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[Mpl90]

3.9 millions in Japan.
So, we have DQM:TW3D and DQX.
The first one will be with no doubt a million seller. The second one...we'll see.
Now, what other games, aside Bravely Default ( if it takes off...a giant if ) could guarantee respecting such a forecast?
What's their Japanese lineup right now?

 

[slaughterking]

Final Fantasy X HD. That's it from what we know (aside from low-tier stuff like Tomb Raider and Hitman).

 

[muu]

got a chuckle out of seeing MILLION arthur selling only 300K.

 

[NeonZ]

Doubt they wanted everyone to be loading up on the super-special weapons for StreetPass fun-play.

According to some reports I've read on Fire Emblem forums, the pre-made Spotpass teams that you can face (or hire) in a similar way to the Streetpass ones can have some pretty hard battles - like how the Sigurd Spotpass apparently is stronger than the enemies in the final chapter. So, the possibility of fighting against broken Streetpass teams probably wasn't unexpected. Even without the Money and Exp DLC chapters, the cahnce of someone just spending a lot of time grinding to make broken teams in the lower difficulties was always there.

 

[Celine]

3.9 millions in Japan.
So, we have DQM:TW3D and DQX.
The first one will be with no doubt a million seller. The second one...we'll see.
Now, what other games, aside Bravely Default ( if it takes off...a giant if ) could guarantee respecting such a forecast?
What's their Japanese lineup right now?

Maybe Versus ?
Doubt it will sell much better than XIII-2.

 

[Nekki]

Predictions!

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 85000
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 45000
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 143000
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 200000

 

[Kandinsky]

Predictions

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 87.000
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 43.000
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 112.000
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 284.000

 

[electroplankton]

3.9 millions in Japan.
So, we have DQM:TW3D and DQX.
The first one will be with no doubt a million seller. The second one...we'll see.
Now, what other games, aside Bravely Default ( if it takes off...a giant if ) could guarantee respecting such a forecast?
What's their Japanese lineup right now?

DQX: a million should be a lock; previous mainline entries did 4mln on average... There will be a drop but it's unlikely less than a quarter of the core fanbase will skip just because of its MMORPG nature.
DQM-TW3D: I'm not sure about the million units, but it could easily sell around 700-800k.
BD: I put this around 200-250k.

Other games we know they will likely be released in FY12 are: FFXHD (which might be a 500k seller, it depends on whether it'll be a straight HD port or something more); COD:BO2 (this a 300k seller given MW3 sales); Versus XIII (well... Million seller?); Gyrozetter (the cross-project arcade/3DS/anime).

Then, there are games that are still not announced but they might pop out before March 2013: KH3D+ (Nomura said there won't be a Final Mix but I can totally see a January 2013 release); DQVIIIr (this should be a million seller for sure); TWEWY2.

 

[Stumpokapow]

DQX: a million should be a lock; previous mainline entries did 4mln on average... There will be a drop but it's unlikely less than a quarter of the core fanbase will skip just because of its MMORPG nature.

FFXI did 0.15 million on its first release (around a 94% drop from FFX). If you calculate the average including FFIX the drop is slightly less harsh, but if you include VIII and VII it seems even more so.

 

[Khrno]

FFXI did 0.15 million on its first release (around a 94% drop from FFX). If you calculate the average including FFIX the drop is slightly less harsh, but if you include VIII and VII it seems even more so.

I believe DQX won't have such an steep drop compared to the average main games (obviously higher to IX than to VIII). I don't think DQX requiring an SD card for Wii will present the same problem as it was with the PS2 HDD 10 years ago.

 

[electroplankton]

FFXI did 0.15 million on its first release (around a 94% drop from FFX). If you calculate the average including FFIX the drop is slightly less harsh, but if you include VIII and VII it seems even more so.

This is true.
But it is also true that, compared to Final Fantasy (even in late-90s / early-00s), Dragon Quest is a much bigger franchise, that sold on average around 4 million with previous entries, and is able to reach the million seller status with spin-offs (the Monsters series) and remakes (all remakes on DS sold over 1 million units). Furthermore, Final Fantasy XI was released less than one year after Final Fantasy X, like it was more a side-project, a temporary deviation from the traditional path; it was presented along with IX and X, as a third experience after the last PS1 entry and the first PS2 chapter. Dragon Quest X will be released exactly after 3 years from Dragon Quest IX, and it is pushed as the next mainline entry, probably more than Squaresoft did with Final Fantasy XI.

I can see a drop, but I can also see a more contained hemorrhage of video gamers with respect to Final Fantasy XI.

 

[nincompoop]

It does seem a bit misguided to release DQX as an MMO for the Wii this late in the system's life. A successful MMO requires an evergreen player base that will continue to grow for a long time after the initial launch, something which doesn't seem likely to occur on a dying platform such as the Wii. Not to mention that the Wii hardware isn't very well equipped to handle an MMO in the first place. They should have just scrapped the Wii version and focused all of their efforts on getting the next-gen version ready as soon as possible once it became apparent that Wii sales were slowing down in Japan.

 

[Khrno]

I can see a drop, but I can also see a more contained hemorrhage of video gamers with respect to Final Fantasy XI.

Sorry, I don't understand this bit. By hemorrhage of video gamers, do you mean people that stopped playing FFXI? Because the player base was actually maintained for the best part of 5 years when it reached its peak in late 2007 - early 2008, and then it started its decline. The Japanese community was the most stable of the 3 regions, with a higher movement of players (leaving and joining) from NA and EU.

The strength of DQX to maintain its player base will rely on the game itself. If the players find the game compelling enough (and the following content updates) to keep playing for a long time is still to be seen, or it could be subject to a loss of players like SWTOR is suffering right now, although with a respectable amount of subscribers (1.2M) they have lost 30% of the initial subscribers in January/February.

It does seem a bit misguided to release DQX as an MMO for the Wii this late in the system's life. A successful MMO requires an evergreen player base that will continue to grow for a long time after the initial launch, something which doesn't seem likely to occur on a dying platform such as the Wii. Not to mention that the Wii hardware isn't very well equipped to handle an MMO in the first place. They should have just scrapped the Wii version and focused all of their efforts on getting the next-gen version ready as soon as possible once it became apparent that Wii sales were slowing down in Japan.

I agree that the Wii wasn't the best choice, power-wise, and although the platform has been dying slowly for the past 3 years, it has shown how capable it is to sell big games. You also seem to forget that the Wii isn't the only platform where the game will be released, since it'll also be played on the Wii U, might not be available right out at launch, but that version shouldn't take longer than next year, and so the game will benefit from the existing Wii user-base, and the new growing Wii U user-base.

It'll still be technically tied down to Wii hardware, and the old "PS2 limitations" could turn into "Wii limitations". Maybe the Wii U version will have some sort of graphical update, maybe they have learned something from FFXIV and FFXI, or maybe they haven't. Either way, we still don't know how or what kind of features does the Wii U version have.

 

[electroplankton]

It does seem a bit misguided to release DQX as an MMO for the Wii this late in the system's life. A successful MMO requires an evergreen player base that will continue to grow for a long time after the initial launch, something which doesn't seem likely to occur on a dying platform such as the Wii. Not to mention that the Wii hardware isn't very well equipped to handle an MMO in the first place. They should have just scrapped the Wii version and focused all of their efforts on getting the next-gen version ready as soon as possible once it became apparent that Wii sales were slowing down in Japan.

That's why it will also be released on Wii U, and it seems it will before March 2013.

Sorry, I don't understand this bit. By hemorrhage of video gamers, do you mean people that stopped playing FFXI? Because the player base was actually maintained for the best part of 5 years when it reached its peak in late 2007 - early 2008, and then it started its decline. The Japanese community was the most stable of the 3 regions, with a higher movement of players (leaving and joining) from NA and EU.

The strength of DQX to maintain its player base will rely on the game itself. If the players find the game compelling enough (and the following content updates) to keep playing for a long time is still to be seen, or it could be subject to a loss of players like SWTOR is suffering right now, although with a respectable amount of subscribers (1.2M) they have lost 30% of the initial subscribers in January/February.

I meant the hemorrhage from the traditional userbase purchasing mainline entries. Final Fantasy went from 2.7mln of X to 150k of XI; I can see Dragon Quest going from 4.3mln of IX to at least 1mln of X.

 

[nincompoop]

That's why it will also be released on Wii U, and it seems it will before March 2013.

The development of the Wii U version still had to be held up by the Wii version's development, both in terms of when it will be ready and in what content it contains. I'm not convinced that the Wii version will be successful enough to justify spending so much time on that version instead of just making a full-blown next gen game.

 

[Khrno]

I meant the hemorrhage from the traditional userbase purchasing mainline entries. Final Fantasy went from 2.7mln of X to 150k of XI; I can see Dragon Quest going from 4.3mln of IX to at least 1mln of X.

Right, but the reason that happened is not just because of XI being an MMO, it was a mix of factors: high price of entry with the PS2 HDD required, online connection, franchise fatigue being the fourth main game in 4 years.

But I do agree that the 1M mark wouldn't be too far fetched, since the price of entry is no where as high as with FFXI and there's no signs of franchise fatigue at all.

 

[roddur]

Prediction

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 90000
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 49000
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 130000
05/24 2 weeks [PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 170000

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I'm thinking like 500k for DQX Wii. Wii U we'll have to see.

 

[Khrno]

The development of the Wii U version still had to be held up by the Wii version's development, both in terms of when it will be ready and in what content it contains. I'm not convinced that the Wii version will be successful enough to justify spending so much time on that version instead of just making a full-blown next gen game.

Having a FFXI level of success, could keep SE a float for the next 5 years while they keep throwing money at Nomura and Tanaka to make vaporware and disastrous online games.

 

[Zee-Row]

Vita numbers make me angry , I wish more people would buy it.

 

[muu]

FFXI did 0.15 million on its first release (around a 94% drop from FFX). If you calculate the average including FFIX the drop is slightly less harsh, but if you include VIII and VII it seems even more so.

FF11 required BB units to be mail-ordered which cost nearly 20K yen by itself. People scoff at those numbers but it's incredible considering the huge mental and monetary hurdle that was imposed here in addition to it being a MMO (back then, and likely even now there's more of an affinity to purchase from Brick and Mortar stores). The only thing required this time around is a USB key, and there's limited editions with that included as well. The decision to not have a 'BT keyboard included!' pack is probably intentional, as this too would add to mental hurdles for purchase.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

FF11 required BB units to be mail-ordered which cost nearly 20K yen by itself. People scoff at those numbers but it's incredible considering the huge mental and monetary hurdle that was imposed here in addition to it being a MMO (back then, and likely even now there's more of an affinity to purchase from Brick and Mortar stores). The only thing required this time around is a USB key, and there's limited editions with that included as well. The decision to not have a 'BT keyboard included!' pack is probably intentional, as this too would add to mental hurdles for purchase.

Not only that but launch PS2s didn't have HDD bays so a lot of gamers had to have a special external HDD if they wanted to play.

 

[Chris1964]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

 

[electroplankton]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

Wow, that's incredible.
Pokémon B/W set a record by a large margin (the second one is FFVIII at 2.5mln, with two more days and B/W was able to open at 2,6mln). I guess B2/W2 might open at 2.2-2.3? That would be above my expectations, since I was thinking a debut more in line with HG/SS (around 1.4mln).

 

[jman2050]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

Makes you wonder why Nintendo didn't do something like this sooner.

 

[lowhighkang_LHK]

Devil May Cry HD Collection <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.03.22} (¥4.990)

Good to see it still holding on.

 

[extralite]

It's a subscrption based MMORPG, I'd hope they would project significantly less than the usual ~4m that DQ manages.

You can play it entirely without paying the subscription fee. They'll have kid's hours where you can play for free (and they're only asking consumers to respect that it's intended for kids).

I think this is a really smart move as they don't inhibit sales in the younger segment (obviously important) and people (ab)using this will still start to consider paying the fee as they can play outside the crowded hours (which will impact the server performance probably).

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Capcom Q&Z
http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/explanation.html

What are the major titles that will contribute to your DLC sales plan of 3.5 billion yen in the current fiscal year?
Our basic stance is to use DLC for major titles, but we cannot name any specific titles at this time. Furthermore, we will also continue to introduce as DLC the titles that we launched in prior years.

What is your view of the performance of “Monster Hunter 3 (Tri) G”?
Sales volume of this title has surpassed our initial plan. Furthermore, this title has created a new community in the Nintendo 3DS market, a development that is extremely beneficial for the Monster Hunter series. We therefore believe that this title has been at reasonable success level.

How do you assess the performance of titles that were introduced in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year?
Sales of "Street Fighter X Tekken" have fallen short of our plan. We believe one of causes is cannibalism because of the large number of other games in this genre that were launched within a short time. "Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City" has reached shipments of 2 million units (as of May 10, 2012). This shows the success of our decision to try the new approach of using an alliance with an overseas development company.

 

[frankie_baby]

Capcom Q&Z
http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/explanation.html

Suceess of the collaboration or scorching the earth for re6? Only time will tell

 

[mclem]

Vita numbers make me angry , I wish more people would buy it.

I wish more people had a reason to buy it.

 

[electroplankton]

No words on Revelations, uh?

Btw, MH3G succeeded: they shipped 1/3 more than the initial plan.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

No words on Revelations, uh?

Btw, MH3G succeeded: they shipped 1/3 more than the initial plan.

No, but it should be close to 500k sold and 600k shipped. We know Capcom didn't flood the market with copies.

 

[grimshawish]

Vita numbers make me angry , I wish more people would buy it.

I'll be honest. Vita sales do annoy me, but I suspect for different reasons from you.
It is still selling - just poorly. Yet lets be honest - the cost is not going to really be made up by a successive out pouring of games over many months.

Remember all the talk of the 3DS drought? Quite frankly Vita is looking a bit worse; and longer.

Fact is that unless Sony really change what their doing atm; the current Vita owners are going to get burned.
I don't say this lightly or to troll; I bought the 3DS on launch, and fortunately there was enough games to keep me going - but I did worry about the sales having an effect on the games. Nintendo had a plan for games ofc (so I wasn't 'that' worried) and also cut the price.

Sony have brought a product to the market with no actual plan (seriously theres none); and just hoped the market would make it a success itself. Its a ridiculous idea - in the end its the Vita owners who are suffering, they took the financial cost of 'making Vita a success' but Sony have done bugger all.

Why are people currently buying Vita? Because they trust Sony to have a release plan. They don't.

So yes Vita numbers make me angry. They make me angry at Sony.
For bringing out a repeat of the PSP that costs too much (seriously all those added features were just bolted on - fuck the special screen and fuck the back touch pad - it adds too much cost Sony - did you even have meetings/discussions about this?!) and has learnt no lessons from the PSP's problems. Nor has it taken into account the importance of the Japanese market and the fact that Japanese developers liked the PSP cause it wasn't HD costs to develop for. Whilst Sony have also made little attempt to get third party support elsewhere except some 'nodding executives' who would only be porting (Seriously this tripe about COD on Vita selling systems is very funny; did people learn nothing last gen?) if they did support it.


Its a fucking mess. Its Sony's mess. They do not function as a company should; their decision making process is obviously all kinds of fucked up with little appraisal or strategy. What should have been a good system is let down by bad management.

Well done Sony!

 

[LOCK]

No words on Revelations, uh?

Btw, MH3G succeeded: they shipped 1/3 more than the initial plan.

And that success is only "reasonable," good lord this company irritates me sometimes.

 

[mclem]

Sony have brought a product to the market with no actual plan (seriously theres none); and just hoped the market would make it a success itself. Its a ridiculous idea - in the end its the Vita owners who are suffering, they took the financial cost of 'making Vita a success' but Sony have done bugger all.

Why are people currently buying Vita? Because they trust Sony to have a release plan. They don't.

While I agree to *some* extent, it's worth mentioning that we're coming up to Sony's single best opportunity to turn it around; E3. I wouldn't say that they don't have a release plan until after we've seen what they're showing there.

(That said, that doesn't necessarily help Japan. They're in a bit of a bind there; do they show stuff for Japan at E3, where it's not particularly suited, or do they wait for TGS, which is still a long way off?)

 

[Exterminieren]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

Bloody hell.

 

[Dash Kappei]

I didn't know TR was postponed. Maybe they'll fix Lara's porno climaxing lines now!

 

[SmokyDave]

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 67.890

Ah, that moment when you realise you opened a Japanese sales thread by accident.

 

[Truth101]

You can play it entirely without paying the subscription fee. They'll have kid's hours where you can play for free (and they're only asking consumers to respect that it's intended for kids).

I think this is a really smart move as they don't inhibit sales in the younger segment (obviously important) and people (ab)using this will still start to consider paying the fee as they can play outside the crowded hours (which will impact the server performance probably).

I didn`t know they were doing this. Thanks for letting us know.

 

[Man God]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

It is going to move so many 3DS's.

Nintendo really needs to make an awesome collectors bundle for Eur and America though or else they'll just sell a ton of closeout DSi's.

 

[Delio]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

Very Nice

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That's why it will also be released on Wii U, and it seems it will before March 2013.

Yes, but the Wii version will continue to set limitations, as PS2 did for FF XI. Not making Wii U the baseline might make more sense in the long run if DQX ever does show up on other sub-WiiU platforms like 3DS.

 

[BurntPork]

azalyn expects an opening for B2/W2 similar to B/W. Preorders at retailers look strong so far.

And this is why Pokemon is one of the most powerful IPs in gaming history.

 

[extralite]

I didn`t know they were doing this. Thanks for letting us know.

It was revealed together with the pricing of 1 to 3 months worth of subscriptions.

Anyway, there's basically no hurdle left to keep DQ from achieving similar success to previous entries. Some people still aren't online at all with their Wii and Nintendo has tried really hard to change that with the ambassador program. DQX will be much more efficient in achieving this goal though which I think is why they're pushing it as a MMO.

A customer can't ever download anything from the online shop if they're not yet online. DQX will benefit the VC and WiiWare also. Even more on the Wii U of course.

Horii would have wanted the series to go MMO at one point anyway since DQ was always supposed to introduce RPGs to a Japanese audience and MMORPGs are a natural evolution. SE know how much money they make. Nintendo needs a stronger online presence in Japan. Everybody wins.

 

[saichi]

And this is why Pokemon is one of the most powerful IPs in gaming history.

People would call it a bad move cause it only sells a little over 5 million in Japan like Ruby/Sapphire.

 

[Road]

Predictions:

[3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 99,999
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 166,666
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 66,666
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 44,444

 

[matmanx1]

Sony have brought a product to the market with no actual plan (seriously theres none); and just hoped the market would make it a success itself. Its a ridiculous idea - in the end its the Vita owners who are suffering, they took the financial cost of 'making Vita a success' but Sony have done bugger all.

So you are privy to Sony's internal plans are you? I'd like to see the document or hear the quote that shows that Sony has no plan in regards to the Vita because taken at face value that's a highly ridiculous statement.

I'm a Vita owner and I'm quite pleased with it. I've already played through Uncharted and Unit 13 and enjoyed both of them greatly and I've played but have yet to finish Wipeout 2048, Disgaea 3, Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus and Dynasty Warriors Next. It's ergonomically the best handheld I've ever owned and the gameplay experiences I've had with just the launch titles have pretty much moved me completely off of my PS3 in terms of gametime. I assure you, there's no suffering going on with this Vita owner.

Perhaps if we all had magic crystal balls and could make dreams come true we could craft a perfect launch year for the Vita that included everything that every fan would want out of the platform but because we don't (and neither does Sony) sometimes you just have to go with the best you have at the least offensive time.

 

[MasterSheen]

[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 75k
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 34k
[3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 115k
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 180k

 

[BishopLamont]

So you are privy to Sony's internal plans are you? I'd like to see the document or hear the quote that shows that Sony has no plan in regards to the Vita because taken at face value that's a highly ridiculous statement.

I'm a Vita owner and I'm quite pleased with it. I've already played through Uncharted and Unit 13 and enjoyed both of them greatly and I've played but have yet to finish Wipeout 2048, Disgaea 3, Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus and Dynasty Warriors Next. It's ergonomically the best handheld I've ever owned and the gameplay experiences I've had with just the launch titles have pretty much moved me completely off of my PS3 in terms of gametime. I assure you, there's no suffering going on with this Vita owner.

Perhaps if we all had magic crystal balls and could make dreams come true we could craft a perfect launch year for the Vita that included everything that every fan would want out of the platform but because we don't (and neither does Sony) sometimes you just have to go with the best you have at the least offensive time.

Nothing being announced since the Vita has arrived shows Sony has no plans.

Well unless you think making a handheld powerful to outlast your competition and everything will fall into place for you is a plan.

 

[The_lascar]

Prediction

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 65 000
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 45 000
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 180 000
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 150 000