Is the current PS4 already $299 in the US in most places or so? I don't understand why they'd skip $299 otherwise. Just because of the cost reductions or because of the XBox One S with 4K BD?
Psychologically, $349 to $299 is already a big step. Special promotions / bundles can bring it down further or add more value. It'll definitely be $249 around Black Friday.
OG PS4 has already been $299 for an extended period of time late 2015, including Battlefront at one point.
Including store credit, I paid $209 for my UC PS4 on Black Friday 2015.
If they had followed a regular pricing pattern, the PS4 would already be $299, and it is including a high profile 3rd party $60 AAA at $349.
Imo $299 would be a big miss, but they'd still sell plenty of it.
$249+UCC voucher (or TLOU, or Infamous2) would be def where I would see them going.
BF deals would be still $249 but with game collection, some stores prolly offering a $50 gift card.