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[Nivash]

I didn't remember that I read about it in this thread. I'd like to ask you, guys. What is your opinion of the russian journalists who get killed in Dobass? There were so far 4 russian journalists killed plus one Italian. Do you think that they were also "out of line" and Ukraine forces acted as they should to act, killing these five journalists?

Regrettable and tragic at the very least. Depending on how they died, it could be worse. Journalists enjoy the same protections as any other civilian. If any of them were intentionally killed with full knowledge that they were civilians it's a war crime. Pretty simple. You can't really be "out of line" as a civilian unless you start to take up espionage, sabotage or become a partisan. But then again you aren't exactly a civilian anymore at that point.

But I do stress that it depends on the circumstances. If they were killed while acting like Graham Philips in that video on the last thread - riding around on a separatist tank in full camo, looking exactly like a combatant - I don't think anyone could be at fault. That's the risk of being an embedded journalist.

 

[Outcome]

Should not happen, but where were you when Separatists held a female journalist hostage?

http://time.com/69910/ukraine-separatists-take-prisoners/

First. It was on the battlefield and not at the summit in the neutral country. Second. Ukrainian forces had gone further and killed 4 russian and 1 italian journalist in Donbass so far..

Or when the Russian deputy speaker ordered his aides to "violently rape" a pregnant journalist after she asked him a question about Ukraine?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...iolently-rape-pregnant-journalist-on-live-tv/

This guy Zhirinovskiy sometimes is kinda political clown. For this rape order he was thoroughly criticized all over russian TV. He is just phycho sometimes. E.g. when US bombed Iraq, he demanded from US to stop bombing and to collaborate with Russia and together bomb Georgia. This rape order was of the same kind. Later on he apologized: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAt1G-JthPU

Regrettable and tragic at the very least. Depending on how they died, it could be worse. Journalists enjoy the same protections as any other civilian. If any of them were intentionally killed with full knowledge that they were civilians it's a war crime. Pretty simple. You can't really be "out of line" as a civilian unless you start to take up espionage, sabotage or become a partisan. But then again you aren't exactly a civilian anymore at that point.

But I do stress that it depends on the circumstances. If they were killed while acting like Graham Philips in that video on the last thread - riding around on a separatist tank in full camo, looking exactly like a combatant - I don't think anyone could be at fault. That's the risk of being an embedded journalist.

Fair enough.

 

[chadskin]

fpleitgenCNN: Pushilin: 'If #Ukraine makes a move towards NATO, we will break off relations with Kiev.'

https://twitter.com/fpleitgencnn/status/567312558118666240

Pushilin is "the self-declared Chairman of the Supreme Soviet (Speaker of parliament) of the Donetsk People's Republic, and therefore, under the draft Constitution adopted on May 15, the self-declared republic's head of state" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Pushilin).

edit: Oh, Pushilin reportedly resigned in July last year as the head of state of the DPR and moved to Moscow but apparently he's back in Donetsk again. He's now described as an "official representative" and the "deputy head of the National Council of Donetsk Republic" by pro-Russian websites.

 

[Engell]

Ukrainian forces had gone further and killed 4 russian and 1 italian journalist in Donbass so far..

I do hope you know that weapons generally do not have a don't kill journalist button.
And especially the Russian journalist have had a busy time being very close to the action standing next to grads, tanks and soldiers firing their weapons against Ukrainian forces.
If you are in/near a battlezone there is a risk, if you are at the front line there is a bigger risk.

Its is ofc. regrettable that they died

 

[Nivash]

OK, let's quickly lay this whole journalist thing to rest for now. The Committee to Protect Journalists seem to have good summary:

- Andrei Stenin (Photojournalist; Rossiya Segodnya). Disappeared August 6th. Fate unknown. Possibly identified as one of three charred corpses in a burned car near Snizhne. Unknown attackers, unsubstantiated allegations levied at the 79th Airborne Brigade by Rossiya Segodnya.

- Anatoly Klyan (Cameraman, Pervy Kanal). Killed June 30th. Told by separatists that they would take him to a Ukrainian army base that had surrendered in a bus trip with other noncombatants (said unit had not actually surrendered). Bus was fired at on arrival. Bus was driven by a uniformed separatist and lacked press insignia. Klyan died at a local hospital from abdominal bullet wounds. He was not wearing body armor at the time. DPR denied organizing the bus trip. Investigation opened by Ukrainian regional prosecutors.

- Igor Kornelyuk (Correspondent; VGTRK) and Anton Voloshin (Sound Engineer, VGTRK). Killed June 17th. Were walking with separatists at an improvised checkpoint near Metallist, came under mortar fire. Neither were wearing body armor. Voloshin killed instantly, Kornelyuk died during surgery after being taken to a local hospital by separatists. Unknown attackers (but likely Ukrainian Army or volunteer units). President Poroshenko called for a thorough investigation.

- Andrea Rochelli (Photojournalist; freelancer). Killed May 24th. Traveled in car that came under attack outside Sloviansk, killed by mortar fire while taking cover. Unknown attackers.

That should speak for itself, but from the looks of it only Stenin and Rochelli could have been killed intentionally. Kornelyuk and Voloshin were killed by indirect fire and Klyan was killed incidentally from the fire at the bus. Of course, possibly doesn't mean probably or likely. But that's where things stand.

 

[Yamauchi]

Vice has posted an article -- Escape from Debaltseve: How One Convoy Made It Out of Ukraine's Besieged City -- https://news.vice.com/article/escap...-convoy-made-it-out-of-ukraines-besieged-city

Apparently Poroshenko has abandoned his troops in Debaltsevo.

 

[Nivash]

Vice has posted an article -- Escape from Debaltseve: How One Convoy Made It Out of Ukraine's Besieged City -- https://news.vice.com/article/escap...-convoy-made-it-out-of-ukraines-besieged-city

Apparently Poroshenko has abandoned his troops in Debaltsevo.

"Abandoned" might be a strong word. They're cut off, can't get out due to the minefields and kill-zones and can't be relieved because the Ukrainian Military seems to lack the strength to break the siege. The article said as much. I'm sure they feel abandoned, but that's hardly surprising.

 

[Yamauchi]

"Abandoned" might be a strong word. They're cut off, can't get out due to the minefields and kill-zones and can't be relieved because the Ukrainian Military seems to lack the strength to break the siege. The article said as much. I'm sure they feel abandoned, but that's hardly surprising.

Then the more pressing question is why he left UA troops in Debaltsevo while it was being surrounded if he had no way of rescuing them. The same events transpired in Ilovaisk and at the Donetsk airport.

 

[pants]

Then the more pressing question is why he left UA troops in Debaltsevo while it was being surrounded if he had no way of rescuing them. The same events transpired in Ilovaisk and at the Donetsk airport.

It's not hard to propose a likely reason. With a ceasefire incoming, you'd be in a stronger position negotiation wise if you're the current occupying force

 

[Resident_UA]

February 3rd (not true at the time):

Regrettably, it appears the encirclement of Debaltsevo by the Novorossian Armed Forces is complete and that a blood-bath may now ensue.

This war is spiraling out of control. With 'mobilizations' on both sides, we could soon see hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting a traditional land war (as far as casualties are concerned, the worst kind) in eastern Ukraine.

February 16th:

Then the more pressing question is why he left UA troops in Debaltsevo while it was being surrounded if he had no way of rescuing them. The same events transpired in Ilovaisk and at the Donetsk airport.

Is there some sort narrative you are trying to build?

They are holding Debaltseve for political reasons, which I feel is stupid thing to do. Not sure what point you are making, especially considering your post from 2 weeks ago...

 

[Nivash]

Then the more pressing question is why he left UA troops in Debaltsevo while it was being surrounded if he had no way of rescuing them. The same events transpired in Ilovaisk and at the Donetsk airport.

I mentioned it in a previous post - I'm not sure why the UAF keeps getting stuck in kettles. But I obviously don't think it's malice as much as incompetence or lack of resources (why would they keep getting their troops killed willingly?) It could be tons of reasons: UAF strategic commanders not realizing it in time or making decisions in time, strategic commanders not having the necessary intel, issues with communications between strategic and tactical commanders, lack of unit cohesion, lack of unit mobility...

And in any case I seriously doubt Poroshenko has anything whatsoever to do with that. If he's even remotely sane he's leaving the military decisions to the military personnel.

 

[MysticX]

I mentioned it in a previous post - I'm not sure why the UAF keeps getting stuck in kettles. But I obviously don't think it's malice as much as incompetence or lack of resources (why would they keep getting their troops killed willingly?) It could be tons of reasons: UAF strategic commanders not realizing it in time or making decisions in time, strategic commanders not having the necessary intel, issues with communications between strategic and tactical commanders, lack of unit cohesion, lack of unit mobility...

And in any case I seriously doubt Poroshenko has anything whatsoever to do with that. If he's even remotely sane he's leaving the military decisions to the military personnel.

or the fact the UAF is strechted thin across the country and for them it´s hard to coordinate a spot to concentrate on when their aggressor seems to be of a much bigger force, hence all the land they are grabbing so quickly

 

[Nivash]

or the fact the UAF is strechted thin across the country and for them it´s hard to coordinate a spot to concentrate on when their aggressor seems to be of a much bigger force, hence all the land they are grabbing so quickly

Sure, that's the root cause. But they should still be able to retreat in proper order when the situation calls for it and form a new defensive line if they're still functioning as a coherent army. I'm not getting the impression that they are. Between the difficulty of coordinating irregular and regular troops, outright lack of troops and equipment, military, economical and industrial exhaustion as well as (I presume) lack of intelligence they seem to have become dangerously slow and inflexible.

This is what the old Soviet mechanized doctrine lives for. Bottle up a numerically superior enemy in strongholds, pound him with indirect fire and then bypass and encircle him and boil the kettle while heavy anti-air support keeps his air force at bay. We're just lucky that unlike the USSR the rebels don't have an air force themselves or any real armored battalions to act as spearheads. So we're just getting a small scale, slow-motion reenactment of a Soviet invasion of Europe (and with less nukes) rather than a look at the real thing. But if Russia ever decides to step in, we'll get that too.

EDIT: Not an invasion of Europe obviously, I meant a real showcase of the Russian doctrine at work with all services involved

 

[chadskin]

Pro-Kremlin Rally Organizers Expect Over 10,000 People at Downtown March

The Anti-Maidan leadership said Monday that the organization is prepared to pay fines if more than the permitted 10,000 people show up to a march in Moscow on Saturday, the Vzglyad newspaper reported.

The pro-Kremlin march is being held in opposition to the pro-Western government that took power in Ukraine last year through the so-called Maidan protests in central Kiev.

A week later — on Sunday, March 1 — opposition leader Alexei Navalny plans to hold a march of 10 times as many people down Tverskaya Ulitsa, Moscow's main street. Navalny and an associate, Nikolai Lyaskin, were detained by police on Sunday as they handed out fliers for the march at a Moscow metro station.

Lyaskin said Monday on Twitter that a formal application to conduct the march, titled "Spring," had been submitted to City Hall. It is against the law to hold public rallies in Moscow without prior consent by the city authorities.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/516018.html

The Navalny march - and the Kremlin's reaction - is one to watch in the upcoming days and weeks. It's a safe bet that the City Hall will deny their consent to the rally, the question is if (a sizable amount of) people will still flock to the march regardless and how the police will react if they do.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Then the more pressing question is why he left UA troops in Debaltsevo while it was being surrounded if he had no way of rescuing them. The same events transpired in Ilovaisk and at the Donetsk airport.

An even more pressing question is where a state that did not exist 12 months ago is getting all this state of the art military hardware and trained manpower (even on weapons not in use outside Russia) to carry out such an encirclement.

 

[Oriel]

Seems the non existent ceasefire is now dead, with the "rebels" refusing to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreement in the Debaltseve pocket. Time for the EU and US to massively ramp up sanctions on Russia to the point their currency will be only useful as toilet paper. We need to economically destroy the bastards!

 

[Vizzeh]

Seems the non existent ceasefire is now dead, with the "rebels" refusing to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreement in the Debaltseve pocket. Time for the EU and US to massively ramp up sanctions on Russia to the point their currency will be only useful as toilet paper. We need to economically destroy the bastards!

That is not going to be an appropriate reaction, the more likely one is the arming of the Ukrainians with US weaponry, of which i'm sure Senator Inhofe is preparing his photoshop & Slideshow as we speak.

There are claims of fire on both sides anyway.

 

[chadskin]

EU breaks taboo on 'Russian forces in Ukraine'

The EU has broken its taboo on referring to Russian forces in east Ukraine in its official documents.

It said in its Official Journal on Monday (16 February) that Russian deputy defence minister Anatoly Antonov is being added to its blacklist because he is “involved in supporting the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine”.

It listed first deputy defence minister Arkady Bakhin for the same reason.
It also listed Andrei Kartapolov, a senior Russian military commander, for being “involved in shaping and implementing the military campaign of the Russian forces in Ukraine”.

The texts in the legal gazette were signed off by the EU’s foreign relations chief, Federica Mogherini, who has, until now, with the exception of Russia-annexed Crimea, studiously avoided any reference to Russian armed forces being active in Ukraine.

The last time EU foreign ministers published a formal statement on the conflict, on 29 January, they also used circumlocutions, speaking of: “evidence of continued and growing support given to the separatists by Russia, which underlines Russia's responsibility”.

For her part, Mogherini’s spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic, told EUobserver the language in the Official Journal is not an accident.

She noted it reflects “mounting evidence, underlining Russia’s responsibility” for the conflict, as discussed by foreign ministers on 29 January.

https://euobserver.com/foreign/127667

Could mark a serious shift in how the EU will deal with Russia going forward.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Seems the non existent ceasefire is now dead, with the "rebels" refusing to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreement in the Debaltseve pocket. Time for the EU and US to massively ramp up sanctions on Russia to the point their currency will be only useful as toilet paper. We need to economically destroy the bastards!

Oriel

world war 3 would be so uguu~

(Today, 02:44 PM)

Spoiler

kappa

But seriously though, there's not much more to sanction that wouldn't hurt the European economy very nearly as hard as Russia's. I think that at this point we (the US) need to start looking into arming Ukraine.

 

[ICKE]

Russian TV shows how Zakharchenko taunts captured Ukrainian soldiers near Debaltseve but decides to let them live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69TZWchxB-Q

 

[Fiktion]

But seriously though, there's not much more to sanction that wouldn't hurt the European economy very nearly as hard as Russia's. I think that at this point we (the US) need to start looking into arming Ukraine.

The sanctions are already hurting Europe a lot, which is why there are many EU countries opposed to them. The sanctions have only been effective so far because the US and EU have coordinated them together.

What has been most remarkable so far is the extent to which the European countries and the US have worked together on putting together and maintaining a sanctions regime against Russia, even though it could easily be argued that sanctions cost the US little, but hurt Europe a great deal.

Putin has given the European diplomats nothing so far. The longer that goes on, the tougher Germany and the rest will have to be. When Obama arms the Ukrainians it will be with European support, either tacit or overt.

 

[Oriel]

Oriel

world war 3 would be so uguu~

(Today, 02:44 PM)

Spoiler

kappa

Sanctions on Russia aren't going to start WWIII despite what some lunatics might claim.

But seriously though, there's not much more to sanction that wouldn't hurt the European economy very nearly as hard as Russia's. I think that at this point we (the US) need to start looking into arming Ukraine.

There's still plenty of sanctions worth exploring, like shutting out the entire Russian banking industry from the global financial system. Or seizing all overseas assets of members of the Duma who support Putin's actions in Ukraine. The sanctions up until now are quite timid, there's still scope to ramp them up.

Oh, and Russia is almost entirely reliant on oil and gas exports to Europe. They need us, we don't need them.

As for arming the Yukies that should have been done long ago. And not small arms and body jackets but heavy weaponry like M1's and fighter jets to replace all that Soviet era shite.

 

[Nivash]

Sanctions on Russia aren't going to start WWIII despite what some lunatics might claim.


There's still plenty of sanctions worth exploring, like shutting out the entire Russian banking industry from the global financial system. Or seizing all overseas assets of members of the Duma who support Putin's actions in Ukraine. The sanctions up until now are quite timid, there's still scope to ramp them up.

Agreed on that, but seizing the property of Russian citizen on what is legally speaking political grounds is going to be a bitch to make even remotely legal. Not to mention that the Duma would interpret it as an extremely hostile act.

Oh, and Russia is almost entirely reliant on oil and gas exports to Europe. They need us, we don't need them.

Uh yeah, we kinda do. Russia is Europe's largest source of fossil fuels. Cut that line and Europe enters an energy crisis the day after and in a very near future an economical crisis that would make the 2007 crisis appear positively docile. The EU would never agree to that.

As for arming the Yukies that should have been done long ago. And not small arms and body jackets but heavy weaponry like M1's and fighter jets to replace all that Soviet era shite.

Not happening in a million years. Ignoring the fact that properly training crews would take months, the UAF have been losing equipment left and right since this conflict began. The only outcome would be state-of-the-art NATO equipment ending up in Russia and China for reverse engineering. Oh, and escalating the proxy war to that degree could easily trigger a Russian invasion of Ukraine to preempt what they would believe to be a run-up to a NATO invasion.

EDIT:

Russian TV shows how Zakharchenko taunts captured Ukrainian soldiers near Debaltseve but decides to let them live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69TZWchxB-Q

Jesus, how the hell does that even work as propaganda? Unless you're at the point where you've completely dehumanised Ukrainians they come off as monsters. Also, if anyone wonders, yes. Mock executions are illegal as fuck, the ICTR and UNHRC consider them to be torture. More fodder for the trials for crimes against humanity that will probably never actually be allowed to take place.

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Latest russian troll bs. Russia had been secretly dedelivering arms to ukraine between 2010-2013.

Because that doesnt break a few treaties.

It's hilariously transparent and sad at the same time.

 

[Kabouter]

Latest russian troll bs. Russia had been secretly dedelivering arms to ukraine between 2010-2013.

Because that doesnt break a few treaties.

It's hilariously transparent and sad at the same time.

And all the new officially Russia-only equipment was stored at bases in the Donbass?

 

[SymbiantXenos]

And all the new officially Russia-only equipment was stored at bases in the Donbass?

From the same magical factory that churns out tanks and ammo.

 

[Phantast2k]

Latest russian troll bs. Russia had been secretly dedelivering arms to ukraine between 2010-2013.

Because that doesnt break a few treaties.

It's hilariously transparent and sad at the same time.

Was about to post it, lmao..

https://twitter.com/yurybarmin

#HUGE

Spoiler

LIAR

 

[Kabouter]

So in the midst of an invasion, Ukraine specifically chooses not to use its most useful and modern equipment for vague propaganda reasons?

 

[Funky Papa]

Un-fucking-believable.

 

[Purkake4]

Seems a little late to bring that narrative in. Were all the spindoctors sleeping the last year?

 

[Nivash]

So in the midst of an invasion, Ukraine specifically chooses not to use its most useful and modern equipment for vague propaganda reasons?

Of course, haven't you noticed the pattern? Ukraine intentionally refuses to use its most potent weapons. Ukraine intentionally allows its solders to get trapped and killed. Ukraine intentionally bombs its own cities and civilians. The current Ukrainian government intentionally hired snipers to shoot the protesters who were on their side at Maidan. Hell, they probably even intentionally tricked Russia into annexing Crimea. It all makes sense! It's because... because... because...

because...

becau....

bec...

Hold on, I'll connect the dots any minute now! It's because...

...because aliens? I've got nothing.

 

[Engell]

Seems a little late to bring that narrative in. Were all the spindoctors sleeping the last year?

It is never to late for the trolls

 

[Phantast2k]

So in the midst of an invasion, Ukraine specifically chooses not to use its most useful and modern equipment for vague propaganda reasons?

In one word: Aliens.
None of the BS matters. In the real world we have:

1) direct reports of Russian military crossing into Ukraine by int. journos

2) Russian soldiers getting captured in Ukraine who according to Russian media got lost or are on vacation.

3) exclusively Russian military vehicles in Ukraine.

4) Russian military vehicles with markings of Russian military bases and transportation by Russian rail.

5) Russian military vehicles with the same fucking paint job and markings first in Russia, then in Ukraine.

One older example of 5:

Russian city of Rostov on the border with Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyr1rwS-YiY

Ukrainian road near Novoazovsk on the border with Russia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocfxP-lerAY

Why the flying fuck Western media still babbles on about Pro-Russian rebels and separatists is beyond me.

 

[Oriel]

Agreed on that, but seizing the property of Russian citizen on what is legally speaking political grounds is going to be a bitch to make even remotely legal. Not to mention that the Duma would interpret it as an extremely hostile act.

Wouldn't be the first time western countries have seized the assets of non citizens. Besides the Duma inteprets Obama sneezing in the vicinity of Putin as an act of war. They're full of nutters and maniacs who cannot be taken seriously.

Uh yeah, we kinda do. Russia is Europe's largest source of fossil fuels. Cut that line and Europe enters an energy crisis the day after and in a very near future an economical crisis that would make the 2007 crisis appear positively docile. The EU would never agree to that.

Europe imports roughly 35% of its oil from Russia. Russia exports almost entirely all of its oil and gas westwards. If we cut link from Russia it could replaced by US and Canadian shipments, along with indigineous sources like Shale. It wouldn't be easy, but it would be doable. And such an act would pretty much destroy Russia, hence why they fund anti fracking groups in Europe, all to ensure Europe remains tethered to Russian oil and gas.

Not happening in a million years. Ignoring the fact that properly training crews would take months, the UAF have been losing equipment left and right since this conflict began. The only outcome would be state-of-the-art NATO equipment ending up in Russia and China for reverse engineering. Oh, and escalating the proxy war to that degree could easily trigger a Russian invasion of Ukraine to preempt what they would believe to be a run-up to a NATO invasion.

You're forgetting one thing, Russia has already invaded Ukraine. Things can't get any worse, bar Russian tanks rolling through the streets of Kiev. Which would the absolute worst case outcome, one in which would likely see NATO absorbing as many non NATO countries in Europe as it could handle and US tank divisions parked right on the Russian border with the rest of Europe. Heavy arms shipments could work if done right, such as only providing it to rear guard units who have had sufficient training over many months.

As for reverse engineering US tech the Russians and Chinese have been doing that for decades. The F-35 didn't even need to be captured in order for the PLA to build it's own derivitiative, the J-20. They simply hacked into the computers of US aerospace and defence contractors and downloaded the schematics and designs.

EDIT:
Jesus, how the hell does that even work as propaganda? Unless you're at the point where you've completely dehumanised Ukrainians they come off as monsters. Also, if anyone wonders, yes. Mock executions are illegal as fuck, the ICTR and UNHRC consider them to be torture. More fodder for the trials for crimes against humanity that will probably never actually be allowed to take place.

Russia and its proxies don't care. They know their man at the UN will block any attempts to indict any "rebels" at the ICC.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Of course, haven't you noticed the pattern? Ukraine intentionally refuses to use its most potent weapons. Ukraine intentionally allows its solders to get trapped and killed. Ukraine intentionally bombs its own cities and civilians. The current Ukrainian government intentionally hired snipers to shoot the protesters who were on their side at Maidan. Hell, they probably even intentionally tricked Russia into annexing Crimea. It all makes sense! It's because... because... because...

because...

becau....

bec...

Hold on, I'll connect the dots any minute now! It's because...

...because aliens? I've got nothing.

Actually it's because that way they can force their FUKUS CIA NATO homosexual Nazi Israeli masters to openly intervene, which is the plan all along. All part of the International Bankers ultimate end goal in forcing poor Russia's hand into defending itself, thus drawing it into open war and crippling itself allowing NATO to invade and fulfil it's raison d'être of finishing what Hitler started.

The coup was the crown in the jewel of this scheme a quarter century in the making. Only Russia and the Golden Dawn and the FN and Jobbik and the FPO and PEGIDA can save Europe from imminent Fascism.

The stage is set.

Generalplan Ost 2: Drang Harder

 

[Oriel]

Was about to post it, lmao..

https://twitter.com/yurybarmin

#HUGE

Spoiler

LIAR

Makes perfect sense.

 

[Oriel]

Why the flying fuck Western media still babbles on about Pro-Russian rebels and separatists is beyond me.

Because some are. But they're nothing more than local militia's under the authority of the Russian Armed Forces.

 

[Syriel]

You guys joke about conflict, but who would be the real winner in an EU vs Russia or NATO vs Russia war?

China.

Russia's newest best friend (and energy buyer) will be the only one to benefit from any sort of conflict.

 

[Phantast2k]

Agreed on that, but seizing the property of Russian citizen on what is legally speaking political grounds is going to be a bitch to make even remotely legal. Not to mention that the Duma would interpret it as an extremely hostile act.

It happens all the time with small time dictators and their clans.

Uh yeah, we kinda do. Russia is Europe's largest source of fossil fuels. Cut that line and Europe enters an energy crisis the day after and in a very near future an economical crisis that would make the 2007 crisis appear positively docile. The EU would never agree to that.

Turning off oil or gas is absolutely not feasible for Russia, they would crumble in a few months.
And again, no they cannot turn their gas & oil on and off like the Saudis do. Their wells are not like that, they freeze. They can store the oil, but not gas, they'd have to burn it off. A completely suicidal move they'll never attempt.
EU is already reducing its dependency on Russian fuels and thanks to Putin that's going to accelerate now.

Not happening in a million years. Ignoring the fact that properly training crews would take months, the UAF have been losing equipment left and right since this conflict began. The only outcome would be state-of-the-art NATO equipment ending up in Russia and China for reverse engineering. Oh, and escalating the proxy war to that degree could easily trigger a Russian invasion of Ukraine to preempt what they would believe to be a run-up to a NATO invasion.

Javelins are not state of the art. Some 20-30 nations use them by now. Neither are TOWs. That's pretty much all Ukraine needs, Stingers too.
As for armored vehicles and planes? Just get some older Soviet stuff to Ukraine from Arab countries, or former Iron Curtain countries.
It's incredibly easy to make Donbass a death trap for Russian soldiers and an American president with guts would already have had supplied at least the anti-tank weapons.



They're also slowly moving towards formerly annexing Abkhazia:

There should be no borders between Russia and Abkhazia — Russian president’s aide

http://tass.ru/en/world/777951

New humanitarian aid convoy from Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPu1oVVSiTE
All that gasoline is just what civilians need right now!

/

Because some are. But they're nothing more than local militia's under the authority of the Russian Armed Forces.

Some does not constitute a majority. Reputable media outlets need to find a better term to describe them.

//
Video: Ukraine ceasefire 'unrealistic' as fighting continues - Telegraph

Americans Increasingly See Russia as Threat, Top U.S. Enemy

- Russia edges out North Korea as perceived top U.S. enemy
- Favorable ratings of Russia sink to 24%
- More Americans view Russian military power as critical threat

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Was about to post it, lmao..

https://twitter.com/yurybarmin

#HUGE

Spoiler

LIAR

Haha! Read the resulting conversation.

Un. Believe. Able.

 

[Xando]

You guys joke about conflict, but who would be the real winner in an EU vs Russia or NATO vs Russia war?

China.

Russia's newest best friend (and energy buyer) will be the only one to benefit from any sort of conflict.

China would be crying under their bed if Nato and Russia go to war. Their whole economy would breakdown. Imo putin knows he can't take on NATO. There is no scenario where putin would win a head on confrontation with Nato.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

I guess tanks are not considered heavy weapons by Russia

Russian Naval Infantry LARPers, I see.

 

[Engell]

Russian Naval Infantry LARPers, I see.

You just dont get it, Russian navy units comes with those imaginary new tanks Ukraine got from Russia

 

[Lubricus]

China would be crying under their bed if Nato and Russia go to war. Their whole economy would breakdown. Imo putin knows he can't take on NATO. There is no scenario where putin would win a head on confrontation with Nato.

Stalin might have. Dig in and fortify the Ural mountains. Stretch out NATO supply lines. Wait for winter.

 

[Purkake4]

Stalin might have. Dig in and fortify the Ural mountains. Stretch out NATO supply lines. Wait for winter.

That sounds awfully like a defeat. As previously discussed in this thread, there is no scenario where NATO would actually want to fight in Russia despite what all the WWII glory propaganda would have you believe. Shutting Russia down at any of their boarders would lead to a nice plausible deniability "not our tanks, just separatists here" with quick (and self-righteous, of course) peace talks.

There is a reason Russia is fighting its little proxy war.

 

[Xando]

Stalin might have. Dig in and fortify the Ural mountains. Stretch out NATO supply lines. Wait for winter.

Nato wouldn't push through to the Ural. If western russia falls Nato wouldn't push any further into asia (maybe the US into vladivostok to take out the russian pacific fleet ).

 

[maquiladora]

So according to popular Russian news media/propaganda tool LifeNews, the "militia" are saving the civilians of Debaltseve from "drunken dancing negros" with tanks looting their homes.

 

[Vizzeh]

Not sure I get this, what reason would Nato have to "invade"? I understand defence of Ukraine pf course, that is a no-brainer, as they would be defending against oppression (providing Russia were pushing past the pro-russian states), but Nato invading Russia, we would be lowering ourselves to their level, surely?

It's not a dick measuring contest, it is about achieving peace in the quickest way possible imo.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

Stalin might have. Dig in and fortify the Ural mountains. Stretch out NATO supply lines. Wait for winter.

When Stalin was alive the USSR wouldn't need to do that, it would be in a position of material and numerical superiority (roughly on par technologically) and thus on the offensive. It could very possibly have driven NATO into the Atlantic by the end of the first campaign season. Dropping A-bombs would probably be necessary to stop this from occurring.

OTOH if Stalin was in charge of Russia today, digging in at the Urals and waiting for winter isn't really a viable strategy. The technological landscape of today is very different to what it was in his day, and Russia has changed in general. Russia has been subject to negative population growth, and lost Ukraine, the Baltics, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the central Asian republics. It's <150 million people now, which is fewer than it had during WWII (~170mln on the eve of WWII). NATO is ~900 million people now. It is outmatched numerically, technologically, and financially. Stalling for time is only favorable to Russia if Russia can build a military sufficiently powerful to actually win. Stalling for time would, in reality, let NATO fully re-arm and drown Russia in a sea of war material the likes of which the world has never seen.

This is all moot, of course, since various NATO countries and Russia both possess significant nuclear arsenals, and they would not risk open war with each other for fear of this. And even if that wasn't true, nobody has the stomach for a major war at the moment anyway.

 

[Syriel]

Not sure I get this, what reason would Nato have to "invade"? I understand defence of Ukraine pf course, that is a no-brainer, as they would be defending against oppression (providing Russia were pushing past the pro-russian states), but Nato invading Russia, we would be lowering ourselves to their level, surely?

It's not a dick measuring contest, it is about achieving peace in the quickest way possible imo.

That's kind of the point. The idea is laughable, which is why it is amusing when anyone on the Russian side takes it seriously.

NATO doesn't give two shits about invading Russia. Never has, never will.

Putin keeps banging the "NATO WANTS TO INVADE RUSSIA" drum because...well Putin. He needs an enemy.

If the US/EU/NATO were to step up efforts in Ukraine, it would simply be to get the invading Russian forces out. The only one doing any invading here is Russia.