NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]

Remark

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I'm really curious on how next month is going to be like with the Xbox One having dropped down to $400 now.
 

Aquamarine

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I'm really curious on how next month is going to be like with the Xbox One having dropped down to $400 now.
Honestly? I think it's going to be under Wii U.

It was 115K this month. Slash at least 50K from that for May.


Wii U was around 49K this month. Bump that up at least 20K for Mario Kart 8.


And now you have a situation where Wii U > Xbox One for the month. It will get revitalized in June, though.
 

prag16

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Honestly? I think it's going to be under Wii U.

It was 115K this month. Slash at least 50K from that for May.


Wii U was around 49K this month. Bump that up at least 20K for Mario Kart 8.


And now you have a situation where Wii U > Xbox One for the month. It will get revitalized in June, though.
Only 20k bump for Kart (well, you said "at least", but...)? That would be an extremely abject failure I'd think, even with only two days of tracking...

Any stabs at Kart's opening? Again, tricky since it's only two days of tracking... I'd probably expect it'll chart at least.

I would also be careful about overestimating the effect this xbone "price cut" will have. It's a rebundling. And they're not undercutting PS4. As of right now I think PS4 still beats xbone in June. Could be wrong obviously; and may change my mind after E3.
 

theprodigy

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Only 20k bump for Kart (well, you said "at least", but...)? That would be an extremely abject failure I'd think, even with only two days of tracking...

Any stabs at Kart's opening? Again, tricky since it's only two days of tracking... I'd probably expect it'll chart at least.

I would also be careful about overestimating the effect this xbone "price cut" will have. It's a rebundling. And they're not undercutting PS4. As of right now I think PS4 still beats xbone in June. Could be wrong obviously; and may change my mind after E3.
I assume Aquamarine meant a 20k bump at a bare minimum, which is nonetheless enough to pass the Xbox One in this scenario.
So yeah, Wii U>Xbox One in May is pretty much confirmed unless Mario Kart 8 is the greatest bomba of this generation.

now whether Wii U>3DS or not is another question....
 

Aquamarine

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Only 20k bump for Kart (well, you said "at least", but...)? That would be an extremely abject failure I'd think, even with only two days of tracking...

Any stabs at Kart's opening? Again, tricky since it's only two days of tracking... I'd probably expect it'll chart at least.

I would also be careful about overestimating the effect this xbone "price cut" will have. It's a rebundling. And they're not undercutting PS4. As of right now I think PS4 still beats xbone in June. Could be wrong obviously; and may change my mind after E3.
Mario Kart 8 is already selling to a 2.35 million base of relatively core users, so I'm not that optimistic that a measly two days in the middle of a slow period will spike hardware sales to holiday levels.


Now with the massive 35 days of June 2014 Mario Kart 8 will have a real effect. It's just that I've been too optimistic with hardware predictions lately. And every time it comes to bite me when the results come in.

So I'm figuring that, in the worst case scenario, the initial two day bump will appeal to core users who already own the platform and can't wait to purchase it as soon as humanly possible. That's where the 20K baseline increase comes from, so in my opinion, it is pretty much guaranteed that Mario Kart will elevate Wii U to a level that surpasses Xbox One.

But I don't think it will actually hit a 20K bump. That's the minimum of what Mario Kart 8 can achieve throughout the month, and it makes a lot of assumptions about an extreme lack of ability to reach outside of the established core.

In terms of an actual range of hardware bumps, I would put May's results anywhere from 70K as the lower bound to 150K as the upper bound.


In terms of software sales? Kirby got 41K for two days so Mario Kart 8 should have no problem clearing the Top 10 chart given April's precedent. But yeah, pinpointing an exact NPD figure is very tricky.
 

prag16

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I assume Aquamarine meant a 20k bump at a bare minimum, which is nonetheless enough to pass the Xbox One in this scenario.
So yeah, Wii U>Xbox One in May is pretty much confirmed unless Mario Kart 8 is the greatest bomba of this generation.

now whether Wii U>3DS or not is another question....
If it had at least an extra week of tracking (instead of two measly days) I'd be very confident of 100k+ and being above 3DS. But that two day tracking issue throws a wrench in the works.

400k MK8 units in May + June and 250k consoles in May + June? Or does that sounds too high. Probably sounds too high. :(

EDIT: 3DW did over 500k in November/December, right? But of course, that was November/December. You're right, trying to pinpoint anything for May/June is extremely tricky especially for someone like me (who knows jack fuckall about these things).
 

Aquamarine

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GTA V sold like 100K this month. Games like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 didn't do all that well either.

So Mario Kart 8 should be able to chart quite easily if next month's chart follows the same path for a Top 10 minimum.
 

Hyperactivity

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Houston, Tx


GTA V sold like 100K this month. Games like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 didn't do all that well either.

So Mario Kart 8 should be able to chart quite easily if next month's chart follows the same path for a Top 10 minimum.
How did top 3/4 do?
I would say if its around 200-300k MK could break into that range or even get top 2 in either May or June
 

theprodigy

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GTA V sold like 100K this month. Games like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 didn't do all that well either.

So Mario Kart 8 should be able to chart quite easily if next month's chart follows the same path for a Top 10 minimum.
come on, give us Lego sales :p
 

Apophis2036

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Have MK8 commercials started yet in America ?, still not seen one in the UK which is extremely worrying this close to launch :/.

WiiU vs XBone for the June NPD is going to be very interesting as I'm not convinced the price drop is going to do much for XBone sales considering the console + Kinect + Titanfall + a $50 gift card was just $450 a few weeks ago.

The XBone is going to be an incredibly hard sell in the UK at £350 considering we could get the console + Kinect + extra official controller + 1 year of XBL Gold + Titanfall + game choice of either CoD Ghosts or Kinect Sports Rivals for £400 on Amazon a few weeks ago.

£299 will be the magic number to spark UK XBone hardware sales imo.
 

heidern

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While 106,000 is certainly much more than what I was expecting, I wouldn't call it "pretty good". Mediocre is a much better definition, sir.
Ok < Pretty good < good < very good < great

Last year Nintendo shipped around 12M. A 6% drop would mean shipments this year of over 11M which is at least pretty good. Sales in Japan aren't as good this year so far, but 3DS in US is doing pretty good.. I'd actually say that's very good since any system that can hit 50M within 5 years has had very good sales. It's not amazing like Wii/DS/PS2 but it's still strong.

I guess my main mindset is that this kind of stuff makes a bunch of sense in the front end of the generation when prices are pretty high, but once you have some pretty accessible options late-gen, it might make more sense to just focus on being a profitable company instead of driving an install base you might not be selling to for year on end.
It's a big assumption to say 3DS is late-gen. Nintendo cut the price a couple of months after launch but since then haven't cut it in what is now almost 3 years. Being able to hold up prices allows lifecycle to be extended. 360 went for 8 years and PS3 for 7 years. 3DS is viable this year and a price cut to $149 should ensure it is viable next year. A cut to $129 could allow it to be viable in 2016. Economies of scale and any improvements in manufacturing should allow these price cuts to be viable.

The more important figure is software sales. Currently 3DS is at 162M. Nintendo are aiming for just under 70M which would take it to around 230M next April which is above Gamecube and N64. Another 2 years similar would take it to around 370M which is comparable to GBA/SNES. As userbase increases there is chance software sales will be higher thatn 70M both this year and next.

I would pose the hypothesis that Nintendo would be better off betting on a Pokemon style phenomenon boosting 3DS rather than betting on a new handheld to drive sales in the short term. Doesn't even have to be as big as Pokemon.
 

Square2015

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So what was the no. 1 SW title (standalone)?

I need to update my list, I have a top selling games list going back to 1988 (no joke).
 

Orthogonal

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Watch Dogs has Lost a Lot of it's hype. I wouldn't expect too much from that games sales.
Hype has died, but it is also the only game in town for months. It will do really well.

I would not be surprised at 4+ Million for May.
 

SwiftDeath

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So what was the no. 1 SW title (standalone)?

I need to update my list, I have a top selling games list going back to 1988 (no joke).
If your list includes bundled games then easily TF XB1, if not maybe Yoshi?

Edit: Completely forgot that X360 version of TF did like 500k unbundled

Easily that
 

Aquamarine

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why is it that there's never amount of ps4s sold? just the title that it was the best selling console?
It's simple: Sony PR doesn't want to dig itself into a potential hole.

If Sony was in the habit of making detailed PR releases like Microsoft every month / told us exact PS4 sales all the time, then the one month they decided not to do so because of low PS4 sales, the lack of PR would reflect poorly on them.

Instead, Sony releases a simple statement through Twitter like "PS4 is the number one selling console!" to both acknowledge NPD but also free itself from any liability / expectations.


But the PS4 number is almost always directly leaked here at GAF, so it's really a non-issue. PS4 sold 200K this month.
 
mpl90 said:
Well, I'm proposing such an idea because it's something that they're actually doing it...in Japan, best 3DS territory by far. And, for June selection, there's even a title that will be released right in June (Pokémon Art Academy), among older titles. So, they're already giving up on part of their hardware revenue in order to let stay hardware sales on a good level over there. Moreover, the Recommendation Selection concept is actually something that IMHO is perfect for consoles around the 3rd / 4th year in the market: the software selection is big enough to have titles eligible for the selection, titles with still sales potential and old enough to not have an excessive negative impact on revenue, there are late customers who would love to get a console with many titles for cheap and, above all, games for cheap. Especially if you have different SKUs of the console: in 3DS case, the initiative would start for 3DS XL, while 2DS price would still be 129.99, as entry price for children. Making the console interesting enough for sales to not fall off a cliff even in later years is also often said to be proactive to assure the successor to that console can benefit from a base momentum, given by the older console. It's true that I think such a thought is overstated sometimes (Wii after GC, 360 after Xbox...or PS3 after PS2 in the opposite sense i.e. there are many other factors influencing momentum), but it's also true that it shouldn't be underestimated too much, especially if the successor doesn't represent a revolution compared to the past, like the Wii.

Still, I think the Western counterpart wouldn't go as far as actually giving away yet-to-be-released games, like happening in Japan, that's for sure.

...

Considering how eShop revenue increased a lot last year again, I think they will continue investing there, so no need to worry on that front :D
I should note that my comments here don't apply to Japan.

In Japan they're the default main dedicated gaming platform, so any sales they get are quite likely to result in a strong long tail of third party software sales even if Nintendo themselves has to let up on 3DS development to support other initiatives.

In the West, while third party software moves some amounts, it's really marginal compared to Japan, so I think each additional unit sold is less obviously a major win for future revenue and profits.

Like in Japan I think they could even just loss lead on the hardware by a fair amount and still get a profit out of each unit sold. I don't feel that's true in the West.

I do think from an accounting perspective though it's better to lose potential revenue on a new game than to lose actual money on the hardware, since you at least make money when you sell a piece of profitable hardware even if the person who buys it only ever goes on to buy used games.

And yes the turn around from basically being a non-digital system to a system with a viable digital platform is one of the best moves they made for the 3DS. Great margin enhancement, and gives developers a new, lower risk angle to sell on the system, which helps increase volume and variety of content.

It's a big assumption to say 3DS is late-gen. Nintendo cut the price a couple of months after launch but since then haven't cut it in what is now almost 3 years. Being able to hold up prices allows lifecycle to be extended. 360 went for 8 years and PS3 for 7 years. 3DS is viable this year and a price cut to $149 should ensure it is viable next year. A cut to $129 could allow it to be viable in 2016. Economies of scale and any improvements in manufacturing should allow these price cuts to be viable.

The more important figure is software sales. Currently 3DS is at 162M. Nintendo are aiming for just under 70M which would take it to around 230M next April which is above Gamecube and N64. Another 2 years similar would take it to around 370M which is comparable to GBA/SNES. As userbase increases there is chance software sales will be higher thatn 70M both this year and next.

I would pose the hypothesis that Nintendo would be better off betting on a Pokemon style phenomenon boosting 3DS rather than betting on a new handheld to drive sales in the short term. Doesn't even have to be as big as Pokemon.
Nintendo has constantly heavily missed their software targets and a lot of that is driven out of missing expectations in the West.

Basically I'm saying that moving software in the West is less useful because:

1.) Western software sales are much more heavily driven by first party titles than Japan.

2.) Western software sales are much less likely to stick around for the long run because the 3DS is the primary dedicated gaming platform in Japan, whereas it is definitely not in the West.

3.) I expect Nintendo's first party output to go down (and it already has unless they have tons of hidden announcements for imminent games) between Wii U support, QoL support, rising expectations, and working on the first wave of games for whatever future hardware they have.

Like moving to an extreme example of this situation, I think it makes sense for Sony to internally make Vita software in Japan, but zero sense to do so in the West.

In Japan they can train teams on low risk products that can actually make money and gives their audience something to do while Sony sees if they can get the PS4 going.

In the West it's simply throwing money out the window that could better be spent on PS4 games be they retail or digital.

To your first note, if the 3DS stays around for 7-8 years I expect its late life to do about as well as the PSP and its successor to go over about as well as the Wii U, at which point I don't think short to mid-term planning is relevant anymore because it's a moot business.
 

Square2015

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So we have:
1. Titan fall 360 500k+
2. Yoshi's New Island 3DS 90k
3. Infamous: second son PS4 82k
4. Titanfall XBO 77k

Of course we're missing the Lego titles, Ghosts, and the standard shovel ware.
 

Tabular

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If your list includes bundled games then easily TF XB1, if not maybe Yoshi?

Edit: Completely forgot that X360 version of TF did like 500k unbundled

Easily that
Not that I'm saying I disagree but do we know what Second Son sold including the bundle?
 

vinnygambini

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Nirolak's comment
Really enjoyed your post Nirolak, thank you for the read.

What do you think of Nintendo's FY15 guidance, are the targets attainable?

3DS HW guidance is optimistic to say the least. Another revision coming?
 

SwiftDeath

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Not that I'm saying I disagree but do we know what Second Son sold including the bundle?
I don't think there was a ISS bundle although Sugar suggested it did 1k in bundles but again that may have been a joke

If true it puts ISS at like 83k versus > 500k for 360 TF so yeah
 

shinra-bansho

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Really enjoyed your post Nirolak, thank you for the read.

What do you think of Nintendo's FY15 guidance, are the targets attainable?

3DS HW guidance is optimistic to say the least. Another revision coming?
I think these should be accurate; original forecasts, not revised.
Code:
		HW Fc	SW Fc		HW Act	SW Act		HW Diff	SW Diff
FY14/15		12	67
FY13/14		18	80		12.24	67.89		-5.76	-12.11
FY12/13		18.5	73		13.95	49.61		-4.55	-23.39
FY11/12		16	62		13.53	36		-2.47	-26
Their original forecasts have tended to be wildly optimistic. This year's seem much more realistic, but I figure it depends on whether the 3DS peaked last year with the release of the 2DS and Pokemon. They'll probably miss HW, given the state of Japanese sales, but if the userbase they have built continues to buy software at a similar rate as last year they could hit SW.
 

Evenflow

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If it had at least an extra week of tracking (instead of two measly days) I'd be very confident of 100k+ and being above 3DS. But that two day tracking issue throws a wrench in the works.

400k MK8 units in May + June and 250k consoles in May + June? Or does that sounds too high. Probably sounds too high. :(

EDIT: 3DW did over 500k in November/December, right? But of course, that was November/December. You're right, trying to pinpoint anything for May/June is extremely tricky especially for someone like me (who knows jack fuckall about these things).
If there's one thing I know, under no circumstances should a console Mario Kart be underestimated... even if it's on WiiU :)

Mario Kart really is a different beast on home consoles, truly the biggest system seller Nintendo has. The handheld titles just don't generate the same excitement, mainly due to the lack of couch local play which is it's bread and butter. It's been 6 years, and the last one sold 35 million... and those insane wii sells of 25 million for fiscal year 08/09 was largely on the back of Mario Kart... MK8 is the biggest release this year on any system.

With that all said, it's an evergreen that is not at all frontloaded, it will sell well for years and probably see it's best sales this holiday. But I still predict:

May(2 days of kart)
mk8 500k
WiiU 150k

June
mk8 500k
WiiU 250k
 

Loudninja

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So InFamous is nearly 600k in the US,nice increase for the game series. :)

InFamous 1 did a total of 192.7K the 2nd month
InFamous 2 was at 369,200 the first month.
 

vinnygambini

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I think these should be accurate; original forecasts, not revised.
Code:
		HW Fc	SW Fc		HW Act	SW Act		HW Diff	SW Diff
FY14/15		12	67
FY13/14		18	80		12.24	67.89		-5.76	-12.11
FY12/13		18.5	73		13.95	49.61		-4.55	-23.39
FY11/12		16	62		13.53	36		-2.47	-26
Their original forecasts have tended to be wildly optimistic. This year's seem much more realistic, but I figure it depends on whether the 3DS peaked last year with the release of the 2DS and Pokemon. They'll probably miss HW, given the state of Japanese sales, but if the userbase they have built continues to buy software at a similar rate as last year they could hit SW.
I'm thinking the same.

3DS Software targets seem solid, especially with Pokemon, Monster Hunter 4G, Yokai Watch 2, the inevitable Dragon Quest game in February or March and Super Smash to compliment everything.

3DS Hardware targets seem optimistic to say the least; my personal estimates were between 8-9 million. I'd wager that a revision is coming to compliment Super Smash release. No price cuts.

In the end, Nintendo might have their first profitable fiscal year in four years.
 
Really enjoyed your post Nirolak, thank you for the read.

What do you think of Nintendo's FY15 guidance, are the targets attainable?

3DS HW guidance is optimistic to say the least. Another revision coming?
I think these should be accurate; original forecasts, not revised.
Code:
		HW Fc	SW Fc		HW Act	SW Act		HW Diff	SW Diff
FY14/15		12	67
FY13/14		18	80		12.24	67.89		-5.76	-12.11
FY12/13		18.5	73		13.95	49.61		-4.55	-23.39
FY11/12		16	62		13.53	36		-2.47	-26
Their original forecasts have tended to be wildly optimistic. This year's seem much more realistic, but I figure it depends on whether the 3DS peaked last year with the release of the 2DS and Pokemon. They'll probably miss HW, given the state of Japanese sales.
Thanks.

I agree with shinra, they're the most realistic they've put out in ages, but it's possible they will miss them.

That said, I don't expect them to miss them by an overly large degree given the bottom hasn't completely fallen out of the system and they do have some decent software movers in the back half of the year with things like Pokemon, Monster Hunter, and Smash, but I think they need to have a couple more large movers to hit the mark or some solid overperformers (and it's reasonable to think they might).

They could unveil a new hardware revision that's a premium upgrade device, which would boost hardware sales even if it's not actually obtaining new customers. I think they're probably at the last time they could do something like that though.

My main pessimism would be that I feel the trend downward will continue since so far it has and I don't really see something that will obviously turn it around for future fiscal years, which is where I disagree with heidern's assessment that it could keep on adding 70+ million software units every year for year's to come.
 

theprodigy

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Yokai Watch will fill in a few million for 3DS software :p

If there's one thing I know, under no circumstances should a console Mario Kart be underestimated... even if it's on WiiU :)

Mario Kart really is a different beast on home consoles, truly the biggest system seller Nintendo has. The handheld titles just don't generate the same excitement, mainly due to the lack of couch local play which is it's bread and butter. It's been 6 years, and the last one sold 35 million... and those insane wii sells of 25 million for fiscal year 08/09 was largely on the back of Mario Kart... MK8 is the biggest release this year on any system.

With that all said, it's an evergreen that is not at all frontloaded, it will sell well for years and probably see it's best sales this holiday. But I still predict:

May(2 days of kart)
mk8 500k
WiiU 150k

June
mk8 500k
WiiU 250k
Wii U will do 400k across May+June? lol
 

heidern

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Nintendo has constantly heavily missed their software targets and a lot of that is driven out of missing expectations in the West.

Basically I'm saying that moving software in the West is less useful because:

1.) Western software sales are much more heavily driven by first party titles than Japan.

2.) Western software sales are much less likely to stick around for the long run because the 3DS is the primary dedicated gaming platform in Japan, whereas it is definitely not in the West.

3.) I expect Nintendo's first party output to go down (and it already has unless they have tons of hidden announcements for imminent games) between Wii U support, QoL support, rising expectations, and working on the first wave of games for whatever future hardware they have.
Isn't the reason for the missed software targets the missed hardware targets? However, as the userbase accumlates new hardware sales account for a lower proportion of total hardware sales which in turn lessens the impact of monthly hardware sales on monthly software sales. Even if they have underperformed relative to expectations, they are in absolute terms at a good level.

Also, if first party sales are higher in the west isn't that a good for Nintendo since they make much more profit on first party software sales? We've also had two first party games this month with Smash Bros and Pokemon remakes later in the year. Seems decent enough for this year and there's likely to be more announcements at E3.

To your first note, if the 3DS stays around for 7-8 years I expect its late life to do about as well as the PSP and its successor to go over about as well as the Wii U, at which point I don't think short to mid-term planning is relevant anymore because it's a moot business.
Any particular reason why you think it would do as well as Wii U rather than doing as well as PS4 has? Nintendo have a perfect record on handhelds with all of them being successful. They also seem likely to once again have a complete monopoly on handhelds and probably won't repeat the pricing mistake.
 

Evenflow

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Wii U will do 400k across May+June? lol
Well I went with my most optimistic prediction haha, but yes I think it's entirely possible. It's Mario Kart....

Yeah the wiiu is not the wii... but the did i think the wii did 1.3 mil in the april/may kart launched
 

x-Lundz-x

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Well I went with my most optimistic prediction haha, but yes I think it's entirely possible. It's Mario Kart....

Yeah the wiiu is not the wii... but the did i think the wii did 1.3 mil in the april/may kart launched
Nobody wants that console, half those numbers and you might be spot on.