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"Trump Tanks" - HuffPost

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M

Machina

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-clinton-polls_us_57a3bce9e4b03ba68011df9d

Fresh off of a post-convention bounce, Hillary Clinton is continuing to grow her lead over Donald Trump, according to new national polling released Thursday evening.

Clinton leads Trump by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent, in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. While both candidates remain unpopular, the survey finds, Clinton’s image has improved “modestly.” A majority of voters say they have more trust in her to handle a crisis and to deal with foreign policy.

A McClatchy-Marist poll gives Clinton an even wider 15-point lead against Trump, 48 percent to 33 percent. The survey finds Trump ceding ground among traditionally GOP demographics, losing men to Clinton by 8 points and holding just a 2-point edge among white voters.

Among other groups, he fares far more poorly. The NBC/WSJ and McClatchy-Marist surveys give Trump just 1 percent and 2 percent of the vote, respectively, among African-American voters.

“This is coming off the Democratic convention, where a bounce [for Clinton] is expected,” Marist polling director Lee Miringoff told McClatchy about Trump’s prospects. “What you don’t want is to have the worst week of your campaign.”

At the state level, new polling in traditional battlegrounds also showed Clinton with a significant edge over Trump. New surveys released Thursday gave her a 15-point lead in New Hampshire, a 9-point lead in Michigan, an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania and a 6-point lead in Florida.
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L

LUFTRAUSER

Banned
The survey finds Trump ceding ground among traditionally GOP demographics, losing men to Clinton by 8 points and holding just a 2-point edge among white voters.
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Where are all these white people that still think Trump would be a good leader? How does that even happen?
 
A

abstract alien

Member
I really should read up on how these polls actually work, as I've always had a hard time believing any poll I see. It seems like an easy thing to skew or spin in the direction you want.
 
Y

yanipheonu

Member
abstract alien said:
I really should read up on how these polls actually work, as I've always had a hard time believing any poll I see. It seems like an easy thing to skew or spin in the direction you want.
Click to expand...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I'd recommend aggregate sites over any given polls. I tend to follow 538's Election Forecast because of how accurate they've been in the past. Best way to follow the election IMO, though make sure to read up on the differences of the different predictions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Dems basically played a beautiful game of Tecmo's Deception these two weeks.

And Trump stepped on every. Single. Trap.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
i just watched the first episode of Louis CK's Horace and Pete, Amazing show and the guy that does a rant at the bar that people actually want the country to go down because it's not that great anyway, so let's get on with and vote Trump was amazing.
 
E

echoshifting

Banned
yanipheonu said:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I'd recommend aggregate sites over any given polls. I tend to follow 538's Election Forecast because of how accurate they've been in the past. Best way to follow the election IMO, though make sure to read up on the differences of the different predictions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
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The Nowcast is so fucking funny right now (other than things are really bad for Trump right now, which, obviously). I know it doesn't mean anything, but 91.5%?
 
F

fleck0

Member
LUFTRAUSER said:
Where are all these white people that still think Trump would be a good leader? How does that even happen?
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There are a ton of ignorant white people up and down the socioeconomic ladder, I'm surprised (and pleased) he has such a small lead in that poll, it's the only demographic he's targeted his entire campaign.
 
Y

yanipheonu

Member
So out of morbid curiosity I clicked on an Alex Jones bit on how Trump's whole situation is some media spin. Because of course it's all a lie right? /s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1Ds4_ufZHc

Funny stuff. It's literally some angry white guy complaining people are spinning the media as he spins the media in front your eyes.

Can't wait for the inevitable freak outs that they can't believe Trump didn't win even as polls get worse and gaffes continue.XD
 
P

Phased

Member
Only leading by 2 points among white voters is such a death sentence. They rely on that demo to make up for all the others.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
abstract alien said:
I really should read up on how these polls actually work, as I've always had a hard time believing any poll I see. It seems like an easy thing to skew or spin in the direction you want.
Click to expand...

They generally are, which actually makes this the more surprising. Usually national polls are much closer this time of year and you start to see the real gap the closer you get to election month. And that's a delibrate thing on the media's part to keep tensions seeming hot for ratings and clicks. A bump for Clinton was expected after the DNC, but not nearly this much. This is basically telling, at least to me, that the overall polling is so against Trump right now that they are having a difficult time shrewing it more to the middle. It's too early to call still, but this is good news.
 
U

uncelestial

Member
Phew. Right before the DNC, FiveThirtyEight's probability scores were 40% to 40% plus or minus a few tenths of a percent, and a few polls had Trump up in the popular vote.

The battle isn't over, but I'm glad we've got some momentum.
 
X

Xe4

Banned
echoshifting said:
The Nowcast is so fucking funny right now (other than things are really bad for Trump right now, which, obviously). I know it doesn't mean anything, but 91.5%?
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I'd the electionary was held today I think Clinton's odds would be evem higher, so I'd say the now cast is doing its job.

If you don't want to know what the election would be like if held today, ignore the nowcast.
 
E

echoshifting

Banned
Xe4 said:
I'd the electionary was held today I think Clinton's odds would be evem higher, so I'd say the now cast is doing its job.

If you don't want to know what the election would be like if held today, ignore the nowcast.
Click to expand...

I enjoy the nowcast for what it is, I just think it's important to have perspective on its function, because the election is not being held today. As far as polling data goes it's more of a "just for fun" feature to me. That number is hysterical to me given where we were, what, two weeks ago? Not even that? What a race this has been.
 
M

Munin

Member
Even if Trump does not win, he has already won. He is far from a competent politician but the effect he has had on political discourse is irreversible. No longer are people with non-liberal viewpoints afraid to speak up, the most militant of liberals have shown their true colors as far as their thinly veiled contempt for differing opinions and democracy as a whole goes (even up to the point of committing violence), media biases have been exposed, both parties were caught with their pants down, and skepticism towards establishment politicans is at an all time high.

Thank you Donald Trump.
 
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