The Schedule:
Louisiana: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m
Nebraska: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.
Washington: Caucus begins at 1:00 p.m.
Maine: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 1:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.
*****************************************************************
The Contenders:
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
Gravel
*************************
The States:
Kansas [Republican Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Republicans: 39
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
1,646,599 total registered voters -- 26% Democratic, 45% Republican,
27% Independent/unaffiliated
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
2.7 Million
2.3 Million White
225,000 Hispanic/Latino
150,000 Black
60,000 Two or More
55,000 Asian
Largest City:
355,000 Wichita
Education:
955,000 with Beyond High School Education
*************
Louisiana [Primaries]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 20
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
2,837,985 total registered voters -- 53% Democratic, 25% Republican, 22% Other
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
4.4 Million
2.8 Million White
1.4 Million Black
120,000 Hispanic/Latino
60,000 Asian
50,000 Two or More Races
Largest City:
475,000 New Orleans (67% Black)
Education:
1.2 Million with Beyond High School Education
*************
Nebraska [Democrat Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
1,138,069 total registered voters -- 33% Democratic, 50% Republican, 17% nonpartisan/other
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.7 Million
1.5 Million White
120,000 Hispanic
70,000 Black
25,000 Asian
Largest City:
375,000 Omaha
Education:
600,000 with Beyond High School Education
*************
Washington [Caucuses]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 78
Republicans: 18
Latest Polling
SurveyUSA 2/4/08:
Democrats:
53% Obama
40% Clinton
SurveyUSA 2/8/08
Democrats:
50% Obama
45% Clinton
6% Undecided
SurveyUSA 2/7/08:
Republicans:
32% McCain
31% Romney [Dropped Out]
24% Huckabee
06% Paul
SurveyUSA 2/8/08:
Republicans:
54% McCain
25% Huckabee
11% Paul
10% Undecided
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
6.2 Million
5 Million White
540,000 Hispanic/Latino
400,000 Asian
200,000 Black
200,000 Two or More Races
Largest City:
540,000 Seattle
Education:
2.4 Million with Beyond High School Education
*************
Maine [Democrat Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
993,748 total registered voters -- 31% Democratic, 28% Republican,
38% Independent/unenrolled, 3% Green
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.3 Million
1.25 Million White (97% ?!)
12,000 Hispanic/Latino
12,000 Other
10,000 Asian
9,000 Black
*************
Virgin Islands [Democrat Convention]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 3
Latest Polling
N/A
Total Population 2007 Estimate
108,000
76% Black
13% White
11% Other
Largest City:
19,000 Charlotte Amalie
*************
Notes:
Any errors, just post and I'll fix. Any polling data found, I'll add it. Suggestions? Post em. Virgin Islands? Wat? Also, this can be the official prediction thread I suppose. Try to keep the talk on topic, less clutter [Super Tuesday thread got ugly quick!]
*************
Final Result Update 2/9/08:
Democrats:
Louisiana:
Obama 57% 220,588
Clinton 36% 136,959
100% Reporting
+21 spread
Washington State:
Obama 68% 21,629
Clinton 31% 9,992
96% Reporting
+37 spread
Nebraska:
Obama 68% 25,986
Clinton 32% 12,396
99% Reporting
+36 spread
Virgin Islands:
Obama: 1772 votes (89.9%)
Clinton: 149 votes (7.6%)
??% Reporting
+82.3 spread
Thoughts
First, Nebraska. Not surprised at all there. It is nearly identical to Kansas demographic wise, and the results ended up nearly identical.
Louisiana. Had me worried with reports, but then the exit polling data suggesting the high black vote turn out, knew he had it won, but a 21% blowout.
Washington. Color me surprised, all the reports I heard earlier suggested Clinton had some sort of chance to keep it close. Clearly wrong. 37% spread @ 96% Reporting. Higher than Nebraska at the moment, though Nebraska had a higher turnout. Maybe because there is nothing there :lol
Virgin Islands. Roughly 76% black population in 2000. The population really doesn't change from what I see. In any case, I don't see how anybody could have expected different. Most crushing victory anywhere. Over 80%.
Republicans
Louisiana:
Huckabee 43% 69,665
McCain 42% 67,609
Romney 7% 10,232
Paul 5% 8,595
Kansas:
Huckabee 60% 11,627
McCain 42% 4,587
Paul 11% 2,182
Romney 3% 653
Washington State:
Still processing. McCain ahead by 200 votes @ 87% Reporting.
Thoughts
Wow, Huckasurge confirmed. Really throwing shit in McCain's face. The party is not satisfied. But it's not possible for Huckabee to win even if he won every state here on out. Though I think it's possible to keep McCain short of the needed delegates. We'll see if he drops out, out of respect, or he'll continue to the end to make an honorable finish?
Other Thoughts
Obama completely decimated Clinton tonight. In 4 contests, the lowest margin is a 21 bomb. Also, looking ahead after his speech, Virginia may be littered with the corpses of Clintonistas.
****************
2/10/08 Results Update
Maine
Democrats:
Obama 59% 2,079 (State Delegates)
Clinton 40% 1,396 (State Delegates)
+19 spread
99% Reporting
Thoughts
Amazing. Complete upset of grand proportions. Grand because not only did it upset her, but came with a near 20% spread... when you're projected to win a state, you do not lose by that large a margin. This state went against conventional wisdom up to this point: Large white population, working class, smaller % of higher education. It favored Clinton completely.
Extra Thoughts
Rolling Thunder. The Obama Wave. Tuesday another blowout is expected. Thread will be going up soon tonight.
Extra Extra Thought
Scorched Earth against your own party?
Louisiana: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m
Nebraska: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.
Washington: Caucus begins at 1:00 p.m.
Maine: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 1:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.
*****************************************************************
The Contenders:
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
Gravel
*************************
The States:
Kansas [Republican Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Republicans: 39
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
1,646,599 total registered voters -- 26% Democratic, 45% Republican,
27% Independent/unaffiliated
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
2.7 Million
2.3 Million White
225,000 Hispanic/Latino
150,000 Black
60,000 Two or More
55,000 Asian
Largest City:
355,000 Wichita
Education:
955,000 with Beyond High School Education
*************
Louisiana [Primaries]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 20
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
2,837,985 total registered voters -- 53% Democratic, 25% Republican, 22% Other
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
4.4 Million
2.8 Million White
1.4 Million Black
120,000 Hispanic/Latino
60,000 Asian
50,000 Two or More Races
Largest City:
475,000 New Orleans (67% Black)
Education:
1.2 Million with Beyond High School Education
*************
Nebraska [Democrat Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
1,138,069 total registered voters -- 33% Democratic, 50% Republican, 17% nonpartisan/other
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.7 Million
1.5 Million White
120,000 Hispanic
70,000 Black
25,000 Asian
Largest City:
375,000 Omaha
Education:
600,000 with Beyond High School Education
*************
Washington [Caucuses]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 78
Republicans: 18
Latest Polling
SurveyUSA 2/4/08:
Democrats:
53% Obama
40% Clinton
SurveyUSA 2/8/08
Democrats:
50% Obama
45% Clinton
6% Undecided
SurveyUSA 2/7/08:
Republicans:
32% McCain
31% Romney [Dropped Out]
24% Huckabee
06% Paul
SurveyUSA 2/8/08:
Republicans:
54% McCain
25% Huckabee
11% Paul
10% Undecided
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
6.2 Million
5 Million White
540,000 Hispanic/Latino
400,000 Asian
200,000 Black
200,000 Two or More Races
Largest City:
540,000 Seattle
Education:
2.4 Million with Beyond High School Education
*************
Maine [Democrat Caucus]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24
Latest Polling
N/A
Registered Voters
993,748 total registered voters -- 31% Democratic, 28% Republican,
38% Independent/unenrolled, 3% Green
Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.3 Million
1.25 Million White (97% ?!)
12,000 Hispanic/Latino
12,000 Other
10,000 Asian
9,000 Black
*************
Virgin Islands [Democrat Convention]
Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 3
Latest Polling
N/A
Total Population 2007 Estimate
108,000
76% Black
13% White
11% Other
Largest City:
19,000 Charlotte Amalie
*************
Notes:
Any errors, just post and I'll fix. Any polling data found, I'll add it. Suggestions? Post em. Virgin Islands? Wat? Also, this can be the official prediction thread I suppose. Try to keep the talk on topic, less clutter [Super Tuesday thread got ugly quick!]
*************
Final Result Update 2/9/08:
Democrats:
Louisiana:
Obama 57% 220,588
Clinton 36% 136,959
100% Reporting
+21 spread
Washington State:
Obama 68% 21,629
Clinton 31% 9,992
96% Reporting
+37 spread
Nebraska:
Obama 68% 25,986
Clinton 32% 12,396
99% Reporting
+36 spread
Virgin Islands:
Obama: 1772 votes (89.9%)
Clinton: 149 votes (7.6%)
??% Reporting
+82.3 spread
Thoughts
First, Nebraska. Not surprised at all there. It is nearly identical to Kansas demographic wise, and the results ended up nearly identical.
Louisiana. Had me worried with reports, but then the exit polling data suggesting the high black vote turn out, knew he had it won, but a 21% blowout.
Washington. Color me surprised, all the reports I heard earlier suggested Clinton had some sort of chance to keep it close. Clearly wrong. 37% spread @ 96% Reporting. Higher than Nebraska at the moment, though Nebraska had a higher turnout. Maybe because there is nothing there :lol
Virgin Islands. Roughly 76% black population in 2000. The population really doesn't change from what I see. In any case, I don't see how anybody could have expected different. Most crushing victory anywhere. Over 80%.
Republicans
Louisiana:
Huckabee 43% 69,665
McCain 42% 67,609
Romney 7% 10,232
Paul 5% 8,595
Kansas:
Huckabee 60% 11,627
McCain 42% 4,587
Paul 11% 2,182
Romney 3% 653
Washington State:
Still processing. McCain ahead by 200 votes @ 87% Reporting.
Thoughts
Wow, Huckasurge confirmed. Really throwing shit in McCain's face. The party is not satisfied. But it's not possible for Huckabee to win even if he won every state here on out. Though I think it's possible to keep McCain short of the needed delegates. We'll see if he drops out, out of respect, or he'll continue to the end to make an honorable finish?
Other Thoughts
Obama completely decimated Clinton tonight. In 4 contests, the lowest margin is a 21 bomb. Also, looking ahead after his speech, Virginia may be littered with the corpses of Clintonistas.
****************
2/10/08 Results Update
Maine
Democrats:
Obama 59% 2,079 (State Delegates)
Clinton 40% 1,396 (State Delegates)
+19 spread
99% Reporting
Thoughts
Amazing. Complete upset of grand proportions. Grand because not only did it upset her, but came with a near 20% spread... when you're projected to win a state, you do not lose by that large a margin. This state went against conventional wisdom up to this point: Large white population, working class, smaller % of higher education. It favored Clinton completely.
Extra Thoughts
Rolling Thunder. The Obama Wave. Tuesday another blowout is expected. Thread will be going up soon tonight.
Extra Extra Thought
Scorched Earth against your own party?