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Next Gen: U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of DS over the next 5 years

I

Izzy

Banned
Article - Next Gen

Next Gen said:
U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of Nintendo DS over the next five years, according to a report released today.
SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.

Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.

Software unit sales will increase cumulatively from Year One's 70 million units to 122 million in Year 2, and over 200 million in Year Three.

SIG stated, "Sony will likely expand the addressable market for portable gaming devices with the PSP. As the class of gamers seeking console-like gaming grows, the PSP will be the only serious alternative to Nintendo portables. In time the variety and depth of games on the PSP could attract a larger demographic than even Nintendo portables."

It added, "Yet we must keep in mind that the PSP is Sony's first attempt and the launch has not been without problems. Hardware pricing is probably stifling PSP adoption, and ported game selection is limited."

SIG also points out that software revenue mix in calendar year 2005 will be Nintendo 58% / third parties 42% for DS, but Sony 24% / third parties 76% for PSP.
Click to expand...
 
I

Izzy

Banned
The most interesting bit - aside from the 5 year prediction:

SIG also points out that software revenue mix in calendar year 2005 will be Nintendo 58% / third parties 42% for DS, but Sony 24% / third parties 76% for PSP.
Click to expand...
 
S

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
Next gen really hates nintendo it seems.

edit: yes i know this isnt a ng article
 
M

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Error2k4 said:
magic words: price drop, redesign, pokemon
Click to expand...
They didn't get the memo :lol Oh, and add Revolution, Mario 2D, Metroïd, Brain Training, Tetris, Zelda to the list of magic words
 
D

D3VI0US

Member
The PSP is a machine with value, the cheaper it gets the more attractive it gets to just about any consumer. It's they type of machine that has longevity because it's so high tech right now. DS sales will drop offand so will Nintendo's handheld marketshare once PSP ramps up but by then Nintendo will probably have something better up their sleeves. I know I'd like a Virtual Console in my pocket.
 
J

jarrod

Banned
SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.
Click to expand...
ORLY? Lemme guess, they used "factory shipments" to get PSP at 13 million and "sell-in" to nail DS at 13 million? Someone's been talking to Phil Harrison?
 
D

DaCocoBrova

Finally bought a new PSP, but then pushed the demon onto someone else. Jesus.
The problem withthe PSP is that the bulk of people that have one don't use 50% of its features. They just buy UMDs and shit.
 
D

drumlord

Member
U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of Nintendo DS over the next five years, according to a report released today. SIG has made shit up after consulting with a magic crystal ball, a hermit, and a boatload of weed.
Click to expand...

Fixed. Actually, I could have left it as "compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life" because that's a joke in itself. 1) It's sales estimates...estimates. 2) They're taking something as inaccurate and speculative as estimates and actually combining them making them even more inaccurate. and 3) It doesn't say whose estimates these are in the first place.
 
J

Jeff-DSA

Member
Making these sort of predictions or reporting on them makes one look stoopid. Besides, predicting doom for the DS has never proven to be anything but an appointment to eat crow later.
 
J

jarrod

Banned
drumlord said:
Fixed. Actually, I could have left it as "compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life" because that's a joke in itself. 1) It's sales estimates...estimates. 2) They're taking something as inaccurate and speculative as estimates and actually combining them making them even more inaccurate. and 3) It doesn't say whose estimates these are in the first place.
Click to expand...
Not only that but their current target information (on which these estimates is likely based) is "factually incorrect". DS and PSP have not both moved around 13 million units by the end of 2006. Period.
 
D

DaCocoBrova

Finally bought a new PSP, but then pushed the demon onto someone else. Jesus.
Is there a 'killer app' on either?

I guess GTA serves that purpose, but I haven't seen anyone running out to get a PSP to play that game.
 
E

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
using sell-in and factory shipments
Click to expand...
Stopped reading there. What the fuck is the deal with next-gen.biz?

EDIT: Did read further and it just reads like sarcasm from start to end.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
I have a portable DVD player, I have two MP3 players, I have 2 handhelds.


What I don't have are an abundance of great PSP games, and I don't see any available.


My point being ... when it comes time to buy a new portable (probably this Christmas), I will be buying the machine with more games ... that machine is the DS, right now.
 
G

GitarooMan

Member
Like someone else said, the more interesting question is the lifespan of DS vs. lifespan of PSP. I still think within the next three years we'll see a more powerful Gameboy successor that will set Nintendo up to compete with PSP from 2008-9 and beyond. At least that's what I hope, I don't want to be playing those dodgy 3D graphics on DS in 2009, maybe that's just me though.

Frankfurter said:
I stopped reading here
Click to expand...

Why? The DS is slightly ahead of the PSP in U.S. sales, that's not wrong, although worldwide it's certainly not that close

EDIT: I see it's talking worldwide in the article, and that's not really that close, my mistake
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Jeff-DSA said:
Making these sort of predictions or reporting on them makes one look stoopid.
Click to expand...
Whether these particular predictions are particularly sound or not, companies do pay for market forecasting like this. After all, publishers don't decide on a whim (at least, not all of them ;) ) where their development budget is going to go over the next few years.

These projections may be overly bullish for the PSP but if their basic rationale is still sound, then one could revise down their projections and still see that the PSP is sound investment over the next 5 years.

Besides, predicting doom for the DS has never proven to be anything but an appointment to eat crow later.
Click to expand...
Good thing they didn't actually do that then, eh? It'd be a strange world where its "doom" for the DS to sell 13 million in its 1st year, 22m in its 2nd and 28m in its 3rd, with tens of millions sales projected to still come after that.
 
J

jarrod

Banned
GitarooMan said:
Like someone else said, the more interesting question is the lifespan of DS vs. lifespan of PSP.
Click to expand...
That's true. DS will royally spank PSP over the next 3 years, but it's possible with PSP's inevitably longer shelf life that it may catch up in the end... outside Japan maybe anyway. :p
 
K

Kroole

Member
GitarooMan said:
Why? The DS is slightly ahead of the PSP in U.S. sales, that's not wrong, although worldwide it's certainly not close
Click to expand...

It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.
Click to expand...

They are not talking about just the US.
 
xaosslug

xaosslug

Member
Error2k4 said:
Don't think so.

magic words: price drop, redesign, pokemon
Click to expand...

Stranger things have happened.

Magic words: Pricedrop, redesign (hd, bigger battery), GT mobile, FF:VII Before Crisis Core

lol
 
C

capslock

Is jealous of Matlock's emoticon
GitarooMan said:
Why? The DS is slightly ahead of the PSP in U.S. sales, that's not wrong, although worldwide it's certainly not that close
Click to expand...


The article doesn't say 'slightly ahead in the US', it says 'slightly ahead' period.
 
J

jarrod

Banned
GitarooMan said:
Why? The DS is slightly ahead of the PSP in U.S. sales, that's not wrong, although worldwide it's certainly not that close
Click to expand...
Worldwide sell-through as of the end of 2005...

Nintendo DS

JP: 5.650.000
NA: 4.100.000
EU: 3.500.000
AP: 500.000?

TOTAL: 13.750.000


PSP
JP: 2.600.000
NA: 3.900.000
EU: 2.350.000
AP: 500.000?

TOTAL: 9.350.000


...there's no concievable way to say that both platforms have performed about equally. DS has actually increased it's lead since last March. It's leading PSP in every major market, and it has a higher profile release schedule on the horizon. I dunno... why not dismiss this article? Does it actually bring anything of merit to the discussion, outside inherently flawed estimates based off inherently wrong information?

You'd think Izzy would be smart enough to avoid this pile, despite the obvious draw. ;)
 
A

Amused_To_Death

Member
Next Gen not the only one

As for other platforms, Wallace believes Sony will also cut the price of the PSP--a move that will lead it to pull ahead of the DS in overall sales. "The next-generation handheld installed base should also start to represent sizable numbers in 2007, as we expect the PSP and DS installed bases to reach 15 million units and 10 million units that year, respectively."
Click to expand...

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6142885.html
 
J

Jeff-DSA

Member
VeryHungryCaterpillar said:
? That's a weird statement. Me no understand. Am confused.
Click to expand...

Just remember this: Drinky Crow hates all things Nintendo regardless of quality or situation.

His posting habits should never confuse you ever again.
 
C

callous

Member
jarrod said:
I dunno... why not dismiss this article? Does it actually bring anything of merit to the discussion, outside inherently flawed estimates based off inherently wrong information?
Click to expand...

No, it doesn't.

I wish Next Generation themselves would have commented on this very flawed ... guesswork instead of just printing it as is. I'm disappointed.
 
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