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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]

I think Nintendo will rush both games out the door unfinished honestly. It's what they did with Windwaker and a lot of other gamecube games. This is why panic mode nintendo is horrible because we're going to end up with rushed games that aren't finished that could be much better.

This is, sadly, the most realistic scenario. In the West, Nintendo at least had Metroid Prime as their big title for holiday 2002, but since there was no market for it in Japan, they needed TWW as a tentpole release for the year there and the damage was done.
 
Talked with Gamasutra colleagues. Looked at original quote on the 38%. Given historical data I have here, I come up with:

Down 37.5% -> 59.5K Wii U in January 2013
Down 38.4% -> 45.9K Wii U in January 2013

So there is a fairly big range in there. 55K is a nice figure in the middle, but it's more like 52±7K

You can't be serious, jvm. It could be WORSE than 55k?

I don't know; what was the GameCube selling on a monthly basis back in the day?

I think there are very real issues with the core device and who exactly the target market is.

It's not a generational leap. And there's a justified perception of poor third party support going forward.
Ergo: There's no value proposition for the market that built the PS3 or 360 installed bases.

Meanwhile, the hook they've pinned their hopes on is difficult to convey and simply not going to be as compelling as waggle.
Ergo: There's no value proposition for the market that built the Wii.

There's a value proposition for the Nintendo fan - it will have Nintendo games, it has NSMBU.

The GameCube was selling about ~150K a month mid 2002, ~120K a month mid 2003, ~100K a month mid 2004, ~80K a month mid 2005, ~40K a month mid 2006, and discontinued by 2007.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
So Wii was a fad. U just had to prove it.

"Wii was a fad" is probably what many or most people in the gaming world are going to be saying; if only because most people in the core gaming world spent the last generation trying to convince themselves Wii had to be a fad.

Honestly, I think it's more likely that Wii may end up having been a pre-iPod MP3 player, and pre-iTunes digital music store. Nintendo helped discover and highlight a huge potential market. Wii was a good product that leveraged it for a while. But other products and platforms, like smartphones and tablets, ended up capitalizing on that market even more.

Nintendo would not be the first company to discover a new product or new demographic, yet fail to capitalize fully on it in the long run. The problem here might be that they are trying to see if there's a niche they can still fit into.

On the whole, it could be that Nintendo has been in a dangerous position for generations now. Wii was essentially a saving throw to buy time that did work, but they're not in any better of a position now.
 

Sandfox

Member
Assuming that Nintendo have some kind of plan for righting this ship, they're going to get one shot at it and one shot only, and it has to happen soon.

The sooner the better but if they make something that's must have for consumers it doesn't necessarily need to happen before the other consoles release.
 
2X8iNV2.jpg

:lol
 

Pociask

Member
So Wii was a fad. U just had to prove it.

Just like the PS2 was a fad? After all, the PS3 sold worse, so clearly, ergo, quid pro quo, etc., etc., fad.

Anyway, yeah, call me crazy, but I think that Nintendo has already seen what a disaster their launch has been. They know what kind of numbers have been moving through the channels. They know that the software sucks, the OS is slow, and that they're missing out on a lot of key third party titles.

I don't know if THEY know that the screwed up back in 2008-2009 by not expanding development studios, or by releasing meaningful content for the expanded audience they drew in initially. Hopefully, they've figured that out too.

They seem to be reacting as well as they could, given the cards they have. We know they've got an E3 blow-out coming. And for all the deserved talk about how much hype the PS4 and xbox361 will suck up, the fact is, they'll both be supply-constrained at launch (and fighting over the same market). Nintendo has the chance to come in, lower the price on the Wii U, and say, hey - you want a (relatively) new brand new console? Get the one with 3d Mario, 2d mario, mario kart, all your old favorites, and new ones too, blah blah blah.

Regarding positive word of mouth, I don't know, I just see a lot of people very happy with what off-tv play is offering. I think this could be Nintendo's killer feature (they certainly didn't expect that, as they thought a second window would be the hook). I think as more people get the Wii U, it could snowball.

So that's my reason for cautious optimism. Of course, Nintendo could bungle it all. They certainly have bungled it so far!
 
Nintendo needs to show casuals that apart from the gamepad features, the console is also capable of waggle 2.0 with HD graphics. I think this has been hidden by the emphasis on the gamepad, which is a great feature and should be marketed, but their previous success should not be forgotten.

And yes off tv play is a killer feature, I know, I have one. :(
 
The other two crashing and burning is a Nintendo fan's wet dream, I get that, but you can bet they're going to have a lot more help making sure that happened than Nintendo had, and the only people Nintendo have to blame for that lack of support are themselves.

Seriously, I'm a huge Nintendo fan but its disgusting seeing some people almost hoping the other two do miserably to validate Nintendo in some way for not being a complete screwup right now.
 

Azure J

Member
Nah, it won't disappear.

It just won't grow fast.


I think the sanest option for the conservative Nintendo company is either super aggressive "panic mode" Nintendo or super conservative.

I could totally see Nintendo taking their ball, going home, focusing on 3DS to build profits and eeking some out from WiiU to last long enough (maybe 4 years) to hold off the demands to develop mobile and then deliver their next gen console.

New console out fall 2016.

You know, it's only 3 months in (I'm going to be using this line a lot, I can feel it), but I'm slowly beginning to think that maybe Wii U will in fact have a shorter lifespan.
 

TheSeks

Blinded by the luminous glory that is David Bowie's physical manifestation.
I'm pleasantly shocked Donte must Cry is #6, but I want to see the sales numbers to see how good/bad that is.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Oh, that wasn't a rhetorical question - I'm actually asking what numbers it was pulling if anybody has them.

If it was around the 100-150K mark I'd say it's "just" a lack of software and too high a price or the economy stupid.

55K strikes me as far deeper issues with the appeal of the product at play.

The supply constrained 360 and the $599 PS3 were selling ~5x more in their respective Januaries.

I do agree there are lots of fundamental problems with the system that I think will hamper it throughout its lifetime.

It's just that I think like... software is still priority #1 to get it up from where it is. If it was $150 it'd probably be doing more, but I don't think it'd do a notably large amount more. If it had 3D Mario, Super Smash 4, and Mario Kart 8 all release this month, it'd probably hit at least 150-200K.
 

DasMarcos

Banned
Nintendo said that Reggie was wrong when he said that. And Nintendo cannot afford to lose billions and billions of dollars due to one systen, even for one quarter. That's too much of a loss, and I doubt it would help that much.

Yup Yup.

It'll be interesting to see what Nintendo's next move will be after this. What can they do/offer to drive sales up? And more interestingly, how do they try to avert this fiasco for February and March?
 

Hero

Member
Yeah, and the situation isn't ENTIRELY dissimilar to Disney though... because for a very short period of time, they were floundering after traditional animation was floundering in this country and they were relying strictly on their Pixar partnership (before they made the hard deal with Pixar). It was an old dinosaur having trouble adapting to modern times, but they finally did the hard thing and made the deal work. And now Disney is on a lot better footing, reaching out and grabbing LucasArts and shit like that.

Nintendo might be in for another down period where they have to re-evaluate their priorities. As much as many of their hardest core supporters don't mind eighty three Mario games every week, and as much as they say it doesn't matter as long as they're good, the truth is that is not enough to draw in the new customers Nintendo needs to stay relevant.

Without the mass market appeal of wiimote, they have to rely on games that provide potential customers with a wide range of big potentials, and without third party support (which is most certainly partially Nintendo's fault as well), they have to do it themselves. You can release a game like Xenoblade and not even try to market it (to say nothing of its disastrous territorial release state). Are they going to let X die the same way?

They have to be willing to take those risks. They have to be willing to put SOME Mario (and Zelda and Donkey Kong and whatever) games in a freezer and tell themselves 'you know what, this is painting us into a corner, and we can't always be this company. We can be that company at times, but the modern market demands we become something else as well.'

And that doesn't mean abandoning core Nintendo philosophies like being fun for the entire family. It means challenging themselves to come up with new ideas that are unrelated to what they've done before, sometimes that tells customers that this is a system they MUST own because they can't get anything like this experience anywhere else. If a customer wanted to play some Mario games once in a while, the current status is they can just buy a 3DS and pay $160 and be done with it. They have to make Wii U special, and the pad - like I've been saying for a while - is really a traditional controller with DS functionality. It's good for some things, but it's not going to change the game. And so they should have turned their attention to changing the game with their software and partnerships...





Yeah I really liked it. It's no perfect game, but it's the first really true traditional jRPG I loved in ages (I liked Tales of Vesperia, which is probably the last time I really liked one close to this way). Glad it was made.



I mean they made SOME investments, but I have to say the ones I've seen have been pretty poor... at least from a global perspective. They have to think bigger then they have been thinking. Hardware gimmicks have always had the same problems: to the people with the type of low attention span that NEW GIMMICKS are the only thing that draws them in, eventually those gimmicks will run out of steam for them and eventually you'll run out of gimmicks to sell them. And in the absence of that, software is where you must turn. And that's where Nintendo has failed to adapt.



Oh, I'm sure. But, so far, the announcements they've made have pretty much been exactly what I've been saying: I'm excited for some of them, but they're not going to sell your system to new customers. They're going to sell your systems to established hardcore Nintendo fans, and that has always been a diminished group of individuals. I count myself among them, as harsh a critic as I can be sometimes (I hate because I love), but most people don't.

Yeah, I think the biggest thing Nintendo could've done was invest in a few more development studios for western style games. After Rare, SK and Retro only one of those is still working for them but we haven't heard or seen what they're working on at all. Nintendo needs to diversify their portfolio and since they have even admitted there are genres they're not good at, it should have been a priority to see the trend of popular western style games this past generation.
 

serplux

Member
This is, sadly, the most realistic scenario. In the West, Nintendo at least had Metroid Prime as their big title for holiday 2002, but since there was no market for it in Japan, they needed TWW as a tentpole release for the year there and the damage was done.

Man, the GC was absolutely horrid in terms of software droughts. There was literally a 3 month drought in software titles almost every year. Especially the first year, when it went from January to June with no Nintendo titles.
 
Honestly, I think it's more likely that Wii may end up having been a pre-iPod MP3 player, and pre-iTunes digital music store. Nintendo helped discover and highlight a huge potential market. Wii was a good product that leveraged it for a while. But other products and platforms, like smartphones and tablets, ended up capitalizing on that market even more.

Hm, not really, wii's USP was motion and fitness. You might be thinking of the DS?
 

1-D_FTW

Member
Talked with Gamasutra colleagues. Looked at original quote on the 38%. Given historical data I have here, I come up with:

Down 37.5% -> 59.5K Wii U in January 2013
Down 38.4% -> 45.9K Wii U in January 2013

So there is a fairly big range in there. 55K is a nice figure in the middle, but it's more like 52±7K

Wow.
 

kpjolee

Member
It's different because Wii was unprecedented. Doing the same thing again but worse isn't taking a risk it's being narrow minded and thinking you don't have to try.

I am saying it was not different in what Nintendo attempted to achieve with tablet controller. Nintendo hoped that its controller would be as big selling point as Wii's motion control, but did not work that way.
 

Verendus

Banned
Yeah....this is kind of scary. I'm sure things will pick up....but this system will get slaughtered when the new systems are out. WiiU has not captured the fervor that the Wii did.

I pretty much want to say:

"It's over Johnny. ITS OVER!"

But lets give it more time.
Nothing is over! Nothing.

You just don't switch it off! It wasn't my console war! You asked me, I didn't ask you! And I did what I had to do to win! But core gamers wouldn't let us win! And I come back to the gaming world and I see all those fans at their forums, boycotting me, mocking me. Calling me Krillin and all kinds of vile crap! Who are they to protest me? Who are they? Unless they've been Wii and been there and know what the hell they're yelling about!

We were in this conference in LA and this kid comes up, this kid carrying a Wii U box. And he says "Game, please, game!" I said no. He kept askin', yeah, and Reggie said "Yeah." And I went to get a couple of combs, and the box was wired with an ultra high GPU, and he opened up the box, fucking blew his body all over the place. And he's laying there, he's fucking screaming. There's pieces of him all over me, just...like this, and I'm tryin' to pull him off, you know, my friend that's all over me! I've got blood and everything and I'm tryin' to hold him together! I'm puttin'... the guy's fuckin' insides keep coming out! And nobody would help! Nobody would help! He's saying, sayin' "I wanna go handheld! I wanna go handheld!" He keeps calling my name! "I wanna go handheld, Iwata! I wanna catch my Pokemon!" I said "With what? I can't find your fuckin' games! I can't find your games!"
 

serplux

Member
Seriously, I'm a huge Nintendo fan but its disgusting seeing some people almost hoping the other two do miserably to validate Nintendo in some way for not being a complete screwup right now.

Oh, in no ways do I want Sony and Microsoft to fail, since they play a vital role in the market and provide different gaming experiences. I simply fear of a market crash.
 
I think people are forgetting Wii U still has no games. The sales are atrocious but I'd be more worried if that were the case WITH games released for it
 
So Wii was a fad. U just had to prove it.

The Wii was definitely a fad. It was a console for the family crowd and it sold well initially and then it slowed a lot in the latter years of it's life when the family crowd moved onto smart phones and tablets. It was not your typical gamers console at all and the sales in it's latter life show it.
 

Portugeezer

Member
This is why Nintendo was equal at blame for Rayman delay.

Nintendo is responsible to protect its platform, they should have made sure the deal to work. Look what MS did to protect its platform early, threw money at JPRG , GTA DLC to make its platform vital and attractive . That 3rd party momentum is part of what it's enjoying right now.

On the other hand you have Nintendo that just stood there with folded arms while the only game worth buying in a horrible desert of software gets lost as exclusive and delayed.

Nintendo has money in its war chest, but it totally chose not to protect its platform. And when they did spend money , they spend money on a sequel that BOMBA sales wise. You can afford to do that when you have a luxury to afford a Bomba.

losing Rayman was a big lost to Nintendo and showed there failure to handle third parties. Nintendo fans AGAIN pointed there guns at a wrong target, writing petition to Ubisoft? They should be putting pressure on Nintendo, Its there platform you bought and are responsible for this piss poor support.

The previous Rayman game sold poorly, it's not that important to Nintendo's sales, to us on NeoGaf Rayman was big, but not the masses.
 

Branduil

Member
Hindsight is 20/20, but I wish Nintendo had just released a Wii follow-up with better motion controls and better graphics. They'd still need to correct the software problem, but I think a machine with big leap forward in graphics and motion control would be doing better than the Wii U is right now.
 
They have to have something in the bag, no? I mean Nintendo isn't some omnipresent deity that has something ready for each scenario. They could be actually be sitting on nothing. But we know from Nintendo directs that sometimes Nintendo sit on announcements just for the sake of announcing it when they feel like its right.

Nintendo could have announced all then Luigi games for the 3DS last year, why now? Same with DKCR 3D and monolithsoft title X. And Bayonetta 2. All came out of the blue.

This isn't addressing the whole point your discussing in regards to expanding and partnerships. But in terms of games, I wouldn't be surprised.

Interesting.

Would Sony and / or MS let Nintendo make games for their systems if they dropped out of the hardware market or would they let them rot ?.
 
Seriously, I'm a huge Nintendo fan but its disgusting seeing some people almost hoping the other two do miserably to validate Nintendo in some way for not being a complete screwup right now.

Their opinion is that what is happening to the Wii U is a product of the economy. An odd refusal to acknowledge the clusterfuck that was the launch. Admitting that would be admitting Nintendo is somehow at fault, I presume.
 
Nintendo took a major risk with the origin Wii and paid off. Nintendo took another major risk with the Wii U and did not work....simple.
I have no doubt Wii U will survive this whole generation, but want to also see Nintendo dig out of this mess.
The only major risk they took was the damned gamepad. Every other decision made by Nintendo since the Wii U was shown over two years ago has been bland and risk averse as hell.
 

qq more

Member
Nothing is over! Nothing.

You just don't switch it off! It wasn't my console war! You asked me, I didn't ask you! And I did what I had to do to win! But core gamers wouldn't let us win! And I come back to the gaming world and I see all those fans at their forums, boycotting me, mocking me. Calling me Krillin and all kinds of vile crap! Who are they to protest me? Who are they? Unless they've been Wii and been there and know what the hell they're yelling about!

We were in this conference in LA and this kid comes up, this kid carrying a Wii U box. And he says "Game, please, game!" I said no. He kept askin', yeah, and Reggie said "Yeah." And I went to get a couple of combs, and the box was wired with an ultra high GPU, and he opened up the box, fucking blew his body all over the place. And he's laying there, he's fucking screaming. There's pieces of him all over me, just...like this, and I'm tryin' to pull him off, you know, my friend that's all over me! I've got blood and everything and I'm tryin' to hold him together! I'm puttin'... the guy's fuckin' insides keep coming out! And nobody would help! Nobody would help! He's saying, sayin' "I wanna go handheld! I wanna go handheld!" He keeps calling my name! "I wanna go handheld, Iwata! I wanna catch my Pokemon!" I said "With what? I can't find your fuckin' games! I can't find your games!"
amazing
 

EDarkness

Member
I think now is a good time for Nintendo doom and gloom. It's hard to believe that they weren't prepared at all with the Wii U. Nintendo has to do something and quick.
 
The Wii was not a fad as the thing it capitalized on with continue to be a part of gaming for a long time. A fad completely disappaears after a few years because it wasn't important to the market at all.
 

Scum

Junior Member
Would it really be such a bad idea for NCL to unshackle NoA and NoE, kick 'em up their arse and get them to go hunting for talent to help out, sooner rather than later?
 

Brazil

Living in the shadow of Amaz
The other two crashing and burning is a Nintendo fan's wet dream, I get that, but you can bet they're going to have a lot more help making sure that doesn't happen than Nintendo had, and the only people Nintendo have to blame for that lack of support are themselves.

In a perfect world consoles wouldn't exist and 3DS, Vita and mobile would reign supreme.

Oh and:

The other two crashing and burning is a Nintendo fan's wet dream, I get that, but you can bet they're going to have a lot more help making sure that doesn't happen than Nintendo had, and the only people Nintendo have to blame for that lack of support are themselves.

Baconsammy just called me a fanboy?

l to the ol
 
You know, it's only 3 months in (I'm going to be using this line a lot, I can feel it), but I'm slowly beginning to think that maybe Wii U will in fact have a shorter lifespan.
Yah 4 years is very short already though.

I feel like if they shorten it any more they might have to scrap work done on some games (Zelda?) because the decision on a super super short lifespan (3 years or so) still wouldn't likely come for another 6 or more months.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
How do they gain any sort of hype for the Wii U at this point? We get to see next-gen games next Wednesday. Sony and MS could get people hyped enough about what's coming that the Wii U becomes an odd footnote in console history.
 
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