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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2015 (Jul 13 - Jul 19)

btw that worst comment is my personal opinion on game quality not series sales data



New mobile game: http://www.dragonquest.jp/hoshidora/
So with that this gets us:

Week 1: Dragon Quest VIII 3DS Info Stream (this continued on for a while)
Week 2: Dragon Quest Builders (PS4/PS3/Vita)
Week 3: Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (3DS)
Week 4: Dragon Quest of the Stars (iOS/Android)

I'm guessing Week 5 is going to be something like initial information on Dragon Quest Heroes 2 with a teaser or a conference in X days/weeks that will be the actual Dragon Quest 11 reveal.

Also it seems they were very serious when they said they were going to make the series multiplatform back in 2013: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=619136
 

Spiegel

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Feb 20, 2007
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So with that this gets us:

Week 1: Dragon Quest VIII 3DS Info Stream (this continued on for a while)
Week 2: Dragon Quest Builders (PS4/PS3/Vita)
Week 3: Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (3DS)
Week 4: Dragon Quest of the Stars (iOS/Android)

I'm guessing Week 5 is going to be something like initial information on Dragon Quest Heroes 2 with a teaser or a conference in X days/weeks that will be the actual Dragon Quest 11 reveal.

Also it seems they were very serious when they said they were going to make the series multiplatform back in 2013: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=619136
A conference on the 28th... last Jump reveal shortly after that... it might be DQXI.
 

crinale

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Sep 25, 2008
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Oh, yes, if it's unveiled *before* the magazine then I'd totally believe it.

I just don't believe it will be unveiled in a magazine before a conference.
Info we are getting now are week4 (to be issued next week).
Earliest time we get week5 info will be a week from today.
If there's a conference at 28th then earliest week 5 info won't be available yet.

Anyway we'd better wait for more info..
 

dno_1966

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Feb 7, 2015
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Just noticed WiiU YTD is nearly above last year's figure, all down to Splatoon I presume!?

PS4 too but I imagine that's a bit more expected.
 

bigmit3737

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Aug 14, 2006
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Are their any big Vita exclusives to look forward to this year?

I thought there was a strategy game and a RPG in the works , have they been cancelled !
 

Jigorath

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Aug 22, 2013
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sörine;172747366 said:
FFVII remake is "PS4 first".

DQXI won't be though. There's going to be a PS3 version. SE's not suicidal.
We were talking about DQ, not FF.

And I never said there wasn't going to be a PS3 version.
 
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sörine;172748809 said:
DQXI started development when PS4 had zero userbase. Same with DQX and Wii U.
Dragon Quest X was for Wii, though, so the Wii U's userbase didn't have any impact on that.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
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well, if SE wants to go multiplatform with the episode, It would make more sense to make (the PS3 version port to) Wii U than NX, imho.
 

Oregano

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sörine;172748809 said:
DQXI started development when PS4 had zero userbase. Same with DQX and Wii U.
Depending on if NX is a handheld and when it(and DQXI) release it might not be too far behind PS4 install base wise.
 

sense

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Aug 4, 2012
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Why is the 28th being thrown around? Is it hinted at in the magazines or the China conference thing by Sony.
 

E-phonk

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They're not going to develop a DQ game for a platform with as yet zero user base.
Two "if's" - but if NX is a handheld and DQ releases in '17 (with NX launching in '16) chances are NX has a larger installbase than PS4 by the time of release in Japan.
If it's a successful platform it could even double it by Q4 2017.
 

sense

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Aug 4, 2012
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Two "if's" - but if NX is a handheld and DQ releases in '17 (with NX launching in '16) chances are NX has a larger installbase than PS4 by the time of release in Japan.
If it's a successful platform it could even double it by Q4 2017.
This reads like the new "is there any way wii u is not a grand success thread"
 
So this is a couple of days old, but I didn't want to cover it right before the new thread.

Accrdoing to Square Enix, the theme of their new IP Project Setsuna comes from the Japanese word of “setsunasa” which roughly means “sadness.”

During the interview, Yosuka Matsuda said that the development team of Tokyo RPG Factory that was revealed alongside the project centers around a team of external developers, including a number of freelance staff.

The development period for Project Setsuna is expected to be short, and the game will release sometime in 2016. Once it is released, they’ll carefully look over the results, and decide on whether they’ll continue growing it into a big IP.
“It’s important to create new IPs, but creating big IPs is difficult,” said Matsuda when asked about making new IPs. “Having been looking at the game industry up until now, it’s quite common to see [a video game series] take the form of a trilogy. In that sense, we need to have at least three [titles] before knowing whether it will continue growing or not.”

He continued, “It’s a smaller-scaled challenge up until the second title, and if you’ve raised the series enough to expect a big hit on the third title, then that’s when you can increase its scale. Once that third title becomes a success, that’s when I have nothing to worry about.”
Source: http://www.siliconera.com/2015/07/21/square-enixs-project-setsuna-has-sadness-as-a-theme/#j4j2CX5WcopLIKOi.99

While this is about Setsuna and New IPs in general, I get the sense that this policy also applies to their reboots/revivals of existing franchises given the general products they're putting out as well as the amount of financially minded statements from the games' producers.

Square Enix's new policy toward New IPs and revivals appears to be the following:

1.) Release a new IP/revival with a relatively small budget. We saw this with Bravely Default, the new SaGa game is on the Vita, and Star Ocean is leading on PS3.

2.) If successful, release a sequel with a similar budget to see if it keeps growing (or presumably at least stays the same). We saw this with Bravely Second. The other two are too new.

3.) If successful, release a sequel with a notably increased scale to try and make it a significantly bigger series.

4.) If successful, keep investing in the series, presumably even if an entry has financial difficulties (compare how Final Fantasy and Hitman keep going despite stumbles while series like Kane & Lynch or Square Enix Japan's myriad of new IPs get thrown out the window upon failure).

This is a very risk averse strategy. I would say that Step 2 is going to be the hardest for any series to pass. Square Enix's perspective appears to be that the people who bought the first game might have not actually liked it, and thus they want to release a similar sequel to see how many still show up before increasing their risk on the third entry. However, if those players liked the game, but want more out of the sequel, they might not show up for something that seems pretty much the same.

While this does achieve their goal of minimizing risk on any individual product, it also runs the risk of losing what could have been viable IPs by underdelivering on a new series' promise.

This does match with their strategy of making a very large number of bets instead of less, but carefully selected/higher investment bets, so I suspect they will keep with it for a while. I'm curious to see if anything actually makes it through the three game gauntlet however. They haven't made a new series that has gotten to the fourth entry since at least Kingdom Hearts, unless you don't want to consider that a new IP due to the licensing (a fair perspective), at which point I think we have to go back to Star Ocean in the late 90s.
 

Oregano

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Mar 13, 2013
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Honestly if the 3DS' successor can't significantly outpace the PS4 then a lot of publishers are in deep shit.
 

Kandinsky

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July 28th is also the day right before Nintendo's financial results. But I doubt they're related.
Indeed, If it had anything to do with Nintendo they would probably reschedule the conf due to Iwata passing imo.

D:
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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This reads like the new "is there any way wii u is not a grand success thread"
Market has changed.

Now, while nothing is off the table, if Nintendo actually launches a compelling handheld with compelling software, there's really no reason for them to be unable to gain considerable market share, if not dominate it again.

Why do I say this? Because the 3DS userbase is active and the consumer base is willing to still buy 3DSs more so than any other platform (consider, conversely, the state of the Wii towards its EoL where support disappeared and the consumer base lapsed), and the N3DS (probably sold to old users) shows a remaining interest in hardware purchases. You can look here, to see that the N3DS in Japan now sits at 1.83m since launch last Christmas. An incremental upgrade that was largely unnecessary for their consumer audience has sold more than the PS4's lifetime in half a year.
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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2.) If successful, release a sequel with a similar budget to see if it keeps growing (or presumably at least stays the same). We saw this with Bravely Second. The other two are too new.

This is a very risk averse strategy. I would say that Step 2 is going to be the hardest for any series to pass. Square Enix's perspective appears to be that the people who bought the first game might have not actually liked it, and thus they want to release a similar sequel to see how many still show up before increasing their risk on the third entry. However, if those players liked the game, but want more out of the sequel, they might not show up for something that seems pretty much the same.
Isn't this a bit of a catch-22 for the title and the audience?

Its as you said before, in how Nintendoand SE can be contrasted with FE:if and BSecond, and the building or lack there of of consumer confidence in your product. The narrative of a budget sequel to a game you may have like but had some quips with... is a gun shot to the knee right out of the gate on potential.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
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That would effectively be the end of the Japanese dedicated games industry as a self sustainable entity.
Indeed.
I mean, looking at this generation, we are probably going to see:

Portable console market nowadays (aggregated): 22.916.681 pieces
Home console market nowadays (aggregated): 4.119.075 pieces
Dedicated consoles market nowadays (aggregated): 27.035.756 pieces

Portable console market projected LTD (aggregated): 25 millions
Home console market projected LTD (aggregated): 8 millions
Dedicated consoles market projected LTD (aggregated) 33 millions

among those 33 millions, let's say that 20 millions are 3DS pieces and 5 millions are PS4 pieces.
if the 3DS successor will not be able to easily outpace the PS4 performances, beating it just slighlty, let's say reaching 7 millions LTD, that would slice the totale HW sales from 33 millions to 20 millions, aggregated.
but that is considering all other future devices (PSVita2, etc...) able to repeat their predecessors numbers. And I really doubt that (in a situation where the 3DS successor struggles to beat PS4 nowadays numbers). Many of us even doubt about the simple existence of a PSVita2.

So, the total aggregated HW sales for the dedicated videogame market would be way worst, probably around 12 millions total.

Insustainable, imho.