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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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2016
PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Jeb is a mistake. Jeb is a huge mess

2015
PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops RIP
PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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2014
PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World/You are already Kay Hagan
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2013
PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout
PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1
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2012
PoliGaf 2012 |OT6| OBAMA
United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing…
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

2011
PoliGAF 2011: Forum member gridlock causes inaction on thread title naming crisis
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2010
Poligaf episode 2010: The Empire Strikes Back
PoliGAF 2010: On our way to November 2
PoliGAF 2010: Home Of "By The Time I Get To Arizona"

2009
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA Checkin' Off His List
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA's First 100 Out of the Way


Title credit to Makai.
 

Holmes

Member
Well the Democratic party is probably going to take Sanders down more forcefully in the coming weeks.
 

Paskil

Member
Posting in a new thread. Curious to see if tonight has any impact on upcoming states. Can't wait for next Tuesday.

I'd also like to know how much each spent in Michigan. How much fundraising will this get for Bernie?
 
Well the Democratic party is probably going to take Sanders down more forcefully in the coming weeks.

Nah, the vibe I'm getting from the party is that they think Hillary's got this even if it takes a while, and they'd rather kill Sanders' supporters with kindness than risk alienating them. I think they recognize that if Bernie can bring young people into the process and get them involved, that's ultimately a positive in November.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Reposting my last thought from the other thread:

I am genuinely amazed that millennial liberals aren't turning out for the first candidate to ever frame issues of oppression in terms of intersectionality. I hadn't realized a.) just how effective a 20 year smear campaign could be and b.) just how much other "considerations" go out the window when you find a candidate who taps into economic bitterness
 
Okay, let's all come to terms with something right now.

Hillary's got a white people problem. They don't like her. They're not voting for her. She's losing big to blue collar white folk and that's why she lost Michigan tonight.

Detroit voted for her. Everywhere else didn't. So I think when California rolls around, or New York, there's a chance she might lose either of those two. And if she does, that's it for her.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I think you're waaaay overestimating how popular and well known that kind of rhetoric actually is.

Might be popular on GAF, but even in a lot of pretty hardcore liberal places it's extremely divisive (assuming it's even known at all).

Maybe its mostly a Twitter thing, but some people's rhetoric is ringing a bit hollow in the face of this election. I have a bunch of thoughts I probably won't put out "there" until this blows over
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I love that gif.

Okay, let's all come to terms with something right now.

Hillary's got a white people problem. They don't like her. They're not voting for her. She's losing big to blue collar white folk and that's why she lost Michigan tonight.

Detroit voted for her. Everywhere else didn't. So I think when California rolls around, or New York, there's a chance she might lose either of those two. And if she does, that's it for her.

No way does she lose New York. We elected her to the senate twice. NYC alone is enough to decide the entire primary. Also, she won white people in other states.
 
Okay, let's all come to terms with something right now.

Hillary's got a white people problem. They don't like her. They're not voting for her. She's losing big to blue collar white folk and that's why she lost Michigan tonight.

Detroit voted for her. Everywhere else didn't. So I think when California rolls around, or New York, there's a chance she might lose either of those two. And if she does, that's it for her.

Something else that might affect the math going forward, too, is that Bernie doesn't have as much (emphasis on as much) of a black people problem as the deep south seemed to indicate. If he maintains about 1/3 of the black vote in non-southern states, that probably boosts his prospects in places like California and New York.
 

HUELEN10

Member
Kristoffer's other thread is really pushing me to vote Trump if Clinton wins. That was a powerful ad man.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Okay, let's all come to terms with something right now.

Hillary's got a white people problem. They don't like her. They're not voting for her. She's losing big to blue collar white folk and that's why she lost Michigan tonight.

Detroit voted for her. Everywhere else didn't. So I think when California rolls around, or New York, there's a chance she might lose either of those two. And if she does, that's it for her.

The real question is just how much does California resonate with his rhetoric?
 
I love that gif.



No way does she lose New York. We elected her to the senate twice. NYC alone is enough to decide the entire primary. Also, she won white people in other states.

I think NY will be a lot closer than people expect. It shares a long border with Vermont and has a good number of college towns.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
This suggests that Clinton doesn't have real flaws as a candidate and that the problem is the voters not recognizing what's best for them. The voters aren't to blame here.

Black turnout wasn't what it needed to be for her to win, and Michigan also has a lot of colleges/universities (and black people attend them). There are also a lot of rural areas in the state that have been devastated by the decline of manufacturing. "Saving the auto industry" is a tag that works in a general election when you're running against someone who literally said "let Detroit go bankrupt." It doesn't work as well in a primary when you supported trade deals that are deeply unpopular and people on the ground know that while jobs were saved, a lot are gone. Bad mix.

Makes me curious about Ohio.

I'm talking more to the rhetoric I see around both her and Bernie from, well, liberal millennials. I'm seeing what looks like an inversion of otherwise stated priorities that sort of honestly confuses me. Of course she has flaws as a candidate, and there are things she's likely to do in office, probably related to foreign policy, that I'm going to disagree strongly with. But its crazy to me how the right wing talking points about her have been so eagerly swallowed by a subset of the left
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I think NY will be a lot closer than people expect. It shares a long border with Vermont and has a good number of college towns.

At the same time, NYC and the suburbs are like 60% of the state's population. It's like Detroit on steroids and doesn't have the same sort of issues that play into his rhetoric.
 
An atheist Jew apparently winning the Muslim vote tonight in Michigan (based on Dearborn going 2/3 for Bernie) is honestly impressive. Not much to choose from as a Muslim voter (between Bernie's bizarre praise for horrible dictators oppressing Muslims and Hillary's eagerness to murder those dictators and nation build for decades which often hurts Muslims), but it's still interesting.
 
No way does she lose New York. We elected her to the senate twice. NYC alone is enough to decide the entire primary. Also, she won white people in other states.
Sure, but New York leans farther left than the states she's losing right now. Taking down Wall Street will resonate big in that city, and Clinton's never going to release her transcripts.

Something else that might affect the math going forward, too, is that Bernie doesn't have as much (emphasis on as much) of a black people problem as the deep south seemed to indicate. If he maintains about 1/3 of the black vote in non-southern states, that probably boosts his prospects in places like California and New York.
Yeah, I agree with this.

Kristoffer's other thread is really pushing me to vote Trump if Clinton wins. That was a powerful ad man.
Wtf, man, I was trying to compare Goldwater to Trump!

The real question is just how much does California resonate with his rhetoric?
I live here. A lot.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Sure, but New York leans farther left than the states she's losing right now. Taking down Wall Street will resonate big in that city, and Clinton's never going to release her transcripts.

I don't think it will. Police brutality and guns are a lot bigger here. Plus she's got the support of not only the mayor but the governor and those two can't agree on shit. deBlasio is basically everything Bernie supporters wish he was.
 

HUELEN10

Member
Wtf, man, I was trying to compare Goldwater to Trump!

Really? I assure you, that thread had the opposite effect on me. All this time, even though I think he's horrible, I have been rooting for Trump in the Clinton Vs Trump scenario, but you and that video right completely: by not voting, it means you don't care who the president it. Well, I do care, and I don't want her to be Hillary.

I really don't want to vote for him, but in the minuscule chance that scenario happens and I do, you are partially to thank for it.

And I mean it, thank you. Even though it is an ad, there is wisdom in that vid.
 

kirblar

Member
I'm talking more to the rhetoric I see around both her and Bernie from, well, liberal millennials. I'm seeing what looks like an inversion of otherwise stated priorities that sort of honestly confuses me. Of course she has flaws as a candidate, and there are things she's likely to do in office, probably related to foreign policy, that I'm going to disagree strongly with. But its crazy to me how the right wing talking points about her have been so eagerly swallowed by a subset of the left
Clinton is the polar opposite of a traditional successful D nominee. Kennedy, Clinton, Obama- there's a type that does really well among dems. She's the polar opposite.
 

Makai

Member
Really? I assure you, that thread had the opposite effect on me. All this time, even though I think he's horrible, I have been rooting for Drumpf in the Clinton Vs Drumpf scenario, but you and that video right completely: by not voting, it means you don't care who the president it. Well, I do care, and I don't want her to be Hillary.

I really don't want to vote for him, but in the minuscule chance that scenario happens and I do, you are partially to thank for it.

And I mean it, thank you. Even though it is an ad, there is wisdom in that vid.
High five. I love this response.
 
It could be many factors that played into what happened, but it might one time event. I suspect that many pollsters will look back at this and look at what happened. It might have been the trade deal talk, but it might not be. I still think that Hillary will win most of the states in the 15th, but regardless it is going to look bad on her with concern trolling and Sander's team raising excitement about him beating projections. It could just be Michigan, but I suspect it might effect other states.

I think Hillary will adjust her strategy to make sure she does much better.
 
Someone who is a fan of Ben Carson wanting to vote for president a man who has been successfully sued for anti-black discrimination multiple times while calling for innocent black kids to be executed is ????????
 

Holmes

Member
Clinton really needs to work on her GOTV operation. Turnout in Detroit was nowhere it needed to be, whereas it was better in other parts of the state.
 
Predictit people are morons. Trump has a huge night, rises to 70c, then promptly falls to 65c. What the fuck is wrong with these people?
 
Really? I assure you, that thread had the opposite effect on me. All this time, even though I think he's horrible, I have been rooting for Trump in the Clinton Vs Trump scenario, but you and that video right completely: by not voting, it means you don't care who the president it. Well, I do care, and I don't want her to be Hillary.

I really don't want to vote for him, but in the minuscule chance that scenario happens and I do, you are partially to thank for it.

And I mean it, thank you. Even though it is an ad, there is wisdom in that vid.

You know what? A couple of hours ago, I had a revelation that if Bernie wins the nomination, I'm going to vote for Trump. I would rather throw the election to the republicans for four years and let them continue to destroy their own party and embitter Americans than let Bernie complete the polarization of the democratic party the same way the wingnut-right has completed theirs. Then we can let Clinton run again in 4 years and save the country, and Sanders will be dead by then. That's how I feel.

Bernie Sanders is a demagogue. He's wrong about everything, he's impervious to facts, he's excessively reductionist, he's unqualified, and the worst thing of all: he's not even a Democrat. If you want to run the progressive movement into the ground and see meaningful college reform, financial system reform, and healthcare reform all disappear in front of our very eyes, go ahead and vote Sanders. Me, the only president I would be happy with is currently the only Democrat running for office.
 
Clinton really needs to work on her GOTV operation. Turnout in Detroit was nowhere it needed to be, whereas it was better in other parts of the state.

Someone on CNN said that the campaign said that the turnout maybe was low( I guess for places she could have won).
 

Oltsu

Banned
Well the Democratic party is probably going to take Sanders down more forcefully in the coming weeks.

Worst idea ever. Since the GOP is blowing itself up and their primary is not even close to being finished there's no rush for Clinton to do a GE pivot yet. And that's especially true if doing that early GE pivot would require some sort of force from the democratic party against Sanders.

That sounds like a dream scenario for the GOP. Sanders supporters who hate the dem establishment more than ever just so Clinton could run 2 more negative ads against Trump slightly earlier.

Maybe its mostly a Twitter thing, but some people's rhetoric is ringing a bit hollow in the face of this election. I have a bunch of thoughts I probably won't put out "there" until this blows over

Well I mean I don't really know what exactly you're referring to here but I would note that the Dem umbrella is pretty fucking big and if we want it to stay that way it might be a good idea to steer away from certain types of rhetoric that some demographics might find distasteful.

I'll be honest and say that I personally find a lot of the talking points of the social progressives (in modern US/UK/etc) pretty annoying. And often I actually agree with the message behind those talking points. But the rhetoric just sometimes feels like it's designed to be divisive and to make good headlines, not build coalitions of similar (not the same!) minded people.
 

Crocodile

Member
Clinton is the polar opposite of a traditional successful D nominee. Kennedy, Clinton, Obama- there's a type that does really well among dems. She's the polar opposite.

What exactly do you mean by this?

You know what? A couple of hours ago, I had a revelation that if Bernie wins the nomination, I'm going to vote for Trump. I would rather throw the election to the republicans for four years and let them continue to destroy their own party and embitter Americans than let Bernie complete the polarization of the democratic party the same way the wingnut-right has completed theirs. Then we can let Clinton run again in 4 years and save the country, and Sanders will be dead by then. That's how I feel.

Bernie Sanders is a demagogue. He's wrong about everything, he's impervious to facts, he's excessively reductionist, he's unqualified, and the worst thing of all: he's not even a Democrat. If you want to run the progressive movement into the ground and see meaningful college reform, financial system reform, and healthcare reform all disappear in front of our very eyes, go ahead and vote Sanders. Me, the only president I would be happy with is currently the only Democrat running for office.

Accelerationism is stupid >_<
 
Predictit people are morons. Trump has a huge night, rises to 70c, then promptly falls to 65c. What the fuck is wrong with these people?

Cruz's pretty good night+Rubio's nightmarish night could lead to Cruz vs. Trump one-on-one soon with Cruz in an okay position (IF Cruz wins Ohio) and that could be uncomfortable for Trump.
 

HUELEN10

Member
You know what? A couple of hours ago, I had a revelation that if Bernie wins the nomination, I'm going to vote for Trump. I would rather throw the election to the republicans for four years and let them continue to destroy their own party and embitter Americans than let Bernie complete the polarization of the democratic party the same way the wingnut-right has completed theirs. Then we can let Clinton run again in 4 years and save the country, and Sanders will be dead by then. That's how I feel.

Bernie Sanders is a demagogue. He's wrong about everything, he's impervious to facts, he's excessively reductionist, he's unqualified, and the worst thing of all: he's not even a Democrat. If you want to run the progressive movement into the ground and see meaningful college reform, financial system reform, and healthcare reform all disappear in front of our very eyes, go ahead and vote Sanders. Me, the only president I would be happy with is currently the only Democrat running for office.
I completely understand. Sanders is clearly a democrat in name only, that's actually one of the reasons I like him. I don't agree with all your points, I I respect them and completely understand where you are coming from.
 
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