around 1.3 million by then. It was already easily Capcom's biggest franchise in Japan. They knew what they were announcing, and the fact that 2G came out and sold another 2.4 million in the subsequent year doesn't dilute that.
It was a big move back then, but 2G put the series in FF/DQ/Pokemon territory. It's gone from 'a pretty good success' to being the second biggest series in Japan (except Nintendo 1st party series). Nonetheless, my answer was about why people care about this, and IMO it's the combination of weight and mystery.
 

Road

Member
duckroll said:
Would it really mean fans hated the game? Would that mean fans hated MH, MHG and MH2 too? Or would it just mean that there are far more portable fans of the franchise than console fans? I'm not sure why people EXPECT MH3 to perform like the MHP series at all.

You're right. By my argument fans would buy the game regardless if they hated it or not, since I was talking about the hardcore ones. Haha

What I meant is that a LTD of 900k would be a combination of the lack of good word of mouth, which comes partly from fans (hence why I mentioned it'd because they hated it), and the whole lack of portability (and I understand the latter is seemingly the most important factor).

I'm not sure there's such a thing as portable fans x console fans, but we'll find out soon, I guess.

Edit: I thought I had put this: I don't expect MH3 to quadruple its first week.
 

ethelred

Member
D.Lo said:
Yeah yeah, I said console not handheld, and you knew what I meant. Geez.

Oh, I'm sorry -- you were making the most fundamental misreading of the Japanese market imaginable by breaking consoles down into home consoles and portable consoles and still acting like the former has any sort of primacy while failing to acknowledge the complete reconstruction that market has undergone this generation? Okay. I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt by assuming you'd just woken up from a month-long coma.

D.Lo said:
It was a big move back then, but 2G put the series in FF/DQ/Pokemon territory. It's gone from 'a pretty good success' to being the second biggest series in Japan (except Nintendo 1st party series).

I still can't agree. I'd say that at this point, anything which manages to break through to the 1.5 millionish range has demonstrated an influencing effect on the Japanese market -- it's topped a barrier that precious few games do, it's shown an ability to grab the public's attention and hold it rapt, and it will demonstrate an ability to carry along lesser imitations to sales successes that they otherwise would not have achieved which prompts other developers to begin working on comparable products -- cf: Sega didn't wait for 2G, but rather began creating Phantasy Star Portable after Monster Hunter 2 Portable proved to be a sales giant because they believed it had an impact on the market; this is similar to the glut of RPGs following Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, or the monster collection games following Pokemon, or the training games following Brain Age.

Sure, 2G proved to be an even bigger seller, but its predecessor reshaped the PSP market initially and had already proven itself to be in the upper echelon of Japanese sellers, nevermind the very top of Capcom's own roster of franchises. You're just tossing around a lot of convoluted and inartful explanations to answer CVX's very simple question, the correct answer to which can be summed up as: a lot of people on gaming forums really hate the Wii and have their fingers crossed that a big game on it will tank miserably. They needn't worry; whether it's successful or not, it still won't prompt any other publisher to start taking the machine seriously!
 
ethelred said:
It might feel bizarre because it isn't true. The event to which you're referring took place a few weeks ago.
I take it you refer to DQ IX, but I think it would be a bit of a stretch to say no other third party DS games in the last 4.5 years have been major efforts to continue a popular series.
 

D.Lo

Member
ethelred said:
Oh, I'm sorry -- you were making the most fundamental misreading of the Japanese market imaginable by breaking consoles down into home consoles and portable consoles and still acting like the former has any sort of primacy while failing to acknowledge the complete reconstruction that market has undergone this generation? Okay. I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt by assuming you'd just woken up from a month-long coma.
Do you really need all that sarcasm? You did know what I meant the whole time, I wasn't getting into any dialogue on the Japanese market as a whole, I simply used the term 'runaway leading console' to define the Wii in relation to the other home systems which have received sequels to big franchises, particularly from Capcom (RE, DMC, SF).

ethelred said:
You're just tossing around a lot of convoluted and inartful explanations to answer CVX's very simple question, the correct answer to which can be summed up as: a lot of people on gaming forums really hate the Wii and have their fingers crossed that a big game on it will tank miserably.
Well thanks for telling us all what the 'correct' answer is. I agree that is the reason for some. But I don't hate the Wii, and yet I am still fascinated with MH3 for the reasons I outlined, and I think most in this thread are in thte same boat. It's just a really hard one to pick, because as a release it doesn't fit into any pattern we have seen this or any gen. There's the handheld vs console factor, the 'does it fit the platform' aspect, Wii vs HD, the 3rd parties on Wii, etc.

ethelred said:
They needn't worry; whether it's successful or not, it still won't prompt any other publisher to start taking the machine seriously!
That I'll agree with:D

On another topic, how's this for a measure of success for MH3 - if it becomes the top selling 3rd party home console game of the gen in Japan? Or is that bar too low? :lol
 
If MH3 does incredibly well, I wouldn't mind if Sega tried to relaunch PSO again.

Is Taiko no Tatsujin Wii the highest selling 3rd console game ATM or is MGS4 still #1?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
D.Lo said:
On another topic, how's this for a measure of success for MH3 - if it becomes the top selling 3rd party home console game of the gen in Japan? Or is that bar too low? :lol
I think that Dragon Quest 10 for the Wii will probably sell more than Monster Hunter 3. But MH3 will probably be one of the highest selling 3rd party game for home consoles in Japan though :)


Mr. Pointy said:
If MH3 does incredibly well, I wouldn't mind if Sega tried to relaunch PSO again.

Is Taiko no Tatsujin Wii the highest selling 3rd console game ATM or is MGS4 still #1?
MGS4 should still be the highest selling 3rd party games for home consoles in Japan, with about 690k copies sold. Taiko no Tatsujin is currently around 550k-600k i think? Taiko no Tatsujin might have a chance to outsell MGS4 though.
 

Spiegel

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
I don't think portable-home comparisons with Animal Crossing work so well. Animal Crossing has been a veeeery slow game to evolve. Rather than a change from 2G to 3, going from Wild World to City Folk is like going from Animal Crossing 1.6 to Animal Crossing 1.7.

Yeah, neither does another loved here portable-home comparison, Pokemon

I like when someone says Pokemon only sells that big on handhelds because of the portability and compares the situation with MH. I don't see Pokemon Ranger or Pokemon Mystery Dungeon selling 5 million, does that mean that Pokemon doesn't sell on handhelds?

If the next mainline Pokemon debuted exclusively on Wii and was a true sequel pushing the capabilities of the console with the same kind of promotion that the portable versions get nobody would expect the game to sell worse.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Spiegel said:
Yeah, neither does another loved here portable-home comparison, Pokemon

I like when someone says Pokemon only sells that big on handhelds because of the portability and compares the situation with MH. I don't see Pokemon Ranger or Pokemon Mystery Dungeon selling 5 million, does that mean that Pokemon doesn't sell on handhelds?

If the next mainline Pokemon debuted exclusively on Wii and was a true sequel pushing the capabilities of the console with the same kind of promotion that the portable versions get nobody would expect the game to sell worse.

I would. Easier to get people to buy multiple 35 dollar games than 50 dollar ones.
 

zsidane

Member
SilverLunar said:
Persian not Arabic.

Edit: oh it has been pointed already... well I don't blame you somewhat for the confusion, both languages have the same syllables and pretty similar words.

EDIT2: wait a minute, how come you know Arabic and have no idea about Persian?? even if you don't speak the language it is pretty common to know it .. um exist?? come on...
Don't worry, I know it exists but somehow I...forgot and assumed it's arabic but written by someone who's trying to look "cool" (That's the first tag I've evr seen written in Arabic syllables).

Oh and this...
faridmon said:
the thing is, it looks more Arabic and less than Persian. I can't really explain it but I am an expert the difference is that Persian is written in circulate way, where the Arabic, everything is fitted in a line.
but that's when writing it with hand, so I don't know how computerised typing differ from it.
Guess there's no difference when using a computer to write...

About my MH3 predictions (Since everyone's predicting :D)
First week 650k
Wii 100k
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Spiegel said:
4800Y (Pokemon DS) vs 5800Y (first party Wii game)

Close enough

If you are gonna put Pokemon on a console you have to consider WW sales. Pokemon traditionally sells equal to or greater than Japan in NA and Europe isnt far behind the other two regions.
 

Road

Member
Heck. Let's predict:

MH3 1st week - 620k;
Wii - 88k.

Using the 'pull numbers out of your ass' method of estimation.
 

wrowa

Member
Spiegel said:
If the next mainline Pokemon debuted exclusively on Wii and was a true sequel pushing the capabilities of the console with the same kind of promotion that the portable versions get nobody would expect the game to sell worse.
You forget that one of the key factors of Pokemon's success is the social part of the games - in order to get every monster you have to trade with other people and so on. Although it's possible to trade monsters online it still isn't the same as trade the monsters on the schoolyard, for example. Without this social component Pokemon wouldn't be as successful as it is imo. Just like MH players in Japan seem to prefer playing the game together in one room instead of playing it online.
 

Spiegel

Member
HK-47 said:
If you are gonna put Pokemon on a console you have to consider WW sales. Pokemon traditionally sells equal to or greater than Japan in NA and Europe isnt far behind the other two regions.

That's not the point, the comparisons are always for japanese sales.

People compares:

MH console - 600k vs MH portable - 3.3 million (latest console game released before MH became a sales monster)
=
Pokemon console - <1 million vs Pokemon portable - 5 million+ (spinoffs vs main versions)
=
AC console - 1.3 million vs AC portable - 5 million
(lazy effort vs game well adapted to the handheld)

The point is that none of those comparison makes sense.
 
It should be noted that MH on console is for all intents and purposes an MMO-style game, and as such there are monthly fees and junk that tend to put off some people. Sure you can play 2-player local multiplayer, but you can't do the full 4-player experience without paying a fee.

The 4-player local co-op is a MASSIVE part of MHP's appeal.
 

duckroll

Member
Spiegel said:
MH console - 600k vs MH portable - 3.3 million (latest console game released before MH became a sales monster)

That's not true at all. When Monster Hunter 2 was released on the PS2, Monster Hunter Portable was already out, and it outsold MH2 by like 100k. Then they released a budget version of Monster Hunter Portable and a budget version of Monster Hunter 2. Again, MHP outsold MH2 by 40k.

This is a comparison of Monster Hunter Portable (the PSP version of the first game) with Monster Hunter 2 (the sequel on the PS2). MH2 is clearly the more advanced game, and by the time the budget versions were released, MHP2 was out and MHP2G was coming out. Even when it had to compete with 2 newer versions on the PSP, it STILL outsold MH2. What does that tell you?
 

onken

Member
duckroll said:
I don't think it remains to be seen at all. Anything selling over 500k on consoles this generation is considered fucking strong imo. :p

Oh sure, I'm just trying to give a reality to check to everyone thinking we're going to see MHP numbers here.
 
Late prediction here, but what the heck.

1st week - 850K.

2.5 million ltd.

The hype seems surreal over there.

Edit: Oh, and Wii: 100K first week.
 
D.Lo said:
On another topic, how's this for a measure of success for MH3 - if it becomes the top selling 3rd party home console game of the gen in Japan? Or is that bar too low? :lol
180px-Limbo.jpg
 

Spiegel

Member
duckroll said:
That's not true at all. When Monster Hunter 2 was released on the PS2, Monster Hunter Portable was already out, and it outsold MH2 by like 100k. Then they released a budget version of Monster Hunter Portable and a budget version of Monster Hunter 2. Again, MHP outsold MH2 by 40k.

This is a comparison of Monster Hunter Portable (the PSP version of the first game) with Monster Hunter 2 (the sequel on the PS2). MH2 is clearly the more advanced game, and by the time the budget versions were released, MHP2 was out and MHP2G was coming out. Even when it had to compete with 2 newer versions on the PSP, it STILL outsold MH2. What does that tell you?

What does that tell me?
That the state of the MH franchise in 2007 is not comparable with the state of the MH franchise in 2008 or 2009.

Why didn't the best version of MH2 sell 1 million+?
Because the hype machine was behind MHP2

Why didn't MHP2 sell 3 million?
Because the MH franchise has been growing with each version

MH3 has something that none of the previous games (on console or handheld) have had:
The MH franchise is now DQ big and the next big thing for that franchise is exclusive for the Wii. MHP2G was released 18 months ago and it's old news now.


Am I expecting MH3 to sell 3 million? Probably not, but the pre-launch marketing and the launch hype has been as big as you can expect and the MH franchise is probably the hottest property in Japan right now.
 

duckroll

Member
Spiegel said:
What does that tell me?
That the state of the MH franchise in 2007 is not comparable with the state of the MH franchise in 2008 or 2009.

Why didn't the best version of MH2 sell 1 million+?
Because the hype machine was behind MHP2

Why didn't MHP2 sell 3 million?
Because the MH franchise has been growing with each version

MH3 has something that none of the previous games (on console or handheld) have had:
The MH franchise is now DQ big and the next big thing for that franchise is exclusive for the Wii. MHP2G was released 18 months ago and it's old news now.


Am I expecting MH3 to sell 3 million? Probably not, but the pre-launch marketing and the launch hype has been as big as you can expect and the MH franchise is probably the hottest property in Japan right now.

You're ignoring the points I actually highlighted.

Why didn't MH2 sell more than MHP?

Why didn't MH2 The Best sell more than MHP2 The Best?
 

Busaiku

Member
The Monster Hunter 2 Best release also sold less than the Monster Hunter Portable (the first) The Best Reprint (second repriced release).
 
duckroll said:
It seems as if "bomba" is used for just about anything these days which isn't at the optimum level of success. Lulz.

When I signed up for GAF, "bomba" meant only a game that had failed so severely that its price was rapidly slashed and it could be purchased at a severe discount, i.e. what we now refer to as a "price collapse."

The way people use it now is pretty much useless. A "bomba" performance for MH3 would be, like, 200k. :lol

duckroll said:
I don't think it remains to be seen at all. Anything selling over 500k on consoles this generation is considered fucking strong imo. :p

Given that only 15 console titles have sold over 500k this generation and 13 of those are published by Nintendo, I'd say yeah, pretty fucking strong. :lol

(And to dive recklessly back into the fray of that argument regarding how people could be said to "give a shit" about PSP but not Wii, it's probably because PSP has seven third-party titles over 500k, every one of which outsold Wii's best 3rd party game, and it clearly still holds the promise of more down the road -- making it officially the second-best choice for A through AAA titles in Japan.)

Road said:
What I meant is that a LTD of 900k would be a combination of the lack of good word of mouth

An LTD of 900k would say way more about the relative importance of mobile coop play than it did about the quality of the game itself. I honestly don't think word of mouth is even relevant for a launch this big.

JoshuaJSlone said:
I take it you refer to DQ IX, but I think it would be a bit of a stretch to say no other third party DS games in the last 4.5 years have been major efforts to continue a popular series.

I'm actually pretty certan that DQIX is the first attempt to move a main entry of a blockbuster franchise directly from the previous market leading system (PS2) to the current market leading system (DS).

D.Lo said:
On another topic, how's this for a measure of success for MH3 - if it becomes the top selling 3rd party home console game of the gen in Japan? Or is that bar too low? :lol

That's like setting the bar for Usain Bolt in 2012 as "qualify for the Olympics."

Spiegel said:
If the next mainline Pokemon debuted exclusively on Wii and was a true sequel pushing the capabilities of the console with the same kind of promotion that the portable versions get nobody would expect the game to sell worse.

It would sell far worse. For children, the difference between handhelds (which are going to be seen as the children's "property," carried with them everywhere, and used without explicit parental permission) and consoles (which will be hooked to a family TV, probably shared with siblings, and often tightly monitored) is huge, even forgetting the higher cost and the loss of the ability for kids to easily trade in person.
 

Spiegel

Member
duckroll said:
You're ignoring the points I actually highlighted.

Why didn't MH2 sell more than MHP?

Why didn't MH2 The Best sell more than MHP2 The Best?

What's your point?
I'm acknowledging that MHP sells better than MHC and that I don't expect MH3 to sell 3 million.

I'm just saying that we haven't had a full new MH since the franchise became a 3 million selling one or even a 1.5 million selling one.
This thing is big, even Capcom knows that and has shipped more copies day one than any other (portable or console) MH launch.

Console or handheld, having the exclusive of the next main installment of the MH franchise means much much much more now than 2 years ago.

Near said:
Lets not go that far. At least not yet. :p

How so?

Iirc MHP2g has sold better than 6 DQ games and deppending on how it holds after the launch of MH3 it will sell better than any third party game on the ps2
 
Dragona Akehi said:
Spiegel only sees one thing: PSP.
I want to see the Wii do 99k just so that we have can have a bunch of pictures of michan eating a hat. I'd suggest cutting it into pieces and making hat fried rice.
 

wrowa

Member
Spiegel said:
Dragon Quest games are selling unbelievable great since 20 years and regardless on which plattform the games are on.

Monster Hunter games are selling unbelievable great since 2 1/2 years and so far the huge success is limited on one plattform.
 

Spiegel

Member
:lol
Okay

I deleted a sentence saying that is my main gaming platform so that was implicit there.

As a true gaffer I don't play too many games.
 

SovanJedi

provides useful feedback
Dragona Akehi said:
Might I suggest:

8187.jpg

That is amazing... but if you eat too much of the crust off won't the wonderful beany filling overflow and scold your face? I can't imagine having a pile of piping hot baked beans on your head is going to make you feel good either.

I want the recipe! :eek:
 
SovanJedi said:
That is amazing... but if you eat too much of the crust off won't the wonderful beany filling overflow and scold your face? I can't imagine having a pile of piping hot baked beans on your head is going to make you feel good either.

I want the recipe! :eek:

that's salsa dude.
 

jay

Member
ethelred said:
Oh, I'm sorry -- you were making the most fundamental misreading of the Japanese market imaginable by breaking consoles down into home consoles and portable consoles and still acting like the former has any sort of primacy while failing to acknowledge the complete reconstruction that market has undergone this generation? Okay. I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt by assuming you'd just woken up from a month-long coma.

So any time someone mentions a console in Japan they must now add "I mention this despite acknowledging that consoles do not have any sort of primacy as there has been a complete reconstruction of the market this past generation"? Seems like sales charts would get pretty messy.
 

ethelred

Member
jay said:
So any time someone mentions a console in Japan they must now add "I mention this despite acknowledging that consoles do not have any sort of primacy as there has been a complete reconstruction of the market this past generation"? Seems like sales charts would get pretty messy.

No, but anytime someone describes the Wii as "the runaway leading console of the generation" they're doing the reader a rather severe disservice, as its success in Japan isn't so fitting of that level of hyperbole. The developmentally disabled kid in the Special Olympics has a good chance of beating out two amputees, but let's not start talking about him like he's going to bring home the Gold Medal come London.
 
Remember guys, Capcom is probably going to release Monster Hunter 3G on the Wii as well. So we might be going through all of this again some time next year.
 

donny2112

Member
Spiegel said:
If the next mainline Pokemon debuted exclusively on Wii and was a true sequel pushing the capabilities of the console with the same kind of promotion that the portable versions get nobody would expect the game to sell worse.

*raises hand*

I would.
 
jay said:
So any time someone mentions a console in Japan they must now add "I mention this despite acknowledging that consoles do not have any sort of primacy as there has been a complete reconstruction of the market this past generation"? Seems like sales charts would get pretty messy.

No, just every time they use the word "console" with the implicit meaning of "the actually important systems" when what the word actually means now is "the 3rd through 5th place systems that have no third-party hits."
 
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