Your "logic" said very little about the significance of the boost except to say that "logically" the Wii would get the biggest boost when in fact that wasn't true and probably wouldn't have even been true had shortages not been a problem. What I agreed with was that the possibility of a boost could exist on certain Nintendo systems, even if it has virtually no impact on the numbers. Look, I'm saying that you either stop right there with that point or take the point to its natural conclusion and go through a full examination of the numbers. What you do is take something unsubstantiated and make a big deal about it under the guise of common sense. Bullshit. The burden of proof exists with the one who is making the claim. Proof being the operative word. If you're going to talk about possibilities, then you can get away with throwing out a hypothesis. But if you're going to say that it is significant, then you need to delve deep into the logic of the situation.
You haven't even said why this one factor is more important than all of the other factors so much that it alone is the sole reason why Nintendo products supposedly get a boost when they do (and it supposedly doesn't effect your little hypothesis when they don't), and that right there invalidates the entire claim. If you don't try to prove why this factor is so important that it can shift the numbers, then who knows how significant it really is. Your logic did nothing to prove that the Wii would have a significant bump. If this was common sense, it would have happened. And before you object about shortages invalidating the entire thing, let's extrapolate for this Christmas. Assuming that the Xbox 360 sells as much this holiday as it did last, the Wii would have to sell an average of 2.6 million in order to match it. That's not just December. That's an average over November and December, and that's with a badly shortage constrained January. Remove January and it rises to 2.8 million. We're talking December sales in excess of 3 or 3.5 million. And with the way the Wii is selling, that might be possible if they get consoles out, but that's just to match the 360's holiday growth. If it's such common sense, then why are the numbers so much of a reach? Why does it not bare itself out all the time? You can't say that there are other factors and then say that this is common sense because those factors make this issue far more complex than simple common sense allows. And if you're not going to turn to the numbers, then all it remains is a hypothesis without any proof.
Why should all of November count when all of November isn't a holiday? That makes no sense. There isn't any perfect solution since we don't have pre and post Thanksgiving numbers, but counting all of November does obfuscate the point further.
Not all price drops are equal. In fact, the Gamecube did get a bigger boost during the 2003 holidays, where as the Xbox remained flat and the PS2 actually dropped compared to the prior year. Obviously the price drop did have an impact and invalidates that year. There is also one full Gamecube year that does contradict your point, so already you're down to two years. Regardless, this is why your methodology sucks. You practically throw out any holiday that doesn't prove your point because suddenly it's tainted by other factors such as with the Wii. But any other year proves your point without examining all of the variables? Console sales are made up by ever shifting factors. If I posit a reasonable explanation of why things turned out the way they did, why should that have less credence than your children explanation? Common sense? Bullshit. My explanations can make complete logical sense. Without any real proof, they're all explanations that might or might not be true.
As for the DS, I never said that it had anything to do with the Lite. I said that the Lite resulted in one surge. What I am saying is that year after year the DS gains more and more momentum. In the first ten months of 2007, the DS sold an average of 440k. The DS then saw a really nice percentage increase of 4.5x. However, the DS continued that momentum and increased the rate to 540k per month. If you use that number instead, then its percentage increase would have been the exact same as the PSP. The DS had a February 2008 that was basically bigger than anything in 2007 outside of the holidays, and its March was record breaking (it had a few more months like that too). If the rates only increased during the holidays, then it's merely isolated to the holidays. But if the holidays lead to an even bigger year, then perhaps the holidays are subjected to the same factors that led to the big 2008. This logic depends on what happens this holiday. If the combined November and December are in excess of 4.5 million, then the DS simply performs better during the holidays, and we can then discuss whether you have a point. If it's under 4.5 million, then it will probably line up with the 360's expected numbers. If it flatlines, then it will probably be at least on the levels of the PSP.
I'm willing to change my theory if it doesn't work out. I altered my theory when I looked really hard at the DS vs. PSP numbers. I'm not necessarily trying to destroy your hypothesis from the ground level. I am asking you to provide some rational explanations for why you think you're correct. Common sense might cut it in your own mind, but on any logical level, no rational person is going to accept that as an answer. I don't give a damn if for some reason this all turns out to be true. Anyone should be willing to amend his beliefs. I am questioning your dubious line of thinking. If it does turn out to be true, then it will be true despite your arguments.
