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NPD Sales Results for September 2015 [Up2: Nintendo Numbers]

DarthWalden

Banned
Feb 11, 2014
3,270
0
360
Canada eh
I'm quite surprised that PS4 didn't win by a lot more this month. I thought that destiny marketing and those MGS4 legacy players would make this a massive landslide for the PS4.

October will be interesting with Halo 5 unchanged versus the PS4 price drop
 

Patapwn

Member
Jan 2, 2011
2,750
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490
Detroit
I'm quite surprised that PS4 didn't win by a lot more this month. I thought that destiny marketing and those MGS4 legacy players would make this a massive landslide for the PS4.

October will be interesting with Halo 5 unchanged versus the PS4 price drop
How much did the ps4 win by?
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
7,806
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0
Bahrain
It's a long way to go until Uncharted 4.
But I'd take a wild guess and say that there will be quite some marketing for that game.
I know, but Metal Gear's performance got me thinking, maybe Uncharted was only big in Europe because the franchise never appealed to US consumers anyway, & the PS4 won't change that.
 
Jul 7, 2014
13,608
0
0
United Sates
I'm questioning the growth Uncharted 4 might have in the US too, I thought it might show substantial growth, but unless Sony does a massive marketing campaign, I'll be conservative with my estimates.
MGSV has no correlation to Uncharted 4 whatsoever. I think part of the problem with MGSV is that it isn't really a game you want to jump into without playing the previous games first. That is why I didn't buy it despite it looking amazing.

Uncharted is a much more accessible IP and has a collection on PS4 now for those that are interested. A collection that is now bundled for free.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
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Santa Destroy
Has anyone looked at Ground Zeros + Phantom Pain and compared that launch to MGS4 launch yet?

One could probably (try) and make an argument GZ is really park of TPP at least in terms of development resources as it was 1 project/budget.
 

BadWolf

Member
Apr 15, 2010
26,126
6
0
MGSV has no correlation to Uncharted 4 whatsoever. I think part of the problem with MGSV is that it isn't really a game you want to jump into without playing the previous games first. That is why I didn't buy it despite it looking amazing.
Yeah, that's a real issue for quite a few people and a big problem with telling a continuous story for years and years.

Though the gameplay in MGSV is so damn good that I would still give it a near perfect score even if the story (which I also loved) was completely removed.

The last MGS game came out a while ago, maybe some of the fans have moved on?
Don't know about elsewhere but in Japan the numbers for MGS are scarily consistent. It's like it has this super loyal fanbase that buys the series no matter what. MGSV was no exception.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
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0
Italy
twitter.com
XBOX 2003 VS X360 2007 VS XB1 2015

YTD
[360] 2,223,000
[XB1] 1,958,000
[XBX] 1,401,000

2° September
[360] 528,000
[XB1] 281,000
[XBX] 172,000


PS2 2002 VS PS3 2008 VS PS4 2015

YTD
[PS2] 3,989,000
[PS4] 2,333,000
[PS3] 2,250,000

2° September
[PS2] 535,000
[PS4] 340,000
[PS3] 232,000


GC 2004 VS WII 2009 VS WIU 2015

YTD
[WII] 5,158,000
[NGC] 1,112,000
[WIU] 572,000

Third September
[WII] 667,000
[NGC] 165,000
[WIU] 85,000
 

Boke1879

Member
Apr 25, 2013
22,005
0
0
Illinois
I think it's fair. I think winning by 100k would have been the absolute best case but I didn't expect the TKK bundle to move what Destiny did for them last year.

Oct. is when things start to get good. PS4 and One have price parity now. But Halo comes out and will no doubt move hardware. Will the PS4 drop be enough to mitigate that?
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
7,806
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Bahrain
MGSV has no correlation to Uncharted 4 whatsoever. I think part of the problem with MGSV is that it isn't really a game you want to jump into without playing the previous games first. That is why I didn't buy it despite it looking amazing.

Uncharted is a much more accessible IP and has a collection on PS4 now for those that are interested. A collection that is now bundled for free.
That's true, but the average consumer doesn't know that. The US market prefers bald and/or muscular protagonists, so I don't think UC4 has a lot of room to grow in that market. That's why Gears of War & God of War were more popular in the US. Drake's design might appeal to women, but does it appeal to the core 18-35 year old male demographic? I can't think of any game that had character designs similar to UC that sold 1.5+ million on NPD. Uncharted needs that demographic to reach those numbers.

I think I'll temper my expectations for UC4, it can certainly match UC3 WW or even surpass it, but I don't know about the US.
 

Boke1879

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Apr 25, 2013
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Yeah, that's a real issue for quite a few people and a big problem with telling a continuous story for years and years.

Though the gameplay in MGSV is so damn good that I would still give it a near perfect score even if the story (which I also loved) was completely removed.



Don't know about elsewhere but in Japan the numbers for MGS are scarily consistent. It's like it has this super loyal fanbase that buys the series no matter what. MGSV was no exception.
I wouldn't say its a problem but MGS has always been a series where the games average between 5-7 million in sales. I can see MGSV doing that in it's lifetime. Didn't we already get word that it's sold 3 million copies WW a couple of weeks ago?
 

IAmRandom31

Banned
Aug 4, 2013
12,790
0
0
I think it's fair. I think winning by 100k would have been the absolute best case but I didn't expect the TKK bundle to move what Destiny did for them last year.

Oct. is when things start to get good. PS4 and One have price parity now. But Halo comes out and will no doubt move hardware. Will the PS4 drop be enough to mitigate that?
Nah October will be for Microsoft without question. Will it be by a ton? Don't think so but maybe. I could see a 150k difference or so.

The real interesting month is November. That $350 Star Wars PS4 bundle is going to sell a metric ton no doubt. Then the COD bundle and marketing. Will be interesting to see how MS counters and if they go down to 299 with bundles and gift cards and such like last year. No doubt they will have a " buy X1 and get Star Wars free " promotion.

I could see Sony grabbing November and possibly by a huge margin.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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I wouldn't say its a problem but MGS has always been a series where the games average between 5-7 million in sales. I can see MGSV doing that in it's lifetime. Didn't we already get word that it's sold 3 million copies WW a couple of weeks ago?
Nobody's worried about WW numbers, I think it will easily sell better than MGS4 WW, I can see it selling 1-1.5 million on PC & ~1 million on XB1 & last gen combined, so it should sell as high as 8 million even.

It just had a disappointing debut in the US.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Dec 28, 2010
11,969
1
0
That's true, but the average consumer doesn't know that. The US market prefers bald and/or muscular protagonists, so I don't think UC4 has a lot of room to grow in that market. That's why Gears of War & God of War were more popular in the US. Drake's design might appeal to women, but does it appeal to the core 18-35 year old male demographic? I can't think of any game that had character designs similar to UC that sold 1.5+ million on NPD. Uncharted needs that demographic to reach those numbers.

I think I'll temper my expectations for UC4, it can certainly match UC3 WW or even surpass it, but I don't know about the US.
Wait, is there a research or study on that?
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
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Wait, is there a research or study on that?
Nah, just my conclusion. Bald muscular marines are popular in the US based on sales, could it be they were popular in the US for other reasons? Certainly, but publishers chose to chase that design for a reason, & I'm not sure they're wrong. Even Chris in RE5 was re-designed to appeal to that demographic.
 

joecanada

Member
Nov 15, 2013
5,887
1
390
XBOX 2003 VS X360 2007 VS XB1 2015

YTD
[360] 2,223,000
[XB1] 1,958,000
[XBX] 1,401,000

2° September
[360] 528,000
[XB1] 281,000
[XBX] 172,000


PS2 2002 VS PS3 2008 VS PS4 2015

YTD
[PS2] 3,989,000
[PS4] 2,333,000
[PS3] 2,250,000

2° September
[PS2] 535,000
[PS4] 340,000
[PS3] 232,000


GC 2004 VS WII 2009 VS WIU 2015

YTD
[WII] 5,158,000
[NGC] 1,112,000
[WIU] 572,000

Third September
[WII] 667,000
[NGC] 165,000
[WIU] 85,000

360 and PS2 were monsters in NA for their respective companies.... PS4 still doing better than ps3 and ahead of 360 so far, so that's pretty good....

WiiU is poison, just poison (sales wise)
 

Bolivar687

Member
Jun 13, 2014
6,829
6,960
800
USA
XBOX 2003 VS X360 2007 VS XB1 2015

YTD
[360] 2,223,000
[XB1] 1,958,000
[XBX] 1,401,000

2° September
[360] 528,000
[XB1] 281,000
[XBX] 172,000


PS2 2002 VS PS3 2008 VS PS4 2015

YTD
[PS2] 3,989,000
[PS4] 2,333,000
[PS3] 2,250,000

2° September
[PS2] 535,000
[PS4] 340,000
[PS3] 232,000


GC 2004 VS WII 2009 VS WIU 2015

YTD
[WII] 5,158,000
[NGC] 1,112,000
[WIU] 572,000

Third September
[WII] 667,000
[NGC] 165,000
[WIU] 85,000
Awesome alignment of those numbers, thanks!

September 2007 was Halo 3. XB1 performance next month is going to be really indicative of the trajectory of this generation in the U.S. market.

Looks like that "tracking ahead of Xbox 360 and PS3" statistic might go away soon if they don't generate more momentum.
 

Saty

Member
Sep 4, 2009
7,403
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0
And yet EA still won't release its sports games on PC, apart from FIFA. With 8.8K, isn't it close to certain it won't make up for development costs? I'm pretty sure they are going to deflect by saying something like 'our Access subscribers are playing NBA in their hundred thousands' or whatever as if any notable group of people is signing up specifically because they want NBA.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Dec 28, 2010
11,969
1
0
Nah, just my conclusion. Bald muscular marines are popular in the US based on sales, could it be they were popular in the US for other reasons? Certainly, but publishers chose to chase that design for a reason, & I'm not sure they're wrong. Even Chris in RE5 was re-designed to appeal to that demographic.
I don't know. I think that's a long shot without a proper market study. I mean, yeah, that description appeals to the US, but I wouldn't say it basically dictates the market.

I don't think there's enough proof to support that. Unless Halo and COD fall under your description. Anyway, GTA and Madden seem to be pretty popular in the US as well.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
Awesome alignment of those numbers, thanks!

September 2007 was Halo 3. XB1 performance next month is going to be really indicative of the trajectory of this generation in the U.S. market.

Looks like that "tracking ahead of Xbox 360 and PS3" statistic might go away soon if they don't generate more momentum.
It's not going away for a while

PS3 2008:
October: 190k
November: 378k
December: 726k

X360 2008:
October: 371k
November: 836k
December: 1440k

Especially PS4 will crush the numbers PS3 pulled during holiday season of 2008. If Xbox One can repeat last years november and december also it will sell more than X360 in 2008 (I trust that october numbers will be high because of Halo). Combined the gap will still grow by decent margin this year.
 

Verendus

Banned
Nov 16, 2010
8,579
0
0
Games
MGSV figures. Do you understand why?

Because it's shit. That's why.

Also, this industry is doomed. Pray that some eccentric, and mixed race, White/Indian/Black billionaire is able to save us all.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Aug 30, 2009
16,960
123
830
I'm questioning the growth Uncharted 4 might have in the US too, I thought it might show substantial growth, but unless Sony does a massive marketing campaign, I'll be conservative with my estimates.
IMO MGSV really did not have that much hype about it .
I have bought every MGS at launch but this one it .
It being a prequel did not help along with konami not caring that much .
 

Ryng_tolu

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Jul 7, 2015
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It's not going away for a while

PS3 2008:
October: 190k
November: 378k
December: 726k

X360 2008:
October: 371k
November: 836k
December: 1440k

Especially PS4 will crush the numbers PS3 pulled during holiday season of 2008. If Xbox One can repeat last years november and december also it will sell more than X360 in 2008 (I trust that october numbers will be high because of Halo). Combined the gap will still grow by decent margin this year.
You are using 2008 numbers for 360, that's wrong since we talk about the second year. You should use 2007 numbers. So:

Oct - 366,000
Nov - 770,000
Dec - 1,260,000

XB1 will do better than 360 Oct 2007 ( most likely ) and will crush 360 Nov 2007, but i don't think will beat 360 December 2007... that's because i really don't see XB1 up YOY in November and December.

That said, the gap between 360 and XB1 is 265k on 360 favour... so, XB1 need to sell at least 2,661,000 Oct+Nov+Dec 2015 for beat 360 sales in 2007 ( Jan to Dec).

I think it will, but is very difference compared to PS3/PS4, since PS4 will litterally crush PS3 2008 sales, while XB1 can't sell MUCH more than what sold 360 in the second year.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
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You are using 2008 numbers for 360, that's wrong since we talk about the second year. You should use 2007 numbers. So:

Oct - 366,000
Nov - 770,000
Dec - 1,260,000

XB1 will do better than 360 Oct 2007 ( most likely ) and will crush 360 Nov 2007, but i don't think will beat 360 December 2007... that's because i really don't see XB1 up YOY in November and December.

That said, the gap between 360 and XB1 is 265k on 360 favour... so, XB1 need to sell at least 2,661,000 Oct+Nov+Dec 2015 for beat 360 sales in 2007 ( Jan to Dec).

I think it will, but is very difference compared to PS3/PS4, since PS4 will litterally crush PS3 2008 sales, while XB1 can't sell MUCH more than what sold 360 in the second year.
Oh. you are right. Sometimes I still forget that X360 launched year before PS3. Well the point still stands. It will be late gen when last gen starts to get bigger gains compared to this gen (When X360 sales blew up with Kinect).
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
Has anyone looked at Ground Zeros + Phantom Pain and compared that launch to MGS4 launch yet?

One could probably (try) and make an argument GZ is really park of TPP at least in terms of development resources as it was 1 project/budget.
The comparison is gonna be tricky because GZ wasn't a full priced game.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
Has anyone looked at Ground Zeros + Phantom Pain and compared that launch to MGS4 launch yet?

One could probably (try) and make an argument GZ is really park of TPP at least in terms of development resources as it was 1 project/budget.
Ground Zeroes apparently sold 278k on march 2014, so yeah, both combined sold more than MGS 4.

Even so, for me Phantom Pain debut was kinda disappointing. On PS4 alone I tought that would sell more than 800k.
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
7
1,595
XBOX 2003 VS X360 2007 VS XB1 2015

YTD
[360] 2,223,000
[XB1] 1,958,000
[XBX] 1,401,000

2° September
[360] 528,000
[XB1] 281,000
[XBX] 172,000


PS2 2002 VS PS3 2008 VS PS4 2015

YTD
[PS2] 3,989,000
[PS4] 2,333,000
[PS3] 2,250,000

2° September
[PS2] 535,000
[PS4] 340,000
[PS3] 232,000


GC 2004 VS WII 2009 VS WIU 2015

YTD
[WII] 5,158,000
[NGC] 1,112,000
[WIU] 572,000

Third September
[WII] 667,000
[NGC] 165,000
[WIU] 85,000
so basically this generation is doing really well and ps4 is in beast mode.
 

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Jan 2, 2007
39,633
1
0
Nah, just my conclusion. Bald muscular marines are popular in the US based on sales, could it be they were popular in the US for other reasons? Certainly, but publishers chose to chase that design for a reason, & I'm not sure they're wrong. Even Chris in RE5 was re-designed to appeal to that demographic.
What about Assassin's Creed, Devil May Cry 4, Tomb Raider, Fallout, Left 4 Dead, Fable, Zelda, Bioshock Infinite, The Last of Us? Hell, Lost Planet and Dead Rising have had healthy US sales.

There are plenty of popular action games that don't feature bald marines.

Edit: and of course I forgot GTA.
 

Busaiku

Member
Apr 5, 2006
46,931
1
0
I wonder if Project Mirai will be considered ok by Sega.
It does have better sales than Project Diva F, but again, there's absolutely no DLC for Project Mirai, so Project Diva could've made Sega a lot more.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I wonder if Project Mirai will be considered ok by Sega.
It does have better sales than Project Diva F, but again, there's absolutely no DLC for Project Mirai, so Project Diva could've made Sega a lot more.
We'd also need to compare budgets.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
7,806
0
0
Bahrain
What about Assassin's Creed, Devil May Cry 4, Tomb Raider, Fallout, Left 4 Dead, Fable, Zelda, Bioshock Infinite, The Last of Us? Hell, Lost Planet and Dead Rising have had healthy US sales.

There are plenty of popular action games that don't feature bald marines.

Edit: and of course I forgot GTA.
Most of the games you mentioned didn't come close to 1.5 million on NPD. Only GTA and AC3 (maybe 2 also?) did. I'm not arguing against healthy sales for UC4 on NPD, it can still sell 800k-1m, but I don't expect much more than that.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
Most of the games you mentioned didn't come close to 1.5 million on NPD. Only GTA and AC3 (maybe 2 also?) did. I'm not arguing against healthy sales for UC4 on NPD, it can still sell 800k-1m, but I don't expect much more than that.
Sounds correct. Uncharted 3 sold 840k on first month, I don't think Uncharted 4 will have a big improvement.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
Most of the games you mentioned didn't come close to 1.5 million on NPD. Only GTA and AC3 (maybe 2 also?) did. I'm not arguing against healthy sales for UC4 on NPD, it can still sell 800k-1m, but I don't expect much more than that.
Are you talking about first month only? Because otherwise I highly doubt it.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
7,806
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Bahrain
Yeah, I'm talking about debut month, of course it will easily sell more than 1.5 million LTD, but I don't see that in its debut month.
 

StarBlazers1

Member
Oct 23, 2013
533
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Most of the games you mentioned didn't come close to 1.5 million on NPD. Only GTA and AC3 (maybe 2 also?) did. I'm not arguing against healthy sales for UC4 on NPD, it can still sell 800k-1m, but I don't expect much more than that.
The difference is the hunger for an exclusive AAA game is there and the millions of PS4 users will purchase the hell of it. There will be 11-12 million US owners by then and more than 10% will own it in the first month easily.
 

hawk2025

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Jan 20, 2013
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I'm dreading next month's thread a bit. Both scenarios will be full of posturing:

"Halo 5 released and still couldn't win? Wow! Clearly the Xbox and Halo brand are damaged forever. Next month will be interesting."

"A price drop and still couldn't win? Wow! Clearly momentum has been lost forever. Next month will be interesting."


Whatever happens, we all lose :p