-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Microsoft expects Xbox Series Life time sales at 56M-59M, 30M before XSX refresh release
- Thread starter Bernoulli
- Start date
It's really nothing special. They basically expect LTD end of 2027 sales to be 56m to 59m. Sony will pass 60m early next year to put things in context.
And all the estimates of Xbox Series currently being around 25m are absolutely off, they expect 30m at the end of 2024.
Killjoy-NL
Member
~45M max.
Series S/X will sell less than Xbox One.
Series S/X will sell less than Xbox One.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
Planning to sell in 3 years what the Wii/Switch/PS2(?) was capable of doing in one is not possible without the Activision deal? Did Xbox really fucked up that much to you?
For me the most curious is that they seems to not be sure about putting their new controller in the refresh consoles. I consider that a obvious necessity to give it better traction and to make it sure that third party games use the new features but I understand that it will cost Xbox a lot to do so. Sony did the same with the Sixaxis to Dualshock 3 but the difference is bigger this time. Curious to see how they will handle it. Maybe the actual Xbox controller will continue to exist as a base model and will be cheaper?
twilo99
Member
twilo99
Member
They didn’t fuck up that bad, it’s just that Sony has a very tight grip on the market so it’s extremely difficult to compete.
VolticArchangel
Member
That's actually a very good LTD estimate, considering Xbox One was 58m+.
Though conservative, and you'd expect Xbox to perform even better than the last generation, their push for Cloud and Gamepass makes up for the rest.
Though conservative, and you'd expect Xbox to perform even better than the last generation, their push for Cloud and Gamepass makes up for the rest.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
I personnaly love Playstation and consider it my main source of gaming experiences since the PS2. But I can still admit that Xbox does have some advantages. If they can't sell 30 millions of consoles in 3 years it would make them closer to the Wii U level of fail than ever. I don't think that the brand will be going that low in the next few years. As long as the Series S and X can play all third parties games and be sold cheaper than the PS5 then IMHO they will continue to sell relatively well.
Killjoy-NL
Member
The issue is that Series S/X has already lost any momentum they had.
Most of what they have sold were mostly the core Xbox fanbase, but seeing how PS5 outsold even Series S despite a Series pricecut during the holidays in Xbox strongest market, it's going to be an uphill battle from here on out.
Last edited:
They hope to match XBO sales.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Actually pretty realistic considering their 2028 goal.
Kupfer
Member
I've never ruled out returning to team green after the glorious original xbox and xbox360 generation; especially after Sony's recent anti-customer decisions and behavior. But sorry, with "all digital" I'm out. I can't support that, that's not the future, that leads to a gaming dystopia with monopoly-high-prices dictated by the megacorp with no alternatives
That's a step into even more customer-hostile territory that gamers shouldn't have to take.
That's a step into even more customer-hostile territory that gamers shouldn't have to take.
Last edited:
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
I agree with that. But being 60 millions X/S to 120+ millions PS5 is what I call a uphill battle. The Series X and S are not that much weaker than the PS5 in their core proposition. You can play games like FIFA, Fortnite, GTA 5 like the PS5. And Xbox will have a few exclusives like Starfield in the next few years( I hope). Don't get me wrong, FOR ME buying a Series console and not having the opportunity to play games like GOW Ragnarok and Demon's Souls is an aberration. But there is enough casuals that I can't see Xbox failling to convince them to buy Xbox consoles at the right price. Once again, the Xbox situation is really weak, but not catastrophic like the Wii U was, IMHO.
There is a good discussion to have about how much sales potential the S/X have in the next few years, how much having good exclusives( or not) can help them or hinder them, what impact the rumored PS5 Pro will have on the market, the Switch 2 can help them or doom them depending of your POV... But looking at "official" xbox projections of less than 30 millions consoles sold in 3 years and finding it not realist is weird to me. Xbox really have a good grasp of the US market. And that market seems to be sensible to prices. So I can see Xbox managing no matter what those sales numbers if they commit to manufacture them in the first place. A failure would hopefully means that Sony PS5 is doing even better than expected, and that would mean more great games from Sony.
vaibhavpisal
Member
They can sell way more if they want. Quality is there.
Just need to act so that positive news stays in limelight.
Halo Infinite was a big one. So is Starfield review debacle.
But honestly, if they wanna aim for this much, that's fine as well. Don't think anyone enjoys games more if system sold 120 million or 140 million.
Just need to act so that positive news stays in limelight.
Halo Infinite was a big one. So is Starfield review debacle.
But honestly, if they wanna aim for this much, that's fine as well. Don't think anyone enjoys games more if system sold 120 million or 140 million.
Xbox One had solid launch numbers but it fell off hard because of lack of first party games.
Series X/S gen clearly won't have that problem, so I'm expecting it will translate to better sales in second half of gen, so I'm expecting 60+ millions consoles sold.
Call of Duty on Game Pass effect is really hard to predict, but if it will be bigger then I'm expecting the I can see 65+ million consoles sold.
Series X/S gen clearly won't have that problem, so I'm expecting it will translate to better sales in second half of gen, so I'm expecting 60+ millions consoles sold.
Call of Duty on Game Pass effect is really hard to predict, but if it will be bigger then I'm expecting the I can see 65+ million consoles sold.
jm89
Member
Probably just as bad.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Copying the comment I made in the other thread:
So their entire gen forecast/ambition/goal is less than 59 million? Some were suggesting that they'd hit 90 million this generation.
Also, to sell 29M from 2024 to 2027, they will have to increase their yearly average to >9.7M consoles per year.
In the first 2 years (with 3 holiday seasons + a launch period), they averaged 9.2 million consoles, which has since decreased by -25% YoY to ~7M per year.
They are not hitting those numbers.
So their entire gen forecast/ambition/goal is less than 59 million? Some were suggesting that they'd hit 90 million this generation.
Also, to sell 29M from 2024 to 2027, they will have to increase their yearly average to >9.7M consoles per year.
In the first 2 years (with 3 holiday seasons + a launch period), they averaged 9.2 million consoles, which has since decreased by -25% YoY to ~7M per year.
They are not hitting those numbers.
Horseganador
Member
After spending 80,000 million on buying and hijacking multiple publishers, those are the sales expectations? PS5 will sell 25 million this year, Xbox tells you that it hopes to sell 25 million by the end of the generation, it is a disaster.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Why clearly? They are already declining, up to -25% YoY now.
Last edited:
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Seems like they have their heads screwed on. That's a reasonable number.
I mean. That kinda obvious when before Starfield launch they had almost 2 years gap between AAA first party releases.
But I don't know if you noticed, but they already have 4 first party games announced for 2024. And looking at the Bethesda leaked list of games in development, I expect that this won't repeat.
But don't worry. They will still be in third place so you can sleep well
Killjoy-NL
Member
Fair points, but this is the first gen where we see Xbox really struggling against Playstation right from the start, to the point that Spencer had to come out and say that Xbox as a brand is becoming unsustainable and that just releasing games isn't going to change anything. That doesn't show confidence in their own brand and it reflects in sales.
And while Xbox is struggling on all fronts, Sony is breaking record after record with every game they release and the PS5 still has momentum going. Even more so now that supply issues have been resolved.
Switch 2 will release soon as well, going by the rumors, making it even harder for MS to reach the casuals. Because Nintendo is also a factor.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
Yes to all of your points. And as a PS fan since 2000, I love seing the situation moving this way. Hope that it means that Xbox will have to compete the right way, with games. But in the leaks you can see that they want to buy zenimax too, so that would help them a lot to accomplish their sales objectives if it happen. They are here to stay. And until we see them stop caring that much about the gaming market I will suppose that they will do what they can to stay relevant. And console sales are a key metric in this space. So I can see them selling consoles a lot cheaper than Sony or Nintendo to stay in the race until next gen. We have seen 300 dollars Xbox One X to give you an idea of what they can do. But I have to admit that
Heisenberg007
post made me think. If they have to sell more than they did in the last few years, and do not have the means(great games) to do so, I can see them failing their objectives.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Considering they have been wrong about their releases, wrong about the competition, wrong about their sales forecasts, let me just say they are going to be dead wrong about this too. It’s not going to pass the 50 million mark.
Killjoy-NL
Member
Personally, I've always seen MS as a cancer in gaming, disrupting the entire industry.Yes to all of your points. And as a PS fan since 2000, I love seing the situation moving this way. Hope that it means that Xbox will have to compete the right way, with games. But in the leaks you can see that they want to buy zenimax too, so that would help them a lot to accomplish their sales objectives if it happen. They are here to stay. And until we see them stop caring that much about the gaming market I will suppose that they will do what they can to stay relevant. And console sales are a key metric in this space. So I can see them selling consoles a lot cheaper than Sony or Nintendo to stay in the race until next gen. We have seen 300 dollars Xbox One X to give you an idea of what they can do. But I have to admit that
The way I see it, is that due to their incompetence, they now throw money in every direction to buy up everything they can and just outspend Sony and any other company that stands in their way. They even literally discussed that.
Lower prices can be competed with, ee already see rumors/leaks of a PS5 Slim. All they have to do is to not be too expensive compared to Series consoles.
I wouldn't be suprised if they give up after this gen. The plans they've had, that we're seeing now, can already have changed.
Although, they can ofcourse continue and just postpone the inevitable. They do have the money to drag on some more. It just doesn't seem logical, given how they don't seem to have a clear direction.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Will those 4 first-party games increase their market share and console sales? If Starfield didn't, how will Hellblade 2, Avowed, and South of Midnight?
And just so you may have missed, the YoY decrease is compared to 2022 (when they didn't release games). In 2023, they have so far released Hi-Fi Rush, Redfall, Ghostwire Tokyo, Age of Empires, Starfield, and Forza is releasing.
The decrease is in this year.
Oh I will. Not sure about you thoughBut don't worry. They will still be in third place so you can sleep well
Last edited:
killatopak
Gold Member
That’s a pretty good estimate. I think gamepass blurs the lines here especially with it being available on PC. I just think despite projecting around the same number of XBO, their situation seems better.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
I am more ambivalent about them. In recent years they have been the cancer that you are talking about. And their pay to use online was the same a long time ago. But they did do some good for the industry. I don't care about it, but some people prefer the Xbox controller to Sony Dualshock series of controllers. In the 360 they did fund some good games and I still hope that they will one day retry that strategy. Their failures in recent years can be rectified, and they can be a good concurrent to Sony and Nintendo if they try to. Sadly they just want to buy the industry. And when we know that the gaming industry is bigger than the cinema, and that it is easier to control IMHO, I can see then continue to try in the next decade. As long as they stay profitable, there is no reason not to.
A PS5 slim will hurt them, but I can see Sony not pushing it to the max. The Ps4 Pro had no price cut in many countries because Sony believed that they could go away with it. Same for Nintendo and the Switch. Few or no price cuts. This will give Xbox a way to compete, by being cheap. But i may be wrong. As for Microsoft getting out of the gaming market? If the activision merger does not happen, I can see it happen like you. But they are really serious about it, so I am sadly getting accoustumed to the idea that they will buy it this year...
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I thought it was over 25 million already? or am I mixed up? SO you think its not going to do another 25 million in 5 years, when it did 25 million in less than 3?
Killjoy-NL
Member
You could very well be right. Time will tell.
I just think that the industry will be a lot healthier, with more healthy competition if it's just Playstation, Nintendo and PC.
Last edited:
Thirty7ven
Banned
Not it has not sold 25 million and yes the sales keep going down.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I thought it had sold 25 mill, must have been wrong. I guess its just shy of 25? maybe 22-23?
If it doesn't hit 50, that's terrible.
systemr123
Banned
If the PS pro is a real upgrade vs the Xbox refresh that offers you the same console but without disc drive but with a 2tb SSD, Xbox is dead in the water. No one will buy an obviously inferior console. Then again, we don’t know anything about the PS5 pro yet, maybe it’s the same kind of deal, but probably they’re really going for the PRO.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
I do not consider PC a concurrent to Playstation and Nintendo. More of a side piece. With Sony not making a successor to the PS VITA and Nintendo not trying to have a powerful console since the Gamecube, I think that Sony and Nintendo will recognise that they target different audience and make it so no one harm the other. A duopoly would be evident and really usefull to both. No one can beat Nintendo at their own game, so Sony needs to have competition or they will get complacent. I do agree that without Xbox disruptions like wanting to buy Activision, Zenimax, Nintendo(
)the market will be healtier. But we would need to see another company to try to compete, and IMHO any company would be like Xbox , but worse as they would not have the advantage of being already here that Xbox have. Can you imagine a Tencent console, or a Amazon one? So better the devil we know than another one.
Killjoy-NL
Member
Honestly, PC can replace Xbox easily, as can Playstation. So the Xbox demographic will be split across those two platforms.I do not consider PC a concurrent to Playstation and Nintendo. More of a side piece. With Sony not making a successor to the PS VITA and Nintendo not trying to have a powerful console since the Gamecube, I think that Sony and Nintendo will recognise that they target different audience and make it so no one harm the other. A duopoly would be evident and really usefull to both. No one can beat Nintendo at their own game, so Sony needs to have competition or they will get complacent. I do agree that without Xbox disruptions like wanting to buy Activision, Zenimax, Nintendo(
PC will run the same games (minus exclusives) at higher performance, Playstation will be more convenient and more attractive to a (more) casual demographic.
Nintendo has it's own demographic.
Ever since MS decided to release their games day 1 on PC, there is practically no reason for Xbox to exist, anyway.
And it shows if you look at sales an how Xbox is losing marketshare. People and gamers notice.
Last edited:
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
For PC to replace Xbox they would need to have a reason to compete with Playstation. Can you see games being exclusive to PC and not Playstation? From a user POV, yes there is not much difference between the two. But in the gaming market consoles are vastly different in terms of target audience, how much money can they give to peripherals and games, royalties etc. I do admit that since PC exist the Xbox console use is a lot less evident. But for me I didn't care about them before, so it did not change a lot outside of making games like Ori be more accessible to me than before. PC is not the prefered way to play sport games and some games that have a heavy console lineage like GTA( in terms of numbers, of course a PC is perfectly fine today for almost all games). Do you want xbox to go third party? Or for them to disappear? If they go third party then yes I can see them being on PC and continuing like before, with maybe selling branded Xbox PCs as a side activity. But them being gone would not make the PC a concurrent to Playstation and Nintendo IMHO.
Killjoy-NL
Member
like Warhammer: Total War and Escape from Tarkov?
Easily. Competition can come in many forms. PC vs console already is competition itself.
3rd party would make more sense. But I just have a problem with MS, not necessarily with Xbox.
Competition is good, but not the way they handle it.
Daneel Elijah
Gold Member
I loved games like FTL, and Rogue Legacy, Binding of Isaac, who did not get a console version until they got their first taste of success on PC, or never in FTL case. But outside of war games, that are historically a PC type of games, with k+m interface by default, and indies, that thrive better on Steam, most games have no reason not to be on consoles. I dunno, just consider some games as PC games first and others as consoles games and don't really think of them much beyond that. I may have to rethink about this a little.
I do agree that competition can be varied. Just that it would not be the same. Sony can have their walled garden and sell games on PC if they have no concurrence on the console front IMHO. But I have to admit that you made me think about it.
I agree with you about MS. I just hope that one day they try to compete like they did in the 360 days.
You have proof that Starfield didn't move consoles? Because last time I checked Series S...console that "nobody wanted" was sold out on Amazon UK.
Nobody knows which game will move consoles. Especially since we don't know if Hellblade 2, Avowed or South of Midnight will be great. But that's the beauty of gaming industry. You don't know what will sell. Is there somebody who knew how popular Horizon Zero Dawn will be after disaster that was Killzone Shadowfall? Did anybody expected that game to move consoles as much as it did?
One thing is for certain
Hellblade 2, Avowed, South of Midnight, Fable, Forza Horizon 6, Gears 6, new Doom game, Indiana Jones, Contraband etc. have way higher chance to sell consoles that Crackdown 3 and Recore had last gen. That's why I'm kinda certain that this gen will have way better second half then Xbox One gen.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah.
Sales-Age - Spain, Week 36: PS5 12K, Starfield 4K
Gamereactor Spain Week 36, 2023 (Sep 04 - Sep 10) Hardware PS5 ~12,000 NSW 3,300 X/S 1,200 PSVR2 100 Software (Retail) Starfield (X/S) ~4,000 / New NBA 2K24 (PS5) 2,200 / New Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (NSW) The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (NSW) Fae Farm (NSW): 1,100 / New GTA V...
Yeah.
Sales-Age - Spain, Week 36: PS5 12K, Starfield 4K
Gamereactor Spain Week 36, 2023 (Sep 04 - Sep 10) Hardware PS5 ~12,000 NSW 3,300 X/S 1,200 PSVR2 100 Software (Retail) Starfield (X/S) ~4,000 / New NBA 2K24 (PS5) 2,200 / New Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (NSW) The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (NSW) Fae Farm (NSW): 1,100 / New GTA V...www.neogaf.com
So you have data from one country, and you somehow extrapolated it for entire world?
Holy shit man. I saw few of your "analysis" in other threads, but you are bringing some "good stuff" even here.
I mean..I can do it too
Starfield drives two best sales weeks for Xbox Series X/S this year in the UK | VGC
Bethesda’s game appears to be a system seller for Xbox…
www.videogameschronicle.com
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
So you have data from one country, and you somehow extrapolated it for entire world?
Holy shit man. I saw few of your "analysis" in other threads, but you are bringing some "good stuff" even here.
I mean..I can do it too
Starfield drives two best sales weeks for Xbox Series X/S this year in the UK | VGC
Bethesda’s game appears to be a system seller for Xbox…
jm89
Member
Is it?
Price tracker shows it's been in stock for the last month. It normally goes dotted when it's out of stock.
Last edited:
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
Let's hope. Maybe it'll make them reconsider dropping out of the hardware game. If these leaks really highlight anything it's how bad Microsoft is for gaming as an industry.