• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,400
1,567
685
Nobody wants that console, half those numbers and you might be spot on.
6 million people wanted it enough to buy it thus far. And you yourself are saying that you suspect 200,000 more want it in the U.S. between now and end of June.

I'm pretty good at math, and I'm pretty sure all that is a greater amount than "nobody".
 

Glorified G

Member
Jan 24, 2012
7,966
0
0
Well I went with my most optimistic prediction haha, but yes I think it's entirely possible. It's Mario Kart....

Yeah the wiiu is not the wii... but the did i think the wii did 1.3 mil in the april/may kart launched
"It's NSMB" was probably posted before Wii U launched and citing numbers how it was the selling single-system game in history when laucnhed on the Wii. Or looking at DKCR being a big seller and replicating with DKTF. Or with 3D Mario looking at Galaxy selling millions.... you get the idea.

It was also Mario Kart on the N64 and Gamecube which continued to trend lower and lower hardware sales. I think it's safe to look at the Wii as a outlier.
 

x-Lundz-x

Member
Jan 14, 2011
8,500
0
0
6 million people wanted it enough to buy it thus far. And you yourself are saying that you suspect 200,000 more want it in the U.S. between now and end of June.

I'm pretty good at math, and I'm pretty sure all that is a greater amount than "nobody".
You might be good at math, but terrible at understanding metaphors. Just a figure of speech man.

Zelda WW will move units!
Oh, the W101 is going to be amazing, that WILL move units for sure!
Oh, you just wait until 3DLand, that will do it!
Just wait for DK, that's the ticket!
Oh, no worries MK8 will come in and save the day...

Very few people (better!) want this console, nothing ever coming out is going to change that. If you can't tell by now I think people are generally tired as fuck of Mario. Mario is not a system seller anymore like it used to be. Especially on a console that is very overpriced for what it offers.

If Nintendo would just man the fuck up and use some of that Warchest money and offer the console for $199.99, with these games coming out it might be a different story.
 
Isn't the reason for the missed software targets the missed hardware targets? However, as the userbase accumlates new hardware sales account for a lower proportion of total hardware sales which in turn lessens the impact of monthly hardware sales on monthly software sales. Even if they have underperformed relative to expectations, they are in absolute terms at a good level.

Missed hardware in a sense does lead to lower software sales, but what also matters is how engaged the customers who own the hardware are. If you aren't selling to the kind of people who buy a lot of software, you have to sell a huge number of units to make major strides in software sales.

The PSP had this problem for example. The PSP shipped around 80 million units, but in its last few years of life it had almost no active buyers of software, since the people who picked it up moved on to buying lots of games for consoles or other platforms instead and stopped buying PSP games.

This is why its late-gen software in the West performed a lot like Vita software does these days, because they had around the same number of active buyers despite the astronomical install base difference.

The 3DS buying population in the West for third party games (which is what you get licensing fees for) means it's worth bringing them over, but I'm not sure it's worth throwing away $40+ of profit per hardware unit to get potentially marginal increases in software sales.

Mpl90's argument about hardware momentum is probably the strongest one for taking a hit on profits in order to sell more units, because you want a platform to be doing well by the time the next one comes around. However, that's also achievable by simply releasing the next hardware earlier. They do need to do something to make sure it can last until they can get the next hardware out the door, so they obviously need to do some level of incentives. Let me restate that I'm not saying they should do nothing, but rather that they should be careful as opposed to potentially loss leading.

That said, if they actually don't feel enough strain from investors to be worried about having poor financial results then what I'm saying doesn't really matter, since then the urge to prove out that handhelds are still a viable profit generator to investors in order to ensure they can keep releasing them without getting booted out of their jobs is not pertinent.

Also, if first party sales are higher in the west isn't that a good for Nintendo since they make much more profit on first party software sales? We've also had two first party games this month with Smash Bros and Pokemon remakes later in the year. Seems decent enough for this year and there's likely to be more announcements at E3.
My assumption is that they can't actually float 3DS software at sufficient levels to necessarily capitalize on the hardware gains they make in the West the same way I think they very easily can in Japan.

That's not to say they shouldn't make any hardware initiatives, I certainly think they should, but that I feel they should be much more choosy about the decisions they make for the West than those they might make in their home market.

Any particular reason why you think it would do as well as Wii U rather than doing as well as PS4 has? Nintendo have a perfect record on handhelds with all of them being successful. They also seem likely to once again have a complete monopoly on handhelds and probably won't repeat the pricing mistake.
Here's how handhelds have evolved gen over gen.

The segment as a whole is down 82% gen over gen, and the 3DS is currently far behind the PSP at the same point in its lifecycle (about 50% down gen over gen in this comparable year), much less the DS which was doing about four times as well as the 3DS is now.

Handhelds in the West are in very, very heavy decline, and the 3DS is no exception.

I don't think they have room to burn off more of their remaining audience by not giving them a new device for a long time given how much they imploded already.

Now, they were so high up that at least the 3DS isn't a catastrophic disaster like the Vita, but in the West it's mediocre at best, so I think they need to really focus on being protective of their position and do what they can to protect the position of dedicated handhelds. Given how the market for consumer electronics has shifted to much quicker device changes, and the longer a device lasts the more outdated it becomes, I think sitting this long would be very painful.

I missed this whole thread. I guess the numbers are pretty solid now? If so, here's some comps.

Year Over Year
Code:
Console   2014    2013   %Change
XB1        115             
360         71     130      -45%
PS4        199             
PS3         35     102      -66%
WIU         49      38       29%
WII         18      42      -57%
3DS        106     113       -6%
NDS                 48      
PSV          3      20      -85%
PSP                  7     
                        
Family                  
MSFT       186     130       43%
SONY       237     129       84%
NINT       173     241      -28%
                        
HAND       109     188      -42%
CONSOLE    487     312       56%
Gen over Gen
Code:
Console   2014    2007   %Change
360                174     
PS2                194     
WII                360     
PS3                 82      
TOTAL      487     810      -40%
                        
Handheld  2014    2008   %Change
NDS                415     
PSP                193     
Total      109     608      -82%
And here's the always exciting Powerhouse ™ 3DS vs PSP race:
Code:
        3DS 2014  PSP 2008  NDS 2008
January       97       230       251
February     153       243       587
March        159       297       698
April        106       193       415
May                    182       452
June                   337       783
July                   222       608
August                 253       518
September              238       537
October                193       491
November               421      1570
December              1020      3040
             515      3829      9950
 

scytheavatar

Member
Jul 30, 2008
2,561
0
0
Anyone else sort of feel bad for Phil Harrison? Kinectless Xbox One will improve sales, but the Xbox One seems so far behind the PS4 ATM that it's not easy to see what else Phil Harrison can do for the Xbox One to catch up with the PS4. Feels a lot like he's being set up as the fall guy.
 

Evenflow

Member
Aug 21, 2006
427
0
970
"It's NSMB" was probably posted before Wii U launched and citing numbers how it was the selling single-system game in history when laucnhed on the Wii. Or looking at DKCR being a big seller and replicating with DKTF. Or with 3D Mario looking at Galaxy selling millions.... you get the idea.

It was also Mario Kart on the N64 and Gamecube which continued to trend lower and lower hardware sales. I think it's safe to look at the Wii as a outlier.
Fair enough. But like I said it's been 6 years since the last Mario Kart on a console, it's certainly going to raise more attention to the WiiU than anything you listed which all had realeases within a few years and don't have the selling power of Kart to begin with...MK8 is on the same level as GTA5 after so many years between releases. N64 sold 20 million plus in the USA alone, was a big success here, mario kart had alot to do with that. Double Dash was not well recieved due to the mechanics being off putting to casuals, and the gamecube suffered for it. But hell even if MK8 can bring sells inline with the gamecube I think everyone agrees that would be a massive improvement for the U, and I think it is very much possible.... I obviously was not assuming Wii like sells at all.
 

Morfeo

The Chuck Norris of Peace
Jan 21, 2013
11,853
3
495
Norway
You might be good at math, but terrible at understanding metaphors. Just a figure of speech man.

Zelda WW will move units!
Oh, the W101 is going to be amazing, that WILL move units for sure!
Oh, you just wait until 3DLand, that will do it!
Just wait for DK, that's the ticket!
Oh, no worries MK8 will come in and save the day...
I agree with your general point, but to be fair, nobody ever said W101 would move any units, and only delusional fanboys though DKC or WW would do it. Mario 3D World was the only one that had any serious chance of that, and it failed. I think MK8 will fail too, but we dont need to exaggerate the stupidy of those who dont.
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,400
1,567
685
You might be good at math, but terrible at understanding metaphors. Just a figure of speech man.

Zelda WW will move units!
Oh, the W101 is going to be amazing, that WILL move units for sure!
Oh, you just wait until 3DLand, that will do it!
Just wait for DK, that's the ticket!
Oh, no worries MK8 will come in and save the day...

Very few people (better!) want this console, nothing ever coming out is going to change that. If you can't tell by now I think people are generally tired as fuck of Mario. Mario is not a system seller anymore like it used to be. Especially on a console that is very overpriced for what it offers.

If Nintendo would just man the fuck up and use some of that Warchest money and offer the console for $199.99, with these games coming out it might be a different story.
Oh I know full well what you were doing. Those types of figures of speech have simply grown very tiresome so I gave it the response it deserved.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
500
You might be good at math, but terrible at understanding metaphors. Just a figure of speech man.

Zelda WW will move units!
Oh, the W101 is going to be amazing, that WILL move units for sure!
Oh, you just wait until 3DLand, that will do it!
Just wait for DK, that's the ticket!
Oh, no worries MK8 will come in and save the day...

Very few people (better!) want this console, nothing ever coming out is going to change that. If you can't tell by now I think people are generally tired as fuck of Mario. Mario is not a system seller anymore like it used to be. Especially on a console that is very overpriced for what it offers.

If Nintendo would just man the fuck up and use some of that Warchest money and offer the console for $199.99, with these games coming out it might be a different story.
But man-ing the fuck up isn't a very good business strategy. Nintendo is trying to minimize Wii U's negative impact and maximize profit margins so they can bide time until the Next Big Thing (QoL, new handheld, etc.) Wii U has just elevated itself out of a net loss per unit, why would Nintendo want to plunge the company back into a new one? :-(
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,400
1,567
685
But man-ing the fuck up isn't a very good business strategy. Nintendo is trying to minimize Wii U's negative impact and maximize profit margins so they can bide time until the Next Big Thing (QoL, new handheld, etc.) Wii U has just elevated itself out of a net loss per unit, why would Nintendo want to plunge the company back into a new one? :-(
Yeah there are times when pumping the install base is more important than maximizing profit. This is not one of those times. See also lack of Vita or PS3 price cuts.
 

Memorabilia

Member
Oct 25, 2013
4,205
56
380
Why do Lego games sell better on XBO than PS4? Seems like the only ones that do this month too.
My guess would be possibly bc the Xbox brand has a slightly younger and/or slightly more family focused target demographic due to Kinect. Anecdotal evidence I keep hearing generally indicates parents buy the Xbox at least partially with Kinect games for their kids in mind. Meanwhile core gamers generally seem to view Kinect as useless. So, families who play Xbox together may end up buying slightly more Lego games.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
You know I think Nintendo having Minecraft on Wii U available from say launch would have raised the baseline of the console. Not a lot mind you but some significant amount, 5 - 6% maybe

I mean if they got it down to like $250 with a minecraft pack at launch it could've sold much better. I guess it's all hindsight though :\
 

Some Nobody

Junior Member
Aug 8, 2013
7,489
2
365
I agree with your general point, but to be fair, nobody ever said W101 would move any units, and only delusional fanboys though DKC or WW would do it. Mario 3D World was the only one that had any serious chance of that, and it failed. I think MK8 will fail too, but we dont need to exaggerate the stupidy of those who dont.
This, except I didn't think 3D World had a chance of saving Wii U. MK8 does, but what about Mario made you think that.
 

Sydle

Member
Oct 13, 2006
11,662
0
0
Anyone else sort of feel bad for Phil Harrison? Kinectless Xbox One will improve sales, but the Xbox One seems so far behind the PS4 ATM that it's not easy to see what else Phil Harrison can do for the Xbox One to catch up with the PS4. Feels a lot like he's being set up as the fall guy.
Isn't he overseeing LiftLondon, kind of spearheading Microsoft's cloud and mobile game strategy?

Rumor has it the may show up to 4 games soon. I assume they'll work across all Windows devices.

Seems like a good place to be when the CEO is behind gaming, mobile, and the cloud.

Did you mean Spencer?
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
You're the type that dunks on toddlers, aren't you?
This made me laugh a lot. Think I may use this line in actual real-life conversations.

Anyway, thanks for the breakdown of the console sales Aqua (current and last gen). I predicted a drop but everything dropped way more than I thought it would.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
Levels of Dead:

Level I: On-Life Support -> Wii U
Level II: Vampire -> Dreamcast before discontinuation
Level III: Zombie -> Vita
Level IV: Mummy -> Ouya
Level V: Dust -> Nvidia Shield

Maybe switch examples for Lvls I and II

Need a graph to confirm :)
 
Sep 23, 2004
14,345
2
1,380
Levels of Dead:

Level I: On-Life Support -> Wii U
Level II: Vampire -> Dreamcast before discontinuation
Level III: Zombie -> Vita
Level IV: Mummy -> Ouya
Level V: Dust -> Nvidia Shield

Maybe switch examples for Lvls I and II

Need a graph to confirm :)
The DC was trending under the Wii U? I thought it was doing better in comparison at this point in life, month to month and LTD?
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
500
The DC was trending under the Wii U? I thought it was doing better in comparison at this point in life, month to month and LTD?

Wii U, April 2014 - Approximately 49K

Wii U, LTD - 2.35 million


Dreamcast, April 2001 - 61K

Dreamcast, September 1999 to April 2001 - 3.29 million
Dreamcast, September 1999 to February 2001 (aligned with Wii U) - 3.10 million
 

Aaron Strife

Banned
Oct 10, 2006
26,804
0
0
I don't know how this relates to the U.S. and it's an internal report from Nintendo so it could be completely skewed (iow meaningless) but I recall a Nintendo of France report saying that Mario Kart 8 generated a lot of interest among owners of the original Wii, so I think it might have a decent impact in the U.S. Enough to outsell the Xbox One for at least two months, maybe!
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
2
1,405
I don't know how this relates to the U.S. and it's an internal report from Nintendo so it could be completely skewed (iow meaningless) but I recall a Nintendo of France report saying that Mario Kart 8 generated a lot of interest among owners of the original Wii, so I think it might have a decent impact in the U.S. Enough to outsell the Xbox One for at least two months, maybe!
i don't know if the game will be that popular to outsell the xbox one the month that platform is discounted by $100. there will be some demand that normally might have gone into may boosting numbers in june, as well as the increased number of people the new price point will appeal to.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
500
All this Dreamcast talk reminds me...haven't compared it to GameCube in a while!



But first, some inspirational quotes by Mr. Iwata and company:


“GameCube sales were bad worldwide"
- Yoshihiro Mori (former CFO and former Board Member), 2003

“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”
- Satoru Iwata, 2003

"It [the Wii] would be a complete failure if we didn't sell more units than the Nintendo GameCube."
- Satoru Iwata, 2005

"When we launched GameCube, the initial sales were good, and all the hardware we manufactured at that time were sold through. However, after this period, we could not provide the market with strong software titles in a timely fashion. As a result we could not leverage the initial launch time momentum, and sales of GameCube slowed down."
- Satoru Iwata, 2006

"I do not intend to declare how many Wii we will be selling today, but Wii will be a failure if it cannot sell far more than GameCube did. In fact, we shouldn't continue this business if our only target is to outsell GameCube. Naturally, we are making efforts so that Wii will show a far greater result than GameCube."
- Satoru Iwata, 2006

"I was lucky everything worked so quickly [with the Wii being so successful]. For the longest time I wasn't sure what would happen first: that we'd see success with the new console, or that I'd be fired."
- Satoru Iwata, 2008

"Maybe the reason we were able to make the markdown decision [for the 3DS] is our lesson from Nintendo GameCube. Therefore, in that sense, it was slightly a personal decision, meaning that the current executives, who are the ones who make the decisions, all experienced, 'there was a chance for the Nintendo GameCube but we were not able to capitalize on it.'"
- Satoru Iwata, 2011



GameCube:

January 2002 - 62K

February 2002 - 78K

March 2002 - 111K

April 2002 - 82K


Wii U:

January 2013 - 57K

February 2013 - 66K

March 2013 - 68K

April 2013 - 37K





GameCube:

January 2003 - 81K

February 2003 - 166K

March 2003 - 163K

April 2003 - 100K


Wii U:

January 2014 - 49K

February 2014 - 82K

March 2014 - 71K

April 2014 - .48K




GameCube LTD (November 2001 - April 2003) - 4.01 million

Wii U LTD (November 2012 - April 2014) - 2.35 million
 

Aaron Strife

Banned
Oct 10, 2006
26,804
0
0
i don't know if the game will be that popular to outsell the xbox one the month that platform is discounted by $100. there will be some demand that normally might have gone into may boosting numbers in june, as well as the increased number of people the new price point will appeal to.
Totally true and yet the titanfall bundle is a much better deal.

The new sku/price cut is like the realization of GAF asking for a Wii U without the gamepad even at the same price Nintendo is selling it for on their website with the gamepad
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
I don't know how this relates to the U.S. and it's an internal report from Nintendo so it could be completely skewed (iow meaningless) but I recall a Nintendo of France report saying that Mario Kart 8 generated a lot of interest among owners of the original Wii, so I think it might have a decent impact in the U.S. Enough to outsell the Xbox One for at least two months, maybe!
in June?
nah

now in France, probably, hell it probably already is outselling it/is really close over there anyway :p
 

Zalman

Member
Aug 5, 2013
16,666
0
0
twitter.com
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”
- Satoru Iwata, 2003
Why did he start thinking this again?
 

Imperfected

Member
Jul 17, 2013
12,888
0
0
Seattle
It's simple: Sony PR doesn't want to dig itself into a potential hole.

If Sony was in the habit of making detailed PR releases like Microsoft every month / told us exact PS4 sales all the time, then the one month they decided not to do so because of low PS4 sales, the lack of PR would reflect poorly on them.

Instead, Sony releases a simple statement through Twitter like "PS4 is the number one selling console!" to both acknowledge NPD but also free itself from any liability / expectations.
I think people get the wrong impression because of how big of a deal we make of it here on GAF. The actual Sony PR has been fairly reserved; even when they broke out the trumpets for the big record-breaking sales announcements, they just reported the sales numbers in a relatively matter-of-fact manner and thanked consumers for supporting them, they weren't doing sales comparisons to competitors or anything like that.

I hope they continue in that way. As fun as it is to revisit the "first to 10,000,000 wins" pictures and sound-bytes from previous generations, I've always said that anyone who needs to tell people that they're winning probably won't be winning for long.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
I should note that my comments here don't apply to Japan.

In Japan they're the default main dedicated gaming platform, so any sales they get are quite likely to result in a strong long tail of third party software sales even if Nintendo themselves has to let up on 3DS development to support other initiatives.

In the West, while third party software moves some amounts, it's really marginal compared to Japan, so I think each additional unit sold is less obviously a major win for future revenue and profits.

Like in Japan I think they could even just loss lead on the hardware by a fair amount and still get a profit out of each unit sold. I don't feel that's true in the West.

I do think from an accounting perspective though it's better to lose potential revenue on a new game than to lose actual money on the hardware, since you at least make money when you sell a piece of profitable hardware even if the person who buys it only ever goes on to buy used games.

And yes the turn around from basically being a non-digital system to a system with a viable digital platform is one of the best moves they made for the 3DS. Great margin enhancement, and gives developers a new, lower risk angle to sell on the system, which helps increase volume and variety of content.
Your argument is sound, I can't deny that, but I still think it's possible. I've referenced Japan because Nintendo did that over there, so there IS a possibility they'll do something similar over here. Still, in the case, I think we wouldn't get 5 games in a monthly selection like June's - max 3 - and certainly we wouldn't see games not even released in there. Mostly legacy stuff and more recent successful games, in order to decrease the negative impact on revenue as much as possible. It's also true that, since Nintendo sells most of the software in the West, that would actually mean that they could still profit while giving away a small amount of legacy titles / more recent stuff per month. Again, this all to assure there is some momentum from the old to the new platform. And again, not the only thing they have to do in order to have the momentum, but certainly something which could and should help.
Certainly, they need to value carefully how to do it over here. They could also release a new revision, in place of OG 3DS, and do nothing else (seeing the recently opened thread, maybe this is a possibility)...or do both: 3DS XL Promotion for Summer, revision around this Fall, in order to keep customers' interest for enough time.

About this year's forecasts: 3DS hardware is optimistic: given last months sales, I was more thinking about 10 millions, not 12. Pokémon will surely help, and it shouldn't be alone this Fall / Holiday, unless the "secret 3DS game" (eh :p ) is out in 2015 and not this year, but I can't say to be sure it'll be enough to reach 12 millions. A revision substituting OG 3DS would make it more plausible. 3DS software seem sound given the upcoming games, just like their Wii U forecasts.
 
May 31, 2011
3,415
0
0
If there's one thing I know, under no circumstances should a console Mario Kart be underestimated... even if it's on WiiU :)

Mario Kart really is a different beast on home consoles, truly the biggest system seller Nintendo has. The handheld titles just don't generate the same excitement, mainly due to the lack of couch local play which is it's bread and butter. It's been 6 years, and the last one sold 35 million... and those insane wii sells of 25 million for fiscal year 08/09 was largely on the back of Mario Kart... MK8 is the biggest release this year on any system.

With that all said, it's an evergreen that is not at all frontloaded, it will sell well for years and probably see it's best sales this holiday. But I still predict:

May(2 days of kart)
mk8 500k
WiiU 150k

June
mk8 500k
WiiU 250k
I dunno dude. Not so long ago i was talking about the Mk trailer and a friend of mine was like. 'Wtf are they seriously still doing these mario karts?' He was almost upset with hearing the number 8. I think that for the previous installments there was a lot of nostalgia buys. They remembered the good old n64 days and since most people already had a wii because of wiifit or whatnot they just bought it for fun. Now for most people MK8 isnt that much different from the wii version and except for a few fans, i really dont think its gonna attract the 'casual' crowd.. Lets hope i'm wrong though..
 

Game Guru

Member
Dec 14, 2010
3,263
0
0
Why did he start thinking this again?
Wii Sports. It pretty much sold people on the Wii and it's the second best selling game ever. Iwata isn't exactly wrong that one game can sell hardware... the issue is that this generation's Wii Sports is Minecraft, which is on every system under the sun except Nintendo's and is the third best selling game ever. The best selling game ever... is Tetris, the original casual puzzle game.
 
Your argument is sound, I can't deny that, but I still think it's possible. I've referenced Japan because Nintendo did that over there, so there IS a possibility they'll do something similar over here. Still, in the case, I think we wouldn't get 5 games in a monthly selection like June's - max 3 - and certainly we wouldn't see games not even released in there. Mostly legacy stuff and more recent successful games, in order to decrease the negative impact on revenue as much as possible. It's also true that, since Nintendo sells most of the software in the West, that would actually mean that they could still profit while giving away a small amount of legacy titles / more recent stuff per month. Again, this all to assure there is some momentum from the old to the new platform. And again, not the only thing they have to do in order to have the momentum, but certainly something which could and should help.
Certainly, they need to value carefully how to do it over here. They could also release a new revision, in place of OG 3DS, and do nothing else (seeing the recently opened thread, maybe this is a possibility)...or do both: 3DS XL Promotion for Summer, revision around this Fall, in order to keep customers' interest for enough time.

About this year's forecasts: 3DS hardware is optimistic: given last months sales, I was more thinking about 10 millions, not 12. Pokémon will surely help, and it shouldn't be alone this Fall / Holiday, unless the "secret 3DS game" (eh :p ) is out in 2015 and not this year, but I can't say to be sure it'll be enough to reach 12 millions. A revision substituting OG 3DS would make it more plausible. 3DS software seem sound given the upcoming games, just like their Wii U forecasts.
Oh, to note, I'm saying what I think Nintendo *should* do, not what they *will* do.

Nintendo doesn't behave like a normal business so my ability to predict what they will actually do isn't especially good.

For all I know they will come out at E3 and announce there will be no 3DS successor until 2020 and they're going to focus 50%+ of their 3DS efforts on figurine games.
 

Asd202

Member
Jun 18, 2013
11,412
0
0
31
Poland
I think this Fall will be telling. There a lot of big games coming out this year if them don't move consoles than we can start to worry about dying industry.
 

Morfeo

The Chuck Norris of Peace
Jan 21, 2013
11,853
3
495
Norway
This, except I didn't think 3D World had a chance of saving Wii U. MK8 does, but what about Mario made you think that.
It didnt really make ME think that, but I would still say it was much more likely than with the other games on that list. After all, 3D Mario is proven to be a decent seller among hardcore audiences.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,215
The PSP had this problem for example. The PSP shipped around 80 million units, but in its last few years of life it had almost no active buyers of software, since the people who picked it up moved on to buying lots of games for consoles or other platforms instead and stopped buying PSP games.
The PSP always had low software sales since it was always a multimedia device rather than just a game device. 3DS software seems to be doing ok at the moment. Pokemon has sold 12M since October which is over a quarter of the userbase. It had a good software lineup last year and will have again this year. I don't see why that wouldn't continue. Not with Vita failing and the struggles of the Wii U and maybe now the Xbone. It is also Nintendo's best avenue for profit in the short term and so will likely be a priority for them to maintain support.

The 3DS buying population in the West for third party games (which is what you get licensing fees for) means it's worth bringing them over, but I'm not sure it's worth throwing away $40+ of profit per hardware unit to get potentially marginal increases in software sales.
I was thinking a $20(16%) price cut to $149. Increasing the buying population also doesn't just increase the revenue from licensing fees, it also increases the revenue from first party games.

Mpl90's argument about hardware momentum is probably the strongest one for taking a hit on profits in order to sell more units, because you want a platform to be doing well by the time the next one comes around.
I would say the Gamecube to Wii transition proves this to be false. The determinant of how a system sells is primarily how good it is in and of itself. Nintendo have a good reputation as an established platform provider. As long as they don't do something stupid to spoil that(like disappointing existing customers by pulling the plug on a system prematurely) any system they release has a chance to succeed on it's own merits.

Handhelds in the West are in very, very heavy decline, and the 3DS is no exception
The core handheld audience is children and enthusiasts and seeing as Pokemon is at 12M with the likes of Monster Hunter and Animal Crossing having good sales it seems that audience is pretty robust. What I think has fallen away is the adult handheld audience. Smartphones made the multimedia offerings from Sony redundant. Nintendo's offerings like Nintendogs and Brain Training which were designed more for adults also fell away. Handhelds to adults is always going to be a difficult sell.

The DC was trending under the Wii U? I thought it was doing better in comparison at this point in life, month to month and LTD?
I think it was doing better but Sega had thrown everything they had at it, Nintendo and Microsoft were about to enter the market and sales were likely to decline. Even if they didn't, Sega had a weak business model and were in debt. Even breaking even wasn't enough for them, they needed profit but there was no avenue for that and there was nowhere for them to go really as a Dreamcast 2 would have had even more difficulty against 3 competitors with more marketing power. That's not taking account the increasing development costs reducing profit even more. I would say it's more Sega failed than Dreamcast failed.

Wii U is at around 5-6M, it's on track to get to around 9M by next March which would be 2.5 years or halfway through a natural life cycle. With Zelda to come and whatever else they have coming it seems Wii U will get to between 15-20M. There's no new competitors on the horizon and if Nintendo can release get success with a new IP or two then they could get beyond 20M. Market conditions are also more favourable to them than Sega had since they a big price advantage over all their competitors, are the market leaders in Japan and Microsoft are struggling.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
The PSP always had low software sales since it was always a multimedia device rather than just a game device. 3DS software seems to be doing ok at the moment. Pokemon has sold 12M since October which is over a quarter of the userbase.
Software shipments worldwide launch aligned:

PSP 146 million
3DS 163 million

Software shipments outside Japan launch aligned:

PSP ????
3DS 102 million

Software shipments to Japan launch aligned:

PSP ????
3DS 61 million

Software sell-through in Japan launch aligned (Famitsu):

PSP 18 million
3DS 53 million

Sony needs to have shipped 44 million units of PSP software to Japan for 3DS overseas sales to be equal (not better, equal)