I'm actually legit shook you agree with me, Eolz.
Lol. You know that I don't expect the game to be a failure, especially after the last trailers.
I just don't expect it to suddenly bring a new audience magically.
1M is perfectly doable in the west on PS4 alone (X1 won't add much, let's be honest, especially with the lack of crossplay). It's after that milestone that it becomes more complicated to predict and where people usually start to disagree.
It'll heavily depend on the marketing from Capcom (and Sony). They got most of the fans (even ones salty about the XX situation like me), but after that, it starts getting into SFV territory: can they fuck it up somehow for the hardcore (monetization, game after that, issues at launch, content at launch, etc), and will they be able to convince newer players to try it?
edit:
I'm not doubting that it will do a million in the west over time, because unless Capcom fucks something up beyond repair, doing less than what the games have been doing on just the 3DS in the same areas is virtually unfathomable, but I'm more interested in what it can do in as limited amount of time as this is looking to be release in time for. I know people are all up on having the PS4 fanbase to draw from, but that's still a really challenging number to set as a goal for that time period, especially when there's games like God of War that will be releasing right around the same time.
I see your point, but it's still a big franchise and a big name, even for those that never played it but usually look at games in multiple genres (aka more than GTA/COD/FIFA/etc).
800k in a month is really doable, it has a nice presentation and was pushed a bit by Sony too.
In terms of sales performance and speed, I think it'll be comparable to Nioh, where Sony pushed it in conferences and other communication stuff, but didn't care about it at launch (no physical LE, no real push on their side despite being exclusive, etc).
I honestly can't see it doing a million on PS4 and X1 combined in a month.
PC will be interesting to follow. I see it doing more than X1, but the speed will be linked to the port quality, price (since it's releasing later), and unique selling points (better graphics, unique features, etc).