• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Next Gen: U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of DS over the next 5 years

Izzy

Banned
jarrod said:
Software seems to have taken a backseat, like with PS2 and DS early on. Yes there's desirable games on PSP, but that pretty clearly not the main draw... it's prime appeal rests in it's high end performace/display, multumedia functions and promise that the PlayStation brand brings. Software might be a distant 4th on the list.



They aren't "GAF estimations" though... they're NPD or MCV or Mediacreate or Famitsu or whoever. And sure they only give insight, but it's better insight than whatever sources this article used obviously. Unified worldwide sales tracking would be just as prone to the same flaws as these sources too anyway, what you're saying is basically there's really no way to get any "facts" on how many units DS or PSP have moved into consumer hands.

Say jarrod, what's the PSP HW LTD number for Europe - and where did you get it from? Chart Track, ELSPA, GfK, Screen Digest?
 

jarrod

Banned
Pimpbaa said:
What does the price of the unit have to do with the quality of the games? If the priced dropped, more would get it, and developers would be more willing to invest more money into it due to the larger userbase. The fact that it's selling well despite such a high price would indicate sales would go through the roof if the price were a more reasonable level.
It's selling well at that high price thanks to the high end display/chipset though. The two are instrinsically related and scale accordingly. Saying PSP's "selling well despite such a high price" holds a bout as much weight as saying the same for DS "despite such a low end chipset/display".
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.

DS sales will surpass 5 million units in Japan during 2006 and they predicted worldwide sales of only 9 million units this year? :lol :lol
Next year will be interesting to come back and read these bullshits for some fun. :D
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
mj1108 said:
Just like XBots -- deny Japan exists!


HA! Whose denying Japan's existence? The PSP outsold the Xbox in Japan in it's first few months. :lol
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
ethelred said:
Neither am I, actually -- I own both a PSP and a DS, I passed on the N64 (which I still consider to be an absolute POS) in favor of the PSX, and my PS2 games dwarf those of my GameCube. However, I've got five games for the PSP right now (despite having tried more) versus 14 for the NDS and I'm vastly more satisified with the DS games. In fact, I haven't really enjoyed any of the PSP games very much, and I look at the upcoming lineup and see only a few compelling titles. I can't say the same for the DS.

I'm not saying it's the worst library ever, just that right now, I think the DS's game quality is much, much higher. That's fluid, of course, and is open to changing throughout the year (and the year after).
Weirdly being in the exact same situation as you, I share your feeling. But I advise you not to say things like that on GAF.
 
Why is Brain Training lumped in as a "non-game" anyway?

It's definitely a game ... it's basically becoming what Tetris was to the Game Boy IMO.

I think that's a big part of its appeal -- it's a game adults can play (like Tetris), without "fantasy" elements ... a lot of adults just don't like anything fantasy related even Playstation stuff is juvenile and silly to them.

But things like Tetris, Solataire, Blackjack, etc. they will play. Brain Training falls into that categorey.

But it's definitely a game, with tasks to complete and scores to compete for.
 

jarrod

Banned
Izzy said:
Say jarrod, what's the PSP HW LTD number for Europe - and where did you get it from? Chart Track, ELSPA, GfK, Screen Digest?
I've heard 2.350.000 as the highest estimate so far... came from some NOE employees. Got anything better? :)
 
soundwave05 said:
DS sales have surged in both North America and Europe since the release of Nintendogs -- that's a fact.

That's one way to put it. You could also say that sales in NA and Europe were complete dogshit before that time. As is completely dead. So, yes, they have surged since then.

soundwave05 said:
The DS is the one that's really raised its game since August 2005 in both North America and Europe, I think some people are forgetting this.

The PSP caused most of its damage to Nintendo in North America during its launch period in spring and into summer when Nintendo didn't have many games for the DS.

Uh, I seem to remember the PSP outselling the DS in the last half of 2005 (by just a little bit), which was after the launch. Add up the past several months, the DS barely outsold the PSP in those months that it did happen.

We could also throw out other facts:

1) PSP outsold the DS by almost a million units in 2005.

2) Third Party DS software hasn't sold diddly squat compared to the PSP in the US. Look at the top 10's of each systems LTD sales.


The US is essentially a tie, and that's despite the DS have two holiday seasons and a number of months head start. We'll have to see how 2006 shakes out before we make any determinations of who will actually take the lead. My money is on the DS btw.
 

Pimpbaa

Member
jarrod said:
It's selling well at that high price thanks to the high end display/chipset though. The two are instrinsically related and scale accordingly. Saying PSP's "selling well despite such a high price" holds a bout as much weight as saying the same for DS "despite such a low end chipset/display".

The illogical ramblings of a nintendo fan. Can't you grasp the concept that game machines sell better when they go down in price (especially in the portable market where before portables were cheaper than consoles)? The PSP can only benefit from going down in price. To say otherwise is illogical spinning.
 

Ponn

Banned
soundwave05 said:
Why is Brain Training lumped in as a "non-game" anyway?

It's definitely a game ... it's basically becoming what Tetris was to the Game Boy IMO.

But it's definitely a game, with tasks to complete and scores to compete for.

It's edutainment. And if that's the kind of gaming the Japanese are looking for and the so called "bored with gaming" clique are looking for then have some fun with that but keep it over on your side of the fence.
 

Izzy

Banned
jarrod said:
I've heard 2.350.000 as the highest estimate so far... came from some NOE employees. Got anything better? :)

Like sc said - official numbers will become public soon. :)
 
jarrod said:
I've heard 2.350.000 as the highest estimate so far... came from some NOE employees. Got anything better? :)

"Highest Estimate so far" :lol

There are higher estimates out there, by a good bit. That's one of the lowest estimates I've seen. Although, it's obviously got some "high confidence" in some quarters.
 
sonycowboy said:
That's one way to put it. You could also say that sales in NA and Europe were complete dogshit before that time. As is completely dead. So, yes, they have surged since then.



Uh, I seem to remember the PSP outselling the DS in the last half of 2005 (by just a little bit), which was after the launch. Add up the past several months, the DS barely outsold the PSP in those months that it did happen.

We could also throw out other facts:

1) PSP outsold the DS by almost a million units in 2005.

2) Third Party DS software hasn't sold diddly squat compared to the PSP in the US. Look at the top 10's of each systems LTD sales.


The US is essentially a tie, and that's despite the DS have two holiday seasons and a number of months head start. We'll have to see how 2006 shakes out before we make any determinations of who will actually take the lead. My money is on the DS btw.


So if DS sales are so poor in North America ... but they basically equalled or slightly surpassed the PSP for the last 4 months of the year (fall/holiday rush) ... what happened to PSP sales?

Why weren't they able to continue to hang on to a large lead over the DS?
 

Pimpbaa

Member
soundwave05 said:
Why is Brain Training lumped in as a "non-game" anyway?

It's definitely a game ... it's basically becoming what Tetris was to the Game Boy IMO.

I think that's a big part of its appeal -- it's a game adults can play (like Tetris), without "fantasy" elements ... a lot of adults just don't like anything fantasy related even Playstation stuff is juvenile and silly to them.

But things like Tetris, Solataire, Blackjack, etc. they will play. Brain Training falls into that categorey.

But it's definitely a game, with tasks to complete and scores to compete for.

Because it's being played by non-gamers. No reasonable gamer would want the success of their system to come from such a game (or nintendogs). Because it could diminish the amount of games that they really want for it.
 

P90

Member
I don't get how these analysts come up with stuff for 5 years down the road. Both handhelds will probably be replaced by other units before then. year long trends indicate that the PSP will NOT dwarf the DS. I'm glad these guys don't manage my finances.
 
Ponn01 said:
It's edutainment. And if that's the kind of gaming the Japanese are looking for and the so called "bored with gaming" clique are looking for then have some fun with that but keep it over on your side of the fence.


I don't think it has anything to do with people "bored with gaming" ... this is a game like Tetris which can appeal to adults.

Believe it or not, a lot of people find even games like Metal Gear Solid and Splinter Cell to be silly and childish, especailly a lot of older adults.
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
sonycowboy said:
They're obviously incorrect, but there aren't any "facts" out there publically. There are the GAF estimations, but I don't think any news source should include them in their articles. Until we get actual worldwide sales tracking (which is actually being pursued), all we have are the hardware manufacturers PR and cobbled together sales estimates. They give some visibility into sales, but shouldn't be considered "factual" either.
sonycowboy meets Peter Moore
and then
sonycowboy: these are just estimates that made by some inexpert research groups such as NPD, M-C, Famitsu, Charttrack, ... .
Actually PSP is ahead of DS in all major territories by large margin, FACT.

GAF am Believe :D
 
soundwave05 said:
So if DS sales are so poor in North America ... but they basically equalled or slightly surpassed the PSP for the last 4 months of the year (fall/holiday rush) ... what happened to PSP sales?

Why weren't they able to continue to hang on to a large lead over the DS?


Where did I say DS sales "are so poor in North America"? I just think when sales are essentially equal between the two, that it seems a bit odd to refer to one as "surging" and being "the only one that's raised it's game", when it was matched point for point by the PSP.
 

ethelred

Member
Pimpbaa said:
Because it's being played by non-gamers. No reasonable gamer would want the success of their system to come from such a game (or nintendogs). Because it could diminish the amount of games that they really want for it.

So bitter, so very, very, very bitter. You can just taste the metallic flavor of defeat, you poor thing.

No one is forcing me to buy games I don't want to play, but unlike you, I'm happy to see gaming expand into demographics other than "early twenties male," because I think it'll lead to a broader, more versatile industry, and a better industry, and it will also benefit the games that I like to play, albeit indirectly. Growth and wider acceptance of gaming is a good thing, not a bad thing, but you're just too bitter to accept that people out there may like games that you personally do not enjoy. Well, too bad, they do; the industry will grow because of that, gamers will grow as a wider audiences, and many of those new gamers will adapt to enjoy other types of games besides those which brought them into the market in the first place.

This is very obvious right now in the Japanese market where we can easily see that the success of the bitterly named "non-games" is also boosting the success and popularity of more traditional games on the system. But whatever, keep complaining about the non-games that are ruining your hobby.
 
sonycowboy said:
Where did I say DS sales "are so poor in North America"? I just think when sales are essentially equal between the two, that it seems a bit odd to refer to one as "surging" and being "the only one that's raised it's game", when it was matched point for point by the PSP.

Point remains, why wasn't Sony able to hold onto the lead they had over the DS in North America for the later portion (and most important) segment of the year?

If PSP sold on par with the DS in Japan for the next four months or even slightly better, people would go crazy.

I think its fair to say DS sales have surged and Nintendo is starting to find their groove in North America. They probably would have taken Dec. 2005 too, if they hadn't discontinued the Nintendogs bundle (wtf they did that is beyond me).
 
kia said:
sonycowboy meets Peter Moore
and then
sonycowboy: these are just estimates that made by some inexpert research groups such as NPD, M-C, Famitsu, Charttrack, ... .
Actually PSP is ahead of DS in all major territories by large margin, FACT.

GAF am Believe :D

Oh, you mean the US NPD + Chartrack + Media Create + (lets extrapolate the rest of the world) numbers?

OK. I put tremendous confidence in the tracking systems (unlike, say Nintendo), but we don't have worldwide tracking out there, so the numbers that GAF invents aren't realy high on my list of sources. I do think they have some validity, but it's humorous how some folks are quoting them as gospel at this point.
 

Farmboy

Member
soundwave05 said:
GBA is still >>> DS and PSP in the US, but those sales will swing moreso towards DS in 2006, as Nintendo cuts the DS price to $99.99. And $99.99 is really a big deal, moreso than $199.99.

I believe this is partially correct. One of the reasons that the DS' lead over the PSP in Japan is so big is because the country seems to have adopted it as the GBA's successor -- GBA sales have plummeted fast in Japan while they remain higher than those of the DS and PSP in the US. And surely, with a price drop and dedicated new Pokémon and Super Mario games, the DS looks like it has the inside track to 'inheret' GBA sales in the west as well.

Still, it's hard to say. GBA sales are slowing down in the west as well, even though they haven't quite been supplanted as vigorously as they have in Japan. The market is already 'moving on' in the west as well -- and it's much more of a split decision than it is in Japan.
 
GBA sales have slowed in North America compared to 2004 ... but that's to be expected for an aging platform.

It's still selling far above either DS and PSP in North America.

I absolutely agree with the comment about Japan -- in Japan, they've embraced the DS as the GBA successor pretty much.

In North America this can't happen until DS is $99 at least (and a smaller redesign certainly would help also). A lot of people simply refuse to buy a handheld in North America unless its $99.
 

Ponn

Banned
soundwave05 said:
I don't think it has anything to do with people "bored with gaming" ... this is a game like Tetris which can appeal to adults.


It's nothing like Tetris, stop using that comparison its bullshit. Crossword puzzles and sudoku appeal to adults too but no one is going to compare those to Tetris.

Pimpbaa above put it actually quite nicely.

Believe it or not, a lot of people find even games like Metal Gear Solid and Splinter Cell to be silly and childish, especailly a lot of older adults.

That's nice, and I would prefer the market not be swayed by their decisons either. If the future of gaming were to be Brain Training and Nintendogs I would be finding a new hobby right away. Cheer for their numbers all you want, but don't be whining later if it comes back to bite you in the ass.
 
soundwave05 said:
GBA sales have slowed in North America compared to 2004 ... but that's to be expected for an aging platform.

It's still selling far above either DS and PSP in North America.

Far above?

Certainly, above by a decent amount, but the PSP sold 3.63M units in 2005 vs 4.26M GBA's.

The GBA fell a huge amount in 2005 vs 2004, although certainly not like it dropped in japan. Of course, the GBA has always done better in the US vs everywhere else as it's got > 50% of all units sold here.
 

Pimpbaa

Member
ethelred said:
So bitter, so very, very, very bitter. You can just taste the metallic flavor of defeat, you poor thing.

No one is forcing me to buy games I don't want to play, but unlike you, I'm happy to see gaming expand into demographics other than "early twenties male," because I think it'll lead to a broader, more versatile industry, and a better industry, and it will also benefit the games that I like to play, albeit indirectly. Growth and wider acceptance of gaming is a good thing, not a bad thing, but you're just too bitter to accept that people out there may like games that you personally do not enjoy. Well, too bad, they do; the industry will grow because of that, gamers will grow as a wider audiences, and many of those new gamers will adapt to enjoy other types of games besides those which brought them into the market in the first place.

You'll be bitter too when they stop or slow down producing games like castlevania or popular nintendo franchises on the DS due to them not being it's target demographic.
 

P90

Member
Ponn01 said:
That's nice, and I would prefer the market not be swayed by their decisons either. If the future of gaming were to be Brain Training and Nintendogs I would be finding a new hobby right away. Cheer for their numbers all you want, but don't be whining later if it comes back to bite you in the ass.

Yeah we need more 50 cent games not non games. j/k

There is room for all genres. Big sellers pay the way for niche games.
 
Ponn01 said:
It's nothing like Tetris, stop using that comparison its bullshit. Crossword puzzles and sudoku appeal to adults too but no one is going to compare those to Tetris.

Pimpbaa above put it actually quite nicely.



That's nice, and I would prefer the market not be swayed by their decisons either. If the future of gaming were to be Brain Training and Nintendogs I would be finding a new hobby right away. Cheer for their numbers all you want, but don't be whining later if it comes back to bite you in the ass.


I'm saying in terms of appeal ... it definitely can be similar to what Tetris was to Game Boy.

The later half of your comment just shows your complete lack of vision ... gaming isn't an either/or thing.

It's like a movie critic saying "oh my God! If American Pie is the future of filmmaking, count me out!" ... well how about games for people who don't want to fucking take 2 hours just to play properly or watch 30 minutes of cinematics before the game starts?

Back in the NES days, you could just pick up and play a game and it was the game's job to hook you and get you playing from minute 1 ... not a "oh wait ... it gets cool ... just wait ... hey look isn't that cool ... its like the Matrix!" type bullshit IMO which has definitely narrowed the appeal of gaming as a whole.
 

P90

Member
sonycowboy said:
Far above?

Certainly, above by a decent amount, but the PSP sold 3.63M units in 2005 vs 4.26M GBA's.

The GBA fell a huge amount in 2005 vs 2004, although certainly not like it dropped in japan. Of course, the GBA has always done better in the US vs everywhere else as it's got > 50% of all units sold here.


The December NPD is out? Where did you get your numbers?
 
sonycowboy said:
Oh, you mean the US NPD + Chartrack + Media Create + (lets extrapolate the rest of the world) numbers?

OK. I put tremendous confidence in the tracking systems (unlike, say Nintendo), but we don't have worldwide tracking out there, so the numbers that GAF invents aren't realy high on my list of sources. I do think they have some validity, but it's humorous how some folks are quoting them as gospel at this point.

The best numbers you're going to get for Europe are going to be from the manufacturers. There's just no-one omnipresent enough to have a massive reach outside of the three main countries - France, UK and Germany. We've got Chart Track for here in the UK, and I beleive NPD are dipping their toes in that now. GfK are pretty well placed to cover the big three... but the full EU? Accurately?

Accurate worldwide tracking is a ways off imo. The manufacturers KNOW what they're selling to retailers, and in some countries the retailers are telling them either directly or through re-orders what they are selling onto customers.

I don't see the big deal with the NOE numbers. Sony say they 'sell' 10 million and GAF is all over their jock - why can't NOE retort with what they 'sell'? It just seems like selective levels of scrutiny. I suppose its just cos its so close everywhere but Japan, that we have to look closer to assertain a winner... but surely, being close, there isn't a winner yet.
 

Pimpbaa

Member
soundwave05 said:
I'm saying in terms of appeal ... it definitely can be similar to what Tetris was to Game Boy.

The later half of your comment just shows your complete lack of vision ... gaming isn't an either/or thing.

It's like a movie critic saying "oh my God! If American Pie is the future of filmmaking, count me out!" ... well how about games for people who don't want to fucking take 2 hours just to play properly or watch 30 minutes of cinematics before the game starts?

Back in the NES days, you could just pick up and play a game and it was the game's job to hook you and get you playing from minute 1 ... not a "oh wait ... it gets cool ... just wait ... hey look isn't that cool ... its like the Matrix!" type bullshit IMO which has definitely narrowed the appeal of gaming as a whole.

But if American Pie was one of the few movies (the others being similar in who their target audience was) that did really good. Wouldn't you be worried about the future of movies?
 
Pimpbaa said:
It's kinda easy actually, since it seems they do not like games any more, only non-games.

Yeah, you're right.

Mario & Luigi 2, Mario Kart DS, Kingdom Hearts 2, Monster Hunter, Pokemon Dungeon, Front Mission 5. They just hate all games.

Idiot.
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
sonycowboy said:
Far above?

Certainly, above by a decent amount, but the PSP sold 3.63M units in 2005 vs 4.26M GBA's.

The GBA fell a huge amount in 2005 vs 2004, although certainly not like it dropped in japan. Of course, the GBA has always done better in the US vs everywhere else as it's got > 50% of all units sold here.
Its a little bit unfair. Actually after the launch period of PSP, GBA outsold it by large margin every month except December.
 
Pimpbaa said:
But if American Pie was one of the few movies (the others being similar in who their target audience was) that did really good. Wouldn't you be worried about the future of movies?


There is no singular movie that is the future of movies ... that's the point. Variety just makes the entire industry grow as a whole.
 

P90

Member
Pimpbaa said:
But if American Pie was one of the few movies (the others being similar in who their target audience was) that did really good. Wouldn't you be worried about the future of movies?

That isn't reality and neither is non-games the only thing that is selling on the DS. So, no worries.
 

Grug

Member
The only time I used my PSP recently was to view a Castlevania DoS soul collecting faq while I played my DS.

I kid you not.

I find the PSP utterly uncompelling right now. Homebrew is its saving grace.
 
And again, I don't feel like Brain Training is a non-game at all.

It's a puzzle game.

It absolutely has more in common with Tetris than it does with Nintendogs.
 
The absolute undeniable FACT is that the DS is compelling to pepole because it has a WIDE variety of games and what you call "non-games".

But either way they are both VIDEO games. Different kinds, but still video games.

So people can complain about "non-games" selling in Japan, even if they're GOOD non-games. Just remember that in America, 50 Cent: Bulletproof just sold one million copies.
 

Pimpbaa

Member
I <3 Katamari said:
Yeah, you're right.

Mario & Luigi 2, Mario Kart DS, Kingdom Hearts 2, Monster Hunter, Pokemon Dungeon, Front Mission 5. They just hate all games.

Idiot.

Lets not forget the existence of all the non games in the top charts. It's only a matter of time before traditional games drop off altogether in japan at the rate it's going.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
All impressions I read about Brain Training say it is fun as hell so I don't get the hate it receives here
let me guess... oh yes it comes from the usual Nintendo haters
 
Pimpbaa said:
Lets not forget the existence of all the non games in the top charts. It's only a matter of time before traditional games drop off altogether in japan at the rate it's going.

Um, no. It ISN'T a mattre of time. You'll ALWAYS see traditoinal games popular in Japan. KH2 is selling better than KH1. Traditional games will ALWAYS be there. You are a moron.
 

Kroole

Member
Pimpbaa said:
Lets not forget the existence of all the non games in the top charts. It's only a matter of time before traditional games drop off altogether in japan at the rate it's going.

But you see, they haven't. Mario & Luigi 2 is selling more rapidly than the first one despite lower userbase and the same has happened to Mario Kart DS. And I'll be surprised if Pokemon DS won't sell more than the one for GBA. Fact is DS games are selling good period.
 

Ponn

Banned
P90 said:
Yeah we need more 50 cent games not non games. j/k

There is room for all genres. Big sellers pay the way for niche games.

I see a lot of Nfans throwing this up as a sort of insult to American Gamers but it's been universally panned here and not doing GTA numbers so what is the point really? It's not carrying a system like Nintendogs and Brain Training are.

The later half of your comment just shows your complete lack of vision ... gaming isn't an either/or thing.

Please don't start with that "you just have lack of vision" crap and the holier than thou attitude.

Just as the above quote reflected a top selling game creates clones. When companies are going to make a game they all want to make money. Now do a poll here over the holidays and Castlevania DoS would be at the top of lists. Compared to Nintendogs and Brain Training though the sell through was not so great. Now when companies are looking at what to do which one are they going to take more into consideration? FPS's sell very well on Xbox so guess what it's known for, GTA sold well on PS2 so guess what you keep seeing. No i'm not stupid and realize you do see other games on systems or else I wouldn't have either a Xbox or PS2 because truthfully I dislike just about all those games.

It's like a movie critic saying "oh my God! If American Pie is the future of filmmaking, count me out!" ... well how about games for people who don't want to fucking take 2 hours just to play properly or watch 30 minutes of cinematics before the game starts?

Back in the NES days, you could just pick up and play a game and it was the game's job to hook you and get you playing from minute 1 ... not a "oh wait ... it gets cool ... just wait ... hey look isn't that cool ... its like the Matrix!" type bullshit IMO which has definitely narrowed the appeal of gaming as a whole.

And you just said I have a lack of vision? That's a very narrow and niche view of the market. Your American Pie refrence doesn't even make sense. Thankfully one group doesn't sway the whole industry but if sales are any indication the DS might be swayed by a group I just don't agree with. Thankfully I have other choices if it goes that route, but you asked why they are called "non-games" and I gave you an answer. If it's not the answer you were looking for, well, tough. Deal with it and enjoy your non-games, if you really do then it shouldn't matter to you what people think.
 
Top Bottom