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Next Gen: U.S. sales of Sony PSP will dwarf those of DS over the next 5 years

I

I <3 Katamari

Banned
Anyone that thinks the PSP's linup is CRAP is simply out of their mind.

But on that note, it's nothing special either. The PSP could deliver an AMAZING lineup, but it isn't yet. :\
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
weird - i'm sure a PSP price drop will help, but erm... wouldn't a DS price drop help too?

PSP has had some big name games out there - GTA is out, Madden, WE9, Monster Hunter, Musou - i love the PSP, and i have no idea why it isn't selling better than it is (especially in Japan). The big name titles are available, but the new IPs aren't really coming (Lumines being a strong seller , i suspect, because it's portable friendly (well, despite being 3 hours long per game!... okay, maybe not). Maybe Locoroco and other IPs will fair better? One has to assume that the price is the stumbling block - but how far can Sony cut it and can they cut it? $199 would be good but that's still a lot of cash. Perhaps a bundle is more likely with the gigapack relaunched at $239 or so?

And if Sony go to $199, how low will the DS go? $99? The games situation is altogether different in comparison to the PSP too - obviously some of the better selling games in Japan haven't hit the US yet, and by the looks of the US and Euro release lists, Nintendo have been too Japan centric and failed to get the flow of games into other territories sorted out - which was very bad indeed. Yet they didn't falter that bad at all. Looking at the big sellers on the DS... Nintendogs, brain training, more braintraining, gentlebrain training, Jump super stars etc... lots of new IP, and the big guns haven't even started to roll out yet.

we've yet to see : a new Mario, a new pokemon, zelda, Mario Party, Pikmin, donkey kong, wario land, etc... and i'm sure some other new ideas to come - same for PSP.

so theres lots of factors other than just price to be considered.

but yeah, i don't think anyone predicted what would happen in the first 12 months, and i'm not sure anyone can in the second. It's good to root for both , but then - where would that leave peoples wanky agendas about one of them having to "win"?
 
D

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy said:
Certainly, above by a decent amount, but the PSP sold 3.63M units in 2005 vs 4.26M GBA's.
Click to expand...

I got 4.37M GBAs in U.S. for 2005.

Code: 
Jan-05    292,917
Feb-05    270,000
Mar-05    270,000  * ~540K for Feb+Mar
Apr-05    180,000
May-05    222,000
Jun-05    288,000
Jul-05    238,000
Aug-05    180,000
Sep-05    185,000
Oct-05    208,000
Nov-05    819,733
Dec-05  1,213,196

Any idea where the mix up is?
 
K

Kolgar

Member
HCgamer said:
Sony's PSP could outsell the Nintendo DS if and when Sony decides to drop its price. Nintendo is smart though and they will drop the price on the DS and release a new Game Boy to counter this. Nintendo did not become the king of portable gaming by accident.
Click to expand...

Just a general comment. I still fail to give a shit about the "PSP vs. DS" wars. Fact is, the machines are very different and they're targeting different audiences. PSP is growing the handheld market in new directions and DS is arguably doing the same, while still catering to the Gameboy crowd.

But PSP is gonna have legs, and I don't think even a new Gameboy model is going to impede its progress, unless Nintendo renames it, builds it after the PSP's feature set, and targets Sony's audience.
 
A

Archie

Second-rate Anihawk
So has this been 7 pages of PSP/DS dickwaving with nothing of substance? I don't want to read the whole thread. :/
 
M

Monk

Banned
Jim said:
This is just retarded... Anyone who says or thinks that the PSP has either no games, no good games, or no games coming, is living under a rock. Have you just ignored the near daily announcements of new PSP games recently?

For shits and giggles, the EB Games Upcoming Release List for both the PSP and DS (Today - Summer). I can't vouch for the accuracy of it (some seem iffy), but it's pretty obvious it has a lot of support, especially in North America.

PSP Upcoming Releases: (44 games)
Mega Man Maverick Hunter X -- 1/31/2006
World Soccer Winning Eleven 9 International -- 2/7/2006
Street Fighter Alpha 3 MAX PSP -- 2/7/2006
Fight Night Round 3 -- 2/14/2006
Exit -- 2/14/2006
Toca Race Driver 2 -- 2/21/2006
MX vs. ATV Unleashed: On The Edge -- 2/27/2006
Street Supremacy -- 2/28/2006
Neopets: Petpet Adventure -- 2/28/2006
Generation of Chaos -- 2/28/2006
FIFA Street 2 -- 2/28/2006
Spongebob Yellow Avenger PSP -- 2/28/2006
MLB 06: The Show -- 2/28/2006
World Poker Tour -- 3/6/2006
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K6 PSP -- 3/6/2006
YS: THE ARK OF NAPISHTIM PSP -- 3/7/2006
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent -- 3/7/2006
Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror -- 3/7/2006
Untold Legends 2: Warriors Code with Bonus! -- 3/7/2006
Dragon Ball Z: Shin Budokai -- 3/7/2006
Pursuit Force -- 3/7/2006
Worms -- 3/13/2006
Stacked with Daniel Negreanu with Bonus! -- 3/14/2006
From Russia With Love -- 3/14/2006
Mega Man Powered Up -- 3/14/2006
Astonishia Story -- 3/14/2006
Brothers In Arms -- 3/15/2006
Field Commander -- 3/21/2006
Monster Hunter Freedom -- 3/21/2006
Bust-A-Move Deluxe -- 3/24/2006
Def Jam Fight for NY PSP -- 3/27/2006
NBA Ballers: Rebound -- 3/27/2006
Viewtiful Joe VFX Battle -- 3/28/2006
Daxter -- 3/28/2006
Metal Gear Acid 2 -- 3/28/2006
Mortal Kombat Deception PSP -- 4/1/2006
The Getaway: Gangs of London -- 4/1/2006
TOURIST TROPHY PSP -- 4/3/2006
Tomb Raider: Legend -- 4/11/2006
Guilty Gear: Judgement -- 5/1/2006
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII -- 6/1/2006
50 Cent: Bulletproof PSP -- 6/1/2006
Gran Turismo -- 6/1/2006
The Godfather -- 7/1/2006

DS Upcoming Releases: - (16 games)
Paintball 06 MAX'D -- 1/30/2006
Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop DS -- 1/31/2006
Black & White Creatures DS -- 2/1/2006
Drill Dozer -- 2/6/2006
Resident Evil: Deadly Silence -- 2/7/2006
Age of Empires: Age of Kings -- 2/14/2006
Super Monkey Ball Touch & Roll -- 2/21/2006
Super Princess Peach DS -- 2/27/2006
FIFA Street 2 -- 2/28/2006
Guilty Gear: Dust Strikers DS -- 3/1/2006
Pokemon Trozei -- 3/6/2006
Scurge Hive -- 3/9/2006
Ice Age 2 -- 3/14/2006
Tetris -- 3/20/2006
Metroid Prime: Hunters DS -- 3/20/2006
Top Spin 2 DS -- 4/3/2006
Click to expand...

Even if you pull the list back to 4/3 you will still get more games on the psp.


IMO the psp has a slightly "bigger" line up though, but thats including the fact that the likes of brain training ds isn't on the list.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
without reading the thread, I think I can sum it up:

nu-uh!
uh-huh!
nu-uh!
uh-huh!
next-gen sucks!
nu-uh!
uh-huh!
nu-uh!
uh-huh!
fanboy!
nu-uh!
uh-huh!

edit: forgot to insert huge lists of upcoming games! :lol
 
P

Ponn

Banned
Oblivion said:
I'm not exactly sure if there was anything different about your explanation than your previous post, but if I understand correctly, what you're saying is because Nintendo specifically said they're going after "non-gamers", it seems more threatening than an influx of GTA and Halo clones, mainly because their respective companies haven't directly said they're primarily targetting those crowds?

Damn, that was a long sentence.
Click to expand...

I had to explain it a couple times because someone was sticking words in my mouth and making their own assumptions.

Your close. MS and Sony have not come out and said were "targeting the people for these games". But those are considered staples or games that do define their consoles and have been copied or cloned. System sellers. You expect them on the systems, but you know the companies haven't made a mission statement that they are embracing them. Sort of like the whole "3D games only" debacle back in the day on N64 or PSX for that matter.

Now as a gamer, yes its more threatening to me see a company make a mission statement about going after non-gamers, and then seeing "non-games" make the numbers they are on the DS. I'm also afraid of it being entirely tied into Revolution too. As a gamer why shouldn't I be weary of that? If your favorite burger joint suddenly makes a statement they are going after vegetarians then wouldn't you be weary of what they are going to offer you down the road? More so if there inital offering to vegetarians sell like crazy?
 
M

M3wThr33

Banned
Jim said:
This is just retarded... Anyone who says or thinks that the PSP has either no games, no good games, or no games coming, is living under a rock. Have you just ignored the near daily announcements of new PSP games recently?

For shits and giggles, the EB Games Upcoming Release List for both the PSP and DS (Today - Summer). I can't vouch for the accuracy of it (some seem iffy), but it's pretty obvious it has a lot of support, especially in North America.

PSP Upcoming Releases: (44 games)
PORT
PORT
SEQUEL
PORT
REMAKE
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
SEQUEL
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
PORT
REMAKE

DS Upcoming Releases: - (16 games)
Paintball 06 MAX'D -- 1/30/2006
Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop DS -- 1/31/2006
Black & White Creatures DS -- 2/1/2006
Drill Dozer -- 2/6/2006
Resident Evil: Deadly Silence -- 2/7/2006
Age of Empires: Age of Kings -- 2/14/2006
Super Monkey Ball Touch & Roll -- 2/21/2006
Super Princess Peach DS -- 2/27/2006
FIFA Street 2 -- 2/28/2006
Guilty Gear: Dust Strikers DS -- 3/1/2006
Pokemon Trozei -- 3/6/2006
Scurge Hive -- 3/9/2006
Ice Age 2 -- 3/14/2006
Tetris -- 3/20/2006
Metroid Prime: Hunters DS -- 3/20/2006
Top Spin 2 DS -- 4/3/2006
Click to expand...

This is how I see it.
 
V

Vennt

Unconfirmed Member
A great* thread a day, the eternal GAF way :lol

* For great, read retarded
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.
Click to expand...

e-arth.jpg


SIG stated, "Sony will likely expand the addressable market for portable gaming devices with the PSP. As the class of gamers seeking console-like gaming grows, the PSP will be the only serious alternative to Nintendo portables. In time the variety and depth of games on the PSP could attract a larger demographic than even Nintendo portables."
Click to expand...

hudson.jpg
 
J

Jonnyram

Member
I'm just going out on a limb here, but does SIG stand for Sony Investment Group, because that report reads like a Sony press release.

Sony will likely expand the addressable market for portable gaming devices with the PSP. As the class of gamers seeking console-like gaming grows, the PSP will be the only serious alternative to Nintendo portables. In time the variety and depth of games on the PSP could attract a larger demographic than even Nintendo portables.
Click to expand...
Well the games aren't going to be very console-like when the PS3 gets released are they.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
DCharlie said:
weird - i'm sure a PSP price drop will help, but erm... wouldn't a DS price drop help too?

PSP has had some big name games out there - GTA is out, Madden, WE9, Monster Hunter, Musou - i love the PSP, and i have no idea why it isn't selling better than it is (especially in Japan). The big name titles are available, but the new IPs aren't really coming (Lumines being a strong seller , i suspect, because it's portable friendly (well, despite being 3 hours long per game!... okay, maybe not). Maybe Locoroco and other IPs will fair better? One has to assume that the price is the stumbling block - but how far can Sony cut it and can they cut it? $199 would be good but that's still a lot of cash. Perhaps a bundle is more likely with the gigapack relaunched at $239 or so?

And if Sony go to $199, how low will the DS go? $99? The games situation is altogether different in comparison to the PSP too - obviously some of the better selling games in Japan haven't hit the US yet, and by the looks of the US and Euro release lists, Nintendo have been too Japan centric and failed to get the flow of games into other territories sorted out - which was very bad indeed. Yet they didn't falter that bad at all. Looking at the big sellers on the DS... Nintendogs, brain training, more braintraining, gentlebrain training, Jump super stars etc... lots of new IP, and the big guns haven't even started to roll out yet.

we've yet to see : a new Mario, a new pokemon, zelda, Mario Party, Pikmin, donkey kong, wario land, etc... and i'm sure some other new ideas to come - same for PSP.

so theres lots of factors other than just price to be considered.

but yeah, i don't think anyone predicted what would happen in the first 12 months, and i'm not sure anyone can in the second. It's good to root for both , but then - where would that leave peoples wanky agendas about one of them having to "win"?
Click to expand...

We'll see how things shake out, but I think you are being a little shortsighted in your view on the PSP in the west.

Look at the top selling DS games. Who publishes and develops them? Nintendo. Just like the GBA, Nintendo is getting the lions share of the sales. Nothing has really changed in this aspect. Look at your list of potential future big sellers. All Nintendo titles. Goes to show what a force they are in the portable industry, but they aren't leaving much room for other companies to sell product in bigger numbers. Then look at the PSP sales list, and you see that 3rd party games are selling extremely well, and make up the bulk of the portable game sales on the system. PSP is opening up a new revenue stream in the west which was never available before to 3rd party publishers. I think this is going to pay major dividends for these 3rd party publishers, and the PSP, as we go over the next couple years. When you really think about it, and look at software sales you can see the reasons people are buying a DS and PSP. In this aspect, the PSP hasn't enough begun to spread its wings in the west yet. The PSP is opening up new portable gaming avenues as much as the DS is, if not more. The price of entry is just too high for many people at the moment.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Pimpwerx said:
This is why the numbers are useless, and have been since they first became popular on this forum. The trackers are flawed. They have accuracy issues that compound, and there's no actual accountability with any of the free sources.

OTOH, companies have to give "facts" to shareholders. It comes in the form of shipments most of the time, but those numbers normalize over time anyway. If they expect Sony to outship Nintendo by 10M units or something over that period of time, it's not like there's a chance they expect the numbers to really be close.

Estimates aren't facts. You're playing the same game as the analysts in the articles, but you just have a source that you consider reliable, when it's not. No more/less reliable than shipments in any case. It just doesn't favor your argument as well. PEACE.
Click to expand...

The actual game companiers use them though, and that's good enough for, well, everyone but you it seems.
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
yup, we need a link to which SIG this is - there are a couple, and i can't find any links to this article on the couple that i'd suspect it to be.

If it's Sony Investor Group... then lols.

"PSP is opening up a new revenue stream in the west which was never available before to 3rd party publishers. I think this is going to pay major dividends for these 3rd party publishers, and the PSP, as we go over the next couple years. When you really think about it, and look at software sales you can see the reasons people are buying a DS and PSP. In this aspect, the PSP hasn't enough begun to spread its wings in the west yet. The PSP is opening up new portable gaming avenues as much as the DS is, if not more. The price of entry is just too high for many people at the moment."
Click to expand...

well, then you get into the realm of how much profit you get returned vs. dev costs. Of course porting from PS2 to PSP helps keep that cost down, but with the PSP bar rising, so is dev costs. Lets face it, DS is held to much lower standards than the PSP in terms of audio/visual.

Personally, i'd disagree that the PSP has the edge in opening up the DS -but thats just me. The things that the PSP can do that the DS can't is graphics based, the things the DS can do that PSP can't are interface/interaction based. I think the later is more important to expanding the demographic, although as a game i obviously appreciate the AV glamour of the PSP.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Ponn01 said:
So you honestly think third parties and Nintendo will be able to split their time, money and energy into creating enough games to satisfy everyone? Interesting, especially given the track record. Good luck with that then. Like I said, thankfully I have other choices if it doesn't work out that way.
Click to expand...

Iwata went over this in his TGS keynote. The Brain Train games only required, if I remember, half a dozen people and a few months to develop. That's it. It did not strain Nintendo's development resources. Nintendo might not create enough games for everyone, as they haven't done so for who knows long, but you're in no danger of losing your established content as far as Nintendo DS is concerned.

Face it people. The Brain Training games are here to stay. They may become more established on the DS as time goes on, but don't forget that it's Animal Crossing DS that's the best selling DS game in Japan, and nintendogs in the U.S. When Pokemon became the best selling GBA games, we weren't flushed with Pokemon clones up the wazoo, we were simply given games that young audiences are likely to embrace.

So again people, don't worry about previously established IPs on the DS, they'll be fine.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
My comment wasn't on function, but on the fact I believe PSP is opening up portable gaming avenue to the 100+ million people who bought a PSOne and PS2 who wouldn't have thought to have purchased a portable before.
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
My comment wasn't on function, but on the fact I believe PSP is opening up portable gaming avenue to the 100+ million people who bought a PSOne and PS2 who wouldn't have thought to have purchased a portable before.
Click to expand...

but aren't those people going to be more interested in continuing their gaming trend with the forthcoming PS3 rather than sinking $200+ into a portable?
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Mrbob said:
My comment wasn't on function, but on the fact I believe PSP is opening up portable gaming avenue to the 100+ million people who bought a PSOne and PS2 who wouldn't have thought to have purchased a portable before.
Click to expand...

What?

There's got to be a certain crossover SOMEWHERE. At least 50 million is my bet.
 
B

BudokaiMR2

Member
God I hate these kind of articles. Just people pulling numbers out of their asses.

Personally I do see the PSP getting closer to the DS this next year, especially if there is a price drop(in the US at least).

But predicting 5 years from now is ridiculous. New gameboy anyone? When that releases it could destroy both systems sells.

Sony am cry.
 
K

Kolgar

Member
DCharlie said:
but aren't those people going to be more interested in continuing their gaming trend with the forthcoming PS3 rather than sinking $200+ into a portable?
Click to expand...

Just anecdotally, I never considered buying a portable system before PSP. But now I have one and it's become part of my lifestyle. Surprisingly, I also have two very "casual gamer" friends who both own PS2s, and to my great surprise - both bought PSPs. Yes, these guys plunked down $250 on a portable video system last year, and they're slow to adopt anything.

So yeah, I think Mr.Bob's right - PSP is opening up the portables market to the "PlayStation generation," and its penetration will only accelerate as the hardware's price drops.

Edit: One of these guys is also hell-bent on buying a PS3.
 
E

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
The strength and certainty with which they present their expectations leads me to belive that they did not factor in the influence a tilting japanese market can have on the US market in the semi-long run.

(thanks for the link)
 
T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
Thanks for the link. I actually expected the PSP to have a lead over the DS in 2005, but as for now it's just 200K short, if not closer. Not bad for it's first holiday season before price drop and cheap bundling.

When the PSP drops in price, I know for a fact that it's gonna be crazy. It's sold so well at $250 and $300 and I'm still positive demand is going to go sky high when it hits $200 or less. You all may be creaming yourselves and buying DS' for Princess Peach games, but you ignore the fact that most of the populous wants a PSP because it has portable games that look good that you can't get such quality of on other portable handhelds. If you look through the PSP owners' catalogue you'll see games like Need for Speed and Star Wars aside GTA and whatnot. You guys here may not want those games, but don't brush off the mainstream just because they aren't YOUR games.

PSP rocks. Bow down. PSP will lead in the US and EU by June.
 
T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
Newzboyz99 said:
Just out of curiousity....what games are good on PSP right now?
Click to expand...
A lot. But everyone's tastes are different. I didn't enjoy Kirby at all, for example, while many people here say it's the best game of 2005.

So I'm not gonna bother with a list seeing as there is a strong likelyhood that you will just say "zomg those r portz!" or something on that level, trying to dismiss my post.
 
G

GDGF

Soothsayer
The Abominable Snowman said:
PSP rocks. Bow down. PSP will lead in the US and EU by June.
Click to expand...

If it does, it'll just lose that lead around Nov when Pokemon hits :) That you can take to the bank.

Reminds me of those bets that were made claiming PSP domination worldwide by the end of 2005.
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Just anecdotally, I never considered buying a portable system before PSP. But now I have one and it's become part of my lifestyle. Surprisingly, I also have two very "casual gamer" friends who both own PS2s, and to my great surprise - both bought PSPs. Yes, these guys plunked down $250 on a portable video system last year, and they're slow to adopt anything.
Click to expand...

of course, the anecdotal stories come the other way

Of our gang of guys, all the girls who had previously no interest (or out and out distaste) in gaming all own DS's. That's 4 or so buyers who wouldn't touch gaming getting a DS.

At first, i thought it was nintendogs... but then they got brain training... then seeing them all playing Mario Kart together at various parties... it's a real turnaround. If you'd told them over a year ago that they'd be the ones initiating wireless games with the guys, they'd have told us they were crazy.

Mrs C mother - DS owner, Brother - DS owner, Father - DS owner
Jonnyrams inlaws - DS owners
Cormacaronis wife - DS owner
My boss (hates games) - DS owner, his wife - DS owner

the list goes on.

I'm not saying that there is no evidence of sony opening up handheld gaming to the sony user base - that's obviously the case - i just think the DS reach is beyond that. It doesn't even need people to be into Nintendo, gaming , or whatever - it's pulling in people of it's own accord.

For that reason, i think this article is off the mark.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
DCharlie said:
but aren't those people going to be more interested in continuing their gaming trend with the forthcoming PS3 rather than sinking $200+ into a portable?
Click to expand...

Sony is expanding their marketshare. They will be interested in both and it helps strengthen the entire Playstation line.

Western developers aren't treating the PSP as a portfest machine anymore. Brand new games in existing franchises are coming out.
 
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