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[Jokeropia]

Hey, I get bumped to #13 with the unofficial data. Not bad.

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Bad month for me.

DS is a beast and seriously screwed the pooch for me.

Seriously though 360 would start a serious decline this month, but it's back up to 40k a week.

 

[ElyrionX]

I don't understand all the fascination GAF has with Pachter's numbers. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pachter's ability to forecast these sales figures are as good as anyone on GAF and being a research analyst doesn't make him more or less likely to predict the numbers with greater accuracy.

 

[JKBii]

Does anybody know why the NPD numbers for the GBA and PS2 are valid for everywhere but here? Also, didn't the NPD people say they'd give us LTD data for specific games if we asked for it?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Does anybody know why the NPD numbers for the GBA and PS2 are valid for everywhere but here? Also, didn't the NPD people say they'd give us LTD data for specific games if we asked for it?

For whatever reason, they didn't send those numbers to us. And NPD isn't giving us all the information they originally said they would. But there's not much we can do about it, since they can choose what to hand out.

 

[KINGMOKU]

For whatever reason, they didn't send those numbers to us. And NPD isn't giving us all the information they originally said they would. But there's not much we can do about it, since they can choose what to hand out.

This is the last time I'll comment on it, but GAF was good about it, and plugged the leaks. I say if they keep jacking us around, we post whatever.

I understand all the other things that go along with that, but you know what? GAF didnt gain its incredible populartity, by bieng someones bitch.

That's what it's all about.

 

[JKBii]

This is the last time I'll comment on it, but GAF was good about it, and plugged the leaks. I say if they keep jacking us around, we post whatever.

I understand all the other things that go along with that, but you know what? GAF didnt gain its incredible populartity, by bieng someones bitch.

That's what it's all about.

You're forgetting the part where they take legal action against the site. They were nice about doing this, and if you want people to post leaked numbers they should host them somewhere else and then put a link here the way we link to IGN or whoever else's numbers.

But for the purposes of the prediction results, the other numbers are confirmed to be accurate and we should use them for this thread despite whatever numbers EvilLore got directly from the NPD.

 

[Frillen]

36th place out of 181. Not bad for a first time predicter

 

[Stop It]

139. Stop It - 268,700

Well, thats about it for me, not only did Pachter out-do me for the first time, but I seriously sucked balls, talk about rubbish.

*storms out crying*

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Up 9 spots in the unofficial. Sweet.

I moved up 6 spots from 80 to 74

Awesome

 

[Jammy]

Yes! I beat Pachter!

 

[GhaleonEB]

Method:

I multiplied the May sales by 1.25 (for the extra week in June) and did a few hand adjustments based on trending. I then lowballed the 360 because I always over-estimate that. My original guess was 190k. Figures. :lol

 

[BuzzJive]

Congrats flipping_heck.

That's 2 bad months in a row for me. I'm curious to see what that's done to my YTD rankings.

 

[Slavik81]

Method:

I multiplied the May sales by 1.25 (for the extra week in June) and did a few hand adjustments based on trending. I then lowballed the 360 because I always over-estimate that. My original guess was 190k. Figures. :lol

I used the same method, but used the old NPD numbers from off the top of my head. I really overestimated PS2 (partly because of that) and underestimated GBA (not because of that), but the rest was pretty accurate. Enough that had I posted on GAF and not 1UP, I'd have grabbed 28th with 131.75k.

So, I'd say that's a pretty good way of doing it for these months. July, and September-January will be much more difficult.

 

[apujanata]

139. Stop It - 268,700

Well, thats about it for me, not only did Pachter out-do me for the first time, but I seriously sucked balls, talk about rubbish.

*storms out crying*

Well, you can try to get Lancestern to participate in the prediction. I think you might be able to do better than him about 80% of time.

47. apujanata - 229,832

Since I am still in the Top 50, I don't think I need to commit seppuku.

 

[Bildi]

Method:

I multiplied the May sales by 1.25 (for the extra week in June) and did a few hand adjustments based on trending.

I used a similar method but I divided by 4 and then multiplied by 5. I like my method better because I only have to push four buttons on my special wrist-watch calculator, whereas you have to push five.

It seems your method was more accurate though.

 

[davepoobond]

i didn't do too hot this month :lol

i think the main killers were ds and wii...

 

[tinderbox]

#40 Not too bad, wish I'd seen the results before the PSP numbers were fixed. I was seriously screwed by the 2 handhelds. Only missed by a combined 21k for the 3 next gen systems.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I used a similar method but I divided by 4 and then multiplied by 5. I like my method better because I only have to push four buttons on my special wrist-watch calculator, whereas you have to push five.

It seems your method was more accurate though.

I just got lucky. I did the same kind of trending last month and it landed me in 70th place or so. I think most people have a feel for where things are going, which is why the range is fairly narrow. I love it when things get shaken up - like the PS3 price cut. There will be a VERY wide range of predictions for it next month. Should be fun.

 

[Terrell]

Hmmmm... I did not too bad for a first try. But hot damn, Pachter did pretty good for himself, didn't he?

 

[Bildi]

I just got lucky. I did the same kind of trending last month and it landed me in 70th place or so. I think most people have a feel for where things are going, which is why the range is fairly narrow. I love it when things get shaken up - like the PS3 price cut. There will be a VERY wide range of predictions for it next month. Should be fun.

The last time there was a five week month the sales didn't spike at all, it looked like a four week month. I can't remember which month it was though. This time around I thought I'd take a chance that the 125% method would work and luckily it did.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The last time there was a five week month the sales didn't spike at all, it looked like a four week month. I can't remember which month it was though. This time around I thought I'd take a chance that the 125% method would work and luckily it did.

Well, not all five week months are born equal. March is usually flat or down over February, but such is not the case with June.

Something particular I forgot to mention earlier was that it seems like portables get a larger bump than consoles (summer vacation effect?), thus I nudged up DS a bit.

 

[Bildi]

Well, not all five week months are born equal. March is usually flat or down over February, but such is not the case with June.

Something particular I forgot to mention earlier was that it seems like portables get a larger bump than consoles (summer vacation effect?), thus I nudged up DS a bit.

March was it? I think a lot of people were caught out because the Wii really took a big dive with the shortages.

Seems like May and June really flatline (except for the five week month). The Wii was the one console that seemed to slow in June compared to May on a week-to-week basis.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

March was it?

The quarter-ending months are always five weeks: March, June, September, December. January is rarely, when they need to make up for the fact that each year isn't 364 days like the 4-4-5 pattern uses yearly.

 

[Bildi]

The quarter-ending months are always five weeks: March, June, September, December. January is rarely, when they need to make up for the fact that each year isn't 364 days like the 4-4-5 pattern uses yearly.

Oh! Learn something every day...

 

[donny2112]

For those who don't think it's meaningful to get the hardware rankings correct, consider these facts.

1. 20 users have gotten the rankings in the correct order this year through the first six months.
2. No one has done it twice. That means that 20 out of 875 predictions this year have gotten the ordering correct on the hardware, regardless of the values predicted.
3. No one got it in January, February, or June.

That's 2 bad months in a row for me. I'm curious to see what that's done to my YTD rankings.

The May rankings can be found here. The overall top 5 has the same members as last month, but only sonycowboy stayed in the same position (#2). BuzzJive and I switched places, and GhaleonEB and argon switched places.

Pachter's #25 over the last three months.

bad data

* - Actually tied for #29 for June 2007.

Thanks a ton to Cheesemeister for his parser making the prediction gathering a much easier task than the first four months of the year.

The NeoGAF NPD Monthly Point Totals website is also updated.

 

[Jokeropia]

Exactly what does it mean to get the hardware ranking correct? Isn't it just being right on the DS > Wii > PSP > PS2 > 360 > GBA > PS3 order? Because I believe lots of people did it this month, myself included.

 

[Kosma]

39. oo Kosma oo - 145,100

Next time Im shooting for the top 10!

 

[Diablos54]

Bleh, undershot the PS3 and PSP (I think). Better luck next month. :lol

 

[BuzzJive]

Data

Once again - you rock. I've lost touch with the common gamer and slipped 4 places in the annual breakdown. Then again, the guy doing the scoring is in first place ;-). I think the remainder of the year is just going to get harder to predict...

 

[GhaleonEB]

    Jun-07                      Last 3 months              2007
1.  flipping_heck     147.1     BuzzJive         390.4     donny2112           740.88
2.  JoshuaJSlone      145.07    donny2112        388.03    sonycowboy          739.24
3.  donny2112         140.46    Clever Pun       383.91    GhaleonEB           737.97
4.  Bildi             139.58    apujanata        380.6     argon               736.35
5.  GhaleonEB         136.65    argon            379.62    BuzzJive            735.15

Wow. I had no idea. It's pretty awesome that you track these, BTW. Makes the whole process a lot of fun, and beyond that educational.

 

[donny2112]

Exactly what does it mean to get the hardware ranking correct? Isn't it just being right on the DS > Wii > PSP > PS2 > 360 > GBA > PS3 order? Because I believe lots of people did it this month, myself included.

PhoenixWrightHeadBanging.gif

Bah! You are correct. I am an idiot. etc.

I had the queries in place, but forgot to use them to update the base table. I am fixing it now.

Edit:
I'm glad you were paying attention.

Edit:
23 people got the ranking order correct. That's a smidgen different than zero. :lol

 

[donny2112]

It's now fixed. Thanks, Jokeropia!

    Jun-07                      Last 3 months              2007
1.  JoshuaJSlone      160.07    BuzzJive         405.4     GhaleonEB           752.97
2.  Clever Pun        149.25    Clever Pun       398.91    BuzzJive            750.15
3.  GhaleonEB         151.65    donny2112        388.03    JoshuaJSlone        747.9
4.  flipping_heck     147.1     GhaleonEB        387.11    donny2112           740.88
5.  Jokeropia         142.24    JoshuaJSlone     386.15    sonycowboy          739.24
6.  donny2112         140.46    Parl             384.96    Clever Pun          739.15
7.  King Din A Lin'   140.09    apujanata        380.6     argon               736.35
8.  Bildi             139.58    argon            379.62    rage1973            702.58
9.  jrricky           136.78    Bildi            378.94    duderon             699.62
10. Firesprite121984  136.62    Jokeropia        378.41    starship            696.57
11. DefectiveReject   135.86    starship         374.34    Orgen               693.88
12. Odysseus          135.53    DayShallCome     373.9     Heidir              690.28
13. Freki             134.57    Branduil         373.52    Kurosaki Ichigo     689.11
14. sazzy             134.32    sonycowboy       372.86    hadareud            656.42
15. BuzzJive          134.02    Heidir           368.74    beermonkey@tehbias  632.06
16. Parl              132.87    Odysseus         367.79    Jokeropia           622.38
17. jamesinclair      132.39    USD              366.73    PhoenixDark         601.33
18. Patton            130.31    Tf53             365.92    DayShallCome        599.2
19. dyls              130.25    Orgen            364.23    Branduil            583.56
20. Brakara           128.96    Haunted One      364.02    TheKurgan           569.25
21. Drensch           128.79    Mariah Carey     363.29    Frankfurter         568.89
22. Pachter           128.72    RiskyChris       363.19    bycha               557.56
23. argon             127.99    Gekkonidae       363.15    Lock                555.09
24. Branduil          127.29    duderon          362.06    fanduck             553.55
25. d[-_-]b           126.19    rage1973         361.48    AniHawk             547.7
26. USD               126.02    Patton           359.48    djtiesto            542.82
27. DeaconKnowledge   125.92    bmf              358.81    Diablos54           526.47
28. ShutEye           125.91    Pachter          356.72    Earthstrike         515.21
29. titiklabingapat   125.82    Freki            356.45    apujanata           503.12
30. rage1973          125.66    DSWii60          355.41    Bildi               499.58

Pachter is now #28 for the last three months.

GhaleonEB shoots into the lead!

 

[AniHawk]

Note to self: Kill wealthy duchess GhaleonEB

 

[TwinsDad]

I sucked again. But what do I expect when I pull my numbers out of a hat.


"Hey Rocky, watch me..."

 

[GhaleonEB]

It's now fixed. Thanks, Jokeropia!

    Jun-07                      Last 3 months              2007
1.  JoshuaJSlone      160.07    BuzzJive         405.4     GhaleonEB           752.97
2.  GhaleonEB         151.65    donny2112        388.03    BuzzJive            750.15
3.  flipping_heck     147.1     GhaleonEB        387.11    JoshuaJSlone        747.9

GhaleonEB shoots into the lead!

0_o

Note to self: Kill wealthy duchess GhaleonEB

Gah!

*runs*

 

[Jokeropia]

Hey, no problem. I'm liking these new lists better.

Of course, not participating in the January predictions hurts my 2007 total.

 

[sonycowboy]

It's now fixed. Thanks, Jokeropia!

Donny,

What's the weighting formula again? I think we might want to tweak that to my benefit Seriously though, there seems to be too many points assigned to the correct order as we discussed last month that overweight that factor vs how close you are to the actual sales.

June killed me because of the DS & the Wii. The Wii, you just don't know and the DS I thought would trend a little down as we got further away from Pokemon. I also looked at historical trends for the past 6 years for how June was compared to May, although I had to knock out a few of those months because of E3 price drop changes.

I think it proves my thesis that outside of the holidays, HW sales are for the most part linear, relying on current factors such as releases, price drops, and recent month trending vs historical factors.

 

[VanMardigan]

Yeah, I sucked it up this month. I pretty much underrated everything. Not only that, but DS's godly numbers crushed me. I really had no idea Nintendo stuff would sell at that clip in June.

 

[donny2112]

CleverPun's hardware ranking points got missed in my mad rush to fix the totals. I've now gone back, taken my time, and his points are rightly there now. Everyone else was correct.

What's the weighting formula again?

1. Correct hardware rankings - 15 pts.

2. 20 points * (percentage of correct units for hardware system); anything over 100% difference = 0 points. Maximum points: 140

3. Bonus points for finishing in the top 10 by units for the month:
#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Seriously though, there seems to be too many points assigned to the correct order as we discussed last month that overweight that factor vs how close you are to the actual sales.

I'm a little reticent to change the rules, since we're already halfway through the year and have a couple of months already using this point system. If most feel that 15 points is too high, however, it's a simple enough change on my part. If we change the bonus to 10 points, this would be the new 2007 top ten.

1. BuzzJive 745.15
2. GhaleonEB 742.97
3. JoshuaJSlone 742.90
4. donny2112 740.88
5. sonycowboy 739.24
6. argon 736.35
7. Clever Pun 734.15
8. rage1973 702.58
9. duderon 699.62
10. Orgen 693.88

What about increasing the individual system worth from 20 points to 25 points?

I think it proves my thesis that outside of the holidays, HW sales are for the most part linear, relying on current factors such as releases, price drops, and recent month trending vs historical factors.

IIRC, the winner of the June 2005 NPD Prediction contest (Scott?) assumed absolute flat sales from May to June on a weekly basis. :lol

 

[BuzzJive]

It's now fixed.

So I shot back up to second for the year? Nice. I knew there was something fishy about the score keeper being on top.


And yeah sonycowboy - I've been expecting the same thing from the DS. The pokemon spike has turned out to be more of a pokemon plateau. I'm not convinced anymore that it will ever go back down...


EDIT: I vote we change it to 10 pts instead of 15

 

[donny2112]

Then again, the guy doing the scoring is in first place ;-).

I knew there was something fishy about the score keeper being on top.

Nothing intentional.

And yeah sonycowboy - I've been expecting the same thing from the DS. The pokemon spike has turned out to be more of a pokemon plateau. I'm not convinced anymore that it will ever go back down...

Since the DS Lite, the DS has finally been having months >= the GBA back in the day. AKA: It stopped sucking. If you recall, the GBA's monthly sales seemed to have absolutely nothing to do with what was released that month.

EDIT: I vote we change it to 10 pts instead of 15

That's 1 vote for the change.

Spoiler

 

[donny2112]

IIRC, the winner of the June 2005 NPD Prediction contest (Scott?) assumed absolute flat sales from May to June on a weekly basis. :lol

July 2005. Scotch.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58477

Also, looking up old PSP vs. DS threads is fun. Again.

 

[Haunted]

.    Jun-07                      Last 3 months              2007
1.  JoshuaJSlone      160.07    BuzzJive         405.4     GhaleonEB           752.97
2.  Clever Pun        149.25    Clever Pun       398.91    BuzzJive            750.15
3.  GhaleonEB         151.65    donny2112        388.03    JoshuaJSlone        747.9
4.  flipping_heck     147.1     GhaleonEB        387.11    donny2112           740.88
5.  Jokeropia         142.24    JoshuaJSlone     386.15    sonycowboy          739.24
6.  donny2112         140.46    Parl             384.96    Clever Pun          739.15
7.  King Din A Lin'   140.09    apujanata        380.6     argon               736.35
8.  Bildi             139.58    argon            379.62    rage1973            702.58
9.  jrricky           136.78    Bildi            378.94    duderon             699.62
10. Firesprite121984  136.62    Jokeropia        378.41    starship            696.57
11. DefectiveReject   135.86    starship         374.34    Orgen               693.88
12. Odysseus          135.53    DayShallCome     373.9     Heidir              690.28
13. Freki             134.57    Branduil         373.52    Kurosaki Ichigo     689.11
14. sazzy             134.32    sonycowboy       372.86    hadareud            656.42
15. BuzzJive          134.02    Heidir           368.74    beermonkey@tehbias  632.06
16. Parl              132.87    Odysseus         367.79    Jokeropia           622.38
17. jamesinclair      132.39    USD              366.73    PhoenixDark         601.33
18. Patton            130.31    Tf53             365.92    DayShallCome        599.2
19. dyls              130.25    Orgen            364.23    Branduil            583.56
20. Brakara           128.96    Haunted One      364.02    TheKurgan           569.25
21. Drensch           128.79    Mariah Carey     363.29    Frankfurter         568.89
22. Pachter           128.72    RiskyChris       363.19    bycha               557.56
23. argon             127.99    Gekkonidae       363.15    Lock                555.09
24. Branduil          127.29    duderon          362.06    fanduck             553.55
25. d[-_-]b           126.19    rage1973         361.48    AniHawk             547.7
26. USD               126.02    Patton           359.48    djtiesto            542.82
27. DeaconKnowledge   125.92    bmf              358.81    Diablos54           526.47
28. ShutEye           125.91    Pachter          356.72    Earthstrike         515.21
29. titiklabingapat   125.82    Freki            356.45    apujanata           503.12
30. rage1973          125.66    DSWii60          355.41    Bildi               499.58

^_^ I like the middle column the most.