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Next Gen: U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of DS over the next 5 years

Mook1e

Member
biggreenmachine said:
Exactly, The future of portable video is not disc based (UMD), just like 5 years ago the future of portable audio was not disc based (Minidisc anyone?) Sony is wrong with the UMD for movies. Devices with bigger screens and harddrive storage to transfer real DVDs too are the future of portable video and will be the reason why the PSP eventually focuses its market on gaming.
That statement is too funny given the success of UMD movies and their incredibly high profit margin. :D
Sony - "If UMD is wrong....
I say if UMD is wrong...
I don't wanna be right!"
 

Mook1e

Member
kaizoku said:
DS won't go away for awhile, if anything it will get a a step up like DS SP or something, still the DS though innit? Haven't come close to fully exploring the systems potential yet.
And this has what to do with the original article which stated multi-million unit sales of DS?
No one's said DS is going away.
 

biggreenmachine

The bleeding edge of news reporting...
Mook1e said:
That statement is too funny given the success of UMD movies and their incredibly high profit margin. :D
Sony - "If UMD is wrong....
I say if UMD is wrong...
I don't wanna be right!"

I dont think they are doing that well, what a few hundred thousand combined? Not even as much as 1 top selling DS game. People buy a PSP and get a movie or 2 so thats not really a surprise. Long term, I think they will decline as devices like Ipod photo and others take the market completely.
 

kaizoku

I'm not as deluded as I make myself out to be
Mook1e said:
And this has what to do with the original article which stated multi-million unit sales of DS?
No one's said DS is going away.

biggreenmachine kind of said the DS won't be around in 5 years time.....in bold text too.
 

Mook1e

Member
kaizoku said:
biggreenmachine kind of said the DS won't be around in 5 years time.....in bold text too.
No, biggreenmachine said the DS wouldn't be in it's current form in 5 years. That = redesign
 

Mook1e

Member
biggreenmachine said:
I dont think they are doing that well, what a few hundred thousand combined? Not even as much as 1 top selling DS game. People buy a PSP and get a movie or 2 so thats not really a surprise. Long term, I think they will decline as devices like Ipod photo and others take the market completely.
Think (and look) again.
They had shipped over 4.3 million UMD movies way back in July.
 

Izzy

Banned
biggreenmachine said:
I dont think they are doing that well, what a few hundred thousand combined? Not even as much as 1 top selling DS game. People buy a PSP and get a movie or 2 so thats not really a surprise. Long term, I think they will decline as devices like Ipod photo and others take the market completely.

Link

August 31, 2005 - 10:46 EST

Hollywood (CA) - At the Entertainment Media Expo in Hollywood California, Sony executives touted the success of their Universial Media Disc (UMD), specifically movie UMDs. Millions of these 2.3 inch-diameter discs that hold either movies or games have been sold to PlayStation Portable (PSP) owners. Sony believes that movies will make more than 60 percent of UMD sales in the near future.

The UMD looks like Sony's at least in the US unpopular MiniDisc, but appearances can be deceiving. Inside the rigid shell sits a dual-layer single-sided disc that holds 1.8 GByte of information. Videostored on the media is encoded in MPEG-4 format. While some consumers have complained about the proprietary format of MiniDiscs and UMDs, the vast majority don't seem to care, as evidenced by recent sales figures.

Sony estimates that they have already sold 9 million games on UMD and 8.2 million movies. Current manufacturing lines are stretched to the max - Bob Hurley, with Sony DADC, says that Sony is churning out 200,000 UMDs a day and future capacity is expected to be 500,000 per day.

"Tiger Woods Golf is my personal favorite [game], but video has been surprisingly good to us," says Hurley. In a few years Sony expect videos to be more than 60 percent of all UMD sales, with an expected 130 million UMDs being sold in 2008.

While Hurley said that UMDs are protected with 128-bit AES encryption, ripped games and movies are already appearing on popular P2P networks. In April 2005, just one month after the PSP was launched, pirate groups managed to break the encryption and complete instructions are easily found on the Internet.

Since Sony does not sell blank UMD discs to consumers, the copied games/videos must be transferred to a Memory Stick or viewed on a computer.

And that was back in August, way before the Xmas season.
 

jarrod

Banned
Too bad we don't get any sort of tracking on UMD Video... I usually find more UMD Videos on shelves than DS and PSP games combined. I wonder how many of those 8.2 million units made it into consumer hands?
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
biggreenmachine said:
Exactly, The future of portable video is not disc based (UMD), just like 5 years ago the future of portable audio was not disc based (Minidisc anyone?) Sony is wrong with the UMD for movies. Devices with bigger screens and harddrive storage to transfer real DVDs too are the future of portable video and will be the reason why the PSP eventually focuses its market on gaming.
PSP has a flash drive media reader too, don't forget, it isn't solely reliant on UMD for content. This future of portable video you speak of is only just getting started now and the devices with the bigger screens and hdds are still very expensive. While we wait for those to come down to more market friendly prices, so too will the cost of memory stick media and so too will the cost of the PSP. The PSP is more than capable of making the transition to a future where more video content is downloaded/transferred than bought pre-packaged in stores.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
PSP has a flash drive media reader too, don't forget, it isn't solely reliant on UMD for content. This future of portable video you speak of is only just getting started now and the devices with the bigger screens and hdds are still very expensive. While we wait for those to come down to more market friendly prices, so too will the cost of memory stick media and so too will the cost of the PSP. The PSP is more than capable of making the transition to a future where more video content is downloaded/transferred than bought pre-packaged in stores.

indeed - lets just hope that Sony connect content is well priced and that you can get US content in Japan! :D

I don't see a huge price cut coming, but i think they'll reduce the price of the gigapack. They need that pack to push the download stategy. But cheaper PSPs would be awesome.
 
kaching said:
PSP has a flash drive media reader too, don't forget, it isn't solely reliant on UMD for content. This future of portable video you speak of is only just getting started now and the devices with the bigger screens and hdds are still very expensive. While we wait for those to come down to more market friendly prices, so too will the cost of memory stick media and so too will the cost of the PSP. The PSP is more than capable of making the transition to a future where more video content is downloaded/transferred than bought pre-packaged in stores.

While this may be true, if the PSP is successful, I'd expect to see a "PSP 2" that played the same games and movies that had a micro drive. Drives are getting tinier and taking less power, and if the market for 20GB+ video players takes root, I imagine this is what Sony will do.
 

Mook1e

Member
I <3 Katamari said:
They also "estimated" they would sell 6 million PSPs this Christmas.
If they are talking about difficulties producing enough UMDs to resupply their stocks, their estimates (in this case) were probably pretty accurate
 

Shaheed79

dabbled in the jelly
Mook1e said:
Um, yeah.
Monster hunter PSP is also the best looking PSP game in Japan and it's a portable version of a PS2 game. There goes that example.
And if you think that because Sony approves the games means they are forcing people to make their "BEST PS2 games on the PSP" you are wrong.

wth? MH PSP is killing the PS2 version because it's design is just more catered towards portable play just like Animal Crossing. How many PS2 games are like MH or Pokemon though? Console games are built around visual atmosphere over content and portable games need to be built around content over visual atmosphere that is all I'm saying. Trying to attain engrossing atmosphere through graphics on a portable is like trying to play an FPS with a NES pad. It's just pointless.
This rant reads really strange since you bookended it like this. To lay out games like Lumines and GTA as "doing it right" while chastising EA for porting FN3 rather than making pickup and play games makes little sense since FN3 is arguably more pickup and play friendly than either Lumines or GTA are at least.

I'd be really interested to know more about the criteria that had you pick those 3 games to the exclusion of just about everything else when I can think of a number of games that are either better catered for portable play on the PSP or just as good as these three.
If you think MH PSP is selling mostly because of its visuals then I don't know what to tell you except, its not. It is selling because of the massive amounts of CONTENT contained within the game. Portable gamers want the most value from their games as possible I went in depth about all this with Izzy a while ago I'll see if I can dig it up so it makes more sense to you. It mainly centers around 2 elements; Addiction and rewards and those rewards creating more addiction.

If your asking why I chose GTA over FN3 it's because GTA has infinitely more content than your average Fight Night game and I heard Rockstar made the missions much shorter than the console versions to more accurately suit portable gamers needs. I threw in Lumines mainly because of the way most PSP owners talk about the game as I've only played a little of the PC version. It may or may not meet that criteria of massive content and easy to pick up and play and put down again.

Fight Night though, if it remains pretty much a port of the console versions will definitely not meet the portable gamers criteria to become a hit. Now if they somehow just used the license and tried to make more of a Boxing RPG with tons more addictive content and reward the player with more than just money to buy a limited array of boxing gear and corner entourage. Those rewards did not Enhance gameplay and make it more fun and addicting it just made you stronger so you could fight a little better. If FN3 primarily sticks to this same formula then no I don't think it is suited towards portable gamers needs and would not sell to potential.
 

Izzy

Banned
I <3 Katamari said:
They also "estimated" they would sell 6 million PSPs this Christmas.

Did they?

Sony Computer Entertainment America appears to have confirmed that the company is still on track to ship six million units of the PlayStation Portable console to retailers in North America by the end of the year.

Back in October, SCEA boss Kaz Hirai predicted that the firm would reach six million units by the start of 2006; at that point, Sony had recently announced hitting 4.47 million units shipped in North America, as part of 10 million units shipped worldwide.

However, a corporate spokesperson for Sony in Europe this afternoon confirmed to GamesIndustry.biz that there has been some confusion in the US media leading to incorrect stories regarding the comments made by Hirai and the US sales figures for PSP.

We were referred to the firm's statement on October 21st, when it hit the ten million shipments mark globally, as the most recent official comment on the status of PlayStation Portable in the marketplace.

In the absence of any further information about the situation, the logical assumption is that Hirai was indeed talking about shipments, not sell-through, as is standard Sony policy; and that NPD's figure of 2.5 million sales for the PSP in the USA by the end of November (plus, of course, a number of sales in Canada, bringing that figure to well over 3 million) is the fairest yardstick for the performance of the console in that market at present.


Jarrod said:
Too bad we don't get any sort of tracking on UMD Video... I usually find more UMD Videos on shelves than DS and PSP games combined. I wonder how many of those 8.2 million units made it into consumer hands?

The only public figure is 500,000 UMD movies (and 1m games) sold in France as of December 25, 2005. I'm sure the rest of the figures will follow.
 

Shaheed79

dabbled in the jelly
Ok found it.
You still have no idea why Monster Hunter sold so well do you? The answer I thought was pretty obvious. These days Immersion is an important factor for successful console games but on a portable, immersion is almost completely out of the question so developers must design titles that capitalize on all the other reasons why people play games. More than graphics, music, neat options and bonus features portable gamers want lots of highly rewardable content. They want games that they can play for dozens of hours in medium to short bursts constantly experiencing something new and highly engaging while achieving addictively rewarding goals. The rewards should in turn enhance the addictiveness of the gameplay. Mastery games like Gradius and EEE just won't do to well in this sense unless they over-haul them towards these needs.

Jewel Summoner, if good, has a damn good chance of having great sales though. VPL will do about as well as ToE maybe a little better. The best thing they could do to gradius would be to overhaul it towards portable gamers desires. Put in 70+ more levels with 30+ unlockable fighters and tons of new weapons. Then give several layers of depth to every stage giving them a reason to play the same stage over and over other than increasing your high score. Just have a massive reward system that doesn't equate to unlocking remixed music or some junk like that. Eventually Sony will catch on and notice why games like Hot Shots Golf and MHP have done so well while plenty of others have bombed. If Pokemon was on the PSP and utilized the capabilities of the PSP without sacrificing the huge and addictive content then the DS wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

I still firmly believe this. Although keep in mind that a game can meet all of the portable monster hit criterias but it still has to be a good game. You can't throw tons of addictive and rewarding content in a game that is average or just plain sucks.
 
Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together

Nature is a language - can't you read ?
Nature is a language - can't you read ?

So...ask me, ask me, ask me
Ask me, ask me, ask me

Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together

If it's not love
Then it's the bomb
Then it's the bomb
That will bring us together
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Ignatz Mouse said:
While this may be true, if the PSP is successful, I'd expect to see a "PSP 2" that played the same games and movies that had a micro drive. Drives are getting tinier and taking less power, and if the market for 20GB+ video players takes root, I imagine this is what Sony will do.
Nothing I said was meant to preclude the possibility of a PSP successor. If the portable video market comes into its own, the PSP is well positioned to take advantage of it, that's all.

shaheed79 said:
If you think MH PSP is selling mostly because of its visuals then I don't know what to tell you except, its not.
I don't know how you'd arrive at this assumption based on what I said. I've said NOTHING about visuals.

It mainly centers around 2 elements; Addiction and rewards and those rewards creating more addiction.
Thanks for clarifying. That still puts quite a few games in the PSP library in the same category as MH, Lumines and GTA. The use of superlatives like "massive" and "infinitely more" to describe the differences between the amount of content in these games and all others doesn't speak well to your familiarity with the PSP library. And, honestly, addiction and reward are pretty fundamental elements of ANY good videogame, regardless of platform.

Pretty much any console game I pickup these days has more content than I ever get to. Portability of such games actually lets me extract more value from the purchase because I get more opportunity to actually experience a greater portion of what the game has to offer.
 

Mook1e

Member
Shaheed79 said:
Ok found it.

Eventually Sony will catch on and notice why games like Hot Shots Golf and MHP have done so well while plenty of others have bombed.

I still firmly believe this. Although keep in mind that a game can meet all of the portable monster hit criterias but it still has to be a good game. You can't throw tons of addictive and rewarding content in a game that is average or just plain sucks.
And you still insist that Sony is developing all of the games.
Hotshots, yes. Monster Hunter, no.
Developers need to make compelling handheld games, period.
Console-quality production values with good gameplay are just as welcome on a handheld as they are on consoles.
You don't have to sacrifice one to get the other. Anymore.
 

jarrod

Banned
Izzy said:
The only public figure is 500,000 UMD movies (and 1m games) sold in France as of December 25, 2005. I'm sure the rest of the figures will follow.
Those were direct from Sony though, correct? Then who's to say the figures are actual sell-through? Has Sony ever given sell-through figures before? Were these figures specified as sold through?
 
Izzy said:
Did they?

Yes, they did. And you are ignoring this for about the ~sixth time. The initial 'goal' was to sell through (they were talking about USER BASE) about 5.5 or 6 million PSP's in the USA (or NA, I don't remember anymore) till the end of 2005.
If you are really not remembering it, I will search for Sonycowboy's post for the ~10th time, that's no problem at all (by the way: unless there are about 2 million PSP's in North America they also missed the shipment target by quite a bit).
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
RE: Monster Hunter

They want games that they can play for dozens of hours in medium to short bursts constantly experiencing something new and highly engaging while achieving addictively rewarding goals. The rewards should in turn enhance the addictiveness of the gameplay.

... the "short" mission structure of the home console version, with some missions lasting up to the 40 minute time limit, is medium to short indeed. Not quite perfection for handheld gaming, but it's better than other games. But i don't believe that is what is selling MH - the rewards don't come that easy - it's a long, hard, grind of going back in and out of levels getting items (or going to the new area in the village for random goodies)

But anyways - WHY is monster hunter selling? I'm absolutely shagged backwards if i can figure it out. The removal of the best thing about the game (the online play) really hurts the game and exposes the game quite badly to the frustration of the early levels (yankuku flash backs at 15 hours play has hit me hard - with my PS2 character, we were slaughtering yankuku G in about 8 seconds - now THAT is perfect for handheld gaming! I dunno - it's a great port technically, but they should have tweaked it more for the PSP. Ideally, they should have allowed data transfer (somehow!) from MH1, but they could have given people the option to start with a basic set of armour and a weapon that isn't as much use as a wooden spoon.

Without online, this game really does sink quite badly - unless of course there are thousands of people wirelessing up for 20-40 minutes sessions rather than play the Ps2 version of course.

Perhaps people picked up monster hunter because they missed the first one and want to see what the fuss was about? Seriously, i know a few people who have mentioned that they picked it up because they remember me banging on about it on the PS2, but the boat had already sailed. Unfortunately, they are asking me through clenched teeth, or via emails that start "Subject : Got MH PSP... WTF dood?"

Still, nowt else to play, probably start playing this again today. lols.
 

cvxfreak

Member
Monster Hunter Portable has surpassed Minna no Golf Portable as the best selling PSP game in Japan and consequently the best selling third party PSP game.
 

Dalthien

Member
cvxfreak said:
Monster Hunter Portable has surpassed Minna no Golf Portable as the best selling PSP game in Japan and consequently the best selling third party PSP game.
Well, if you add the PSP the Best version, then I've got Minna no Golf Portable at: (Chart)

452,494 Minna no Golf Portable (+ PSP the Best) (Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee) (Sony) (12/12/04) / (11/17/05) - through Dec 25/05 / Dec 25/05 (399,161 + 53,333)

I haven't updated the chart yet for Media Create this week - but Monster Hunter Portable is only at 405,651 - so it still needs another 3 weeks probably. But it won't have any problem claiming the #1 PSP spot.
 

Jeff-DSA

Member
miyamotobunny3mi.jpg


"Not if I have anything to say about it!"
 

cvxfreak

Member
Dalthien said:
Well, if you add the PSP the Best version, then I've got Minna no Golf Portable at: (Chart)

452,494 Minna no Golf Portable (+ PSP the Best) (Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee) (Sony) (12/12/04) / (11/17/05) - through Dec 25/05 / Dec 25/05 (399,161 + 53,333)

I haven't updated the chart yet for Media Create this week - but Monster Hunter Portable is only at 405,651 - so it still needs another 3 weeks probably. But it won't have any problem claiming the #1 PSP spot.

I believe Famitsu's top 100 actually includes the Best version... but if not, then I expect it to be surpassed fairly soon.
 

Dalthien

Member
cvxfreak said:
I believe Famitsu's top 100 actually includes the Best version... but if not, then I expect it to be surpassed fairly soon.
No, Famitsu tracks them separately. Through Dec 25/05, the original version is at 399,161 and The Best version is at 53,333.
 

cvxfreak

Member
Dalthien said:
No, Famitsu tracks them separately. Through Dec 25/05, the original version is at 399,161 and The Best version is at 53,333.

You know what, shoot me. I just double checked and they are counted separately. The original version was at 396K in October, and 399K by the end of 2005, so the Best has to be excluded.
 

Dalthien

Member
cvxfreak said:
You know what, shoot me. I just double checked and they are counted separately. The original version was at 396K in October, and 399K by the end of 2005, so the Best has to be excluded.
I wouldn't dare shoot you. You're the reason that I have those numbers in the first place. :)
 
Somethingblah Cock said:
Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together

Nature is a language - can't you read ?
Nature is a language - can't you read ?

So...ask me, ask me, ask me
Ask me, ask me, ask me

Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together

If it's not love
Then it's the bomb
Then it's the bomb
That will bring us together

Morrissey was such a whiner. Johnny Marr ftw.
 
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