Let's say at the GDC Microsoft comes on stage reveales the disc-less Xbox One, and Phil comes in with a kings crown on his head shouts "$99.99" and drops the mic. It would be an epic conference because the message will be clear: The gen is over.
If MS can pull it off, since you can get an original Xbox One or S for <$200 and $250 respectively, you could have a Kinect level success. World Wide digital is growing, and there are already millions of people all over jumping in on it. Xbox One already has several of the biggest games on XBL, but with Gamepass it gives a new incentive for people to go all digital, and add the fact that Microsoft is the only one of the big 3 with BC and actual long-term digital support consistency, it would be a steal.
Adding to the damage, you have the upcoming streaming platform allowing even more options on you're all digital gaming device. This could be a huge deal.
Sony could potentially counter with a disc-less PS4, but the likely hood of it being $99 is slim, but even so, Microsoft currently objectively has the better digital infrastructure (technology and server wise) and has a better record of long-term support and compatibility that may cause some to Switch or new buyers to Jump in
Using a $250 base Xbox One S as an example:
-Remove the 4K blu-ray drive from the: shave $100
-Remove unnecessary optional ports that aren't popularly used: shave $25
-Shrink the box size making manufacturing process cheaper: Shave $25
Total: $99
That's an easy $99 all digital box that could take off selling Kinect-like numbers, closing the gap. Going into Best Buy and Gamespot and not only seeing a $99 digital Xbox One, but also gamepass making games cheaper and streaming coming in the future gives a good reason
Even parents will pick it up for their kids, as they will still be playing MP with strangers and/or friends, but this time they don't have to spend $190 on 6 games, don't have a shelf cluttered with plastic, and a console that costs only $99!