Support NeoGAF

[Griss]

Looking back through last year's NPD threads I see that Nintendo were able to sell through about 190k consoles in the US in Q4 2013. With only FDK coming as a major title in Q4 (I think, anyway) I'd expect these numbers to be even lower. Europe is a wasteland at the moment where they've had negative shipments in a non-holiday quarter...

Not sure how they're going to convince retail to buy another 400k of these things before April, and that's entirely without considering stock sitting on shelves.

I also expect their stock to fall even further when they announce their mobile 'strategy' later today. Unless all of the smart money has already moved based on the Nikkei leak, and that's always a possibility.

 

[vinnygambini]

Did you miss this part in the OP?
"Super Mario 3D World - Some number more than 1 million worldwide lifetime shipped copies (+ eShop sales to consumers)"

It sold over a mil worldwide , what numbers do you want them to release?

Also so glad both 3DS and WiiU Zelda games sold great

I did not miss anything. Usually, Nintendo discloses the total sales in the Consolidated Operating Results, especially for Mario titles, as they have done for Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 2 million as an example.

Advising as over 1 million I believe is vague and indicates it most likely underperformed as a ''3D Mario'' title. Maybe in the Supplementary Information they will give us more concrete numbers.

Solid results from Pokemon X&Y and Zelda as mentioned previously.

 

[The_Endgamer]

The lack of Mario World not being there is telling.

Hopefully this means they'll stop relying on him to sell consoles. Franchise fatigue has surely settled in.

Other than that, nice to see the comparisons between their other consoles. Surely it can't sell more than those GCN figures for sure now, really. The release schedule is daunting at this stage.

Increased R+D costs are a good sign too. Impending 'slim' console maybe?
It sure as hell can't be another attachment. -_-

 

[Graphics Horse]

Could be time for the Vitality Sensor to shake the world.

 

[Tripon]

The lack of Mario World not being there is telling.

Hopefully this means they'll stop relying on him to sell consoles. Franchise fatigue has surely settled in.

Other than that, nice to see the comparisons between their other consoles. Surely it can't sell more than those GCN figures for sure now, really. The release schedule is daunting at this stage.

Increased R+D costs are a good sign too. Impending 'slim' console maybe?
It sure as hell can't be another attachment. -_-

They said 3D Mario Shipped over a million copies.

 

[shinra-bansho]

At first I misread the shipment figures and thought they were just for the quarter, and even then it seemed awful.

600K shipped to Japan
870K shipped to the US
490K shipped to Europe/Other.

For what should be the busiest quarter of the year.

Europe really seems something of a lost cause.

 

[zhao3gold]

So Xbox One is still 2 millions behind Wii U. I don't think One will catch U before September.

But PS4 will overtake U easily in the first quarter of 2014 (calendar year).

 

[zhao3gold]

And the shipment of 2DS is really higher than I expected. Nice~ I got one in Christmas just for Nintendo hardware collection. I would say it is good.

 

[The Boat]

It's a considerably poorer indicative of user base size than sold-through numbers (especially in cases where large amounts of units are languishing in warehouses). Microsoft and Sony changed the rules by switching to reporting (and emphasizing) sell-through (unsurprisingly, since it's advantageous for their message).

That much is obvious, but the fact remains that we have no idea how many are sitting in stores or warehouses. Sony and MS are doing that now, but they'll likely return to shipped once launch craze is over.

Well, a lot of manufactures do channel stuffing from time to time, but having to report negative shipments like Nintendo had to do for Wii U last year is not so common I think.

Definitely not common afaik.

 

[michaelius]

I assumed that revised forecasts were made with goal of being easily reachable and to show Nintendo can outperform them

But still they need:
1,85 milions 3DS
0,39 milions Wii U

to meet shipments target

So there's real chance they might not reach them

 

[Bill Rizer]

Well, I was expecting even worse numbers for WiiU. What would be a decent number for next year to consider WiiU relived? 10 millions? What should we expect instead?

 

[Graphics Horse]

I assumed that revised forecasts were made with goal of being easily reachable and to show Nintendo can outperform them

But still they need:
1,85 milions 3DS
0,39 milions Wii U

to meet shipments target

So there's real chance they might not reach them

They should be ok there, DK bundles and possible emergency 2DS Japan launch would do it.

 

[KingSnake]

Let me borrow an Atari Marketing slogan. Do the math.

Q3 sales:

US (NPD): 820k
JP (Media Create): 490k
FR (Philippe Lavoué): 187k for whole 2013, but most of it in Oct-Dec
UK: 41% increase YOY => 112k for 2013. LTD was under 150k before PS4 launch, so Q3 must be > 45k

 

[dolemite]

WiiU is the only Nintendo console that experienced a drop in sales in its second year on the market. Bad WiiU, bad.

 

[Araris]

I assumed that revised forecasts were made with goal of being easily reachable and to show Nintendo can outperform them

But still they need:
1,85 milions 3DS
0,39 milions Wii U

to meet shipments target

So there's real chance they might not reach them

They should hit the Wii U number quite easily. It's the amount they sold during the same period last year when the system bombed harder than imaginable (only to bomb twice as hard the following quarter), was $350, and the only serious release at the time was Lego City Undercover. They have Donkey Kong and the system has a mario bundle at $300. I would be surprised to see the Wii U have another quarter as bad as Jan/March'13, then again anything is possible.

 

[xValentine]

Honest question: why are there so many people here focused on these numbers being shipped? Isn't that always the case?

When your competitors used the word "Sold to consumers", using "shipped" now says the obvious. Then you also have the abundance of WiiUs on retailers.

 

[Log4Girlz]

WiiU is the only Nintendo console that experienced a drop in sales in its second year on the market. Bad WiiU, bad.

I think it is premature to judge a console based on its first year or two on the market. Mario Kart and Smash haven't even been released yet.

Can I trademark that statement?

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Not too bad overall. WiiU is not doing well, 3DS is declining but Nintendo still made a $100M in profit.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I think it is premature to judge a console based on its first year or two on the market. Mario Kart and Smash haven't even been released yet.

Can I trademark that statement?

Yes you can. Along with the other boring played out comments.

 

[Araris]

Also, does it say how many Wii U's they have in inventory or just the $1.8 billion number?

Cause with their initial forecast of 9 million Wii U's last year (if they actually manufactured them) it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to drop the gamepad if they need to sell 9 million of them to clear their stockpile of Wii U's with gamepads.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Yes you can. Along with the other boring played out comments.

I bet I could rake in a pretty penny in licensing.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I bet I could rake in a pretty penny in licensing.

Please understand will be your money maker

 

[KingSnake]

Also, does it say how many Wii U's they have in inventory or just the $1.8 billion number?

Cause with their initial forecast of 9 million Wii U's last year (if they actually manufactured them) it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to drop the gamepad if they need to sell 9 million of them to clear their stockpile of Wii U's with gamepads.

First of all, it would be 6.2 million (as 2.4 are already shipped and 0.4 to be shipped in Q4). Secondly, I surely hope they didn't produce consoles without checking the sales data, that would be stupidly crazy even by Nintendo business standards.

Plus, those 6 millions Gamepad left would be still a big loss, unless they sell the Gamepad-less SKU at profit.

 

[vinnygambini]

Side note, Nintendo is forecasting a loss of ¥33.4 billion ($323 million) in Q4 for a total operating loss of ¥35 billion ($339 million) for their fiscal year if one does the math accordingly.

 

[Nikodemos]

Side note, Nintendo is forecasting a loss of ¥33.4 billion ($323 million) in Q4 for a total operating loss of ¥35 billion ($339 million) for their fiscal year if one does the math accordingly.

That's not very good. Their primary revenue source still doesn't manage to pay the bills for, I think, second year running? Or was it third?

 

[michaelius]

They should hit the Wii U number quite easily. It's the amount they sold during the same period last year when the system bombed harder than imaginable (only to bomb twice as hard the following quarter), was $350, and the only serious release at the time was Lego City Undercover. They have Donkey Kong and the system has a mario bundle at $300. I would be surprised to see the Wii U have another quarter as bad as Jan/March'13, then again anything is possible.

January still had some strong sales as it was few weeks after lunch.

So far we know Wii U is slightly down YoY in Japan compared to last year
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=756020&highlight=media+create

altrough February/March should be better.

 

[Mattias]

They are doomed...

 

[Graphics Horse]

That's not very good. Their primary revenue source still doesn't manage to pay the bills for, I think, second year running? Or was it third?

This will be the third I think.

 

[Log4Girlz]

This will be the third I think.

That's already half of a decent hardware generation.

 

[Aquamarine]

Not too bad overall. WiiU is not doing well, 3DS is declining but Nintendo still made a $100M in profit.

Q3 is Nintendo's most successful quarter traditionally. Expect Q4 not to fare nearly as well.

 

[E-phonk]

Also, does it say how many Wii U's they have in inventory or just the $1.8 billion number?

Cause with their initial forecast of 9 million Wii U's last year (if they actually manufactured them) it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to drop the gamepad if they need to sell 9 million of them to clear their stockpile of Wii U's with gamepads.

Sell a basic bundle cheap without gamepad, and a premium one with gamepad.
Sell the gamepad seperatly for "off tv" play.

 

[Durante]

Less than 2 million in the Oc-Dc in the second year of a Nintendo console? Wii U really is dead.

It's not pining! It's passed on! This console is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its computational processes are now history! It's off the shelf! It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile! This is an ex-console!!

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Less than 2 million in the Oc-Dc in the second year of a Nintendo console? Wii U really is dead.

It's not pining! It's passed on! This console is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its computational processes are now history! It's off the shelf! It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile! This is an ex-console!!

It died!!!

 

[Mpl90]

Less than 2 million in the Oc-Dc in the second year of a Nintendo console? Wii U really is dead.

It's not pining! It's passed on! This console is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its computational processes are now history! It's off the shelf! It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile! This is an ex-console!!

Dat Nostalgia Critic's quote from The Room's review.

Spoiler

Unless that quote comes from another source and he quoted that as well

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Q3 is Nintendo's most successful quarter traditionally. Expect Q4 not to fare nearly as well.

So, they're still on track to lose money over the fiscal year?

 

[Rösti]

Q3 is Nintendo's most successful quarter traditionally. Expect Q4 not to fare nearly as well.

In terms of new releases, this is what they have for Q4 (as far as I can tell):

• Bravely Default
• Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
• Professor Layton and the Azran Legacy
• Yoshi's New Island

Perhaps there will be a Wii U bundle or two, or they do something really crazy (GamePad free SKU) and the sales "skyrocket". But yeah, Q4 ain't looking good.

 

[Aquamarine]

So, they're still on track to lose money over the fiscal year?

Nintendo still has a forecasted, cumulative FY loss of -25 billion JPY Net Income and -35 billion JPY Operating Income, so yes, they're still on track to demonstrate an overall loss.

 

[Osiris]

Less than 2 million in the Oc-Dc in the second year of a Nintendo console? Wii U really is dead.

It's not pining! It's passed on! This console is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its computational processes are now history! It's off the shelf! It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile! This is an ex-console!!

Great minds think alike

Dat Nostalgia Critic's quote from The Room's review.

Unless that quote comes from another source and he quoted that as well

Monty Python

 

[benny_a]

Dat Nostalgia Critic's quote from The Room's review.

Spoiler

Unless that quote comes from another source and he quoted that as well

Dat Monty Python

 

[Log4Girlz]

Less than 2 million in the Oc-Dc in the second year of a Nintendo console? Wii U really is dead.

It's not pining! It's passed on! This console is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its computational processes are now history! It's off the shelf! It's kicked the bucket, it's shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile! This is an ex-console!!

I think it is premature to judge a console based on its first year or two on the market. Mario Kart and Smash haven't even been released yet™

 

[Mpl90]

Dat Monty Python

Here we go, I should have known better :lol

 

[StreetsAhead]

In terms of new releases, this is what they have for Q4 (as far as I can tell):

• Bravely Default
• Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
• Professor Layton and the Azran Legacy
• Yoshi's New Island

Perhaps there will be a Wii U bundle or two, or they do something really crazy (GamePad free SKU) and the sales "skyrocket". But yeah, Q4 ain't looking good.

In Japan they have (had) Kirby, Fossil Fighters, DK, and Mario Party.

With a prediction of 400K for the quarter, I can't see them pushing any bundles, either.

 

[Nikodemos]

I think it is premature to judge a console based on its first year or two on the market. Mario Kart and Smash haven't even been released yet™

Wait, does this mean I have to pay you one Valve cent (V 0.01) every time I use or quote that? This rampant monetisation is becoming more and more ridiculous with each passing day!

Spoiler

 

[Aquamarine]

Analyst Consensus:

Revenue: 348.03 billion JPY
Gross Margin: 26.21%
Operating Income: (-2.20 billion JPY)
Net Income: (-1.00 billion JPY)
EPS: 99.95 JPY

Real Q3 Results:

Revenue: 302.54 billion JPY
Gross Margin: 28.84%
Operating Income: 21.70 billion JPY
Net Income: 9.60 billion JPY
EPS: 75.04 JPY

Overall the Earnings are a mixed bag... Revenue underwhelms estimates, but Nintendo manages to edge out a small Operating Profit for the quarter. The problem here is that it isn't very hopeful at all, the very poor Wii U sales / declining 3DS sales being the blight on the Earnings.

Abysmal FY-end guidance forecasts are too significant to ignore...it's performances like these that force management to change their strategies.

 

[Captain Smoker]

(...)

- Nintendo did not release results for Super Mario 3D World sales (very indicating)

(...)

They'll release a seperate file tomorrow "Supplementary Information" that includes all games that managed to sell >1.000.000 units in Q4.

3D World is one of them. Nothing indicating.

 

[1st Course]

3DS LTD February 26, 2011 > December 31, 2013 (1044 days) = 42.74m (JP: 15.67m, NA/SA: 14.36m, Other: 12.62m) [ 3 holidays]
NDS LTD November 21, 2004 > September 30, 2007 (1043 days) = 53.64m (JP: 19.71m, NA/SA: 16.06m, Other: 17.88m) [ 3 holidays]
GBA LTD March 21, 2001 > December 31, 2003 (1015 days) = 49.42m (JP: 12.66m, NA/SA: 23.78m, Other: 12.98m) [ 3 holidays]

WiiU LTD November 18, 2012 > December 31, 2013 (409 days) = 5.86m (JP: 1.75m, NA/SA: 2.61m, Other: 1.49m) [ 2 holidays]
Wii LTD November 19, 2006 > December 31, 2007 (408 days) = 20.13m (JP: 4.99m, NA/SA: 8.85m, Other: 6.30m) [ 2 holidays]
GameCube LTD September 14, 2001 > September 30, 2002 (382 days) = 6.68m (JP: 1.91m, Overseas: 4.77m) [ 1 holiday]

 

[shinra-bansho]

Hmm, could someone elaborate a bit on the ¥179B in inventories - is that based on the current market value of the products or not? I.e. does that still need to be impaired?

 

[vinnygambini]

Analyst Consensus:

Revenue: 348.03 billion JPY
Gross Margin: 26.21%
Operating Income: (-2.20 billion JPY)
Net Income: (-1.00 billion JPY)
EPS: 99.95 JPY

Real Q3 Results:

Revenue: 302.54 billion JPY
Gross Margin: 28.84%
Operating Income: 21.70 billion JPY
Net Income: 9.60 billion JPY
EPS: 75.04 JPY

Overall the Earnings are a mixed bag... Revenue underwhelms estimates, but Nintendo manages to edge out a small Operating Profit for the quarter. The problem here is that it isn't very hopeful at all, the very poor Wii U sales / declining 3DS sales being the blight on the Earnings.

Abysmal FY-end guidance forecasts are too significant to ignore...it's performances like these that force management to change their strategies.

Thanks Aqua for the analyst consensus. I always have a hard time finding them.

Edit: See post 152 CaptainSmoker

 

[Aquamarine]

Thanks Aqua for the analyst consensus. I always have a hard time finding them.

Recommendations:

Strong Buy - 1 Broker
Buy - 2 Brokers
Hold - 6 Brokers
Underperform - 8 Brokers
Sell - 1 Broker

Total - 18 Brokers

 

[Pie and Beans]

Seems like people are beginning to accept the 3DS will fall short of the GBA's 80 million and be Nintendo's lowest selling handheld. I caught a helluva lot of heat for that assertion last year, but after another Christmas, revision, and Pokemon, I'd say the writings on the wall.

Less than half a million WiiU's punted Europe/Other's way during Christmas and probably not even sold through at that just goes to show the situation of that console outside of JP and NA where its also struggling but not to that extent.

I'm not sure what Iwata could even present tomorrow that paints a different picture than an entirely disappearing home console market, and now also their once generational backbone of always improving handheld sales clearly on the wane.