BaronLundi
Member
And out of these, how many would immediately and acutely suffer consequences from a LePen victory (or even a defeat with a high score) I wonder ?
What a sad bunch of irresponsible citizens.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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And out of these, how many would immediately and acutely suffer consequences from a LePen victory (or even a defeat with a high score) I wonder ?
What a sad bunch of irresponsible citizens.
Well, well. No overlap whatsoever, nope. None.
I hope they will at least not go to FN in the legislative elections.
I'm so ashamed of the left right now. So much for solidarity with LGBT people, non-whites, Muslims and Jews, I guess we don't matter. They've got to make their stupid point about idealogical purity I guess. Between this and "Lexiters" and the Labour party in Britain taking a dump all over freedom of movement the last year has been a rude awakening. I thought I was firmly left wing but it's become increasingly clear that these people care more about impotently raging against capitalism than they do about protecting minorities. Macron will win regardless but this betrayal won't be forgotten.
You don't. It is pretty clear that in this regard horseshoe theory applies.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Far-Left would allow the world to burn just to ''win an argument''
that's pretty much how I feel aswell...
So we're back at firing shots at Mélenchon and moralizing his voters. That worked GREAT during the first week so why shouldn't we continue ?
Anyway you can throw as much arguments towards people producing moral judgements to make them understand your choice, they'll always end up insulting you without understanding for a second what you say (see below with the guy that has been repeating himself for one week with the same one-sentence post)
I wonder where PS-LR-DLF an other parties are going to release the results of their consultations ? Any word on these ?
About the Elabe poll showing a rise of Mélenchon's voters choosing Le Pen, the latest OpinionWay showed exactly the opposite (22%>15% between the 24 and the 28th). So considering how bad the sample is and how undecided people still are, I would wait for more data in the next polls before naming and shaming everyone.
But you already posted the same a week ago...
sorry, twice
sorry, three times
faut savoir changer de disque ;-)
Anyway you can throw as much arguments towards people producing moral judgements to make them understand your choice, they'll always end up insulting you without understanding for a second what you say (see below with the guy that has been repeating himself for one week with the same one-sentence post)
I wonder where PS-LR-DLF an other parties are going to release the results of their consultations ? Any word on these ?
About the Elabe poll showing a rise of Mélenchon's voters choosing Le Pen, the latest OpinionWay showed exactly the opposite (22%>15% between the 24 and the 28th). So considering how bad the sample is and how undecided people still are, I would wait for more data in the next polls before naming and shaming everyone.
But you already posted the same a week ago...
sorry, twice
sorry, three times
faut savoir changer de disque ;-)
MistakenMobius
Member
Well I mean all communist revolution arrived during unrest period. It's in their interest and their romantic vision to make it happen
Not only that, but as communists, Macron literally is their absolute enemy, as for what he represents and all he stands for. Lepen is probably the lesser evil in their eyes, since she wants the "people" to govern, they probably figure it can't get that bad/would be able to become the heroes of the left if it does get bad.
BaronLundi
Member
There
is
no
need
for
a
consultation
to
oppose
facism.
I don't even want to try to convince you, I've stopped trying to convince insoumis who backed themselves into a corner by making unjustifiable equations between liberalism and facism, bankers and neo-nazis. And I understand you not wanting to receive moral lessons but I'm sorry, this *is* a major moral (and political) failure for the left.
Your vote is your right. If you are a progressist / leftist / care about the refugees, the immigrants, the minorities, the poor and the weak you WILL know what's the right thing to do on your way to and within the voting booth.
whyamihere
Banned
new polls
What you don't understand in the stances from people who will abstain or go vote blanc is that they already believe that the situations for refugees, immigrants, minorities or the general status of our democracy has been weakened these last five years included. They already see fascist ideas in the way the police kills, blinds protesters' eyes, beats them when they don't do that ; how they have zero humanity in how they deal with migrants ; how Valls treated the roms ; how Hollande proposed the nationality ban knowing that this was a far-right proposal ; how Hollande allowed people to be fichées S for political reasons (COP21, indie journalists...) ; how the état d'urgence still allows the worst to happen etc etc etc. They don't say that Le Pen=Macron but they just don't want to choose - knowing anyway that she has no chance of winning because she's still isolated and 20 points behind.
I don't say that you can't disagree with them, but at least try to understand their reasoning and stop moralizing them. It's really the worst form or arguing
By the way a great opinion column on the topic if you have time and a roundtable (1h) that Mediapart did, very interesting too
Palette Swap
Member
On the left, let's remember:
- PS has been unambiguous.
- PCF too. Some of them are unambiguous about their shock and disbelief at this variation on "ni ni". If anything, they're working as much as they can to convince people to vote.
On the flipside, I think Coquerel (and ultimately Mélenchon) is cynical and/or myopic when he says "it's up to Macron to listen to us and change his platform". This sounds a lot like passive-aggressive bargaining (I thought they didn't own these votes?) and implies that ultimately, the labor part of Macron's platform is a red line that can be compared to Le Pen's multitude of red lines.
But yeah, I agree that being mad at people won't achieve anything.
Meanwhile, MLP was on TF1 laughing about her plagiarism, saying she helped journalists by giving them something to write about.
Le Canard reports that if they don't get a parliamentary majority to govern, FN plan to :
- make a referendum on proportional representation (FN's version of proportionality gives a 30% bonus to the winning party)
- dissolve the parliament to have elections under the new system
That's a bit depressing, bordering on nightmarish.
- PS has been unambiguous.
- PCF too. Some of them are unambiguous about their shock and disbelief at this variation on "ni ni". If anything, they're working as much as they can to convince people to vote.
On the flipside, I think Coquerel (and ultimately Mélenchon) is cynical and/or myopic when he says "it's up to Macron to listen to us and change his platform". This sounds a lot like passive-aggressive bargaining (I thought they didn't own these votes?) and implies that ultimately, the labor part of Macron's platform is a red line that can be compared to Le Pen's multitude of red lines.
But yeah, I agree that being mad at people won't achieve anything.
Meanwhile, MLP was on TF1 laughing about her plagiarism, saying she helped journalists by giving them something to write about.
Le Canard reports that if they don't get a parliamentary majority to govern, FN plan to :
- make a referendum on proportional representation (FN's version of proportionality gives a 30% bonus to the winning party)
- dissolve the parliament to have elections under the new system
That's a bit depressing, bordering on nightmarish.
MistakenMobius
Member
Classic hitlero Trotskyism collaboration talk
I've never read that thesis anywhere in leftist circles, where have you heard/read/seen that argument ?
The arguing is getting better and better here
The complete absence of nuance from a ridiculously rigid world view means that they'd contribute to ushering in something that is *objectively* worse.
Frankly given the above, I don't think that they're above a bit of moralizing, because their choices are in fact incongruous with what they purport to stand for.
MistakenMobius
Member
BaronLundi
Member
No, what they don't understand is that they won't have to pack their bags if the fascist witch comes into power.
What they turn a blind eye to is the actual violence that will come upon the minorities if she loses but by a big margin, regardless of what Valls or Hollande did or did not do.
Their profound mistake is that FN was created or dwelled because of liberalism or Europe or financial interests and therefore there is no need to fight the former anymore than the latter. This is wrong. Historically, politically and morally.
This is neither a drill nor a revolutionary's wet dream. This is a potential catastrophe in the making.
It doesn't matter. There is a position, and it will be filled by one or the other. There is no other alternative. Not voting means that they believe both their policies regarding everything you listed are exactly equally the same. If there is a chance that one may be slightly less worse than the other, non-voters need to ask themselves whether they can take the chance at having the worse candidate in their opinion be elected. It's about responsibility.
So about Melenchon's electors going for Le Pen here are the polls in chronological order
Harris : 12 - 13
Ipsos : 9 - 19
Ifop : 19 - 16 - 13
Elabe : 16 - 23
Opinion Way : 15
Odoxa : 19
BVA : 18
Kantar Sofres : 17
The failure to understand that these voters are the ones who would've voted for FN in the first place is staggering to say the least.
Melenchon didn't go from 11 to 19% in 5 years with pure magic, the additional voters he convinced were mostly coming from both the PS and FN, these 15-20% is 3-4% of total electors, this is basically the amount of voters that intended to vote Le Pen originally (remember these polls with Le Pen at 25-30%, who do you think they voted for if not Le Pen in the end?) and if anything his stance maye have convinced a good part of them to not vote Le Pen at the 2nd turn.
He's also clearly trying to keep these people on board with the Front de Gauche for the incoming legislatives, while it may hurt Macron in the short term, in mid/long term it increases its potential electors and also put these people away from the FN which might also be a top priority for him.
But yeah he could have joined the Front Republicain, bringing Macron from 60 to a whooping 63-64%, lose a few deputees in the following election, lose the FN electors he just won after the presidential campain and let them go back to Le Pen once and for all.
The supposed "short term gains for democracy" just aren't worth it.
I'm only speaking from a political point of view there though and trying to guess what is Melenchon's and the FI thought process, I don't judge it nor do I necessary agree with it.
gutter_trash
Banned
So we're back at firing shots at Mélenchon and moralizing his voters. That worked GREAT during the first week so why shouldn't we continue ?
Anyway you can throw as much arguments towards people producing moral judgements to make them understand your choice, they'll always end up insulting you without understanding for a second what you say (see below with the guy that has been repeating himself for one week with the same one-sentence post)
I wonder where PS-LR-DLF an other parties are going to release the results of their consultations ? Any word on these ?
About the Elabe poll showing a rise of Mélenchon's voters choosing Le Pen, the latest OpinionWay showed exactly the opposite (22%>15% between the 24 and the 28th). So considering how bad the sample is and how undecided people still are, I would wait for more data in the next polls before naming and shaming everyone.
But you already posted the same a week ago...
sorry, twice
sorry, three times
faut savoir changer de disque ;-)
vous n'avez pas reçu le mémo?
Wow with your developped reasoning, that doesn't at all tries to insult me, now I'm convinced and I'm no more a collabo-trotkist that would support Hitler.
/ignorelist
What you turn a blind eye to is the actual violence that is already coming upon the minorities, protesters, migrants etc. and that will continue because Macron doesn't care and don't want to change how the State produces that violence deep within society.
Also nobody ever said there is no need to fight the FN anymore. You musn't have seen what was on the signs and banderols at yesterday's protests : they were mainly against Le Pen.
So you're saying why they choose not to vote is irrelevant but your personnal opinion on why they don't vote and what it means is relevant ? Please.
Anyway, everyone have a good evening, feel free to continue without me.
Also I think it's more than time to put Mélenchon in a retirement home. His platform was plagued with blunders like his stance on the EU and international politics and I'm quite sure his decisions (or lack thereof) since the first round are killing the left.
I mean yeah, sure, some people would have stayed home on round 2 no matter what, but he had an opportunity to appear as a leader after the defeat and he missed it. He's a good speaker but that's obviously not enough to be a make a politician.
I mean yeah, sure, some people would have stayed home on round 2 no matter what, but he had an opportunity to appear as a leader after the defeat and he missed it. He's a good speaker but that's obviously not enough to be a make a politician.
It's not what I'm saying. But reading comprehension isn't your strong point we can agree on that.
I love stability.Macron's lead has not moved to much in the last few months or so in the second round.
who is going to win?!
Ah yes, surely that must be it.
It couldn't be the Hollande presidency nor the fact that half of the PS showed their true colours by stabbing their own candidate in the back Brutus/Caesar-style.
No, it's JLM's fault. He's the one killing the left.
Hollande has been painted as a social-traître not even a year after he took office. He disappointed 3/4 of his voters for being too centrist, not a real leftist etc.
Please tell me how that wasn't a perfect opportunity for the left of the PS. Mélenchon literally had to stop campaigning for a week after he surged in the polls because people cared to take a look at his program.
Everytime I bring this I get an answer about Hollande or the media or liberalism that brings people to the FN. The left had an opportunity, they made their best score in decades but still missed the second round, which makes me ask whether or not someone on the left hopes to become president or if the point is just to rant and sabotage the campaign of others.
To this point I've heard les républicains admit they had a terrible candidate. The socialists are well aware their party might be out for a while. But I don't remember having read an insoumis make the beginning of a reasoning on why they missed the second round by a couple points. It's like it's everyone's fault but not theirs, and even less Mélenchon's.
Not that I care or anything. I'd like to have an actual leftist in position to win 5 years from now instead of the FN or another Fillon, but if the insoumis think they made a good campaign and want to do exaclty that next time then it's none of my business.
GalacticSushiman
Member
(I am French but live in Canada for 8 years...)
I personally voted Macron, and obviously will vote for him again next Saturday (we vote on the Saturday when expat).
I personally agree with BaronLundi (and the others), but I am not judging anyone. If people feel like 'ultra liberal (LOL, Macron is a social democrat, ultra-liberalism does not really exist since the 90s outside of a couple of offices in the IMF/FMI
) is as horrible as fascists' then fine, it's your opinion, and voting the way you want is your right.
I also believe in responsibilities. I really don't understand (nor appreciate) all those British citizens saying that they would vote against brexit now, cause they were fooled by false promises (isn't it what an election always is btw?).
It's like pretty much anything else, do your research, read, listen, and make an educated opinion (AND STICK TO IT POST ELECTION FFS).
Again, I won't tell anyone who to vote for, or not, but I would like to ask everyone to do it 'en conscience' and not to cry after... Which I am pretty sure a lot of 'abstentionistes' will do a couple of days after the fact... Still.
I personally voted Macron, and obviously will vote for him again next Saturday (we vote on the Saturday when expat).
I personally agree with BaronLundi (and the others), but I am not judging anyone. If people feel like 'ultra liberal (LOL, Macron is a social democrat, ultra-liberalism does not really exist since the 90s outside of a couple of offices in the IMF/FMI
) is as horrible as fascists' then fine, it's your opinion, and voting the way you want is your right.I also believe in responsibilities. I really don't understand (nor appreciate) all those British citizens saying that they would vote against brexit now, cause they were fooled by false promises (isn't it what an election always is btw?).
It's like pretty much anything else, do your research, read, listen, and make an educated opinion (AND STICK TO IT POST ELECTION FFS
).Again, I won't tell anyone who to vote for, or not, but I would like to ask everyone to do it 'en conscience' and not to cry after... Which I am pretty sure a lot of 'abstentionistes' will do a couple of days after the fact... Still.
So not only are Mélenchon's voters babies who can't take a political loss, now they're so fragile that we shouldn't tell them the truth because they might vote for Le Pen if we hurt their feelings?
We're not arguing with Mélenchon's voters, those that are still refusing to vote against fucking Le Pen (or are even planing to vote for her!) 5 days before the election are probably a lost cause anyway. But it happens that a lot of us find their attitude and that of Mélenchon utterly shameful, why shouldn't we be able to say it loud and clear?
So about Melenchon's electors going for Le Pen here are the polls in chronological order
Harris : 12 - 13
Ipsos : 9 - 19
Ifop : 19 - 16 - 13
Elabe : 16 - 23
Opinion Way : 15
Odoxa : 19
BVA : 18
Kantar Sofres : 17
The failure to understand that these voters are the ones who would've voted for FN in the first place is staggering to say the least.
Melenchon didn't go from 11 to 19% in 5 years with pure magic, the additional voters he convinced were mostly coming from both the PS and FN, these 15-20% is 3-4% of total electors, this is basically the amount of voters that intended to vote Le Pen originally (remember these polls with Le Pen at 25-30%, who do you think they voted for if not Le Pen in the end?) and if anything his stance maye have convinced a good part of them to not vote Le Pen at the 2nd turn.
He's also clearly trying to keep these people on board with the Front de Gauche for the incoming legislatives, while it may hurt Macron in the short term, in mid/long term it increases its potential electors and also put these people away from the FN which might also be a top priority for him.
But yeah he could have joined the Front Republicain, bringing Macron from 60 to a whooping 63-64%, lose a few deputees in the following election, lose the FN electors he just won after the presidential campain and let them go back to Le Pen once and for all.
The supposed "short term gains for democracy" just aren't worth it.
I'm only speaking from a political point of view there though and trying to guess what is Melenchon's and the FI thought process, I don't judge it nor do I necessary agree with it.
Right, so you agree with us that he's a coward playing political games while MARINE LE FUCKING PEN is in the second round of the presidential election? When even FILLON (!!!) refused to betray his values?
Glad we cleared that one out.
MonsieurPaul
Neo Member
Hamon with "les frondeurs" spent 5 years being a pain in the ass for hollande. They even put a "motion de censure" against a government from their own party. In any normal party, he would have been expelled since long ago.
about that, a friend of mine told me a few days ago that France was already ultraliberal, even more than the US(I am French but live in Canada for 8 years...)
I personally voted Macron, and obviously will vote for him again next Saturday (we vote on the Saturday when expat).
I personally agree with BaronLundi (and the others), but I am not judging anyone. If people feel like 'ultra liberal (LOL, Macron is a social democrat, ultra-liberalism does not really exist since the 90s outside of a couple of offices in the IMF/FMI
whan can you answer to that ?
Just wanted to say, love boards of canada. Also, I've had your avatar as a sticker on one of my pieces of luggage for years. Which is weird. But true.
Orniletter
Banned
I'm getting terrible Clinton/Sanders 2016 flashbacks right about now. Melenchon or Busters.
The parallels (lack of any form of pragmatism, purity tests, outright refusal to fight the objectively worse candidate) are alarming.
That bit about the FN-proposed referendum + """representative""" Parliament are outright dictatorship-esque.
The parallels (lack of any form of pragmatism, purity tests, outright refusal to fight the objectively worse candidate) are alarming.
That bit about the FN-proposed referendum + """representative""" Parliament are outright dictatorship-esque.
What is that reason and how is FN going to solve it?
here
If there's a MLP dynamic, it's too weak to be meaningful. And most voters know who they'll vote for at this point.
whyamihere
Banned
here
If there's a MLP dynamic, it's too weak to be meaningful. And most voters know who they'll vote for at this point.
tightening
she gained a little between the 1st round and now but 2nd round polls typically move a bit once the public knows the names of the finalists. Now she's stable at around 40%, and we vote on sunday. She needs to kill Macron at the debate, plus a lot of luck.
Orniletter
Banned
here
If there's a MLP dynamic, it's too weak to be meaningful. And most voters know who they'll vote for at this point.
That's reassuring, especially because french pollsters seem to be on the top of their game.
I edited my post, it was more in reference to Bernie or Busters and how there...seem to be some striking similarities to Mélenchon voters.
Macron is not clinton and marine le pen is not trump either.Marine le pen is a known quantity while Macron is kinda fresh compared to hilary Macron already has a lot of people guaranteed to vote for him on sunday. The question at this point is how large of a landslide win it will be at this point.Some people will definitely abstain or vote blank on sunday but it won't be enough to tip the election in Le Pen's favor.
Seeing her previous debate performances I don't think she will even come close to killing Macron at the debate.
harriet the spy
Member
Sometimes you argue with people because you try to convince them - sometimes you feel they are not worth the effort, are not trying to convince them and just feel like calling them the idiots they are. It's just carhartic, not school debate.
whyamihere
Banned
Palette Swap
Member
You write this like the issues aren't well known and haven't been for years. Yes, there's terrible inequality, yes there's mass unemployment, particularly in some areas, for certain jobs and for certain demographics, yes, people feel unsafe, including culturally, and generally speaking they're looking for anyone who'll offer them a way to chin up or at least punch back at their perceived tormentors.
No one disputes this.
But electing a bunch of crazy crooks will only make things worse:
- when they attack institutions and public services, they'll finish destroying any kind of decent safety net and will break the underlying norms that give the little man not enough but more than he will with them.
- when they start rolling out their insane monetary policy, people will be really fucking surprised that their savings and salaries aren't worth shit in these monopoly bills. Nevermind that the debt will still be in euros and we'll be doubly fucked. But hey, a new carrier will protect us.
- when they start tariff wars, the lowest paid will be the first to not be able to afford imported goods.
- when they roll out their parliamentary plans, good luck voting them out.
- when they start their Conseil du Journalisme that oversees what can be said, good luck calling them out.
But hey, you'll have thrown everyone else under the bus and it will be worth it, while fucking over a continent of half a billion people and destroying the world's largest economy. Good fucking job. Clap clap.
whyamihere
Banned
.
GalacticSushiman
Member
Listen, ultra-liberalism is a school of thought mainly created by a mister Friedrich Hayeck, and then pushed forward by many other, and which is rooted in much older 'classical' theories of the economy. It simply tells you that the market - as in the aggregation of all markets - will balance itself alone through price and quantity, and that nothing, especially not the state, should influence any of it in any way. There should not be any kind of worker protection, nothing should be public - not even police, nor justice - there should not be a minimum wage in any market, state should never EVER give subsidies/tax breaks/help a private company, etc.
Last time I checked Macron did not want to privatize the French justice, nor did he say he wanted to kill minimum wages, or leave the EU? (the EU from a ultra-liberal standpoint is an aberration, stuff like the 'politique agricole commune', or states helping (bailing?) each other with money is at the exact opposite of what they think.)
Nobody is technically speaking a 'ultra-liberal' (or very very few), but some used the word as a 'banner' for a group of people who would like to limit a lot all state interventions in the economy.
In France, it's more of an insult used by the left and ultra-right to the center/right wing guys. It means 'rich guys' / 'bankers' / 'finance', which has nothing to do with what it is, really. Most bankers are super happy when the state save their ass by bailing all major investment banks after the last bubble burst in Wall Street
But any ultra-liberal guy will tell you that those banks should have died, the market was right, and that the bail was a catastrophic idea because it will set bankers up to fail again as they know the state will save them (the 'too big to fail' theory).In a word, sorry but there are still many (many many) more 'controlled'/'state administered' companies and markets in France to be even close to be as 'liberalized' as the USA or Canada. Which does not mean north america is super liberal, they actually aren't on an awful lot of subject, and Trump push for more protectionism is going against liberalism even more (but the delta remains deep
).tldr: ultra liberalism is just a theory, far from being close to anything we know, and yes the US are still more liberalized than France and the EU in general (although the UK are a different beast...).
Love them since the first album, grew up listening to this and other warp/skam stuff
Even after this shitfest, I am going to vote for Macron but I'm only doing it for me and the people I relate with. Here's the thing: being a minority in France, I have the obligation to vote against the FN and I'm trying to convince others to do so.
I keep reading, here and elsewhere: "LePen is going to send them/you back to their/your country". This is just a misleading hyperbolic statement. I often hear that view of racism through pink tinted glasses. I don't want to blame but I am tired of this shit so just think about it for a second.
We are living in a country where racism is hidden in plain sight. If LePen is elected, some idiots will show their true racism. It's already hard enough to find a flat or get along with the police, I do not want to have to deal with me or my friends beaten at night by some skinheads. There are others European countries we shouldn't take an example from.
Using your Macron vote is good against fascism but what's next? Maybe it is time to really think about what we do outside of presidential elections to fight our country struggles. I think he will be elected regardless of what the FI will vote but whatever. While most people will resume their politico-social agenda 5-years from now, some others will be ready on Monday.
I keep reading, here and elsewhere: "LePen is going to send them/you back to their/your country". This is just a misleading hyperbolic statement. I often hear that view of racism through pink tinted glasses. I don't want to blame but I am tired of this shit so just think about it for a second.
We are living in a country where racism is hidden in plain sight. If LePen is elected, some idiots will show their true racism. It's already hard enough to find a flat or get along with the police, I do not want to have to deal with me or my friends beaten at night by some skinheads. There are others European countries we shouldn't take an example from.
Using your Macron vote is good against fascism but what's next? Maybe it is time to really think about what we do outside of presidential elections to fight our country struggles. I think he will be elected regardless of what the FI will vote but whatever. While most people will resume their politico-social agenda 5-years from now, some others will be ready on Monday.
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