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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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B

Brinbe

Member
Hobbestetrician said:
They still have Pennsylvania and Michigan listed as toss-ups right now so I think we can safely ignore their map. I thought they were just an aggregating site but slowly started to see their right slant with the videos/articles they posted and how they decided toss-ups.
Click to expand...

Yeah, RCP has always had a blatant rightly-slant, but it's a useful aggregating site, as you said, especially for polling and general news. Just ignore their analysis.

Anyway, that Reuters poll is just more bad news for Obama.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
witness said:
If he wins this shitty state again, then this place would be totally redeemed for me. If he gets Florida then he just needs to win any other battleground. After voting in horrible senators and governors recently, fuck you Rubio and Rick Scott, its time to redeem yourselves Florida.
Click to expand...

he already has nevada. if he wins florida, he could lose iowa, ohio, virginia, north carolina, colorado, wisconsin, and new hampshire, and win the election.
 
D

Downhome

Member
From Drudge, and yeah I know, but still...

DEBATE 3 RATINGS:

FOXNEWS pulls over 11.5 million viewers -- making it FNC's highest rated telecast EVER... DEVELOPING...
Click to expand...

I expected it to be much lower considering everything else that was on and the fact that the subject, well, a lot of people just don't care about it.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...tion-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

Romney's surge on Intrade explained

Here’s the backstory: On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney had surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, perhaps, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 pushing Romney’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted about six minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are now back at around 41 percent.

As Wolfers pointed out, this mysterious trader ended up overpaying by about $1,250 for shares that quickly collapsed in value. Was this just someone who made a bad trade? Or was somebody trying to influence Intrade odds in order to sway perceptions of the race? And, if so, was it worth $1,250 to jolt the markets for less than 10 minutes?
Click to expand...
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Hobbestetrician said:
They still have Pennsylvania and Michigan listed as toss-ups right now so I think we can safely ignore their map. I thought they were just an aggregating site but slowly started to see their right slant with the videos/articles they posted and how they decided toss-ups.
Click to expand...

They are definitely a right-leaning site. Just read the headlines
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Downhome said:
From Drudge, and yeah I know, but still...



I expected it to be much lower considering everything else that was on and the fact that the subject, well, a lot of people just don't care about it.
Click to expand...

11.5m sad, depressed people.

gonna stand by my 50m for the debate as a whole. up considerably over the 2008 third debate, down considerably from the previous two.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Romney still surging. If it doesn't stop this week...

I wish it was like Thursday or Friday so we'd have a better idea of what the debate did or didn't so
Click to expand...
Honestly I think we're just seeing mostly noise where they go up and down.

I partly wonder if weekend samples are more right leaning which would explain a bit.

It's impossible to discern how much of this is randomness. Key is Obama still ahead when you ignore gallup
 
L

LosDaddie

Banned
witness said:
If he wins this shitty state again, then this place would be totally redeemed for me. If he gets Florida then he just needs to win any other battleground. After voting in horrible senators and governors recently, fuck you Rubio and Rick Scott, its time to redeem yourselves Florida.
Click to expand...

I'll be early voting on MOnday (at 7am), but I don't expect Obama to win FL. But hey, what do I know?
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
Honestly I think we're just seeing mostly noise where they go up and down.

I partly wonder if weekend samples are more right leaning which would explain a bit.

It's impossible to discern how much of this is randomness. Key is Obama still ahead when you ignore gallup
Click to expand...

gallup and rasmussen.
i don't ignore either

in 2008, weekend samples were left-leaning, as younger people would actually be home during the day to answer phone calls.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
RustyNails said:
So same as last time when IBD polled.

Pretty sure the polls have stuck on a 1-2 point Obama lead. Gallup is the only outlier that's being driving the numbers down.
Click to expand...

That's pretty optimistic, polling averages have been tied/sub 1 advantage to Romney the past few days nationally.

Obama's lead in the Swing state continues to hold though.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
electricpirate said:
That's pretty optimistic, polling averages have been tied/sub 1 advantage to Romney the past few days nationally.

Obama's lead in the Swing state continues to hold though.
Click to expand...

talking points memo has obama at 0.5, rcp has romney at 0.7, 538 has obama at 1.2

538 will likely drop. tpm has the same numbers rcp does though. i think tpm weights them, and rcp does a straight-up average.

also: ppp polls out today? i thought that was the case.
 
K

Kurtofan

Member
Interesting graph, sorry if this was already posted.

aLPMt.gif
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
Just out of curiousity, with respect to the presidential race. What is the current electoral vote count for all states that are considered to be locked for Obama and Romney?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Kurtofan said:
Interesting graph, sorry if this was already posted.
Click to expand...

The funniest thing about that graph to me is Kenya's super high rate of participation -- they're third in support for Obama and first in support for Romney. They've all got opinions!

Also a little sad how disaffected Mexico is and amusing how much Spain hates Romney for mocking them in the first debate.
 
E

Effect

Member
Speaking of Ohio. The county that is suppose to have the voting machines that are owned by the company Tagg Romney is invested in. Are they in dem counties or republican counties? I know some people are reporting on this but it has not been pick up by the big media and I doubt it will be. If there is really an issue I would hope at least the Obama campaign is looking into it or at least planning for situations like this.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Earthstrike said:
Just out of curiousity, with respect to the presidential race. What is the current electoral vote count for all states that are considered to be locked for Obama and Romney?
Click to expand...

Obama: 207 (CA, NY, MA, ME, VT, CT, RI, NJ, DC, DE, OR, WA, MN, NM, NV, IL, MD, HI)
Romney: 206 (TX, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, WV, KY, IN, AK)
Really Obama: 243 (the above, plus PA and MI)
 
M

markatisu

Member
pigeon said:
Obama: 207 (CA, NY, MA, ME, VT, CT, RI, NJ, DC, DE, OR, WA, MN, NM, NV, IL, MD, HI)
Romney: 206 (TX, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, WV, KY, IN, AK)
Really Obama: 243 (the above, plus PA and MI)
Click to expand...

This is the big picture everyone always missed, Obama basically starts off only needing 28 electoral votes and having a wide variety of options to get them. Romney starts needing 64 which makes it much much harder.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
AniHawk said:
talking points memo has obama at 0.5, rcp has romney at 0.7, 538 has obama at 1.2

538 will likely drop. tpm has the same numbers rcp does though. i think tpm weights them, and rcp does a straight-up average.

also: ppp polls out today? i thought that was the case.
Click to expand...

RCP updates every day with the latest tracker. TPM updates each tracker with the frequency of their polling range. (So a 4-day tracker is updated every four days on TPM's averages.)

It makes their trendline less sensitive to the daily noise from all the trackers, but it can also cause a delay when there's a shift in the trackers to when it hits their averages.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Effect said:
Speaking of Ohio. The county that is suppose to have the voting machines that are owned by the company Tagg Romney is invested in. Are they in dem counties or republican counties? I know some people are reporting on this but it has not been pick up by the big media and I doubt it will be. If there is really an issue I would hope at least the Obama campaign is looking into it or at least planning for situations like this.
Click to expand...

Hamilton County usually goes red but it went blue in 2008. It's one of the counties.

In Ohio in 2004, some precincts had exit polls where Kerry overperformed up to 28% compared to the actual counted returns for those precincts. Statewide, Kerry won the exit polls by 4.2%, yet he lost the state by 2.5%.

I'm NOT a conspiracy theorist, but Ohio 2004 looked sketchy as fuck. I'd actually like someone to convince me otherwise. Hopefully the exit pollers fucked up somehow and the election was not stolen.
 
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