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[Sandfox]

Almost Gold in 2 days?

Thats Platinum by the end of the week

March entire month could reach 2 Mil

I really doubt the stock and demand is there for that to happen in March.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It shows a lack of character, when people aren't willing to own up to their mistakes, and admit they were wrong.

I don't think I've ever seen someone admit they were wrong on the internet. It's all just double down, triple down, quadruple down, and finally abandon the discussion never to be heard from again.

 

[BakedYams]

Time to hide from people yelling doom and domination about these sales.

As Onizuka would.

 

[Putty]

Oh do close! I was only out by about 50% maybe I should of looked at previous console launch numbers first 8)

 

[Radec]

At least it outsold the PS3.

Baby steps.

And everyone else not named the PS2 and Wii.

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)

 

[LookAtMeGo]

If he gets a CDN ps4, X and O will probably be inverted with no way of changing it. This means that he won't be able to play some games which are coded in a way that O is both confirm and cancel. Like the new nobunaga's ambition. For many other games, he will have to deal with the extra annoyance of buttons switching roles as the game goes back and forth between the OS like when saving or loading. (example: pressing 0 to save then having to press x to confirm)

He won't be able to do certain things on the ps4 (video store, some apps) as long as he is not physically in Japan as well but I guess he could use a VPN? I haven't had much luck with those.

Thanks, will pass that along.

 

[Imperfected]

I don't think I've ever seen someone admit they were wrong on the internet. It's all just double down, triple down, quadruple down, and finally abandon the discussion never to be heard from again.

I'll be your first, then: I'm not sure if I actually said it anywhere, but my thinking for Japanese launch was closer to 500k, so I was clearly wrong.

I still would've liked a 500k launch, but it was obviously overly optimistic; even Sony apparently thought so, if what we've heard about their shipment numbers is correct.

 

[Takao]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

.

 

[boredandlazy]

Wonder if that includes digital sales?

 

[pLow7]

This is true.
Whenever you see or read anything about PS4, the universal truth is that everyone is hyped for FFXV. I figure the lead up to that will be substantial.

Thing is, it was nearly the same with PS3 and FF13/Versus 13, it didn’t end well.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Thing is, it was nearly the same with PS3 and FF13/Versus 13, it didn’t end well.

I can only speak for myself, but after FF-XIII I am extremely apprehensive of any future FF title.

 

[Terrell]

Only 20K higher than WiiU launch numbers for the same time period? I'm not sure why people are being so optimistic.

 

[Zornack]

Only 20K higher than WiiU launch numbers for the same time period? I'm not sure why people are being so optimistic.

February launch, poor launch software, more expensive and it still sold more.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Only 20K higher than WiiU launch numbers for the same time period? I'm not sure why people are being so optimistic.

It launched with better numbers in February...WiiU was a holiday launch

 

[IN&OUT]

Only 20K higher than WiiU launch numbers for the same time period? I'm not sure why people are being so optimistic.

also ONLY 50k lower than Wii, which had the luxury of launching during a holiday season. I'm not sure why people are being pessimistic ?

see what I did there?

 

[riskVSreward]

Wonder if that includes digital sales?

Excellent question. Does anyone even track digital sales in NA? They might be more prominent percentage wise in Japan.

 

[bigboss370]

From today:

I'd say about 90% of the predications I make pan out. I feel like I've been following the market long enough to see where things are heading. I could be wrong but I guess we'll see what happens. We had over a hundred big studios close down over the past gen and I don't see things getting better.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Only 20K higher than WiiU launch numbers for the same time period? I'm not sure why people are being so optimistic.

lol stop embarrassing yourself. Its also only 50k behind 3DS. Again anyone who thinks they can predict the PS4's future using these launch numbers should not be taken seriously, case in point to this poster.

 

[DR2K]

Pretty good for an Western console.

 

[pLow7]

I can only speak for myself, but after FF-XIII I am extremely apprehensive of any future FF title.

This. I was extremely hyped for every FF Game and nearly all of them matched my high Hopes, apart from FF13.
I just can’t hype myself for FF15 just because i fear, i will be disappointed.

 

[BocoDragon]

Pretty good for an Western console.

hahaha.

It's not Western! Mark Cerny's banging a Japanese broad.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

This. I was extremely hyped for every FF Game and nearly all of them matched my high Hopes, apart from FF13.
I just can’t hype myself for FF15 just because i fear, i will be disappointed.

Different team.

 

[Tripon]

lol stop embarrassing yourself. Its also only 50k behind 3DS. Again anyone who thinks they can predict the PS4's future using these launch numbers should not be taken seriously, case in point to this poster.

The launch software numbers are more telling. And man, those numbers are brutal.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The launch software numbers are more telling. And man, those numbers are brutal.

Okay. So what desperate conclusion have you reached about the PS4's future from these numbers?

 

[Jack cw]

Okay. So what desperate conclusion have you reached about the PS4's future from these numbers?

Launch numbers are pretty good, but software is what makes me think that the drop is going to be huge in the next week.

 

[Tripon]

Okay. So what desperate conclusion have you reached about the PS4's future from these numbers?

Nice way of framing the question. Makes everyone who has a different perspective on this look delusional and accusatory to you.

Anyway, if you think the PS4 can weather this software drought, go right ahead in thinking that. Best case scenario is that the PS4 continues to sell decently due to high early adopter demand, and awful software rates.

Hopefully I'm wrong. But man, there's just nothing out there.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Launch numbers are pretty good, but software is what makes me think that the drop is going to be huge in the next week.

I should elaborate. I meant long term future. What you said makes sense.

Nice way of framing the question. Makes everyone who has a different perspective on this look delusional to you.

Anyway, if you think the PS4 can weather this software drought, go right ahead in thinking that. Best case scenario is that the PS4 continues to sell decently due to high early adopter demand, and awful software rates.

Hopefully I'm wrong. But man, there's just nothing out there.

All I'm saying is you must be delusional if you think you can accurately predict PS4's situation in the long term using launch attach rates.

Short term I think its pretty obvious whats going to happen to Ps4 considering the barren release schedule.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

Yup. From the horrid software sales I take it that mainly hardcore fans who wanted the console no matter what is picking it up as soon as possible (ps+ games plays a part here too of course), but that there is a severe lack of compelling software to trigger a buy for everyone else.

 

[theprodigy]

Okay. So what desperate conclusion have you reached about the PS4's future from these numbers?

nice leading question you're asking there
can't phrase it without bias now?

All I'm saying is you must be delusional if you think you can accurately predict PS4's situation in the long term using launch attach rates.

Short term I think its pretty obvious whats going to happen to Ps4 considering the barren release schedule.

I think most people are forecasting short term right now, i.e. the next few weeks
and that's not looking good

 

[noobie]

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

.

These are some extremely low numbers.

 

[Tripon]

nice leading question you're asking there
can't phrase it without bias now?



I think most people are forecasting short term right now, i.e. the next few weeks
and that's not looking good

Right. Long term, it'll be fine. (Or whatever the closest approximation of fine is.) The next 3-6 months? It'll be a long, hard struggle.

 

[SaucyJack]

Blu-ray movies are region locked, but luckily, Canada/America and Japan share the same Blu-ray region, so they work.

I think Canada/American DVDs are locked to a separate region than Japan though. But who cares about DVD anymore?

The majority of Blu-ray movies (70% ish) are not region locked but this varies on a studio by studio basis e.g. 20th Century Fox tend to be region encoded, WB, Paramount, Sony, Universal, Disney tend to be region free.

http://blurayregioncodes.com/

 

[strangedopamine]

IIRC my prediction for launch was 4x the PS3 launch so I wasn't far off (about 30k roughly).

The software sales look pretty bad to be honest.

 

[Officerrob]

Yup. From the horrid software sales I take it that mainly hardcore fans who wanted the console no matter what is picking it up as soon as possible (ps+ games plays a part here too of course), but that there is a severe lack of compelling software to trigger a buy for everyone else.

I agree, I think sales for the console are going to fall off a cliff until more Japanese centric software comes out

 

[Melchiah]

I don't think I've ever seen someone admit they were wrong on the internet. It's all just double down, triple down, quadruple down, and finally abandon the discussion never to be heard from again.

I have, here on Gaf, and I've done so myself as well.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

hahaha.

It's not Western! Mark Cerny's banging a Japanese broad.

This is wrong on SO many levels.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

IIRC my prediction for launch was 4x the PS3 launch so I wasn't far off (about 30k roughly).

The software sales look pretty bad to be honest.

Yeah, i'm pretty surprised about that myself. They need to get some more japan focused software out, and fast.

 

[Burning Justice]

And everyone else not named the PS2 and Wii.

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)

...That's not really impressive at all. Other than PS3, which sold poorly initially because of its high price, none of those systems went on to do well in Japan.