Mr. Pointy
Member
I'm hoping Bomberman cracks 300k lifetime, but that's pretty much a pipedream.
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I hope so. Octopath looks neat, but I really want to see a Bravely game with that same art style on a 720p screen.
Sort of comparison across time and space: Amazon.co.jp charts at 20:00 JPT in consoles' pre-orders debut day.
First sight "en-masse" of consoles, games and accessories in top 100
Nintendo 3DS - games only on January 15th, 2011, 00:00 AM | games + consoles on January 20th, 2011, 11:00 AM
PlayStation Vita - games and consoles on October 15th, 2011, 02:00 AM
Wii U - games on October 6th, 2012, 03:00 AM | also consoles on October 6th, 2012, 10:00 AM
PS4 - games and consoles on October 5th, 2013, 02:00 PM
Nintendo Switch - games and consoles on January 21st, 2017, 01:00 PM
Nintendo 3DS - debut day | games only
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11011520&cat=videogames
Nintendo 3DS - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11012020&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 21
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 10
PlayStation Vita - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11101520&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 30
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 18
Wii U - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=12100610&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 7
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 3
PS4 - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=12100610&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 11
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 1
Nintendo Switch - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=17012120&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 34
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 19
First sight "en-masse" of consoles, games and accessories in top 100
Nintendo 3DS - games only on January 15th, 2011, 00:00 AM | games + consoles on January 20th, 2011, 11:00 AM
PlayStation Vita - games and consoles on October 15th, 2011, 02:00 AM
Wii U - games on October 6th, 2012, 03:00 AM | also consoles on October 6th, 2012, 10:00 AM
PS4 - games and consoles on October 5th, 2013, 02:00 PM
Nintendo Switch - games and consoles on January 21st, 2017, 01:00 PM
Nintendo 3DS - debut day | games only
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11011520&cat=videogames
Nintendo 3DS - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11012020&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 21
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 10
PlayStation Vita - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11101520&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 30
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 18
Wii U - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=12100610&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 7
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 3
PS4 - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=12100610&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 11
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 1
Nintendo Switch - debut day | games + consoles
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=17012120&cat=videogames
Total items in top 100 - 34
Total number of accessories (consoles excluded) in top 100 - 19
I know you're kidding but it makes no sense at all for Nintendo not to print 2 million copies. The attach ratio with that launch lineup has got to be as close to 1:1 as it gets.
It seems u had high hope on Zelda there Chris. If i may ask here, how much do you think Zelda can do there? Do you think it can beat OOT 3DS number there?
Well I was thinking of something like that at first, but it seems very low for DQH.
Looking at Wii U launch, there were 310k Wii U sold and ~400k software.
I think it's a good comparison for Switch, imo it should be slightly higher on both front (let's say 350k hardware and 450k software)
With that in mind Zelda will be much higher than NSMB U, because it's a more attractive product and there's not something like MHU to propose another compelling software at launch.
1 2 Switch is cleary positionned the same way Nintendo Land was, however it's harder to sell considering what it is but I kinda think Nintendo will be able to do something on that front so selling in the same ballpark as Nintendo Land (72k) wouldn't be that surprising.
Bomberman is the defacto big exclusive third party exclusive at launch, but it's not that big, it's also an IP which didn't have an entry on console for a long time however the emphasis on multiplayer is a plus and so is the fact it's the cheaper retail title, its competition is with 1 2 Switch on being the "second game people buy at launch".
Taking all that into account it's harder to predict but 50k wouldn't be that huge also because...
Dragon Quest Heroes is the title after, while being expensive and a late port if marketed well Squix can show it's also the whole package of the two games + all dlc + exclusive content, it's also still Dragon Quest which is a strong IP so 20k would be really really low imo, 40k seems more reasonable, which would leave us with 50k for Bomberman
250k >>> 70k > 50k > 40k > <20k
410k for the top 4, and 40k for what's left seems to fit imo, Koei Tecmo's games will be 5k sellers, Setsuna and Disgaea <10k and Puyo <20k
Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power Up Kit
I Am Setsuna
Puyo Puyo Tetris S
Disgaea 5
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 13.
With digital being stronger retail numbers could be slightly lower overall though.
Wii U didn't sell that much of software and 3DS was even worse. Zelda doesn't have competition and unless we see Wii level attach ratio with Switch it will take the air from everything else.
Next weeks after launch most third party games for Wii U showed strong legs. Maybe it was because retailers dropped the price for them since they had low sell-through but we could have a similar situation. I wouldn't expect anything spectacular outside Zelda at first week.
Thanks for the info, for Switch I think we should be looking at something closer to Wii U than 3DS, you can reduce each number I gave by 10% but the analysis itself still stands I think.
What was Wii level attach ratio btw?
What a beast
I think that the additional wiimote with wii party had a role?
Not doing the same with 1 2 switch is such a mistake
thestopsign
Member
Well launching with multiple appealing titles was what really had a role. Wario Ware was there at launch along with Zelda TP, Wii Sports, and Wii Play (with the remote, you are right).
I don't think that will happen. I think 100k would be a huge success for it.
About what I expect as well.
Fate/Grand Order for PSVR announced https://www.jp.playstation.com/blog/detail/4425/20170121-fatego.html
Coming in 2017, could be a big game for PSVR... well at least it's something.
Bomberman is actually a well fit for the Switch concept (which seems to target specifically former/retro gamers and focus on local multiplayer anywhere).
The price is indeed puzzling though.
Bomberman + The best version : 77K (45K the original SKU)
Touch Bomberman Land: 44K
Other Bomberman DS games lower than 15K
FC Bomberman 810.000 Hudson Soft 12/20/1985
SFC Super Bomberman: Panic Bomber W 25.576 47.727 Hudson 3/1/1995
SFC Super Bomberman 3 458.805 Hudson 4/28/1995
GB Bomberman GB 2 13.417 Hudson 8/10/1995
SFC Super Bomberman 4 356.919 Hudson 4/26/1996
SAT Saturn Bomberman 44.902 129.616 Hudson 7/19/1996
GB Bomberman Collection 7.669 28.238 Hudson 7/21/1996
SFC Bomberman B-Daman 36.732 82.206 Hudson 12/20/1996
SFC Super Bomberman 5 45.948 199.375 Hudson 2/28/1997
N64 Bomberman 64 51.128 190.668 Hudson 9/26/1997
SAT Saturn Bomberman: Fight!! 14.792 14.792 Hudson 12/11/1997
PS1 Bomberman World 76.801 217.101 Hudson 1/29/1998
PS1 Bomberman Wars 6.929 6.929 Hudson 4/16/1998
N64 Bomberman Hero 14.666 34.104 Hudson 4/30/1998
PS1 Bomberman Fantasy Race 18.359 Hudson 8/6/1998
PS1 Bomberman: Party Edition [All Versions] 34.945 156.600 Hudson 12/10/1998
GB Bomberman Quest 15.325 62.093 Hudson 12/24/1998
N64 Bomberman 64: The Second Attack! 12.257 116.070 Hudson 12/3/1999
GB Bomberman Max: Blue Champion / Red Challenger [Game Boy Color] 59.941 Hudson 12/17/1999
PS1 Bomberman Land 32.595 154.346 Hudson 12/21/2000
GBA Bomberman Story 18.072 99.050 Hudson 4/27/2001
PS2 Bomberman Kart 59.219 Hudson 12/20/2001
N64 Bomberman 64 USA 13.080 Hudson 12/20/2001
NGC Bomberman Generation 10.829 50.856 Bandai 6/27/2002
GBA Bomberman Jetters 3.608 27.680 Hudson 10/24/2002
PS2 Bomberman Land 2 14.968 69.908 Hudson 7/17/2003
GBA Famicom Mini 09: Bomberman 24.658 117.776 Nintendo 2/14/2004
PS2 Bomberman Land Series: Bomberman Kart DX 4.553 19.326 Hudson 4/15/2004
NDS Bomberman [All Versions] 7.351 76.711 Hudson 5/19/2005
PS2 Bomberman Land 3 6.284 24.255 Hudson 8/4/2005
NDS Touch! Bomberman Land 9.044 43.847 Hudson 7/20/2006
PSP Bomberman Portable 3.712 20.159 Hudson 7/20/2006
360 Bomberman Act: Zero 2.035 3.713 Hudson 8/3/2006
WII Bomberman Land Wii 6.241 42.256 Hudson 3/8/2007
NDS Bomberman Story DS 4.359 4.359 Hudson 3/21/2007
PSP Bomberman Land Portable 1.648 1.648 Hudson 3/21/2007
NDS Touch! Bomberman Land 2 [All Versions] 3.038 9.779 Hudson 7/19/2007
WII Bomberman Blast [All Versions] 3.600 52.809 Hudson 9/25/2008
NDS Custom Battler Bomberman 1.600 13.758 Hudson 12/4/2008
I think people need to come back to earth. It's not 1985.
It's not a port of the mobile game. Based on the description, it sounds like another Summer Lesson shovelware "experience" like most VR games.
It seems to be a shitty "go on dates with your favorite Servant" type of thing. I don't see it being big. (on top of being a VR game)
Ah, think the only audience you can count on with VR in Japan is the otaku's.Safest game they could make I guess.
Sony should be courting the bigger VN devs to work on remakes of full VN's for VR.
Jon Carter
Member
I wonder if the strategy of releasing MK8 DX a little under two months after launch will work all that well at getting people excited for the hardware. Mario Kart is obviously a huge franchise to have so soon after a system launch, but as a Wii U owner, I can't get excited for it since there are zero new race tracks. It will have been a great strategy if we see a lot of non-Wii U owners being early adopters of the system, but I would think Wii U owners would make up the majority of them. It will do well but I have my doubts it will be a big enough deal to keep momentum going, which is obviously Nintendo's keikaku.
Also, I hope they will do more to differentiate Splatoon 2 from the first one. If it feels like a rehash, it could stifle the hype.
As I said before, though, I have a good feeling about ARMS, being a new IP from the makers of Mario Kart that so far looks fresh and exciting from a gameplay standpoint.
Also, I hope they will do more to differentiate Splatoon 2 from the first one. If it feels like a rehash, it could stifle the hype.
As I said before, though, I have a good feeling about ARMS, being a new IP from the makers of Mario Kart that so far looks fresh and exciting from a gameplay standpoint.
Quoting myself, because I wanted to make a filtered version of these charts, with no accessories included and games counted just once, in order to create "filtered" top 100s and, so, to post "filtered" presence of consoles by games in there. If you will, this could become a feature that gets posted once in a while (not necessairly once a week).
In recent times, Amazon has started putting up to preorder special, Amazon-esclusive versions of games (even consoles, by looking at Switch), both regular and limited SKUs, which boasts the presence of single games in the charts. Unfortunately, since I don't know how much all the different versions of a game add up, games will be counted by taking the highest SKU in chart as basis, so it's possible they can be actually higher. Also, I'll take out accessories (Horii stuff, chargers, etc.) so all the charts are "corrected". I'll take rankbank.com/amaran top 100/200/300 as reference, by specifing the days and times for each chart. In this case, the day after the pre-order opening day, same times.
Just to recap, the criterias followed
- consoles counted as one, if they have different SKUs, the SKU placed the highest = reference for ranking
- games counted as one, if they have different SKUs, the SKU placed the highest = reference for ranking
- accessories (including amiibos) not counted
Nintendo 3DS | January 21st, 2011 | 04:00 AM
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11012104&cat=videogames
Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracles - 2nd
Super Street Fighter 3D Edition - 7th
Ridge Racer 3D - 12th
Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 19th
Nintendogs + Cats - 20th
Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 3D - 32nd
Steel Diver - 49th
Gundam The 3D Battle - 57th
PlayStation Vita | October 16th, 2011 | 04:00 AM
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=11101604&cat=videogames
Uncharted: The Golden Abyss - 2nd
Hot Shots Golf 6 - 3rd
Ridge Racer - 14th
Dream Club Zero Portable - 20th
Disgaea 3 Return - 21st
Shin Kamaitachi no Yoru: 11 Hitome no Suspect - 26th
Dynasty Warriors Next - 29th
Lord of Apocalypse - 30th
Touch My Katamari - 35th
Army Corps of Hell - 46th
Shinobido 2 - 51st
Blazblue Continuum Shift Extend - 76th
Ultimate Marvel v.s. Capcom 3 - 96th
Wii U | October 7th, 2011 | 04:00 AM
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=12100704&cat=videogames&page=0
New Super Mario Bros. U - 5th
Nintendo Land - 15th
Zombi U - 30th
PS4 | October 6th, 2013 | 04:00 AM
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=13100604&cat=videogames&page=0
Watch Dogs - 9th
Yakuza Ishin - 10th
Killzone: Shadow Fall - 19th
Assassin's Creed: Black Flag - 28th
Drive Club - 38th
Battlefield 4 - 39th
Call of Duty: Ghosts - 45th
Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends - 54th
FIFA 14 - 88th
Switch | January 22nd, 2017 | 04:00 Am
http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/rank/?date=17012204&cat=videogames
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 2nd
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 8th
Super Bomberman R - 9th
1 2 Switch - 10th
Dragon Quest Heroes I-II - 18th
Puyo Puyo Tetris R - 54th
Disgaea 5 - 58th
I am Setsuna - ?*
* = using this criteria, I am Setsuna is in the filtered Top 100 as well (well before the 100th item after filter applied, given the ranges and trends), but it's probably among the "No Data" blank spaces in rankbank Amazon charts, so I can't exactly trace back where it was (right now, it's 169th in normal Amazon.co.jp charts).
MK7 sold roughly twice as much as MK8 so there is room for potential MK players that still haven't bought MK8 (admittedly early adopters are likely to be core Nintendo fans thus likely to already own MK8).
I'm also wondering how many japanese gamers will double dip simply for the ability to play WiiU remasters on commute or local multiplayer while outside.
Of course MK8 deluxe isn't as exciting as a brand new MK but a brand new MK is unlikely to be launched after 2 months from a Nintendo console launch.
NIS can't stay on Vita forever.
It's in their best interest to release their niche games on PS4/Switch (and PC) by using a crossplatform engine.
That would be a strange decision on their part for multiple reasons.
Since Oregano somehow introduced the topic
Disgaea: Original releaes v.s. Portable remakes (source: Famitsu)
[PS2] Disgaea: Hour of Darkness {2003.30.01} - 46,883 / 124,316
[PSP] Disgaea: Afternoon of Darkness {2006.30.11} - 21,712 / 107,169
[DS] Disgaea DS {2008.26.08} - 14,666 / 38,770
[PS2] Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories {2006.23.02} - 97,456 / 150,428
[PSP] Disgaea 2: Dark Hero Days {2009.26.03} - 35,319 / 108,073
[PS3] Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice {2008.31.01} - 56,441 / 93,227
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention {2011.17.12} - 21,848 / 61,803
[PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten {2011.24.02} - 77,449 / 129,031
[PSV] Disgaea 4: A Promise Revisited {2014.30.01} - 29,904 / 54,566
[PS4] Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance {2015.26.03} - 22,872 / 38,400
[NSW] Disgaea 5: Complete {2017.03.03} - ?
Disgaea: Original releaes v.s. Portable remakes (source: Famitsu)
[PS2] Disgaea: Hour of Darkness {2003.30.01} - 46,883 / 124,316
[PSP] Disgaea: Afternoon of Darkness {2006.30.11} - 21,712 / 107,169
[DS] Disgaea DS {2008.26.08} - 14,666 / 38,770
[PS2] Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories {2006.23.02} - 97,456 / 150,428
[PSP] Disgaea 2: Dark Hero Days {2009.26.03} - 35,319 / 108,073
[PS3] Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice {2008.31.01} - 56,441 / 93,227
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention {2011.17.12} - 21,848 / 61,803
[PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten {2011.24.02} - 77,449 / 129,031
[PSV] Disgaea 4: A Promise Revisited {2014.30.01} - 29,904 / 54,566
[PS4] Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance {2015.26.03} - 22,872 / 38,400
[NSW] Disgaea 5: Complete {2017.03.03} - ?
I agree but I think Disgaea 5 underperforming will send them running for the hills. It will be interesting to see if they announce any other Switch projects before release. Exile Election isn't coming to Switch.
It was just a thought when I saw how low it was on the rankings you posted. Especially in comparison to Disgaea 3 Vita.
Ōkami;228831669 said:
...Zelda is a lot higher than what I thought it would've had as a start, the same for 1 2 Switch, given its nature; hopefully more games will appear in the next few days.
Years ago, IIRC launch games tended to have high preorders:actual sales ratios, compared to other games in the same series, but the major trend of the ratios decreasing over time should've involved launch games as well. I'll have to check what happened with PS4, given it's the most recent launch we have.
EDIT: Yep, here's the final preorder day for PS4 on Comgnet, compared with actual sales (from Media Create and Famitsu)
Comgnet
[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! - 80 pts
[PS4] Battlefield 4 - 35 pt
[PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall - 21pt
Media Create
03./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 82.540 / NEW
07./00. [PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥7.245) - 32.336 / NEW
08./00. [PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 24.799 / NEW
Famitsu
03./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 73.086 / NEW <60-80%>
07./00. [PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 26.878 / NEW <60-80%>
08./00. [PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥7.245) - 25.978 / NEW <60-80%>
P.S. More specifically, Zelda is 59pt regular, 23pt Collector's Edition. Wii U version didn't chart in top 20, so under 13pt (MK8Deluxe is right at 20th).
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Ōkami;228831669 said:
When you say Zelda is the third most preordered game, does that include the Wii U version or just the switch?
How much do you think they are expecting it to sell?
Wii U version of Zelda isn't on comgnet (so less than 13 points) including it doesn't make a difference when Zelda is is 20pts above Gran Turismo and 80 below Resident Evil 7.
Talking about that one, preorders for 7 are pretty bad, should be the mainline series' worst first week on PlayStation systems since the original game, likely even below Code: Veronica on the Dreamcast.
Talking about that one, preorders for 7 are pretty bad, should be the mainline series' worst first week on PlayStation systems since the original game, likely even below Code: Veronica on the Dreamcast.
D5 shipped 172K worldwide. Japanese sales were "tough".
- Sales of Disgaea 5 = 60k in Japan; 112k overseas. Notes that they expanded to release in Asia this time. Sales in Japan were "tough" but sales in NA/EU/AS made up for it.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=193959056&postcount=1
Probably at least half of Disgaea 3 Vita but I don't see D5: Complete doing 10k first week.
See I remember looking at the first week sales and going, yeah, that's about what I expect on the PS4 in Japan for that series. It's the LTD that's shocking as there's no competition in the genre on the platform and it's generally regarded as a good game.
Looking in to Disagea 5 I went to the Nintendo.co.jp website to see when it released. So launch day but costs the same as Breath of The wild....good luck with that.
Hilalriously, Google translates english translation of it's genre is "The worst simulation RPG in history"
Made me lol
Hilalriously, Google translates english translation of it's genre is "The worst simulation RPG in history"
Made me lol
pretty done
Member
I always wondered how this series kept going, and apparently not from Japan. It just seems so niche for the amount of games and spinoffs.
Holy shit that's way too many games released in so little time. No wonder the IP collapsed in the long term.
I'm expecting a 30k-50k range LTD mostly due to how much time passed, but there's still a chance it might... bomb.
Maybe 1998 instead of 1985
I mean at this point it's not that farfetched to think it will outperform the fw of the last 12 games in the list, it being a launch title with multiplayer will help and playing with the nostalgia factor will be a plus too (see the Famicom mini release in 2004).
Now whether it's a 20k or 50k seller remains to be seen and there's not much more argument to be made, but despite being a low profile game that will still be interesting to see.
Offtopic
We're on the same page and you're a reasonable poster (
) so nothing wrong here, but it's quite alright to quote or give names rather than use "people".
I get the feeling the word is too often used in MC threads to push some agenda (you know the usual quote "wow people were so wrong on this prediction [...] it's much better than what people predicted" etc.) while not making any proper argument or even quote the said "people" too often, because they simply don't exist or are some one time poster, or one person being terribly wrong because she's pushing for the opposite agenda.
Well just some rant on my side as I clearly don't like reading the word, "people" can ignore it as it's not directly related to this thread at all
except for Medarot amirit
I get the feeling the word is too often used in MC threads to push some agenda (you know the usual quote "wow people were so wrong on this prediction [...] it's much better than what people predicted" etc.) while not making any proper argument or even quote the said "people" too often, because they simply don't exist or are some one time poster, or one person being terribly wrong because she's pushing for the opposite agenda.
Well just some rant on my side as I clearly don't like reading the word, "people" can ignore it as it's not directly related to this thread at all
My bold prediction is >100K (a very bullish prediction would be for SBR to be the first Bomberman game to sell close to 200K in 20 years).
I'm probably wrong but if there is a situation where Bomberman might revert the trend compared the latest entries it's this one.
Long absence, launch game, known for to be a fun multiplayer game (and coop added to SBR single player campaign) on a system that seems focused on local multiplayer (think about tabletop mode, this game is ideal for it), game that seems to leverage into Super Bomberman nostalgia and those were good performing games (in the roaring '90s).
High price is a bummer though.
It's one of the cheaper Switch games in Japan though. It's right around portable pricing.