Hyperactivity
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And again, it doesn't have to just do a better job, it just has to be more efficient/cost-effective at it
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Self-driving trucks will hit the road in Ohio
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And again, it doesn't have to just do a better job, it just has to be more efficient/cost-effective at it
hawkshockey11
Banned
Deep learning is cool but its not replacing STEM jobs alone. It's good at doing the part of the human mind that identifies or remembers things which is why things like basic diagnosing in healthcare will be taken over by systems like that but the real gritty parts of STEM fields will be safe for a while.
radios shipping overview
Member
I can't decide if it's technophilia or a huge hard-on for efficiency that makes people in these threads so excited to see automation happen on a massive scale. Are you CS people or MBAs? Either way, if you want to see working-class backlash the likes of which has never been seen, then keep promoting the introduction of automation that will line the pockets of execs and politicians. Given current and historical attitudes in this county toward the welfare state, we've got a long way to go before anything resembling a universal basic income ever happens here.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So, what are you advocating?
Should we go back to doing all work manually?
After all, it takes more people to dig a hole with shovels than a Excavator.
There are three paths. 1) ban technology and innovation to save "working class " jobs. 2) do nothing as working class get taken out of the market. 3) universal income to help working class
Working class just chose option 2.
ZackieChan
Member
Hopefully the rest of the business and working world doesn't suffer from your (and others in this thread) failure of imagination.
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
Well they aren't called the thinking class for a reason.....
triplestation
Member
Sounds scary to me
If I'm driving by some automated shit going 20+ mph I'll be praying that shit doesn't blue screen
If I'm driving by some automated shit going 20+ mph I'll be praying that shit doesn't blue screen
Subpar Spatula
Banned
Automation for skilled jobs won't actually occur for decades. Maybe even longer.
Right now it's a lot of "OK, let's get leaning AI to do very specific things for us". Like, a lot of manufacturing around the world is still done by humans. We haven't even perfected that. Humans will be slowly removed from the equation over decades. We're not going to see full automation in our life time just on how slow governments work.
Right now it's a lot of "OK, let's get leaning AI to do very specific things for us". Like, a lot of manufacturing around the world is still done by humans. We haven't even perfected that. Humans will be slowly removed from the equation over decades. We're not going to see full automation in our life time just on how slow governments work.
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
As a man who spent last summer working with truckers (and has a degree in transportation) I will say this. You could maybe automate long haul trucking but you likely need a human to drive in cities because the way most truck air breaks work you got to make a decision not just when to break but how to break as well. Eventually it'll be automated but probably no time soon. If the unions were smart they would try to get a politician to create a law similar to the jones act for shipping (that requires American crews to do transport between American ports) where a human would be required to do trucking within metropolitan areas. Will they do that..... Probably not but it's the only thing I could think of that could save a fair amount of trucking jobs and not stifle technology.
Also with that said Truckers are not the brightest people and accidents happen ALL the time. Like my co-workers and I would share multiple videos of the accidents that were recorded on the security cameras and they were always driver error. A computer could definitely replace 99% of truckers and probably do a better job. The caveat to that being trucking is actually one of the last good paying blue collar jobs that still exists. A person could make between 35-70 thousand depending on how much they was willing to do and wouldn't even need a Highschool diploma.
Also with that said Truckers are not the brightest people and accidents happen ALL the time. Like my co-workers and I would share multiple videos of the accidents that were recorded on the security cameras and they were always driver error. A computer could definitely replace 99% of truckers and probably do a better job. The caveat to that being trucking is actually one of the last good paying blue collar jobs that still exists. A person could make between 35-70 thousand depending on how much they was willing to do and wouldn't even need a Highschool diploma.
radios shipping overview
Member
Why not trot out the old horse-and-buggy line while you're at it?
Find ways to integrate automation technology while maintaining human employees to provide executive functions, security, maintenance, and so on. Understand that you're not going to automate the entire country's trucking fleet and infrastructure overnight. Understand that causing systemic instability in the interior of the country isn't a good tradeoff for performance/efficiency gains. Get into politics and work to move the Overton window back to the left and form a genuine social-democracy movement in this country that's capable of some influence. Get Democrats back into the local and state levels of government.
You can't just hollow out the interior of the country and expect somebody else to take care of the problem, unless you want to foster conditions that enable demagogues like Trump and Farage.
I just don't see how that is feasible in our lifetimes. Have we approached any sort of AI that can be given a new problem, completely unrelated to any problem it has seen before, and it can disassemble the problem in order to find a solution? At that point, why not just set that AI free to do all scientific research for us?
Muppet of a Man
Member
This country had a choice: it could have moved from Neoliberalism left to social democracy and everyone, especially the working class, would have been much better off for it. But instead a little less than half the country in predominantly white working class rural states decided trying corporate white nationalism would be the better option. And now everyone, especially those people, will suffer for it.
Get ready for these white nationalist corporate masters to royally fuck everyone over...because that is what they've been doing since the beginning of time.
Off the top of my head, a computer learned to play like 50 Atari games being told only to get a high score and nothing else. By the end it was a perfect player. A video game controller is not much different than a programming instruction. Both tell machine to do something.
AI is doing scientific research. AI will also replace all the research lawyers do.
Are these games deterministic? By that, I mean will the same digital input always lead to the same output?
That's a good question and I can't find a certain answer. If any of the Atari games have randomness the answer is no. If the computer played a human competitor the answer is no (like in pong).
But also based on how machine learning like this works and how this same system was used to learn Go (alpha go) the answer is almost surely no. In machine learning, any models that conform too perfectly to the test data (the data used for learning) is bad because it will not handle deviations well at all. But again, I cannot find any confirmation so it could be some super exact decision tree algorithm.
Aquavelvaman
Banned
I have faith that humanity can get past the need to work, that we can be a successful society in a post scarcity world. Enough work will be automated to where all can live comfortably, working as much or as little as suits them.
It's just that I'm pretty sure I'm going to starve to death or be trampled in a riot before that happens.
It's just that I'm pretty sure I'm going to starve to death or be trampled in a riot before that happens.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
It's your imagination concerning automation that's the problem.
Robots will literally be able to do anything we can do but better.
Your job as well.
Muppet of a Man
Member
This country had a choice: it could have moved from neoliberalism left to social democracy and everyone, especially the working class, would have been much better off for it. But instead a little less than half the country in predominantly white working class rural states decided trying corporate white nationalism would be the better option. And now everyone, especially those people, will suffer for it.
Get ready for these white nationalist corporate masters to royally fuck everyone over...because that is what they've been doing since the beginning of time.
If you want to quote one post to describe what just happened in this country, this one is it.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
That's literally the endgame. That's what we want to happen. Obviously not skynet, but we want a computer to solve our problems for us. Hopefully it doesn't rebel.
-COOLIO-
The Everyman
Being fully aware of this, I'm fairly certain that job scarcity is going to come from ai automation in the near future. As we automate things, the jobs we work get increasingly pointless. There's a limit to this. No one will want to pay someone to stand around and do nothing.
Jobs have always been replaced by new jobs... until now.
AI is nowhere in sight. We have algorithms that can solve a small subset of problems.
-COOLIO-
The Everyman
Symantics. A star pathfinding is an algorithm that computer scientists would say falls under the umbrella of rudimentary ai.
Vicetrailia
Member
Already huh. Well this, amongst other things is the future. We'll definitely need guaranteed income or some such one day, people should stop acting like everything is a hundred years off. Where's your vision.
Look forward to long-haul truckers being paid less under the suggestion that they do less work.
Look forward to long-haul truckers being paid less under the suggestion that they do less work.
You don't see how it is feasible in our lifetimes? A lot can happen in 60-90 years, you know. I'm not sure what you're asking with your question, though. Isn't every problem in some way related to something else? Besides, does it need to have been approached already if you're giving such a huge time window? I think it is very difficult to imagine what technology will look like 60-90 years from now. Especially with these recent developments in the field.
Having said that, perhaps neural nets and neural evolution address your question?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?annot...&feature=iv&src_vid=S9Y_I9vY8Qw&v=qv6UVOQ0F44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGr5660pFUs
Alx
Member
That's my take too. Modern planes today can basically take off, fly and land automatically, but we still have crews in the cockpit. Self-driving trucks will be better for the comfort of drivers, since they will be able to relax a bit more, but they're not going anywhere. Not before a long time, and not as long as there are regular people on the road too.
I'm under the impression Otto's stuff is just an enhanced cruise control, i.e. someone still needs to drive it in urban areas.
I guess you can still see a system where trucks drive themselves to hubs, and then a human takes over completes the run - at least until the technology eliminates the need for that part..
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
You don't need 3.5 million software developers to write the code replacing all those drivers.
Fallout-NL
Member
I really wonder how long it's going to be before everyone is reduced to the role of useless shit factory. Really feels as if we're on the verge of something, though I have to admit, it's felt that way for a while now. It's difficult to estimate whether we're overreacting or not anxious enough about coming changes.
shadowsdarknes
Member
All those trucks in the right lane and staying out of the left lane is giving me a hard on.
Why shovels? Let's go with spoons.
Then people can stay on one project for their whole lives, never having to worry it going away.
This is how it'd start, so I hope people don't get the idea that this only becomes a problem when people get displaced.
It will likely be delegation of tasks, thus cutting of hours/income, then comes displacement. Should a truck driver be paid as much as they are now if they're part of a platooning system? Absolutely not: they're literally just sitting in the truck with a tablet acting as oversight.
And mind you, this would very likely happen as we see more driverless cars on the road, and that begins the incentivization for those cars over regular ones with cheaper insurance and higher penalties for having a car lacking that technology, because you are a greater danger on the road lacking such capabilities once that's adopted en masse.
The push on trucks is the push on cars, which is the push on transportation. It'll force massive adoption by safety and economic manners.
I know, but I'm saying maybe software developer is #2 in a lot of those states right now.
I think that's a poor way of looking at it. Roughly a quarter of the population was going to vote R no matter who was on the ballot and on top of that some millions more decided to try white nationalism.
It may seem weird to this board after 8 years of Obama but there's always been that Republican base voting they just lost is all. You can consider all Trump voters your enemy, that's true enough in the grand scheme of things, however, the majority of them were always going to vote Republican. They've been choosing that same path fore decades now, they've wanted to starve the beast since Reagan. They didn't all make this choice now, once confronted with Trump, they've been voting the same since before many of you were born.
And really, not to defend the actual racist Trump supporters of which there are many, but a vote for Trump shouldn't automatically equal white nationalist in my opinion. Things are a little more complicated I think. Voting for Obama wasn't a vote for droning weddings or continuing the surveillance state. I don't know anyone who agrees 100% with their candidate. I agree that when faced with Trump's policy ideas in regards to minorities I hate that people think it's an OK cost to pay for the things they want, they should be disqualifiers, then again, if you think Hillary was a hawk, that'd lead to people getting killed overseas that should also be a disqualifier, right? Or are we doing the same thing, weighing foreign lives against liberal policies at home and saying their lives are less important than our own?
So politics is messy. But back to the point, Trump's conservative base never wanted gay marriage, never wanted refugees, never wanted illegal immigration, never wanted increased environmental regulations, this isn't a new choice for most of his supporters. It's not even necessarily a backlash to Obama's policies, the amount of people who actually won the election for Trump is relatively small. Of course that's little consolation when that doesn't matter and they'll likely try and roll everything back. But I don't think it's helpful to think literally half the country's against you.
Nikodemos
Member
This will likely hit agricultural drivers hardest. Their machinery doesn't run on public roads that often, and measures can be taken to keep them off permanently (via by-roads etc.). Once companies have taken their machinery completely off the public roads, it's going to be open season on ag drivers.
Correct. Half the country has always been against you.
Ehh, it's kinda inconsequential though if only half of that half actually ever votes. Just like half the country supports us and only half of them voted. Bastards. The truth is half the country may have a preference either way but are largely, made evident by their lack of voting, indifferent.
Sad thing is with our shitty election participation rates in effect it's always around a fourth of the country deciding everyone's fate.
Only a quarter of the population is truly and effectively against us. I don't see the value in declaring the other quarter that may prefer Trump but not enough to go out and support him or vote for him our enemy. Those people may have views we disagree with but by not voting are in no way trying to force their desired way of life on anyone else. What is gained by calling them out as well?
And more than that, if they're so bad then how fucking sick and evil must be the quarter of the population that agrees with us, that think Trump's a racist, wannabe authoritarian con-man and couldn't be bothered to vote? Wouldn't that be even worse? I can almost respect someone who hates the way the country's moving and stays out of it anyways letting it move forward and pass them by even when given opportunities to try and stop it but what of the liberals not showing up then? Blaming the non-voting conservatives in my opinion is bullshit when we should be blaming ourselves.
I am really surprised at the speed at which self driving technology is spreading through out the country. Even 5 years ago I would not have expected the rate at which the tech is not only progressing but making its way into the world. Its popping up everywhere and obviously its still in its infancy but I could see in another 5 or 10 years where self driving cars are not everywhere, but a common enough thing no one bats an eye.
Glendemonium
Member
There's debate as to how accurate some of these classifications are but....
Most common jobs by state;
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state
I'm more curious how Utah had a tech uprising. Where it's usually assumed all of it is in Cali. If I get a job there hope they don't expect me to be a Mormon. Wouldn't mind Colorado but I hear the COL is getting out of control.
A* didn't kill an industry. Neither has ML.
There may be a day when robots can do anything humans can do, and do it better and cheaper. But that day is not today. It is decades off, if ever.
I say "if ever" because the idea that it is inevitable that AIs will be better than humans is false. It assumes that human beings will stand still. But it is entirely possible that we will learn to bio-engineer or cybernetically enhance human brains to be better than AIs.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Ohio is going to go more red with Trump or the next candidate in 2020 harping on the good ol' idea of bringing jobs back, particularly truck driving jobs, knowing very well this is the future. And idiots will eat it up.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
I was being serious.
natjjohn
Member
If the jobs exit during republican strongholds of everything, I highly doubt they will be rewarded.
Woo-Fu
Banned
Instead you have a moron programmer who causes every automated truck to crash on that particular ramp.
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