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[Principate]

That'd be Capcom's call.

Honestly it'd be in capcoms best interest either way (stronger NX launch more likely to build a health ecosystem), and has been shown with 4G launch title or new SKU bumps aren't a meaningless thing for on portable system systems for franchises of MH size.

Most likely reason not to would be them straight up giving up on traditional handheld consoles

 

[Hero of Legend]

It's a toughie if Stories or X gets an NX port. They could do both, and hopefully they do. I'd prefer they do XG at launch and maybe Stories in Spring 2017?

Then hopefully MH5 as an exclusive to be the main 3rd-party game showing the NX's dual handheld and console synergy.

 

[AniHawk]

the playstation ecosystem is pretty strong. 2.1m this year is pretty close to nintendo's 2.3m that could potentially be their base for nx. i wonder if ps5 will incorporate the nx strategy if it's successful.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

11./00. [PS4] Blade Arcus from Shining EX # <FTG> (Sega) {2015.11.26} (¥7.549) - 12.469 / NEW

16./00. [PS3] Blade Arcus from Shining EX # <FTG> (Sega) {2015.11.26} (¥7.549) - 8.083 / NEW

Damn

 

[ZSaberLink]

Well, looking at the Monster Hunter release cycle:

2004: Monster Hunter
2005: Monster Hunter G, Monster Hunter Freedom
2006: Monster Hunter 2
2007: Monster Hunter Freedom 2
2008: Monster Hunter Freedom Unite
2009: Monster Hunter Tri
2010: Monster Hunter Portable 3rd
2011: Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate
2012:
2013: Monster Hunter 4
2014: Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate
2015: Monster Hunter X

It would be improbable for there to be no traditional Monster Hunter for Fall 2016.

Technically there was MH3G for Wii U in 2012.

the playstation ecosystem is pretty strong. 2.1m this year is pretty close to nintendo's 2.3m that could potentially be their base for nx. i wonder if ps5 will incorporate the nx strategy if it's successful.

Are we really trying to compare 3DS 5th year + Wii U 3rd year to NX 1st year? 2.3M for NX first year in Japan would be a flop.... (3DS went 4M, 5.6M, 4.9M, 3M to start...)

 

[ZSaberLink]

Whoops double post.

 

[Nirolak]

I know it's an enhanced port, but you forgot Monster Hunter 3G HD Version in 2012.

...Which is also what I think it could happen right at NX's launch (if there's one NX device released next year; in case both SKU are released and not at the same time, right at one of the two launches): Monster Hunter X HD Version, with more enhancements than what happened from MH3G and MH3G HD Version. MHX hasn't been announced for the West yet, despite the MH4U's big (and continued) success over here, and that's another factor that makes me think about the possibilities of MHXHD being a thing.

Technically there was MH3G for Wii U in 2012.

Right. I was mostly sticking with the regular new entries, but a port is certainly an option too.

That said, given 2012 is the only missed year, I feel a straight up Monster Hunter X Ultimate is more likely. As I linked a few posts up, Capcom felt very strongly about their success in the West and given that Monster Hunter X still isn't announced for the West, I'm assuming it's because there's an expanded version coming later.

 

[Vena]

the playstation ecosystem is pretty strong. 2.1m this year is pretty close to nintendo's 2.3m that could potentially be their base for nx. i wonder if ps5 will incorporate the nx strategy if it's successful.

The relative comparison is bad. Saturation, EoL, and other factors are crippling one sum that would not be indicative of *good* NX performance on launch... by a factor of at least 2.

Software tells a lot more of a story.

 

[megabytecr]

Launch NX with any kind of MH and you guarantee success.

Great news for Wii U, Splatoon and SMM.

 

[Chris1964]

Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival sellthrough is still below 20% at Famitsu. We know so far that initial shipment was at least 96k. I don't believe there was a single retailer that received additional copies after launch.

 

[twothunder]

01./00. [3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥6.264) - 1.488.367 / NEW
Monster Hunter X being a true monster

03./08. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 23.823 / 825.940 (+35%)
04./11. [WIU] Super Mario Maker # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} (¥6.156) - 18.639 / 410.432 (+41%)
Splatoon and Mario maker only going up now.

19./05. [WIU] Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival <TBL> (Nintendo) {2015.11.21} (¥6.480) - 6.022 / 26.325 (-70%)
A well deserved bomb

3DS 133.628
WIU 19.120
Amazing number for the 3DS and nice to see another Wii-U bump

 

[Oregano]

Right. I was mostly sticking with the regular new entries, but a port is certainly an option too.

That said, given 2012 is the only missed year, I feel a straight up Monster Hunter X Ultimate is more likely. As I linked a few posts up, Capcom felt very strongly about their success in the West and given that Monster Hunter X still isn't announced for the West, I'm assuming it's because there's an expanded version coming later.

IIRC they also noted that launching alongside the N3DS helped MH4U achieve its success. It might make sense to launch with NX. Maybe not exclusively but then again Capcom sold a million copies of Street Fighter IV at 3DS launch.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Look at what Square Enix is doing on PS4 in preparation for FFXV.

Capcom will probably do the same on NX for MH5.

Nirolak can ban Hero of Legend if Capcom doesn't have MHX NX ready for the launch window.

 

[Aostia]

the NX "obvious" games are becoming a little bit of a meme, like mh vita and dq9 psp, imho
hopefully nintendo will unveil the system, whatever it is, on january so we can start to better understand its potential

 

[Nirolak]

the NX "obvious" games are becoming a little bit of a meme, like mh vita and dq9 psp, imho
hopefully nintendo will unveil the system, whatever it is, on january so we can start to better understand its potential

I'm expecting 6+ more months of speculation before the system is unveiled at this rate.

 

[Pennywise83]

the NX "obvious" games are becoming a little bit of a meme, like mh vita and dq9 psp, imho
hopefully nintendo will unveil the system, whatever it is, on january so we can start to better understand its potential

Wut? DQIX and MH PSV were part of a huge port-begging movement - MH NX would only be just the natural continuation of the IP.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I'm expecting 6+ more months of speculation before the system is unveiled at this rate.

Xbox waited until like may so thats possible.

 

[Spiegel]

I'm expecting 6+ more months of speculation before the system is unveiled at this rate.

It's not like speculating that MH is going to release on the only handheld system on the market is an unbelievable prediction.

 

[Kyoufu]

I can see Monster Hunter, just like DQ, going multiplatform in the future. Exclusivity is becoming a thing of the past.

MHX will most likely get a G version. They shouldn't make the same mistake they made with P3rd this time around.

 

[DrWong]

I can see Monster Hunter, just like DQ, going multiplatform in the future. Exclusivity is becoming a thing of the past.

Like for last week #1 sales result? :]

 

[Hero of Legend]

Look at what Square Enix is doing on PS4 in preparation for FFXV.

Capcom will probably do the same on NX for MH5.

Nirolak can ban Hero of Legend if Capcom doesn't have MHX NX ready for the launch window.

I'm certainly not saying it's exactly what will happen, I don't know, I'm not Capcom. It's just what I think is very likely and would make a lot of sense IMO.

Like for last week #1 sales result? :]

Exactly. Plus Yo-Kai Watch also is additional proof.

 

[Kyoufu]

Like for last week #1 sales result? :]

Keyword here is "becoming".

MH has yet to go multi, but I'm pretty certain it will.

 

[Chris1964]

If MH is to go multi more possible is 3DS/NX multi.

 

[Vena]

Keyword here is "becoming".

MH has yet to go multi, but I'm pretty certain it will.

MH is multiplatform. Certain products of the line are not, and they likely won't change it given the strengths of the product and a lack of other conducive products on the market.

 

[Y2Kev]

MH is multiplatform. Certain products of the line are not, and they likely won't change it given the strengths of the product and a lack of other conducive products on the market.

What likelihood would you put on it?

 

[thestopsign]

the NX "obvious" games are becoming a little bit of a meme, like mh vita and dq9 psp, imho
hopefully nintendo will unveil the system, whatever it is, on january so we can start to better understand its potential

Nintendo has Dragon Question XI lined up for it already. I am sure Level 5 will show support with Snack World and Yokai Watch. Monster Hunter is a virtual lock. NX should be fine for big-name 3rd parties.

 

[Vena]

What likelihood would you put on it?

On what? Monster Hunter 5 going multiplat?

 

[Y2Kev]

On what? Monster Hunter 5 going multiplat?

As in multi-ecosystem.

 

[ivysaur12]

I can't even believe Splatoon. Like, unreal.

 

[Prelude.]

Not that releasing this week was a particularly smart idea but it's really sad that Net High didn't chart. Did it even have any kind of advertising? Like, more than zero?

Guess we'll the be the ones saving the game like with Zero Escape.

 

[Eolz]

I can see Monster Hunter, just like DQ, going multiplatform in the future. Exclusivity is becoming a thing of the past.

MHX will most likely get a G version. They shouldn't make the same mistake they made with P3rd this time around.

It's already multiplatform yeah. With mobile (and console if you count Frontier).

What likelihood would you put on it?

For multi-ecosystem: already the case. For MonHun 5 going multiplatform (apart from NX console port): none.

 

[Y2Kev]

None! Wow. Definitive.

 

[Vena]

As in multi-ecosystem.

I mean, MonHun already exists on multiple ecosystems between mobile, 3DS, WiiU, PC, and soon to be PS4 with MHFO2 (unless that project/discussion from last year totally evaporated, but I don't see why it would have). So it already exists multi-ecosystem with products targeting the strengths of the ecosystem they appear on.

Right now, as I look at it, MH # or MH (letter) have their strengths in being mobile-friendly, designed conceptually in bite-size hunts that fit perfectly for stop-go mobile play, and the market likes the product in such a way. We've seen no explosion of hunting games taking off on console platforms (and we've in fact seen products diverge from MH formula in an attempt to appeal more broadly to the western strengths of the consoles, like with Toukiden), historically this has also not happened on much more successful platforms both in Japan and worldwide. Seemingly Capcom didn't even see interest in porting MH4U to the WiiU despite what would have likely been minor work and its predecessor doing respectable (albeit relative to the handheld, low) numbers.

I wouldn't be even remotely surprised if we started seeing MH #/Letter/Greek Symbol appear in some capacity on mobile. (By the time the next MH mainline is set to launch, also, I'd imagine the Vita will be even more moribund and, in the west, probably gone the way of house phones.) But I honestly don't see a logic in putting it on any console, even the NX home console outside of some "by default" nature of existence. The product (as in home consoles) isn't of a type that the fanbase seems to want, the product isn't on a platform that the market generally seems to want.

To top it off, I would imagine Nintendo as a business would not want to let go of the product line they have a hold of to themselves (and are seemingly doing all in their power to proliferate the brand as a quantity amongst their extended fanbase with crossovers). Money is a war they can fight and biding can come from all sides, but when it comes to having a product conducive to the market (and the potential to actually act like a market leader) to synergize with the franchise... they're pretty much the only ones who have a shot at even making that argument. Even the ever lofted "western strength" argument of the PS4/X1 would be rather folly in this scenario as the west has in general (on more successful consoles) not been a strong front for the franchise or genre and its not like the 3DS (and potentially NX) would suddenly lose its tens of millions of western populace. That handheld market in the west also responded well to MH4U.

Hopefully I've been coherent!

 

[Oregano]

What's more likely; Monster Hunter 5 on PS4 or FFVII on NX?

Spoiler

It's totally the former.

 

[Eolz]

None! Wow. Definitive.

To be a bit more precise: none if we're talking about MonHun5 (as said) and if it's on NX handheld (as implied).
Not saying other games (like X, Frontier, Explore, etc) couldn't go "multi-ecosystem" since again, this is already the case.

If we're saying how many chances MH5 has to be multi-ecosystem, on the assumption it might not be on NX handheld: 10%.

 

[Nirolak]

I mean, MonHun already exists on multiple ecosystems between mobile, 3DS, WiiU, PC, and soon to be PS4 with MHFO2 (unless that project/discussion from last year totally evaporated, but I don't see why it would have). So it already exists multi-ecosystem with products targeting the strengths of the ecosystem they appear on.

Right now, as I look at it, MH # or MH (letter) have their strengths in being mobile-friendly, designed conceptually in bite-size hunts that fit perfectly for stop-go mobile play, and the market likes the product in such a way. We've seen no explosion of hunting games taking off on console platforms (and we've in fact seen products diverge from MH formula in an attempt to appeal more broadly to the western strengths of the consoles, like with Toukiden), historically this has also not happened on much more successful platforms both in Japan and worldwide. Seemingly Capcom didn't even see interest in porting MH4U to the WiiU despite what would have likely been minor work and its predecessor doing respectable (albeit relative to the handheld, low) numbers.

I wouldn't be even remotely surprised if we started seeing MH #/Letter/Greek Symbol appear in some capacity on mobile. (By the time the next MH mainline is set to launch, also, I'd imagine the Vita will be even more moribund and, in the west, probably gone the way of house phones.) But I honestly don't see a logic in putting it on any console, even the NX home console outside of some "by default" nature of existence. The product (as in home consoles) isn't of a type that the fanbase seems to want, the product isn't on a platform that the market generally seems to want.

To top it off, I would imagine Nintendo as a business would not want to let go of the product line they have a hold of to themselves (and are seemingly doing all in their power to proliferate the brand as a quantity amongst their extended fanbase with crossovers). Money is a war they can fight and biding can come from all sides, but when it comes to having a product conducive to the market (and the potential to actually act like a market leader) to synergize with the franchise... they're pretty much the only ones who have a shot at even making that argument. Even the ever lofted "western strength" argument of the PS4/X1 would be rather folly in this scenario as the west has in general (on more successful consoles) not been a strong front for the franchise or genre and its not like the 3DS (and potentially NX) would suddenly lose its tens of millions of western populace. That handheld market in the west also responded well to MH4U.

Hopefully I've been coherent!

So, while I would in no way be shocked if the main series stayed handheld exclusive, I did want to comment on something more broadly here.

1.) You spend the first two paragraphs establishing that the Hunting Action genre has not been big on consoles, so there's not a notable incentive to port games there because they likely wouldn't sell very much.

2.) Then, in the third paragraph, you talk about how Nintendo would be willing to spend a lot of money to keep Monster Hunter off of home consoles.

Like... I don't follow the logic from argument 1 to argument 2. If Monster Hunter 5 would sell 4 million on NX Handheld and 500K on PS4, what's the incentive in paying to stop that from happening? I see the argument for Capcom to not bother with the PS4 version, but not the argument for why Nintendo would even be slightly perturbed by this if we believe the sales scenario.

 

[Vena]

2.) Then, in the third paragraph, you talk about how Nintendo would be willing to spend a lot of money to keep Monster Hunter off of home consoles.

? I meant that Nintendo would spend money to keep the franchise to themselves. Exclusivity is still advantageous for Nintendo as a whole, is it not? It makes their product the only option.

Like... I don't follow the logic from argument 1 to argument 2. If Monster Hunter 5 would sell 4 million on NX Handheld and 500K on PS4, what's the incentive in paying to stop that from happening? I see the argument for Capcom to not bother with the PS4 version, but not the argument for why Nintendo would even be slightly perturbed by this if we believe the sales scenario.

I agree with the idea of Capcom not bothering in this hypothetical scenario which was my point in that regard.

 

[Y2Kev]

? I meant that Nintendo would spend money to keep the franchise to themselves.

Why? It's not worth it if you're just preventing a port that is going to bomb from happening.

 

[Kandinsky]

What's more likely; Monster Hunter 5 on PS4 or FFVII on NX?

Spoiler

It's totally the former.

FF7 on NX is a sure thing at this point, and yes I'm basing this on Cloud in Smash, and yes I know it got Snake before w'o MGS4 on the Wii.

 

[Nirolak]

? I meant that Nintendo would spend money to keep the franchise to themselves.

Why? It's not worth it if you're just preventing a port that is going to bomb from happening.

Yes. That's what I was trying to say.

What's the incentive to pay money to prevent a port if you think your version will outsell it by 8 to 1 or something similar anyway?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

What's more likely; Monster Hunter 5 on PS4 or FFVII on NX?

Spoiler

It's totally the former.

FF VII on NX.

 

[Eolz]

Why? It's not worth it if you're just preventing a port that is going to bomb from happening.

Yes. That's what I was trying to say.

What's the incentive to pay money to prevent a port if you think your version will outsell it by 8 to 1 or something similar anyway?

What about paying to basically get a NX (or WiiU in the past) home console port and avoid at the same time for it be on whichever console Capcom would have wanted otherwise?
Nintendo (or Sony/MS in the case of other games) just pay to be sure to have their port, Capcom gets money for a port that probably would have happened anyway, all while winning an exclusive.

 

[Sterok]

I don't think Nintendo would moneyhat Monster Hunter on the basis that they don't have a history of doing that outside of games they're directly publishing (like Bayonetta 2). It's generally agreed that they've incentivized Capcom with marketing in the west and probably some other backroom deals, but no outright exclusivity deal was ever made. Now maybe Capcom would want to keep the series exclusive to Nintendo platforms in order to not risk losing those incentives (though seeing what's happening with Smash, maybe Nintendo would still help them even if it did go multiplatform), but I don't see Nintendo outright preventing MonHun from releasing on Sony platforms. Same goes for Yokai going mobile multiplatform, though since Nintendo is publishing it in the west they may have a tighter grip on that series.

 

[Nirolak]

What about paying to basically get a NX (or WiiU in the past) home console port and avoid at the same time for it be on whichever console Capcom would have wanted otherwise?
Nintendo (or Sony/MS in the case of other games) just pay to be sure to have their port, Capcom gets money for a port that probably would have happened anyway, all while winning an exclusive.

What does that net them if a Monster Hunter port didn't help the Wii U in any meaningful way, and the genre is seen as a non-starter on home consoles?

Like, if the argument against Monster Hunter for PS4 is that the Hunting Action genre is unattractive on home consoles, why would people fight over it?

 

[wiibomb]

Yes. That's what I was trying to say.

What's the incentive to pay money to prevent a port if you think your version will outsell it by 8 to 1 or something similar anyway?

in the same way, what is the incentive of a port if one version will out sell 8 to 1 another?

I don't think MH will go miltiplat soon

 

[Vena]

Why? It's not worth it if you're just preventing a port that is going to bomb from happening.

Yes. That's what I was trying to say.

What's the incentive to pay money to prevent a port if you think your version will outsell it by 8 to 1 or something similar anyway?

But you're not just preventing a port that is going to bomb. At least I don't see it in such a black-&-white way. You make the product limited to you, you prevent potential spill over or fracturing from a fanbase (or loss to competing products) you've effectively had on lock. The same reason any first party/hardware developer pays for the "Only on X" moniker. It makes your product the only product in a market of competition, irregardless of potential bombing or performances.

Moreover, in some hypothetical scenario of the NX being a multi-product line including both consoles and handhelds, the PS4 port is competition to their own console product line. "You want to play it on a home console? Play it on the NX."

 

[Nirolak]

in the same way, what is the incentive of a port if one version will out sell 8 to 1 another?

I don't think MH will go miltiplat soon

That's what I was saying though. If someone wants to make the argument that mainline Monster Hunter won't appear on the PS4 because it's not attractive to put it on home consoles, I don't get how you can simultaneously make the argument that it would be money hatted to avoid PS4.

Either the mainline games being on PS4 is a non-issue, or it's actually seen as something valuable and worth paying to prevent, since you wouldn't pay to prevent something that would never happen or have negligible impact on your business.

 

[Mr Swine]

FF7 on NX is a sure thing at this point, and yes I'm basing this on Cloud in Smash, and yes I know it got Snake before w'o MGS4 on the Wii.

Doesn't that depend solely on how powerful the console and handheld is?

 

[Eolz]

What does that net them if a Monster Hunter port didn't help the Wii U in any meaningful way, and the genre is seen as a non-starter on home consoles?

Like, if the argument against Monster Hunter for PS4 is that the Hunting Action genre is unattractive on home consoles, why would people fight over it?

For Capcom, it nets them nothing (apart from the money they could have gotten obviously).
For Nintendo (or any if the big 3), it's the usual "game with well-known IP that could attract some gamers on our console".
I don't think anybody would fight over Toukiden (for example), but MonHun, while not selling well on console (even if I think Tri was a good try/initiative from both sides), is still a well-known IP that is good for any manufacturer's reputation.
It probably is interesting enough for both sides to at least try at first.

4U on WiiU didn't make sense due to both WiiU sales and the lack of proven interest of its userbase for its previous port.
It's also harder for Capcom to now justify releasing an HD port only in Japan now (unlike 3rd HD for example) if every "main" version is also localized in the west now (unlike the PS2 era).

 

[Nirolak]

But you're not just preventing a port that is going to bomb. At least I don't see it in such a black-&-white way. You make the product limited to you, you prevent potential spill over or fracturing from a fanbase (or loss to competing products) you've effectively had on lock. The same reason any first party/hardware developer pays for the "Only on X" moniker. It makes your product the only product in a market of competition, irregardless of potential bombing or performances.

What meaningful fracturing is happening if essentially everyone is buying the game on your system anyway though?

Could you give some examples of games publishers have paid for that fit this scenario?

Moreover, in some hypothetical scenario of the NX being a multi-product line including both consoles and handhelds, the PS4 port is competition to their own console product line. "You want to play it on a home console? Play it on the NX."

But "You want to play it on a home console? Play it on the NX." is a worthless selling point to have unless we agree that a home console version is actually appealing in the first place.