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[Captain Smoker]

Added ALBW and WW HD. We'll get the exact Wind Waker number tomorrow.


Zelda Series: more than 77.300.000 units (more than 65.250.000 for the main series)

[B]Sys.	Game						LTD units	As of[/B]

N64	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time		7.600.000	Dec 06
Wii	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess		7.200.000	Sep 13
NES	The Legend of Zelda				6.510.000	Dec 06
NDS	The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass		4.760.000	Sep 13
SNES	The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past		4.610.000	Dec 06
GCN	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker		4.420.000	Dec 06
NES	Zelda II: The Adventure of Link			4.380.000	Dec 06
GBC	The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Seasons	3.990.000	Dec 06
GB	The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening		3.830.000	Dec 06
Wii	The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword		3.660.000	Sep 13
N64	The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask		3.360.000	Dec 06
NDS	The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks		2.950.000	Sep 13
GBA	The Legend of Zelda: Four Swords Adventures	2.720.000	Dec 06
[B]3DS	The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds	2.180.000	Dec 13[/B]
GBA	The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap		1.760.000	Dec 06
GCN	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess		1.320.000	Mar 07

3DS	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D		3.040.000	Jun 13
GBC	The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX	2.220.000	Dec 06
[B]WiU	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD		1.000.000	Dec 13[/B]

Wii	Link's Crossbow Training (with Wii Zapper)	5.790.000	Sep 13

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I find it endearing that they're using the Game Boy brand in the note.

........

Just a note......right?

 

[Basileus777]

Also, does it say how many Wii U's they have in inventory or just the $1.8 billion number?

Cause with their initial forecast of 9 million Wii U's last year (if they actually manufactured them) it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to drop the gamepad if they need to sell 9 million of them to clear their stockpile of Wii U's with gamepads.

This has always been the problem with proposals to strip out the Gamepad. It makes no sense as a short-term solution, and the WiiU has no long-term future.

 

[EatChildren]

Little argument needs to be had, and contending/defending the <2 million units shipped/sold a year after launch and during the busiest holiday period constitutes as absolute madness at this point. Nintendo's hardware relevancy in the home console space has diminished significantly, and anybody with an interest or emotional investment in the entertainment they provide should have their fingers and toes crossed that the company intends to implement significant, company wide changes that steer development collectively towards a more positive, progressive, and profitable future.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

 

[Van Owen]

If I was an investor I would have zero confidence in Nintendo's ability to use smart devices to drive Wii U sales.

 

[CapHarlock]

DS attach rate is over represented by the casual gamer aimed software.

One person Casual game is another person's game.

On a side note, they still sell DS games to this day, so it's hard to say what the true attachment rate is for either system.

 

[GhostTrick]

Little argument needs to be had, and contending/defending the <2 million units shipped/sold a year after launch and during the busiest holiday period constitutes as absolute madness at this point. Nintendo's hardware relevancy in the home console space has diminished significantly, and anybody with an interest or emotional investment in the entertainment they provide should have their fingers and toes crossed that the company intends to implement significant, company wide changes that steer development collectively towards a more positive, progressive, and profitable future.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

Basically agree. Except for Wii (yeah I know, it's easy to see things this way), Nintendo home consoles has seen a steady decline, while their handhelds (apart from 3DS, but for other reasons) have seen an increase. With 3DS and Wii U, it's been clear than Nintendo can't afford anymore to develop for 2 consoles... but also that the line between handheld and home console is blurrying. Series such as Paper Mario or Luigi's Mansion have seen handheld counterparts, and they were as competent as home console entries in term of gameplay. The same applies to Mario Kart or Smash Brothers. And it seems that people are likely to play those on handhelds. At the same time, devs cost rised for both Nintendo platforms. Software wise, the issue is pretty clear:
Nintendo needs either to hire a lot more people to work on their 2 platforms... or working for one platform.
Now, one platform would mean two things:
Nintendo could just make a handheld... or they could do like Apple or Sony with Vita:
You have one hardware with one OS but with different form factors: handheld, tablet, home console and more and more... This way, you develop one game for every platforms.

 

[hongcha]

........

Just a note......right?

Obviously this little easter egg reveals their next home console will be the GameMan.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Nintendo - Digital Revenues

FY3 2007: 19.672.000 $ (¥ 2,3 billion)
FY3 2008: 68.247.000 $ (¥ 7,8 billion)
FY3 2009: 96.537.000 $ (¥ 9,7 billion)
FY3 2010: 128.095.000 $ (¥ 11,9 billion)
FY3 2011: 93.360.000 $ (¥ 8,0 billion)
FY3 2012: 98.772.000 $ (¥ 7,8 billion)
FY3 2013: 197.638.000 $ (¥ 16,4 billion)
FY3 2014: 181.196.000 $ (¥ 18,0 billion) (three quarters)

*converted with historical exchange rates for each period



Nintendo - Average shipping price of hardware

Q3 FY3-2013: ¥ 17.033,50 ($ 209,95)
Q4 FY3-2013: ¥ 22.631,14 ($ 245,48)
Q1 FY3-2014: ¥ 20.516,37 ($ 207,76)
Q2 FY3-2014: ¥ 18.252,75 ($ 191,39)
Q3 FY3-2014: ¥ 18.924,20 ($ 188,51)

*Revenue / units sold - This is the average price of Nintendos hardware sold to retailers

 

[Canis lupus]

WOW 3DS almost down 2m Calendar YoY. Even with all the big games it got like MH4, Pokemon X/Y, a cheaper new hardware revision, it sold less than the relatively calm previous year, it peaked already, damn. It's going to be a painful decline and transition, the next handheld is still a few years off.

So even after revising down their forecast from 9m to 2.8m, they'll likely still miss their target, wow... Anyone think they can ship 0.40m through march?

 

[Shiggy]

Those numbers are well deserved. Hardware and software sales probably can't go much lower. Let's hope they will go for a customer oriented direction now. Doubtful I know.

 

[gofreak]

They say this investor meeting will focus on how Nintendo will leverage smart devices, but I hope that doesn't leave a giant elephant in the room of what they'll be doing for the home business. Whatever about 3DS, the home business needs something a lot more drastic than cross promotion on smart devices with apps and companion apps.

 

[Captain Smoker]

WOW 3DS almost down 2m Calendar YoY. Even with all the big games it got like MH4, Pokemon X/Y, a cheaper new hardware revision, it sold less than the relatively calm previous year, it peaked already, damn. It's going to be a painful decline and transition, the next handheld is still a few years off.

So even after revising down their forecast from 9m to 2.8m, they'll likely still miss their target, wow... Anyone think they can ship 0.40m through march?

It's 380.000 units to be exact.

They can sell-through that amount, the question is if the shipments are going to be that high, depending on the amount that's in stores, that they project for April and so on.

 

[Graphics Horse]

They say this investor meeting will focus on how Nintendo will leverage smart devices, but I hope that doesn't leave a giant elephant in the room of what they'll be doing for the home business. Whatever about 3DS, the home business needs something a lot more drastic than cross promotion on smart devices with apps and companion apps.

Yep. Honestly I can't see it doing much in the short term, they can show free Pokemon episodes or something but what will make people suddenly buy a new system?

 

[rokero]

I wish the WiiU was like the gamecube it underperformed and sold way less than the ps2 but it didn't matter cuz i was having an awesome time with all the great games Nintendo and third parties put out that's my biggest disappointment with WiiU Nintendo's output has been abysmal

 

[Sendou]

Yep. Honestly I can't see it doing much in the short term, they can show free Pokemon episodes or something but what will make people suddenly buy a new system?

I thought they already do that.

 

[Canis lupus]

It's 380.000 units to be exact.

They can sell-through that amount, the question is if the shipments are going to be that high, depending on the amount that's in stores, that they project for April and so on.

*390.000

Q1 is typically a bad period for Nintendo. Sales fell of a cliff in Japan already and European retailers were sending stock back to Nintendo post Holiday last year. They have no significant releases other than DKTF and that game is not exactly a system seller. Wii U shipped 400k in Q1 2013 on the back of its launch.

 

[Riki]

I thought they already do that.

Yeah but it's of the worst season.

 

[DC R1D3R]

at the end of the day they'll still be.......counting up...mounting up!

 

[Graphics Horse]

I thought they already do that.

Maybe they do! I have no idea what they should do apart from making a smartphone controller accessory/console hybrid.

 

[Captain Smoker]

*390.000

It's 380.000, you probably got a calculation error because of the negative shipments in Europe. (it's -10.000, not -20.000)

Q1 is typically a bad period for Nintendo. Sales fell of a cliff in Japan already and European retailers were sending stock back to Nintendo post Holiday last year. They have no significant releases other than DKTF and that game is not exactly a system seller. Wii U shipped 400k in Q1 2013 on the back of its launch.

Q1 is bad for everyone compared to Q4.

Q1 2013 and Q1 2014 are different situations for the Wii U, we'll see how it's going to perform, if you want to guess it, you should look at the current situation, current shipment/sold-ratio and so on, not at the past one.

 

[watershed]

Do we know what time the briefing is tomorrow?

 

[Mpl90]

3DS Q3 2012 Shipment

Japan - 2,950,000
The Americas - 2,590,000
Other - 2,110,000

Total Q3 2012 - 7,650,000

3DS Q3 2013 Shipment

Japan - 2,420,000
The Americas - 2,930,000
Other - 2,400,000

Total Q3 2012 - 7,750,000

Q3 2012 v.s. Q3 2013: increases / drops YOY

Japan - (18%)
The Americas - 13%
Other - 14%

Total Q3 - 1%

 

[JoeM86]

Do we know what time the briefing is tomorrow?

10am JST

 

[beril]

increase in r&d sounds promising. I guess they'll be filling up the new building quickly

 

[aygomyownroad]

5 games per Wii U.

Hmm...
NSMB 3D World
Pikmin 3
Nintendo Land
Wii Party U
Zelda WWHD

Yup 5 games so far...

Spoiler

Have COD Black op2 but that was second hand

 

[watershed]

10am JST

Cool, thanks. I'll enjoy the random tweets and bad translations in the morning.

 

[JoeM86]

Cool, thanks. I'll enjoy the random tweets and bad translations in the morning.

Really hope Nintendo put up the English translations instantly to prevent poor translations spreading.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

They say this investor meeting will focus on how Nintendo will leverage smart devices, but I hope that doesn't leave a giant elephant in the room of what they'll be doing for the home business. Whatever about 3DS, the home business needs something a lot more drastic than cross promotion on smart devices with apps and companion apps.

I think it's time for Nintendo to leave the home console market and focus solely on handhelds.

Their next handheld should have an HDMi socket with the option to use the handheld as a controller when connected to a TV/monitor. Both the Vita and 3DS prove you can have a great home console experience on handhelds.

Time for Nintendo to embrace this future.

 

[Starwolf_UK]

I'm going to throw some coins into the arena considering this old chestnut.

The attach rate of the 3ds doesn't seem to be good.

Bear in mind this is after efforts to artificially boost it too. What ma I talking about? Various free game promotions. The Japanese version of which was absurdly generous due to the sheer selection of eligible games.

It isn't. DS was sitting around 5.2 near the same time period, 3DS is at 3.6.

While others have speculated competition form smartphone releases part of me wonders if some games that would have once gotten small retail releases have now become eShop exclusive and thus excluded themselves from counting in the software sold.

Maybe a lot of software went extinct too as 3DS development might require much more in the resource department than GBA or DS did. In turn this attach rate is based of software shipped and if there is less software to be shipped...

What I'm saying is the better comparison might be number of retail games out for the systems at this point in their lives. Although some niche software shipping minimum amounts is only going to swing things 1 or 2 million.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Man, those WiiU numbers. Eeesshhh

 

[stryke]

3DS LTD February 26, 2011 > December 31, 2013 (1044 days) = 42.74m (JP: 15.67m, NA/SA: 14.36m, Other: 12.62m) [ 3 holidays]
NDS LTD November 21, 2004 > September 30, 2007 (1043 days) = 53.64m (JP: 19.71m, NA/SA: 16.06m, Other: 17.88m) [ 3 holidays]
GBA LTD March 21, 2001 > December 31, 2003 (1015 days) = 49.42m (JP: 12.66m, NA/SA: 23.78m, Other: 12.98m) [ 3 holidays]

WiiU LTD November 18, 2012 > December 31, 2013 (409 days) = 5.86m (JP: 1.75m, NA/SA: 2.61m, Other: 1.49m) [ 2 holidays]
Wii LTD November 19, 2006 > December 31, 2007 (408 days) = 20.13m (JP: 4.99m, NA/SA: 8.85m, Other: 6.30m) [ 2 holidays]
GameCube LTD September 14, 2001 > September 30, 2002 (382 days) = 6.68m (JP: 1.91m, Overseas: 4.77m) [ 1 holiday]

One extra holiday and Wii U still tracks under Gamecube. That is amazing...

 

[KingSnake]

I think it's time for Nintendo to leave the home console market and focus solely on handhelds.

Their next handheld should have an HDMi socket with the option to use the handheld as a controller when connected to a TV/monitor. Both the Vita and 3DS prove you can have a great home console experience on handhelds.

Time for Nintendo to embrace this future.

I think we should first see how will Vita TV fare in western markets before being so categorical about that.

 

[Nikodemos]

I think we should first see how will Vita TV fare in western markets before being so categorical about that.

Vita TV's performance would have little bearing on a Nintendo console. Sony has created the VTV as a cheap userbase enhancer and to squeeze more mileage out of the Vita hardware (probably to satisfy production allotment minimums). It's by no means a purpose-designed piece of hardware.

 

[maquiladora]

nvm

 

[RoombaDance]

So have we figured out what's causing the huge predicted losses in Q4? Is that 35 billion yen or so just the amount it takes to keep Nintendo running for a quarter in the absence of any meaningful sales? Or is something else causing the losses this quarter - the share buyback or heavy R&D investments?

The ¥179B in inventories = basically 6m Wii U in warehouse?

 

[Captain Smoker]

So have we figured out what's causing the huge predicted losses in Q4? Is that 35 billion yen or so just the amount it takes to keep Nintendo running for a quarter in the absence of any meaningful sales? Or is something else causing the losses this quarter - the share buyback or heavy R&D investments?

Maybe it has to do with the share buyback, they're going to spend 125 billion yen (that's 1,2 billion dollars), but I don't know how this is accounted.

Also:

"The annual earnings and dividend forecasts were modified on January 17, 2014 to reflect a lower-than-expected sales outlook from
the initial forecast, based on the sales performance in the year-end sales season and afterward. The modifications are outlined in the
&#8220;Notice of Full-Year Financial Forecast and Dividend Forecast Modifications.&#8221;
In the fourth quarter, we expect sales to decrease significantly due to seasonal factors as the year-end sales season concludes. Total
selling, general and administrative expenses, which include fixed costs, are expected to exceed gross profit, leading to a bigger
operating loss. Also, we expect the yen to rise from the end of the third quarter to the end of the fiscal year, reducing exchange gains
and ordinary income. We expect an annual net loss primarily due to the reversal of deferred tax assets in the third quarter in relation
to the losses carried over from the previous fiscal years mainly in the United States. Exchange rate assumptions for the fourth quarter
as well as the end of the fiscal year are 100 yen per U.S. dollar and 140 yen per euro."

The ¥179B in inventories = basically 6m Wii U in warehouse?

Wii U and 3DS.

They sold their hardware for 18.000 to 19.000 yen in the last two quarters, so that's probably around 9.500.000 hardware units (and more).

 

[Kandinsky]

Lower the price of your 3DS software you morans!.

 

[liger05]

Lower the price of your 3DS software you morans!.

This!!!

 

[KingSnake]

Lower the price of your 3DS software you morans!.

I think they need to rethink completely the pricing model for both 3ds and Wii U. I hope they learnt this lesson from the poor software sales. The premium software model is dead. Unfortunately this will probably mean also microtransactions and more DLC:

 

[shinra-bansho]

I would assume the bulk of unsold inventories is Wii U hardware; so I don't know if using the unit value of the hardware that's actually selling (ie not the Wii U) to determine the number of units works.

 

[Deku Tree]

Can Nintendo turn things around? I am not sure.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Q3 results YoY comparison, figures in JPY, millions:

FY14:
Revenue: 302,538
Operating profit: 21,700
Ordinary profit: 54,318
Net profit: 9,595

FY13:
Revenue: 352,039
Operating profit: 23,302
Ordinary profit: 70,004
Net profit: 42,541

YoY comparison:

Revenue: -14.1%
Operating profit: -6.9%
Ordinary profit: -22.4%
Net profit: -77.4%

Non-operating income (interest on cash/investments, FX gains) comparison:

FY14 - 32,862
FY13 - 24,210

 

[Like the hat?]

Lower the price of your 3DS software you morans!.

How is there not like a "player's choice" line of ds/3ds/wii/wii u games?

I know there was like what, six wii games that got a Player's Choice version, but come on. There should be a good number of games sitting on shelves for $20.

 

[maquiladora]

Can Nintendo turn things around? I am not sure.

Iwata's 4 month wage reduction is clearly what potential Wii U customers have been aching for. It will sell like hotcakes now....

On a more serious note, hopefully we'll hear something meaningful tonight from the company strategy meeting.

 

[Nikodemos]

Can Nintendo turn things around? I am not sure.

Uhh...

Of course they can. They just need to shake themselves out of this self-sufficiency that seems to shroud their decisions as of late.

YoY comparison:

Revenue: -14.1%
Operating profit: -6.9%
Ordinary profit: -22.4%
Net profit: -77.4%

YoYch. I guess FY14 isn't over yet, so there's still a chance for better figures, but no chance of even equaling '13. Not with that net profit gap. A small consolation is that most of the spending went into expanding and streamlining dev capacity, so it's an investment in the future.

 

[CassSept]

Maybe it has to do with the share buyback, they're going to spend 125 billion yen (that's 1,2 billion dollars), but I don't know how this is accounted.

Not really, this doesn't explain the planned 35 billion yen operating losses for the quarter at all.

 

[Cheerilee]

I would assume the bulk of unsold inventories is Wii U hardware; so I don't know if using the unit value of the hardware that's actually selling (ie not the Wii U) to determine the number of units works.

Nintendo went into the holidays saying they were going to sell 9 million units in the fiscal year.

Unless that claim was a bluff, Nintendo has 6.5 million units that they weren't able to sell.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Not really, this doesn't explain the planned 35 billion yen operating losses for the quarter at all.

Then read the text beneath that quote where it is explained.

 

[CassSept]

Then read the text beneath that quote where it is explained.

Yeah well it's kind of captain obvious as far as operating income goes. Maybe it's because they never had as bad of a quarter as Q4 is shaping up to be (sales-wise), but 35 billion yen on operating income (which is simply what says there, profits-costs, it does not really explain much) sounds huge. And currency gains/losses and deferred tax have no impact on operating cost.

Was mostly referring to your line about share buyback though.