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Self-driving trucks will hit the road in Ohio
- Thread starter Shard
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The problem is other industries are experiencing exactly the same phenomena. We've seen it with manufacturing (and globalisation and outsourcing of jobs has also contributed to this) and we're beginning to see it in the service industry. In fact it's one of the reasons truck drivers are comparatively ubiquitous. They've been, until now, the job you cannot easily eliminate.
At a certain point you're left asking people without tertiary degrees; what exactly jobs are left for them to do?
It'll be a while before they're gone. Once people start losing their jobs, politicians will start passing laws requiring a driver, playing on people's mistrust of machines. Trucking companies will fight back, but it will be easy to argue it's for 'safety' since the average person underestimates computers. It'll basically be a jobs program.
Of course the jobs will pay shit now since they can now hire almost anyone to just sit in the cabin, so that will be a pretty serious effectt.
The bubble don't just burst that way. Fast food is getting fucked hard, too.
The great thing about electing Trump is he really is the last gasp of neoliberalism. We can only hope this displacement issue expands as much as it can, for it forces us to demand real change, instead of piecemeal retrofitting that has ultimately failed.
entremet
Member
There's debate as to how accurate some of these classifications are but....
Most common jobs by state;
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state
Ouch.
Didn't know it was this widespread.
Another thing in a recent article I read, many of jobs are appealing because of the lack of office politicking. It's the type of blue collar ethic that many found appealing in Trump--Straight talk and autonomy.
Unless you're a genius like Steve Jobs, you can't go into any office and give straight talk.
Kill Your Masters
Member
Soon in Ohio: just "Truck"There's debate as to how accurate some of these classifications are but....
Most common jobs by state;
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state
Seductivpancakes
Member
I am curious on how fast they'll be replacing jobs.
HawksWinStanley
Member
Well is seems like at least once a month one of the expressways into the city are shut down because some dumb fuck trucker driver was going too fast on the ramp and overturned their trailer.
If automated cars keep these morons out of the driver seats then I'm all for it.
Long haul truckers account for 1.7+ million jobs.
when billions are in play you can bet will be faster than we think
ZackieChan
Member
That's a good point, and certainly something that needs to be dealt with. I'm just a video game lawyer, so I dunno what to do about it. I assume that people have a survival imperative, so they will either find work, make work, or turn to crime. Hopefully more of the former two.
Okay, so I look at some job numbers from 2016 (I don't know what these are based on and how many of them are in truck driving), and there are months where we create hundreds of thousands of jobs. Again, my understanding of macroeconomics is nonexistent, but that doesn't seem like a HUGE number of jobs to replace. Assuming the government of Trump actually does anything about it.
I realize that that is a large assumption.
perfectchaos007
Member
There's debate as to how accurate some of these classifications are but....
Most common jobs by state;
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state
Once robots start developing their own software we're fucked. We can't trust robots to make video games though, as evidenced by the video game No Mans Sky
150 years ago, 50% of Americans were employed in farming. Today it is 1%.
As the article the map being quoted states, Secretary was the #1 job in most states until the PC came along and replaced a lot of secretarial work.
The interesting thing is that the "Truck Driver" category that dominates today includes tractor drivers if you read the fine print; i.e. people employed by jobs using that farm machinery that took Farmer off the map. And the Software Developers are around because of the PCs that led to the downfall of Secretary. You can see the cyclical nature.
As the article the map being quoted states, Secretary was the #1 job in most states until the PC came along and replaced a lot of secretarial work.
The interesting thing is that the "Truck Driver" category that dominates today includes tractor drivers if you read the fine print; i.e. people employed by jobs using that farm machinery that took Farmer off the map. And the Software Developers are around because of the PCs that led to the downfall of Secretary. You can see the cyclical nature.
Because some companies believe its more safe for a computer to drive that a human. But a drivers jobs entails WAY more than just bringing a shipment in.
Who's gonna load/unload freight?
Who's gonna make sure the customer loads/unloads the correct freight?
Who's gonna take an exception if needed?
What happens it their is a hazmat spill during delivery on the road?
What if the customer has a question?
If freight becomes loose during delivery is the truck gonna clean it up?
What happens if the system glitches with time critical freight and no ones in the truck?
Who's gonna make sure the customer isnt loading in damaged freight that will come back as an exception to us.
Who's gonna fill the gas tank for those long hauls?
And so on...
shira
Member
Well you just have to be the guy that programs the AI, not the guy who loses his job to the AI.
as for that, I think that trucks will be divided into compartments that biometric sensors will open for the corresponding consumer.
Everything will get its workaround as this develops.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
Good. Punish them for voting for the orange clown.
This was happening even without Con Man.
Obama said his successor, whoever it was, would inherit the beginning of the changes to the economy caused by technological automation en masse.
It just so happens the person who won is probably the least equipped in the known universe to handle this.
Uber owns Otto. Uber is next. Uber is used a lot in cities, not just rural America.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
Well yeh I know that. My point is that they're simpletons who don't and somehow believe that the orange clown will save them.
afternoon delight
Member
LMAO the self driving vehicle is gonna be one hell of a destabilizing force! The tech companies are going to push such a big button, oh sweet pickles.
Wag
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Do you hear that, that rumbling in the distance? The last whispered gasps of the working man?
That's the sound of Trump being reelected.
That's the sound of Trump being reelected.
Digital-Hero
Member
Until Aiden Pearce gets to it... =P
bucknuticus
Member
Oh boy theyre testing on a stretch road i drive to get to work everyday
the_batman
Banned
definitely safer than human drivers, but hopefully the people will be re-trained or something to get new jobs.
won't they need a human on board anyway to monitor the truck's computer and take over just in case something happens?
won't they need a human on board anyway to monitor the truck's computer and take over just in case something happens?
Polioliolio
Member
Good, they probably won't go 80mph in a 55 zone.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news to both of your points, but I must.
For these dudes to be retrained, they'll likely have to be reeducated. This idea alone is bad in America, considering Trump's pick to head Education as well as the student loan crisis.
Regarding the second, that seems to be what the state regards for safety. For the state of Michigan, Otto is allowed to make and use trucks without steering wheels. How do you self-correct? It speaks confidence in the technology, and maybe even a "message" to send to places that have been left depraved and decrepit like Michigan, but steering wheels are optional. Uber similarly made such a "message" by making Pittsburg the first public trial run of their driverless cabs, most likely.
shira
Member
But those things sound very detached from developing software to fix non-rote problems.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
I believe this use of "creative destruction" is a fallacy of underestimating the range and domain of these technology driver changes versus what was available as task work in earlier ages. There is a hidden assumption in there that a new industry will create new human taskwork, when in reality, we can safely assume that won't be the case.
The second machine age / deep learning age doesn't come with a new industry that disrupts the older ones and creates new jobs, it just eliminates them. Or at least much more the other ones did.
Put differently: you can de-skill jobs to make them more accessible to people, but you can't re-skill them after you've removed the need for a human worker.
Also, arguments like these are common -read a few similar articles today- when you're not paying attention to what is already happening: massive youth unemployment and companies waiting to ditch the older ones (and people abandoning the job market altogether in greater numbers than before). While you may say that these are spread across the globe and thereby possibly random, I don't believe that is the case.
I also believe that ignoring that is what got Donald Trump elected as well. We'll have to see how France fares, but I'm not putting my hopes up for a leftist or central president.
also, on a different note: this is the same Kasich as the one that is NOT "effectively president" right now, right?
Here's what I imagine. Instead of having a human in every truck. Each truck drives itself, but streams its camera feeds to some control center in an office somewhere. One human, or a small team of humans can monitor several trucks and their routes. If anything comes up, a human can take control remotely, or direct the truck to perform some kind of safety measures.
Humans will still be involved, but we'll need a whole lot less of them. The economy is going to be fucked either way.
Ether_Snake
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Trump will bring back manufacturing jobs by putting tariffs on everything anyway.
GoldenEye 007
Member
How do the tariffs address the robots, though?
The ones who need it most will cry "NO HANDOUTS!"
It scares the shit out of me that cultural dogma will only make this serious issue degrees worse.
the_batman
Banned
well what about someone needed to unload the truck at its destination? all the pallets and totes needed to be quickly dropped off at various locations.
Why wouldn't that be mechanised too?
But how will we pull up our bootstraps?.
Pai Pai Master
Banned
Driver still needs to be in the truck to be there for the transfer of goods. I doubt most US businesses will be OK with receiving freight from an unmanned vehicle. Perhaps long-haul trucks can be unmanned but they'd probably transfer to a manned truck at a destination hub for final leg delivery.
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