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Nintendo Shares Drop 5% Following Pre-TGS Announcements, Analysts Comment

SmokyDave

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Dec 8, 2008
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SovanJedi said:
It was a second sequel to our Flash game series "Knightfall". It's a shame as me and my two coworkers really went out of our way to make it value for money, considering some of the negatives that would immediately be associated with such a title (e.g. "Free Flash game turned into pay-for game", lengthy RPG-like on system full to the brim with casual games). There was a shit-ton of content for sure, especially for an iPhone game.

Without going into specific numbers (which would make you a nosey Parker) the game didn't even make a tenth of its developer cost back for our publisher.
I wasn't prying for numbers, I wanted the title so I could grab it from the appstore. I make a habit of buying any games made by GAFfers. Thanks for the info though, sorry it didn't work out for you this time.
 

FoneBone

Member
Jun 7, 2004
15,207
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SmokyDave said:
No, we don't. You have no idea what the development or marketing budgets are for iOS. We have no idea. If they make a 20th of the profit at a 40th of the cost, that's a win. We cannot be sure without concrete numbers from a range of sources.
What some miss is that "a 20th of the profit at a 40th of the cost" suits certain developers much, much better than others. I'm not clear that you're actually saying this, mind you, but the argument that larger companies would benefit from switching to smartphone-only development is dubious.
 

JasoNsider

Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,943
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wsippel said:
The investors in question (probably only a single fond manager) neither knew nor cared about the actual announcements. Stock dropped before anything was announced.
I know this post/sentiment is going to get missed so I'm re-quoting.

Sensational headline + "analysts" strike again. Just keep remembering people, no matter what happens to stock down OR up, don't try to find direct relationship between it and product.
 

Princess Skittles

Prince's's 'Skittle's
Dec 7, 2007
8,267
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SovanJedi said:
It was a second sequel to our Flash game series "Knightfall". It's a shame as me and my two coworkers really went out of our way to make it value for money, considering some of the negatives that would immediately be associated with such a title (e.g. "Free Flash game turned into pay-for game", lengthy RPG-like on system full to the brim with casual games). There was a shit-ton of content for sure, especially for an iPhone game.

Without going into specific numbers (which would make you a nosey Parker) the game didn't even make a tenth of its developer cost back for our publisher.
Sorry to hear that, I actually enjoyed Knightfall (similar to Mr. Driller?).

I noticed it's not even on the app store anymore.

Anyway, you'll hear more of these stories coming out. There are thousands more of these than there are of Angry Birds.
 

Evlar

Banned
Dec 22, 2006
14,387
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It's a shame to see an investment bubble pull down established industries. This tide's going to rise, then it's going to roll back out, and the next epoch of game development will be built by those who survive it.

When I say the tide will roll back out, I mean investors will eventually stop throwing money at nickel-game publishers and pulling money from well-established companies when they realize you really can't grow an industry the size of the video game sector on the back of ad-driven content and $1 trial-ware.
 

SovanJedi

provides useful feedback
Oct 20, 2006
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SmokyDave said:
I wasn't prying for numbers, I wanted the title so I could grab it from the appstore. I make a habit of buying any games made by GAFfers. Thanks for the info though, sorry it didn't work out for you this time.
Relax! That last bit about you being nosey was just a joke. I threw it in because I don't like being overly serious. No hard feelings. :3

And FYI, I don't think the game is still even up on the App Store anymore. For some reason our publisher has it removed and we've absolutely no idea why. :(
 

Proven

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Jan 19, 2007
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Look at what the investors are saying! The top Wii-type system sellers aren't there! That's what they're talking about. There's no Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Wii Play type stuff that caters to people who don't play a lot of video games. Mario Kart is seen as more a system sustainer than seller, and Mario 3D Land is seen as inferior to New Super Mario Bros. Heck, even I see it as more like Mario Galaxy than anything else, and while it'll sell millions, it's not the same as NSMB.

The only thing Nintendo has released like this is Nintendogs and Cats, but that's not enough by itself. This conference was awesome for us. Game after game that we'd want to play, ending with a hardcore megaton. But it's not the games they want to play! They want to see game after game that will make old people and moms turn their heads, as they see that as the only way to get DS/Wii levels sales.

All the Nintendo has confirmed is that they won't completely die; but they didn't die during the GCN and people within their own company consider it a failure compared to what they once were, or later became.
 

jman2050

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May 18, 2005
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When the other shoe drops on the App Store gaming model it's going to happen very fast and very hard.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Feb 17, 2005
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3DS has been a flop, between the post launch period and the price cut. Since the price cut, 3DS is doing well.

Coming next: Nintendo season (aka Q4), with 2 main Mario titles 0_o and the strongest 3rd party lineup released on a Nintendo console during holidays in Japan.

Flop incoming!

Well, no.
Same mistake. Again.
 

saichi

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Apr 8, 2010
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Dance In My Blood said:
There's nothing garunteed about 3DS success anywhere this holiday season. With the inevitable hardware revision and the monstrous dual-stick add-on I think you'd have to be pretty crazy/uninformed to buy a 3DS. Or just the kind of person that likes owning multiple iterations of Nintendo handheld I guess.
revision is not confirmed although likely. However, general public wouldn't care since they are likely unaware. They will see 3DS with a good price point and some attractive games for the holidays.
 

Dave Long

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Jun 8, 2004
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This is really crazy. The 3DS is no Virtual Boy. It will sell very well this holiday season because it's NEW and people like NEW, especially for their children.

Unless Apple has an iPod Touch that they plan to sell for $169 or less that no one knows about, the 3DS will be the top Christmas item for many kids. Investors and analysts and just plain wrong this time.
 

beril

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Aug 25, 2010
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Pachterballs said:
right.

lol.


I can't fucking wait to play an awesome game.


I mean; isn't like the biggest game on 3DS a port of a N64 title? OOT? How old is that again? Doesn't really show much faith in THAT platform. I mean, what's next; star fox 64 oh. wait. right. And I'm sure Nintendo will be supplying many more port of old games. Its practically the Nintendo way.


2 can play this game.
Wanting to play the game is one thing. Comparing it to a new mainline Resident Evil or Monster Hunter is something completely different. And it does not prove that big productions are viable on the iOS. It is a port and from what I can see it looks pretty much identical to the PSP version apart from the controls
 

1-D_FTW

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Jun 14, 2006
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boris feinbrand said:
I don't think anyone denies that IOS and Android are posing a challenge to dedicated handheld games. But the similarities in argument to the PC vs console debates right before the PS2 launched seem all too similar. PC was doomed because ultimately you could get a console cheaper and yadda yadda...

The reality is, that PC gaming is alive and kicking, mainly thanks to some great innovations like STeam. If Nintendo and/or Sony manage to differentiate themselves enough from IOS, they can secure their status quo for the foreseeable future.
But don't ask me what that would be. I personally would say games that can't be played in a competent matter on IOS, which they are allready releasing so...
That's the problem. It's hard. And it needs a visionary approach. Not more crud tacked onto the last model.

As for Steam, most Steam lovers didn't really like Steam, its store, or DD until the major sales started happening. I bought Valve games there because it was required. Price was the key to getting people to accept things. This is what caused it to become the revolution it became in the PC space. Everything about it was built on that foundation.

iOS has already taken hold of pricing and gone into the gutters with it. The fact that Nintendo refuses to even try and play in that space (and create a viable market in the 10 -20 dollar range - a range that could be plenty profitable once you start eliminating manufacturing/shipping/retail cuts/second hand sales) is their folly. With each passing year, the ipod becomes more and more entrenched with kids.

This is why the 3DS is a disaster. They locked themselves into another generation of not being competitive with market directions. Whether or not Sony is going to be a lot more aggressive with Vita remains to be seen. But by trying to preserve the moronic market that is retail (and all the overhead/used games) that go with it, they've chosen short-term profit margins over needed reform.

No one even knows how successful they could have been, but it's a long-term disaster to have not even tried. The DS needed to be ditched and a re-imagined handheld its successor. Putting necessary changes off for another generation may be insurmountable.
 

Cipherr

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Dec 15, 2007
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wsippel said:
Rovio company wide revenue:

July to December 2010: $7 million
January to March 2011: $20 million
I think the stranger thing though is that throughout all of this pretending that Rovio isn't the exception to the rule, also the discussion acts as if AB wasn't a lightning in a bottle moment also.

Im not saying its not possible, but I dont see them replicating their success on that scale at all.
 
Jan 30, 2006
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jman2050 said:
When the other shoe drops on the App Store gaming model it's going to happen very fast and very hard.
I agree.

I have a shit ton of £0.69 and £0.99 games. I played them for an hour or so.
My DS, 3DS games i play for 10's of hours.



wsippel said:
Rovio company wide revenue:

July to December 2010: $7 million
January to March 2011: $20 million

LOL

If Nintendo put a Mario Kart Mobile or Mario World Mobile on the app store at £1.99.
I reckon they do those level of sales in a week.
 

Cygnus X-1

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Mar 7, 2007
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GuiltySpank said:
We're not witnessing the decline of Nintendo, we're witnessing the decline of the dedicated mobile gaming device. We'll really see this confirmed once PS Vita flops.

Dedicated mobile gaming is fast becoming a niche.
Let's hope you're wrong.
 

mAcOdIn

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Oct 28, 2007
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Who cares about investors, they only care about constant growth, Nintendo was overvalued and at a position that was impossible to maintain and now they're coming back down to reality. The people selling now are smart, yet not as smart as those who sold before the 3DS, Nintendo will never make more money than it did with the DS/Wii combo. Ever. Even if they released their games on everything they would now no longer make money off the hardware, no longer make money by granting a software license to other publishers and in turn they'd have to pay Apple or whomever, or raise the price to cover the fee, to be on their store or to release games on their platform. And just making their own system and releasing their shit on other platforms will just erode the need for Nintendo's own platform leading to them getting out of the HW business anyways. This was Nintendo's high and people should sell Nintendo's stock as it will only go down and never reach this level again.

I'm not saying they're going out of business or even third party right now but there's no reason for Nintendo to have such a valuation. I dunno how long Nintendo does have but their days as a relevant HW manufacturer are numbered.
 

Orayn

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DKnight said:
For once I'm rooting for Nintendo. Mobile gaming is the enemy.
Only in this context, because goofy investors don't realize that it's a very different market that need not compete with traditional handhelds.
 
Jan 30, 2006
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mAcOdIn said:
I dunno how long Nintendo does have but their days as a relevant HW manufacturer are numbered.
WROOOOOOOOONG.gif

No son they are not. Not at all.

Even if the WiiU is only half as successful as the Wii.
It would still be their second best selling home console.
 

Guardian Bob

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"Nintendo succeeded by pulling in people who weren't gamers and their needs now are no longer being filled by Nintendo, they are happy playing games on their mobile phones,"

This is a good and big point.
 

gimz

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Nov 20, 2005
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i think what nintendo need now is to sail back to the red ocean, which it is doing right now
 

wsippel

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Cygnus X-1 said:
Still incredibly low. I have to say I'm surprised. Why are there companies getting so much credit?
That's how bubbles work. Remember dot-com? Smartphone and Facebook gaming (and social networks in general) is the same shit, and will probably end exactly the same.
 

evangd007

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Cygnus X-1 said:
Still incredibly low. I have to say I'm surprised. Why are there companies getting so much credit?
Investors think that they are the future and are pouring tons of market capital into them. Because investors aren't that smart. Hence why Nintendo shouldn't listen to them. Remember this guy?

Nintendo investor said:
I’m concerned about the falling stock price. I own stock, but I don’t own a single Nintendo product. I believe games are a waste of time. By the way, the reason I own Nintendo stock is because the name is nice, it’s in Kyoto and it was listed in the year of my birth.
 

Dave Long

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Cipherr said:
I think the stranger thing though is that throughout all of this pretending that Rovio isn't the exception to the rule, also the discussion acts as if AB wasn't a lightning in a bottle moment also.

Im not saying its not possible, but I dont see them replicating their success on that scale at all.
I think you're right. Angry Birds is a phenomenon and it will not be matched or exceeded on the iOS platform. It's one of those right game, right time situations but it doesn't prove that mobile gaming is big, just that Angry Birds is big.

Nintendo always have an ace up their sleeve that analysts and investors ignore, children. There will always be more kids to play Pokemon, Mario or Zelda. Nintendo makes affordable hardware for children. Parents recognize this and are comfortable with Nintendo.

As more and more parents grow up with Wii or DS, they will continue to turn to Nintendo for their children's videogame entertainment.
 

Cygnus X-1

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Guardian Bob said:
"Nintendo succeeded by pulling in people who weren't gamers and their needs now are no longer being filled by Nintendo, they are happy playing games on their mobile phones,"

This is a good and big point.
It is a big problem for the entire industry, not only for Nintendo. These casual gamers are getting apps for something close to nothing and generate very low incomes overall (and average). I wonder how long such business will last till the average player will start searching for less shitty gaming experience and till third parties will stop develop games for iOS.
 

jman2050

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May 18, 2005
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Cygnus X-1 said:
Still incredibly low. I have to say I'm surprised. Why are there companies getting so much credit?
This is what typically happens when the huge chunk of a particular market's valuation is speculative in nature.
 

SovanJedi

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DKnight said:
For once I'm rooting for Nintendo. Mobile gaming is the enemy.
Look, how about people just stop making other platforms "enemies" and enjoy everything for what they are?

If this generation has taught me anything about gaming - and I've learned a LOT about gaming for definite this gen, since I'm now part of it in some capacity - it's that there ought to be a place for everything and everyone. I love nearly everything about Nintendo and I always will and I never ever want them to go away, but now that I'm open to other experiences from the lightest of casual iDevice games to the biggest blockbuster (or blockbuster wannabe) AAA magic-core supreme HD titles to the glorious (and begrudgingly depressing) rate my Steam backlog is growing, I'm happier than I ever have been with gaming.

In one direction I have God of War 3, in the other direction I have Tiny Wings, in yet ANOTHER direction I have Machinarium and Super Meat Boy, and in the middle I have Mario Galaxy and Xenoblade and Skyward Sword. This can work. It's working now. I just wish people wouldn't wish death and villainy to everything else, and that goes to analysts and forum posters alike.
 

mAcOdIn

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Oct 28, 2007
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DefectiveReject said:
WROOOOOOOOONG.gif

No son they are not. Not at all.

Even if the WiiU is only half as successful as the Wii.
It would still be their second best selling home console.
And what evidence is there that it'd even do half as well? And what does that matter when I just say "I don't know how long they have but I know their days are numbered?" I don't think this coming generation will be Nintendo's last but I foresee them losing ground steadily until they give up on hardware.

Personally, I believe the Wii-U will be a ridiculously hard sell, I believe they'll get most of the loyal Nintendo fans back, those who stuck with them through the N64 and GC but I believe they will have an even harder time for getting the casuals than last time and a harder time getting Sony or Microsoft's customers than last time. Nintendo would just have to execute on every front so magnificently that it'd be studied in schools for years and if the 3DS is an example of their train of thought currently that is just not happening. Sorry but Nintendo is incapable of making the necessary changes in vision to compete in the modern gaming market. Regardless this generation I think Nintendo will be ok, it's the later ones that you gotta watch for.
 

evangd007

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Jun 27, 2009
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madmaxx350 said:
Is this article a Joke?
Nope, it just shows once again that gaming industry news will always suck because gamers know little about business, journalists know little about gaming, and tech heads only give a damn about Apple products.
 

Evlar

Banned
Dec 22, 2006
14,387
1
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Cygnus X-1 said:
It is a big problem for the entire industry, not only for Nintendo. These casual gamers are getting apps for something close to nothing and generate very low incomes overall (and average). I wonder how long such business will last till the average player will start searching for less shitty gaming experience and till third parties will stop develop games for iOS.
It's an investment bubble. These publishers will keep going as long as they get investment dollars to fill the gap between their costs and their sales income. This will persist until investors discover the model is unsound... which may take a while.
 

roddur

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Jul 28, 2010
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the new 3DS slide pad (in my opinion ugly looking) gives the idea that there will be a hardware revision soon or later. that means a lot of people are going to wait for it. may be investors are taking that issue into account and not impressed, and thinking nintendo will fail to reach the profit margin.

nintendo messed up at the pricing, design. in these days of competition the margin for error is very slim and investors not being smart enough making the whole situation bad for nintendo.

*my 2 cents*
 

Respawn

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Nov 4, 2010
6,250
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Shigeru Miyamoto, wielding a toy sword and shield raised a laugh, but a series of 3DS game images depicting Miyamoto and Iwata as a pair of young lovers was met with silence.
That had me in stitches for some reason lol. I guess I was picturing it in my mind.
 

evangd007

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Jun 27, 2009
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SovanJedi said:
If this generation has taught me anything about gaming - and I've learned a LOT about gaming for definite this gen, since I'm now part of it in some capacity - it's that there ought to be a place for everything and everyone.
Most people would agree with your sentiment, but mobile gaming is getting vilified currently due to the prevailing opinions that everyone in the industry should go mobile/social or go out of business.
 
Aug 14, 2006
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The_Technomancer said:
Not for developers. Angry Birds has brought in about $50 million and been downloaded 250 million times. And that's the top of the top sellers.
I posted this in the other thread, but just for good measure (and to back you up here!), I'm posting it here too.

To better show how pathetic this app store revenue is in comparison to traditional handhelds, let's do a quick and dirty comparison.

As of July 7th 2011 (Apple WWDC Keynote) The iOS App Store had generated $3.6 Billion ($2.5 Billion paid to developers after Apple's 30% cut) in revenue in total since its launch in 2008.

Mario Kart DS alone has generated $621 million in revenue (20.70 million units sold as of December 2010 @ $30)

One DS game alone has generated over one fifth of the revenue generated for developers by the entire App Store over the course of its history (Oh and that includes all non game Apps as well)
 
Jan 30, 2006
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Evlar said:
It's an investment bubble. These publishers will keep going as long as they get investment dollars to fill the gap between their costs and their sales income. This will persist until investors discover the model is unsound... which may take a while.

They may do, but companies like Nintendo have cash reserves.. lots of them and make profit.

mAcOdIn said:
Nintendo have been around the longest of any past/present manufacturers. They know what they need to do.
 

mAcOdIn

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DefectiveReject said:
Nintendo have been around the longest of any past/present manufacturers. They know what they need to do.
Then they've done a great feint by making everyone think they can't by failing to do so or even lay the groundwork for generations! That's impressive.